Modelling Nd-isotopes with a coarse resolution ocean circulation model: Sensitivities to model parameters and source/sink distributions

The neodymium (Nd) isotopic composition (Nd) of seawater is a quasi-conservative tracer of water mass mixing and is assumed to hold great potential for paleoceanographic studies. Here we present a comprehensive approach for the simulation of the two neodymium isotopes 143Nd, and 144Nd using the Bern3D model, a low resolution ocean model. The high computational efficiency of the Bern3D model in conjunction with our comprehensive approach allows us to systematically and extensively explore the sensitivity of Nd concentrations and Nd to the parametrisation of sources and sinks. Previous studies have been restricted in doing so either by the chosen approach or by computational costs. Our study thus presents the most comprehensive survey of the marine Nd cycle to date. Our model simulates both Nd concentrations as well as Nd in good agreement with observations. Nd covaries with salinity, thus underlining its potential as a water mass proxy. Results confirm that the continental margins are required as a Nd source to simulate Nd concentrations and Nd consistent with observations. We estimate this source to be slightly smaller than reported in previous studies and find that above a certain magnitude its magnitude affects Nd only to a small extent. On the other hand, the parametrisation of the reversible scavenging considerably affects the ability of the model to simulate both, Nd concentrations and Nd. Furthermore, despite their small contribution, we find dust and rivers to be important components of the Nd cycle. In additional experiments, we systematically varied the diapycnal diffusivity as well as the Atlantic-to-Pacific freshwater flux to explore the sensitivity of Nd concentrations and its isotopic signature to the strength and geometry of the overturning circulation. These experiments reveal that Nd concentrations and Nd are comparatively little affected by variations in diapycnal diffusivity and the Atlantic-to-Pacific freshwater flux. In contrast, an adequate representation of Nd sources and sinks is crucial to simulate Nd concentrations and Nd consistent with observations. The good agreement of our results with observations paves the way for the evaluation of the paleoceanographic potential of Nd in further model studies.

Measurement of distributions sensitive to the underlying event in inclusive Z-boson production in pp collisions at √ s=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of charged-particle distributions sensitive to the properties of the underlying event is presented for an inclusive sample of events containing a Z-boson, decaying to an electron or muon pair. The measurement is based on data collected using the ATLAS detector at the LHC in proton–proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV with an integrated luminosity of 4.6fb−1. Distributions of the charged particle multiplicity and of the charged particle transverse momentum are measured in regions of azimuthal angle defined with respect to the Z-boson direction. The measured distributions are compared to similar distributions measured in jet events, and to the predictions of various Monte Carlo generators implementing different underlying event models.

Measurement of the electroweak production of dijets in association with a Z-boson and distributions sensitive to vector boson fusion in proton-proton collisions at √s = 8 TeV using the ATLAS detector

Measurements of fiducial cross sections for the electroweak production of two jets in association with a Z-boson are presented. The measurements are performed using 20.3 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data collected at a centre-of-mass energy of p s = 8TeV by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. The electroweak component is extracted by a fit to the dijet invariant mass distribution in a fiducial region chosen to enhance the electroweak contribution over the dominant background in which the jets are produced via the strong interaction. The electroweak cross sections measured in two fiducial regions are in good agreement with the Standard Model expectations and the background-only hypothesis is rejected with significance above the 5ơ level. The electroweak process includes the vector boson fusion production of a Z-boson and the data are used to place limits on anomalous triple gauge boson couplings. In addition, measurements of cross sections and differential distributions for inclusive Z-boson-plus-dijet production are performed in five fiducial regions, each with different sensitivity to the electroweak contribution. The results are corrected for detector effects and compared to predictions from the Sherpa and Powheg event generators.

Feryomerṭ ferḳlogṭ : from the opera Dr. Almasada

by A. Goldfaden. For violin arr. by Herman Fiedler

Feryomerṭ ferḳlogṭ. The "wandering jew" : from the opera Dr. Almasada

by A. Goldfaden. For piano arr. by Herman Fiedler

Constraining age distributions of groundwater from public supply wells in diverse hydrogeological settings in Scania, Sweden

Twenty-five public supply wells throughout the hydrogeologically diverse region of Scania, southern Sweden are subjected to environmental tracer analysis (³H–³He,⁴He, CFCs, SF₆ and for one well only also ⁸⁵Kr and ³⁹Ar) to study well and aquifer vulnerability and evaluate possibilities of groundwater age distribution assessment. We find CFC and SF₆ concentrations well above solubility equilibrium with modern atmosphere, indicating local contamination, as well as indications of CFC degradation. The tracer-specific complications considerably constrain possibilities for sound quantitative regional ground- water age distribution assessment and demonstrate the importance of initial qualitative assessment of tracer-specific reliability, as well a need for additional, complementary tracers (e.g. ⁸⁵Kr,³⁹Ar and potentially also ¹⁴C). Lumped parameter modelling yields credible age distribution assessments for representative wells in four type aquifers. Pollution vulnerability of the aquifer types was based on the selected LPM models and qualitative age characterisation. Most vulnerable are unconfined dual porosity and fractured bedrock aquifers, due to a large component of very young groundwater. Unconfined sedimentary aquifers are vulnerable due to young groundwater and a small pre-modern component. Less vulnerable are semi-confined sedimentary or dual-porosity aquifers, due to older age of the modern component and a larger pre-modern component. Confined aquifers appear least vulnerable, due an entirely pre-modern groundwater age distribution (recharged before 1963). Tracer complications aside, environmental tracer analyses and lumped parameter modelling aid in vulnerability assessment and protection of regional groundwater resources.

Materials properties from electron density distributions: Molecular magnetism and linear optical properties

The general goal of this thesis is correlating observable properties of organic and metal-organic materials with their ground-state electron density distribution. In a long-term view, we expect to develop empirical or semi-empirical approaches to predict materials properties from the electron density of their building blocks, thus allowing to rationally engineering molecular materials from their constituent subunits, such as their functional groups. In particular, we have focused on linear optical properties of naturally occurring amino acids and their organic and metal-organic derivatives, and on magnetic properties of metal-organic frameworks. For analysing the optical properties and the magnetic behaviour of the molecular or sub-molecular building blocks in materials, we mostly used the more traditional QTAIM partitioning scheme of the molecular or crystalline electron densities, however, we have also investigated a new approach, namely, X-ray Constrained Extremely Localized Molecular Orbitals (XC-ELMO), that can be used in future to extracted the electron densities of crystal subunits. With the purpose of rationally engineering linear optical materials, we have calculated atomic and functional group polarizabilities of amino acid molecules, their hydrogen-bonded aggregates and their metal-organic frameworks. This has enabled the identification of the most efficient functional groups, able to build-up larger electric susceptibilities in crystals, as well as the quantification of the role played by intermolecular interactions and coordinative bonds on modifying the polarizability of the isolated building blocks. Furthermore, we analysed the dependence of the polarizabilities on the one-electron basis set and the many-electron Hamiltonian. This is useful for selecting the most efficient level of theory to estimate susceptibilities of molecular-based materials. With the purpose of rationally design molecular magnetic materials, we have investigated the electron density distributions and the magnetism of two copper(II) pyrazine nitrate metal-organic polymers. High-resolution X-ray diffraction and DFT calculations were used to characterize the magnetic exchange pathways and to establish relationships between the electron densities and the exchange-coupling constants. Moreover, molecular orbital and spin-density analyses were employed to understand the role of different magnetic exchange mechanisms in determining the bulk magnetic behaviour of these materials. As anticipated, we have finally investigated a modified version of the X-ray constrained wavefunction technique, XC-ELMOs, that is not only a useful tool for determination and analysis of experimental electron densities, but also enables one to derive transferable molecular orbitals strictly localized on atoms, bonds or functional groups. In future, we expect to use XC-ELMOs to predict materials properties of large systems, currently challenging to calculate from first-principles, such as macromolecules or polymers. Here, we point out advantages, needs and pitfalls of the technique. This work fulfils, at least partially, the prerequisites to understand materials properties of organic and metal-organic materials from the perspective of the electron density distribution of their building blocks. Empirical or semi-empirical evaluation of optical or magnetic properties from a preconceived assembling of building blocks could be extremely important for rationally design new materials, a field where accurate but expensive first-principles calculations are generally not used. This research could impact the community in the fields of crystal engineering, supramolecular chemistry and, of course, electron density analysis.

Cold-Water Coral Distributions in the Drake Passage Area from Towed Camera Observations - Initial Interpretations

Seamounts are unique deep-sea features that create habitats thought to have high levels of endemic fauna, productive fisheries and benthic communities vulnerable to anthropogenic impacts. Many seamounts are isolated features, occurring in the high seas, where access is limited and thus biological data scarce. There are numerous seamounts within the Drake Passage (Southern Ocean), yet high winds, frequent storms and strong currents make seafloor sampling particularly difficult. As a result, few attempts to collect biological data have been made, leading to a paucity of information on benthic habitats or fauna in this area, particularly those on primarily hard-bottom seamounts and ridges. During a research cruise in 2008 six locations were examined (two on the Antarctic margin, one on the Shackleton Fracture Zone, and three on seamounts within the Drake Passage), using a towed camera with onboard instruments to measure conductivity, temperature, depth and turbidity. Dominant fauna and bottom type were categorized from 200 randomized photos from each location. Cold-water corals were present in high numbers in habitats both on the Antarctic margin and on the current swept seamounts of the Drake Passage, though the diversity of orders varied. Though the Scleractinia (hard corals) were abundant on the sedimented margin, they were poorly represented in the primarily hard-bottom areas of the central Drake Passage. The two seamount sites and the Shackleton Fracture Zone showed high numbers of stylasterid (lace) and alcyonacean (soft) corals, as well as large numbers of sponges. Though data are preliminary, the geological and environmental variability (particularly in temperature) between sample sites may be influencing cold-water coral biogeography in this region. Each area observed also showed little similarity in faunal diversity with other sites examined for this study within all phyla counted. This manuscript highlights how little is understood of these isolated features, particularly in Polar regions.

Seasonal Distributions of Satellite-Measured Phytoplankton Pigment Concentration Along the Chilean Coast

Five years (1979-1983) of Coastal Zone Color Scanner satellite ocean color data are used to examine seasonal patterns of phytoplankton pigment concentration along the Chilean coast from 20 degrees S to 45 degrees S. Four kilometer resolution, 2-4 day composites document the presence of filaments of elevated pigment concentration extending offshore throughout the study area, with maximum offshore extension at higher latitudes. In three years, 1979, 1981, and 1983, sufficient data exist in monthly composites to allow recreation of portions of the seasonal cycle. Data in 1979 are the most complete. Near-shore concentrations and cross-shelf extension of pigment concentrations in 1979 are maximum in austral winter throughout the study area and minimum in summer. Available data from 1981 and 1983 are consistent with this temporal pattern but with concentrations approximately double those of 1979. Seasonal, spatial patterns within 10 km of shore and 50 km offshore indicate a latitudinal discontinuity both in absolute concentration and in the magnitude of the seasonal cycle at approximately 33 degrees S in both 1979 and in the climatological time series. The discontinuity is strongest ill fall-winter and weakest in summer. South of this latitude, concentrations are relatively high (2-3 mg m(-3) in 1979), a strong seasonal cycle is present, and patterns 50 km offshore are correlated with those within 10 km of shore. North of 33 degrees S, concentrations are < 1.5 mg m(-3) (in 1979), and the seasonal cycle within 10 km of shore is present but much weaker and less obviously correlated with that 50 km offshore. The seasonal cycle of pigment concentrations is 180 degrees out of phase with monthly averaged upwelling favorable winds. Noncoincident Pathfinder sea surface temperature data show that over most latitudes, coastal low surface temperatures lag wind forcing by 1-2 months, but these too are out of phase with the pigment seasonal cycle. These data point to control of pigment patterns along the Chilean coast by the interaction of upwelling with circulation patterns unconnected to local wind forcing.

Use of Otolith Strontium:Calcium Ratios for Hindcasting Larval Cod Gadus Morhua Distributions Relative to Water Masses on Georges Bank

The concentration ratios of strontium to calcium in laboratory-reared larval cod otoliths are shown to be related to the water temperature (T) at the time of otolith precipitation. This relationship is curvilinear, and is best described by a simple exponential equation of the form (Sr/Ca x 1000 = a exp(-T/b). We show that when Sr/Ca elemental analyses are related to the daily growth increments in the larval otoliths, relative temperature histories of individual field-caught larvae can be reconstructed from the egg stage to the time of capture. We present preliminary examples of how such reconstructed temperature histories of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua larvae, collected on Georges Bank during April and May 1993, may be interpreted in relation to the broad-scale larval distributions and the hydrography of the Bank.

Distributions and Variability of Particulate Organic Matter in a Coastal Upwelling System

In this study we examined the spatial and temporal variability of particulate organic material (POM) off Oregon during the upwelling season. High-resolution vertical profiling of beam attenuation was conducted along two cross-shelf transects. One transect was located in a region where the shelf is relatively uniform and narrow (off Cascade Head (CH)); the second transect was located in a region where the shelf is shallow and wide (off Cape Perpetua (CP)). In addition, water samples were collected for direct analysis of chlorophyll, particulate organic carbon (POC), and particulate organic nitrogen (PON). Beam attenuation was highly correlated with POC and PON. Striking differences in distribution patterns and characteristics of POM were observed between CH and CP. Off CH, elevated concentrations of chlorophyll and POC were restricted to the inner shelf and were highly variable in time. The magnitude of the observed short-term temporal variability was of the same order as that of the seasonal variability reported in previous studies. Elevated concentrations of nondegraded chlorophyll and POM were observed near the bottom. Downwelling and rapid sinking are two mechanisms by which phytoplankton cells can be delivered to the bottom before being degraded. POM may be then transported across the shelf via the benthic nepheloid layer. Along the CP transect, concentrations of POM were generally higher than they were along the CH transect and extended farther across the shelf. Characteristics of surface POM, namely, C: N ratios and carbon: chlorophyll ratios, differed between the two sites. These differences can be attributed to differences in shelf circulation.

Pond-Breeding Amphibian Species Distributions in a Beaver-Modified Landscape, Acadia National Park, Mount Desert Island, Maine

In order to maintain pond-breeding amphibian species richness, it is important to understand how both natural and anthropogenic disturbances affect species assemblages and individual species distributions both at the scale of individual ponds and at a larger landscape scale. The goal of this project was to investigate what characteristics of ponds and the surrounding wetland landscape were most effective in predicting pond-breeding species richness and the individual occurrence of wood frog (Rana sylvatica), bullfrog (Rana catesbeiana) and pickerel frog (Rana palustris) breeding sites in a beaver-modified landscape and how this landscape has changed over time. The wetland landscape of Acadia National Park was historically modified by the natural disturbance cycles of beaver (Castor cazadensis), and since their reintroduction to the island in 1921, beaver have played a large role in creating and maintaining palustrine wetlands. In 2000 and 2001, I studied pond-breeding amphibian assemblages at 71 palustrine wetlands in Acadia National Park, Mount Desert Island, Maine. I determined breeding presence of 7 amphibian species and quantified 15 variables describing local pond conditions and characteristics of the wetland landscape. I developed a priori models to predict sites with high amphibian species and used model selection with Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to identify important variables. Single species models were also developed to predict wood frog, bullfrog and pickerel frogs breeding presence. The variables for wetland connectivity by stream corridors and the presence of beaver disturbance were the most effective variables to predict sites with high amphibian richness. Wood frog breeding was best predicted by local scale variables describing temporary, fishless wetlands and the absence of active beaver disturbance. Abandoned beaver sites provided wood frog breeding habitat (70%) in a similar proportion to that found in non beaver-influenced sites (79%). In contrast, bullfrog breeding presence was limited to active beaver wetlands with fish and permanent water, and 80% of breeding sites were large (≥2ha in size). Pickerel frog breeding site selection was predicted best by the connectivity of sites in the landscape by stream corridors. Models including the presence of beaver disturbance, greater wetland perimeter and greater depth were included in the confidence set of pickerel frog models but showed considerably less support. Analysis of historic aerial photographs showed an 89% increase in the total number of ponded wetlands available in the landscape between the years of 1944 and 1997. Beaver colonization generally converted forested wetlands and riparian areas to open water and emergent wetlands. Temporal colonization of beaver wetlands favored large sites low in the watersheds and sites that were impounded later were generally smaller, higher in the watershed, and more likely to be abandoned. These results suggest that beaver have not only increased the number of available breeding sites in the landscape for pond-breeding amphibians, but the resulting mosaic of active and abandoned beaver wetlands also provides suitable breeding habitat for species with differing habitat requirements.

Survival analysis of longevity in siblings

Do siblings of centenarians tend to have longer life spans? To answer this question, life spans of 184 siblings for 42 centenarians have been evaluated. Two important questions have been addressed in analyzing the sibling data. First, a standard needs to be established, to which the life spans of 184 siblings are compared. In this report, an external reference population is constructed from the U.S. life tables. Its estimated mortality rates are treated as baseline hazards from which the relative mortality of the siblings are estimated. Second, the standard survival models which assume independent observations are invalid when correlation within family exists, underestimating the true variance. Methods that allow correlations are illustrated by three different methods. First, the cumulative relative excess mortality between siblings and their comparison group is calculated and used as an effective graphic tool, along with the Product Limit estimator of the survival function. The variance estimator of the cumulative relative excess mortality is adjusted for the potential within family correlation using Taylor linearization approach. Second, approaches that adjust for the inflated variance are examined. They are adjusted one-sample log-rank test using design effect originally proposed by Rao and Scott in the correlated binomial or Poisson distribution setting and the robust variance estimator derived from the log-likelihood function of a multiplicative model. Nether of these two approaches provide correlation estimate within families, but the comparison with the comparison with the standard remains valid under dependence. Last, using the frailty model concept, the multiplicative model, where the baseline hazards are known, is extended by adding a random frailty term that is based on the positive stable or the gamma distribution. Comparisons between the two frailty distributions are performed by simulation. Based on the results from various approaches, it is concluded that the siblings of centenarians had significant lower mortality rates as compared to their cohorts. The frailty models also indicate significant correlations between the life spans of the siblings. ^

Henri Logé, Brustbild

Signatur des Originals: S 36/F01145

A multivariate frailty model for disease recurrences and survival

A multivariate frailty hazard model is developed for joint-modeling of three correlated time-to-event outcomes: (1) local recurrence, (2) distant recurrence, and (3) overall survival. The term frailty is introduced to model population heterogeneity. The dependence is modeled by conditioning on a shared frailty that is included in the three hazard functions. Independent variables can be included in the model as covariates. The Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate the posterior distributions of model parameters. The algorithm used in present application is the hybrid Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, which simultaneously updates all parameters with evaluations of gradient of log posterior density. The performance of this approach is examined based on simulation studies using Exponential and Weibull distributions. We apply the proposed methods to a study of patients with soft tissue sarcoma, which motivated this research. Our results indicate that patients with chemotherapy had better overall survival with hazard ratio of 0.242 (95% CI: 0.094 - 0.564) and lower risk of distant recurrence with hazard ratio of 0.636 (95% CI: 0.487 - 0.860), but not significantly better in local recurrence with hazard ratio of 0.799 (95% CI: 0.575 - 1.054). The advantages and limitations of the proposed models, and future research directions are discussed. ^