Modelling of urban sensible heat flux at multiple spatial scales : a demonstration using airborne hyperspectral imagery of Shanghai and a temperature–emissivity separation approach

Urbanization related alterations to the surface energy balance impact urban warming (‘heat islands’), the growth of the boundary layer, and many other biophysical processes. Traditionally, in situ heat flux measures have been used to quantify such processes, but these typically represent only a small local-scale area within the heterogeneous urban environment. For this reason, remote sensing approaches are very attractive for elucidating more spatially representative information. Here we use hyperspectral imagery from a new airborne sensor, the Operative Modular Imaging Spectrometer (OMIS), along with a survey map and meteorological data, to derive the land cover information and surface parameters required to map spatial variations in turbulent sensible heat flux (QH). The results from two spatially-explicit flux retrieval methods which use contrasting approaches and, to a large degree, different input data are compared for a central urban area of Shanghai, China: (1) the Local-scale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme (LUMPS) and (2) an Aerodynamic Resistance Method (ARM). Sensible heat fluxes are determined at the full 6 m spatial resolution of the OMIS sensor, and at lower resolutions via pixel aggregation and spatial averaging. At the 6 m spatial resolution, the sensible heat flux of rooftop dominated pixels exceeds that of roads, water and vegetated areas, with values peaking at ∼ 350 W m− 2, whilst the storage heat flux is greatest for road dominated pixels (peaking at around 420 W m− 2). We investigate the use of both OMIS-derived land surface temperatures made using a Temperature–Emissivity Separation (TES) approach, and land surface temperatures estimated from air temperature measures. Sensible heat flux differences from the two approaches over the entire 2 × 2 km study area are less than 30 W m− 2, suggesting that methods employing either strategy maybe practica1 when operated using low spatial resolution (e.g. 1 km) data. Due to the differing methodologies, direct comparisons between results obtained with the LUMPS and ARM methods are most sensibly made at reduced spatial scales. At 30 m spatial resolution, both approaches produce similar results, with the smallest difference being less than 15 W m− 2 in mean QH averaged over the entire study area. This is encouraging given the differing architecture and data requirements of the LUMPS and ARM methods. Furthermore, in terms of mean study QH, the results obtained by averaging the original 6 m spatial resolution LUMPS-derived QH values to 30 and 90 m spatial resolution are within ∼ 5 W m− 2 of those derived from averaging the original surface parameter maps prior to input into LUMPS, suggesting that that use of much lower spatial resolution spaceborne imagery data, for example from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) is likely to be a practical solution for heat flux determination in urban areas.

The sensitivity of the tropical circulation and Maritime Continent precipitation to climate model resolution

The dependence of the annual mean tropical precipitation on horizontal resolution is investigated in the atmospheric version of the Hadley Centre General Environment Model (HadGEM1). Reducing the grid spacing from about 350 km to 110 km improves the precipitation distribution in most of the tropics. In particular, characteristic dry biases over South and Southeast Asia including the Maritime Continent as well as wet biases over the western tropical oceans are reduced. The annual-mean precipitation bias is reduced by about one third over the Maritime Continent and the neighbouring ocean basins associated with it via the Walker circulation. Sensitivity experiments show that much of the improvement with resolution in the Maritime Continent region is due to the specification of better resolved surface boundary conditions (land fraction, soil and vegetation parameters) at the higher resolution. It is shown that in particular the formulation of the coastal tiling scheme may cause resolution sensitivity of the mean simulated climate. The improvement in the tropical mean precipitation in this region is not primarily associated with the better representation of orography at the higher resolution, nor with changes in the eddy transport of moisture. Sizeable sensitivity to changes in the surface fields may be one of the reasons for the large variation of the mean tropical precipitation distribution seen across climate models.

The role of dust in climate changes today, at the last glacial maximum and in the future.

Natural mineral aerosol (dust) is an active component of the climate system and plays multiple roles in mediating physical and biogeochemical exchanges between the atmosphere, land surface and ocean. Changes in the amount of dust in the atmosphere are caused both by changes in climate (precipitation, wind strength, regional moisture balance) and changes in the extent of dust sources caused by either anthropogenic or climatically induced changes in vegetation cover. Models of the global dust cycle take into account the physical controls on dust deflation from prescribed source areas (based largely on soil wetness and vegetation cover thresholds), dust transport within the atmospheric column, and dust deposition through sedimentation and scavenging by precipitation. These models successfully reproduce the first-order spatial and temporal patterns in atmospheric dust loading under modern conditions. Atmospheric dust loading was as much as an order-of-magnitude larger than today during the last glacial maximum (LGM). While the observed increase in emissions from northern Africa can be explained solely in terms of climate changes (colder, drier and windier glacial climates), increased emissions from other regions appear to have been largely a response to climatically induced changes in vegetation cover and hence in the extent of dust source areas. Model experiments suggest that the increased dust loading in tropical regions had an effect on radiative forcing comparable to that of low glacial CO2 levels. Changes in land-use are already increasing the dust loading of the atmosphere. However, simulations show that anthropogenically forced climate changes substantially reduce the extent and productivity of natural dust sources. Positive feedbacks initiated by a reduction of dust emissions from natural source areas on both radiative forcing and atmospheric CO2 could substantially mitigate the impacts of land-use changes, and need to be considered in climate change assessments.

Urban and agricultural soils: conflicts and trade-offs in the optimization of ecosystem services

On-going human population growth and changing patterns of resource consumption are increasing global demand for ecosystem services, many of which are provided by soils. Some of these ecosystem services are linearly related to the surface area of pervious soil, whereas others show non-linear relationships, making ecosystem service optimization a complex task. As limited land availability creates conflicting demands among various types of land use, a central challenge is how to weigh these conflicting interests and how to achieve the best solutions possible from a perspective of sustainable societal development. These conflicting interests become most apparent in soils that are the most heavily used by humans for specific purposes: urban soils used for green spaces, housing, and other infrastructure and agricultural soils for producing food, fibres and biofuels. We argue that, despite their seemingly divergent uses of land, agricultural and urban soils share common features with regards to interactions between ecosystem services, and that the trade-offs associated with decision-making, while scale- and context-dependent, can be surprisingly similar between the two systems. We propose that the trade-offs within land use types and their soil-related ecosystems services are often disproportional, and quantifying these will enable ecologists and soil scientists to help policy makers optimizing management decisions when confronted with demands for multiple services under limited land availability.

Cereal aphids and their natural enemies: responses to landscape composition and agri-environment schemes

There are potential conflicts between food security, biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services. Currently, there are still gaps in our understanding on the links between land use, biodiversity and ecosystem services; all have implications for sustainable agriculture. To improve food productivity in an ecologically friendly manner we should consider adapting current pest control techniques from being reliant on chemical means towards a more integrated approach. However, to do this, farmers and land owners require more information in order to make informed decisions. This brief review explores field level and landscape scale impacts on aphid control by their natural enemies. This will be done by exploring the effects of local field margin flower strips and two key landscape scale factors, winter wheat and lowland calcareous grasslands on aphids and their natural enemies. Research questions which need answering are discussed.

Reflexive stasis, scale reversal and the myth of modern cinema

This chapter looks at three films whose Portuguese urban settings offer a privileged ground for the re-evaluation of the classical-modern-postmodern categorisation with regard to cinema. They are The State of Things (Wim Wenders, 1982), Foreign Land (Walter Salles and Daniela Thomas, 1995) and Mysteries of Lisbon (Raúl Ruiz, 2010). In them, the city is the place where characters lose their bearings, names, identities, and where vicious circles, mirrors, replicas and mise-en-abyme bring the vertiginous movement that had characterised the modernist city of 1920s cinema to a halt. Curiously, too, it is the place where so-called postmodern aesthetics finally finds an ideal home in self-ironical tales that expose the film medium’s narrative shortcomings. Intermedial devices, whether Polaroid stills or a cardboard cut-out theatre, are then resorted to in order to turn a larger-than-life reality into framed, manageable narrative miniatures. The scaled-down real, however, turns out to be a disappointing simulacrum, a memory ersatz that unveils the illusory character of cosmopolitan teleology. In my approach, I start by examining the intertwined and transnational genesis of these films that resulted in three correlated visions of the end of history and of storytelling, typical of postmodern aesthetics. I move on to consider intermedia miniaturism as an attempt to stop time within movement, an equation that inevitably brings to mind the Deleuzian movement-time binary, which I revisit in an attempt to disentangle it from the classical-modern opposition. I conclude by proposing reflexive stasis and scale reversal as the common denominator across all modern projects, hence, perhaps, a more advantageous model than modernity to signify artistic and political values.

Detection of solar dimming and brightening effects on Northern Hemisphere river flow

Anthropogenic aerosols in the atmosphere have the potential to affect regional-scale land hydrology through solar dimming. Increased aerosol loading may have reduced historical surface evaporation over some locations, but the magnitude and extent of this effect is uncertain. Any reduction in evaporation due to historical solar dimming may have resulted in an increase in river flow. Here we formally detect and quantify the historical effect of changing aerosol concentrations, via solar radiation, on observed river flow over the heavily industrialized, northern extra-tropics. We use a state-of-the-art estimate of twentieth century surface meteorology as input data for a detailed land surface model, and show that the simulations capture the observed strong inter-annual variability in runoff in response to climatic fluctuations. Using statistical techniques, we identify a detectable aerosol signal in the observed river flow both over the combined region, and over individual river basins in Europe and North America. We estimate that solar dimming due to rising aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere around 1980 led to an increase in river runoff by up to 25% in the most heavily polluted regions in Europe. We propose that, conversely, these regions may experience reduced freshwater availability in the future, as air quality improvements are set to lower aerosol loading and solar dimming.

Terrestrial biosphere changes over the last 120 kyr and their impact on ocean δ 13C

A new global synthesis and biomization of long (>40 kyr) pollen-data records is presented, and used with simulations from the HadCM3 and FAMOUS climate models to analyse the dynamics of the global terrestrial biosphere and carbon storage over the last glacial–interglacial cycle. Global modelled (BIOME4) biome distributions over time generally agree well with those inferred from pollen data. The two climate models show good agreement in global net primary productivity (NPP). NPP is strongly influenced by atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations through CO2 fertilization. The combined effects of modelled changes in vegetation and (via a simple model) soil carbon result in a global terrestrial carbon storage at the Last Glacial Maximum that is 210–470 Pg C less than in pre-industrial time. Without the contribution from exposed glacial continental shelves the reduction would be larger, 330–960 Pg C. Other intervals of low terrestrial carbon storage include stadial intervals at 108 and 85 ka BP, and between 60 and 65 ka BP during Marine Isotope Stage 4. Terrestrial carbon storage, determined by the balance of global NPP and decomposition, influences the stable carbon isotope composition (δ13C) of seawater because terrestrial organic carbon is depleted in 13C. Using a simple carbon-isotope mass balance equation we find agreement in trends between modelled ocean δ13C based on modelled land carbon storage, and palaeo-archives of ocean δ13C, confirming that terrestrial carbon storage variations may be important drivers of ocean δ13C changes.

Pre-Columbian land use in the ring-ditch region of the Bolivian Amazon

The nature and extent of pre-Columbian (pre-1492 AD) human impact in Amazonia is a contentious issue. The Bolivian Amazon has yielded some of the most impressive evidence for large and complex pre-Columbian societies in the Amazon basin, yet there remains relatively little data concerning the land use of these societies over time. Palaeoecology, when integrated with archaeological data, has the potential to fill these gaps in our knowledge. We present a 6,000-year record of anthropogenic burning, agriculture and vegetation change, from an oxbow lake located adjacent to a pre-Columbian ring-ditch in north-east Bolivia (13°15’44” S, 63°42’37” W). Human occupation around the lake site is inferred from pollen and phytoliths of maize (Zea mays L.) and macroscopic charcoal evidence of anthropogenic burning. First occupation around the lake was radiocarbon dated to ~2500 years BP. The persistence of maize in the record from ~1850 BP suggests that it was an important crop grown in the ringditch region in pre-Columbian times, and abundant macroscopic charcoal suggests that pre-Columbian land management entailed more extensive burning of the landscape than the slash-and-burn agriculture practised around the site today. The site was occupied continuously until near-modern times, although there is evidence for a decline in agricultural intensity or change in land use strategy, and possible population decline, from ~600-500 BP. The long and continuous occupation, which predates the establishment of rainforest in the region, suggests that pre-Columbian land use may have had a significant influence on ecosystem development at this site over the last ~2000 years.

Separating heart and brain: on the reduction of physiological noise from multichannel functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) signals

Objective. Functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) is an emerging technique for the in vivo assessment of functional activity of the cerebral cortex as well as in the field of brain–computer interface (BCI) research. A common challenge for the utilization of fNIRS in these areas is a stable and reliable investigation of the spatio-temporal hemodynamic patterns. However, the recorded patterns may be influenced and superimposed by signals generated from physiological processes, resulting in an inaccurate estimation of the cortical activity. Up to now only a few studies have investigated these influences, and still less has been attempted to remove/reduce these influences. The present study aims to gain insights into the reduction of physiological rhythms in hemodynamic signals (oxygenated hemoglobin (oxy-Hb), deoxygenated hemoglobin (deoxy-Hb)). Approach. We introduce the use of three different signal processing approaches (spatial filtering, a common average reference (CAR) method; independent component analysis (ICA); and transfer function (TF) models) to reduce the influence of respiratory and blood pressure (BP) rhythms on the hemodynamic responses. Main results. All approaches produce large reductions in BP and respiration influences on the oxy-Hb signals and, therefore, improve the contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR). In contrast, for deoxy-Hb signals CAR and ICA did not improve the CNR. However, for the TF approach, a CNR-improvement in deoxy-Hb can also be found. Significance. The present study investigates the application of different signal processing approaches to reduce the influences of physiological rhythms on the hemodynamic responses. In addition to the identification of the best signal processing method, we also show the importance of noise reduction in fNIRS data.

Effects of past climate variability on fire and vegetation in the cerrãdo savanna of the Huanchaca Mesetta, NE Bolivia

Cerrãdo savannas have the greatest fire activity of all major global land-cover types and play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. During the 21st century, temperatures are projected to increase by ∼ 3 ◦C coupled with a precipitation decrease of ∼ 20 %. Although these conditions could potentially intensify drought stress, it is unknown how that might alter vegetation composition and fire regimes. To assess how Neotropical savannas responded to past climate changes, a 14 500-year, high-resolution, sedimentary record from Huanchaca Mesetta, a palm swamp located in the cerrãdo savanna in northeastern Bolivia, was analyzed with phytoliths, stable isotopes, and charcoal. A nonanalogue, cold-adapted vegetation community dominated the Lateglacial–early Holocene period (14 500–9000 cal yr BP, which included trees and C3 Pooideae and C4 Panicoideae grasses. The Lateglacial vegetation was fire-sensitive and fire activity during this period was low, likely responding to fuel availability and limitation. Although similar vegetation characterized the early Holocene, the warming conditions associated with the onset of the Holocene led to an initial increase in fire activity. Huanchaca Mesetta became increasingly firedependent during the middle Holocene with the expansion of C4 fire-adapted grasses. However, as warm, dry conditions, characterized by increased length and severity of the dry season, continued, fuel availability decreased. The establishment of the modern palm swamp vegetation occurred at 5000 cal yr BP. Edaphic factors are the first-order control on vegetation on the rocky quartzite mesetta. Where soils are sufficiently thick, climate is the second-order control of vegetation on the mesetta. The presence of the modern palm swamp is attributed to two factors: (1) increased precipitation that increased water table levels and (2) decreased frequency and duration of surazos (cold wind incursions from Patagonia) leading to increased temperature minima. Natural (soil, climate, fire) drivers rather than anthropogenic drivers control the vegetation and fire activity at Huanchaca Mesetta. Thus the cerrãdo savanna ecosystem of the Huanchaca Plateau has exhibited ecosystem resilience to major climatic changes in both temperature and precipitation since the Lateglacial period.

Recent progress in understanding and projecting regional and global mean sea-level change

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5’s assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003–2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993–2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likely range, indicating that there is a greater probability that sea level rise by 2100 will lie in this range with a corresponding decrease in the likelihood of an additional contribution of several tens of centimeters above the likely range. In view of the comparatively limited state of knowledge and understanding of rapid ice sheet dynamics, we continue to think that it is not yet possible to make reliable quantitative estimates of future GMSL rise outside the likely range. Projections of twenty-first century GMSL rise published since the AR5 depend on results from expert elicitation, but we have low confidence in conclusions based on these approaches. New work on regional projections and emergence of the anthropogenic signal suggests that the two commonly predicted features of future regional sea level change (the increasing tilt across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the dipole in the North Atlantic) are related to regional changes in wind stress and surface heat flux. Moreover, it is expected that sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing, particularly in regions of relatively low unforced variability such as the low-latitude Atlantic, will be detectable over most of the ocean by 2040. The east-west contrast of sea level trends in the Pacific observed since the early 1990s cannot be satisfactorily accounted for by climate models, nor yet definitively attributed either to unforced variability or forced climate change.

How remote are R&D labs? Distance factors and international innovative activities

This paper shows that value creation by multinational enterprises (MNEs) is the result of activities where geographic distance effects can be overcome. We submit that geographic distance has a relatively low impact on international research and development (R&D) investments, owing to the spiky nature of innovation, and to the unique ability of MNEs to absorb and transfer knowledge on a global scale. On the one hand, MNEs need to set up their labs as close as possible to specialized technology clusters where valuable knowledge is concentrated, largely regardless of distance from their home base. On the other, MNEs have historically developed technical and organizational competencies that enable them to transfer knowledge within their internal networks and across technology clusters at relatively low cost. Using data on R&D and manufacturing investments of 6320 firms in 59 countries, we find that geographic distance has a lower negative impact on the probability of setting up R&D than manufacturing plants. Furthermore, once measures of institutional proximity are accounted for, MNEs are equally likely to set up R&D labs in nearby or in more remote locations. This result is driven by MNEs based in Triad countries, whereas for non-Triad MNEs the effect of geographic distance on cross-border R&D is negative and significant.

Bayesian analysis of uncertainty in the GlobCover 2009 land cover product at climate model grid scale

Land cover data derived from satellites are commonly used to prescribe inputs to models of the land surface. Since such data inevitably contains errors, quantifying how uncertainties in the data affect a model’s output is important. To do so, a spatial distribution of possible land cover values is required to propagate through the model’s simulation. However, at large scales, such as those required for climate models, such spatial modelling can be difficult. Also, computer models often require land cover proportions at sites larger than the original map scale as inputs, and it is the uncertainty in these proportions that this article discusses. This paper describes a Monte Carlo sampling scheme that generates realisations of land cover proportions from the posterior distribution as implied by a Bayesian analysis that combines spatial information in the land cover map and its associated confusion matrix. The technique is computationally simple and has been applied previously to the Land Cover Map 2000 for the region of England and Wales. This article demonstrates the ability of the technique to scale up to large (global) satellite derived land cover maps and reports its application to the GlobCover 2009 data product. The results show that, in general, the GlobCover data possesses only small biases, with the largest belonging to non–vegetated surfaces. In vegetated surfaces, the most prominent area of uncertainty is Southern Africa, which represents a complex heterogeneous landscape. It is also clear from this study that greater resources need to be devoted to the construction of comprehensive confusion matrices.

The biogeophysical climatic impacts of anthropogenic land use change during the Holocene

The first agricultural societies were established around 10 ka BP and had spread across much of Europe and southern Asia by 5.5 ka BP with resultant anthropogenic deforestation for crop and pasture land. Various studies (e.g. Joos et al., 2004; Kaplan et al., 2011; Mitchell et al., 2013) have attempted to assess the biogeochemical implications for Holocene climate in terms of increased carbon dioxide and methane emissions. However, less work has been done to examine the biogeophysical impacts of this early land use change. In this study, global climate model simulations with Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3) were used to examine the biogeophysical effects of Holocene land cover change on climate, both globally and regionally, from the early Holocene (8 ka BP) to the early industrial era (1850 CE). Two experiments were performed with alternative descriptions of past vegetation: (i) one in which potential natural vegetation was simulated by Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics (TRIFFID) but without land use changes and (ii) one where the anthropogenic land use model Kaplan and Krumhardt 2010 (KK10; Kaplan et al., 2009, 2011) was used to set the HadCM3 crop regions. Snapshot simulations were run at 1000-year intervals to examine when the first signature of anthropogenic climate change can be detected both regionally, in the areas of land use change, and globally. Results from our model simulations indicate that in regions of early land disturbance such as Europe and south-east Asia detectable temperature changes, outside the normal range of variability, are encountered in the model as early as 7 ka BP in the June–July–August (JJA) season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2–3 ka BP. Areas outside the regions of land disturbance are also affected, with virtually the whole globe experiencing significant temperature changes (predominantly cooling) by the early industrial period. The global annual mean temperature anomalies found in our single model simulations were −0.22 at 1850 CE, −0.11 at 2 ka BP, and −0.03 °C at 7 ka BP. Regionally, the largest temperature changes were in Europe with anomalies of −0.83 at 1850 CE, −0.58 at 2 ka BP, and −0.24 °C at 7 ka BP. Large-scale precipitation features such as the Indian monsoon, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the North Atlantic storm track are also impacted by local land use and remote teleconnections. We investigated how advection by surface winds, mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies, and tropospheric stationary wave train disturbances in the mid- to high latitudes led to remote teleconnections.