Improving QPF by blending techniques at the Meteorological Service of Catalonia

The current operational very short-term and short-term quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) at the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) is made by three different methodologies: Advection of the radar reflectivity field (ADV), Identification, tracking and forecasting of convective structures (CST) and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models using observational data assimilation (radar, satellite, etc.). These precipitation forecasts have different characteristics, lead time and spatial resolutions. The objective of this study is to combine these methods in order to obtain a single and optimized QPF at each lead time. This combination (blending) of the radar forecast (ADV and CST) and precipitation forecast from NWP model is carried out by means of different methodologies according to the prediction horizon. Firstly, in order to take advantage of the rainfall location and intensity from radar observations, a phase correction technique is applied to the NWP output to derive an additional corrected forecast (MCO). To select the best precipitation estimation in the first and second hour (t+1 h and t+2 h), the information from radar advection (ADV) and the corrected outputs from the model (MCO) are mixed by using different weights, which vary dynamically, according to indexes that quantify the quality of these predictions. This procedure has the ability to integrate the skill of rainfall location and patterns that are given by the advection of radar reflectivity field with the capacity of generating new precipitation areas from the NWP models. From the third hour (t+3 h), as radar-based forecasting has generally low skills, only the quantitative precipitation forecast from model is used. This blending of different sources of prediction is verified for different types of episodes (convective, moderately convective and stratiform) to obtain a robust methodology for implementing it in an operational and dynamic way.

Brain dynamics underlying training-induced improvement in suppressing inappropriate action.

Inhibitory control, a core component of executive functions, refers to our ability to suppress intended or ongoing cognitive or motor processes. Mostly based on Go/NoGo paradigms, a considerable amount of literature reports that inhibitory control of responses to "NoGo" stimuli is mediated by top-down mechanisms manifesting ∼200 ms after stimulus onset within frontoparietal networks. However, whether inhibitory functions in humans can be trained and the supporting neurophysiological mechanisms remain unresolved. We addressed these issues by contrasting auditory evoked potentials (AEPs) to left-lateralized "Go" and right NoGo stimuli recorded at the beginning versus the end of 30 min of active auditory spatial Go/NoGo training, as well as during passive listening of the same stimuli before versus after the training session, generating two separate 2 × 2 within-subject designs. Training improved Go/NoGo proficiency. Response times to Go stimuli decreased. During active training, AEPs to NoGo, but not Go, stimuli modulated topographically with training 61-104 ms after stimulus onset, indicative of changes in the underlying brain network. Source estimations revealed that this modulation followed from decreased activity within left parietal cortices, which in turn predicted the extent of behavioral improvement. During passive listening, in contrast, effects were limited to topographic modulations of AEPs in response to Go stimuli over the 31-81 ms interval, mediated by decreased right anterior temporoparietal activity. We discuss our results in terms of the development of an automatic and bottom-up form of inhibitory control with training and a differential effect of Go/NoGo training during active executive control versus passive listening conditions.

Dynamic properties of human brain structure: learning-related changes in cortical areas and associated fiber connections.

Recent findings in neuroscience suggest that adult brain structure changes in response to environmental alterations and skill learning. Whereas much is known about structural changes after intensive practice for several months, little is known about the effects of single practice sessions on macroscopic brain structure and about progressive (dynamic) morphological alterations relative to improved task proficiency during learning for several weeks. Using T1-weighted and diffusion tensor imaging in humans, we demonstrate significant gray matter volume increases in frontal and parietal brain areas following only two sessions of practice in a complex whole-body balancing task. Gray matter volume increase in the prefrontal cortex correlated positively with subject's performance improvements during a 6 week learning period. Furthermore, we found that microstructural changes of fractional anisotropy in corresponding white matter regions followed the same temporal dynamic in relation to task performance. The results make clear how marginal alterations in our ever changing environment affect adult brain structure and elucidate the interrelated reorganization in cortical areas and associated fiber connections in correlation with improvements in task performance.

Effects of differential taxation on factor accumulation and growth

In this paper we try to analyze the role of fiscal policy in fostering a higher participation of the different production factors in the human capital production sector in the long-run. Introducing a tax on physical capital and differentiating both a tax on raw labor wage and a tax on skills or human capital we also attempt to present a way to influence inequality as measured by the skill premium, thus trying to relate the increase in human capital with the decrease in income inequality. We will do that in the context of a non-scale growth model.The model here is capable to alter the shares of private factors devoted to each of the two production sectors, final output and human capital, and affect inequality in a different way according to the different tax changes. The simulation results derived in the paper show how a human capital (skills) tax cut, which could be interpreted as a reduction in progressivity, ends up increasing both the shares of labor and physical capital devoted to the production of knowledge and decreasing inequality. Moreover, a raw labor wage tax decrease, which could also be interpreted as an increase in the progressivity of the system, increases the share of labor devoted to the production of final output and increases inequality. Finally, a physical capital tax decrease reduces the share of physical capital devoted to the production of knowledge and allows for a lower inequality value. Nevertheless, none of the various types of taxes ends up changing the share of human capital in the knowledge production, which will deserve our future attention

Tax reforms and inequality: theoretical and empirical implications

In this paper we examine the effect of tax policy on the relationship between inequality and growth in a two-sector non-scale model. With non-scale models, the longrun equilibrium growth rate is determined by technological parameters and it is independent of macroeconomic policy instruments. However, this fact does not imply that fiscal policy is unimportant for long-run economic performance. It indeed has important effects on the different levels of key economic variables such as per capita stock of capital and output. Hence, although the economy grows at the same rate across steady states, the bases for economic growth may be different.The model has three essential features. First, we explicitly model skill accumulation, second, we introduce government finance into the production function, and we introduce an income tax to mirror the fiscal events of the 1980¿s and 1990¿s in the US. The fact that the non-scale model is associated with higher order dynamics enables it to replicate the distinctly non-linear nature of inequality in the US with relative ease. The results derived in this paper attract attention to the fact that the non-scale growth model does not only fit the US data well for the long-run (Jones, 1995b) but also that it possesses unique abilities in explaining short term fluctuations of the economy. It is shown that during transition the response of the relative simulated wage to changes in the tax code is rather non-monotonic, quite in accordance to the US inequality pattern in the 1980¿s and early 1990¿s.More specifically, we have analyzed in detail the dynamics following the simulation of an isolated tax decrease and an isolated tax increase. So, after a tax decrease the skill premium follows a lower trajectory than the one it would follow without a tax decrease. Hence we are able to reduce inequality for several periods after the fiscal shock. On the contrary, following a tax increase, the evolution of the skill premium remains above the trajectory carried on by the skill premium under a situation with no tax increase. Consequently, a tax increase would imply a higher level of inequality in the economy

Extending the Kuznets Curve

[cat] Les darreres dècades s’han caracteritzat per un intens augment de les desigualtats salarials a nivell mundial. Aquest article allarga la hipòtesi clàssica de la Corba de Kuznets per cobrir les economies post-industrials i tractar d’explicar aquest fenomen. Segons la hipòtesi de la Corba de Kuznets Allargada, les desigualtats salarials podrien evolucionar segons una corba en forma d’N. La U-inverida d’aquesta corba seria deguda al procés de canvi estructural que acompanya a un procés de industrialització. I l’extrem dret de la mateixa, associada al creixement explosiu de la formació de capital humà en les economies modernes i post-industrials. En aquest sentit, els principals candidats per explicar el recent augment de les desigualtats: el canvi tècnic esbiaixat a favor del treball qualificat, la globalització (comerç i migracions) i els factors institucionals, estarien ja incorporats en l’evolució de la composició de la força de treball en termes de qualificacions. La limitada evidència empírica sobre aquest tema, tendeix a donar suport a la Corba de Kuznets Allargada.

Effects of differential taxation on factor accumulation and growth

In this paper we try to analyze the role of fiscal policy in fostering a higher participation of the different production factors in the human capital production sector in the long-run. Introducing a tax on physical capital and differentiating both a tax on raw labor wage and a tax on skills or human capital we also attempt to present a way to influence inequality as measured by the skill premium, thus trying to relate the increase in human capital with the decrease in income inequality. We will do that in the context of a non-scale growth model.The model here is capable to alter the shares of private factors devoted to each of the two production sectors, final output and human capital, and affect inequality in a different way according to the different tax changes. The simulation results derived in the paper show how a human capital (skills) tax cut, which could be interpreted as a reduction in progressivity, ends up increasing both the shares of labor and physical capital devoted to the production of knowledge and decreasing inequality. Moreover, a raw labor wage tax decrease, which could also be interpreted as an increase in the progressivity of the system, increases the share of labor devoted to the production of final output and increases inequality. Finally, a physical capital tax decrease reduces the share of physical capital devoted to the production of knowledge and allows for a lower inequality value. Nevertheless, none of the various types of taxes ends up changing the share of human capital in the knowledge production, which will deserve our future attention

Tax reforms and inequality: theoretical and empirical implications

In this paper we examine the effect of tax policy on the relationship between inequality and growth in a two-sector non-scale model. With non-scale models, the longrun equilibrium growth rate is determined by technological parameters and it is independent of macroeconomic policy instruments. However, this fact does not imply that fiscal policy is unimportant for long-run economic performance. It indeed has important effects on the different levels of key economic variables such as per capita stock of capital and output. Hence, although the economy grows at the same rate across steady states, the bases for economic growth may be different.The model has three essential features. First, we explicitly model skill accumulation, second, we introduce government finance into the production function, and we introduce an income tax to mirror the fiscal events of the 1980¿s and 1990¿s in the US. The fact that the non-scale model is associated with higher order dynamics enables it to replicate the distinctly non-linear nature of inequality in the US with relative ease. The results derived in this paper attract attention to the fact that the non-scale growth model does not only fit the US data well for the long-run (Jones, 1995b) but also that it possesses unique abilities in explaining short term fluctuations of the economy. It is shown that during transition the response of the relative simulated wage to changes in the tax code is rather non-monotonic, quite in accordance to the US inequality pattern in the 1980¿s and early 1990¿s.More specifically, we have analyzed in detail the dynamics following the simulation of an isolated tax decrease and an isolated tax increase. So, after a tax decrease the skill premium follows a lower trajectory than the one it would follow without a tax decrease. Hence we are able to reduce inequality for several periods after the fiscal shock. On the contrary, following a tax increase, the evolution of the skill premium remains above the trajectory carried on by the skill premium under a situation with no tax increase. Consequently, a tax increase would imply a higher level of inequality in the economy

Rising to Greatness An Imperative for Improving Iowa’s Schools, 2011

In the early 1990s, the Cold War ended, Back to the Future III was in theaters, and Iowa led the nation in reading and mathematics. Times have changed. A decade into the 21st century, Iowa has conceded its place at the top. During the past 20 years, achievement trends illustrate Iowa’s slide from a national leader in PK-12 education to a national average―sometimes below average―performer as other states (and nations) have accelerated past the state. Iowa students’ futures are at risk. Collectively, Iowa students are not hitting the mark in mathematics and reading competency. Sure, Iowa has its share of super-achievers. But the mass of Iowa students—not just underprivileged or minority students, but many of the majority white, relatively affluent students as well—are falling short of what is needed to attain quality jobs, growing incomes, and secure livelihoods in today’s globally competitive world. The world has moved beyond the industrial age and information age and is now in the innovation age. Students must be armed not only with knowledge, but also with skills and insights needed to critically analyze and innovate. The pressing problems and grand opportunities the world faces require that many more people contribute as innovators and problem solvers, not order takers and implementers. Innovators will prosper. Order takers will stagnate. The days of an abundance of low-skill jobs have come to an end.

Statistical discrimination and employers' recruitment : Practices for low-skilled workers

This paper deals with the recruitment strategies of employers in the low-skilled segment of the labour market. We focus on low-skilled workers because they are overrepresented among jobless people and constitute the bulk of the clientele included in various activation and labour market programmes. A better understanding of the constraints and opportunities of interventions in this labour market segment may help improve their quality and effectiveness. On the basis of qualitative interviews with 41 employers in six European countries, we find that the traditional signals known to be used as statistical discrimination devices (old age, immigrant status and unemployment) play a somewhat reduced role, since these profiles are overrepresented among applicants for low skill positions. However, we find that other signals, mostly considered to be indicators of motivation, have a bigger impact in the selection process. These tend to concern the channel through which the contact with a prospective candidate is made. Unsolicited applications and recommendations from already employed workers emit a positive signal, whereas the fact of being referred by the public employment office is associated with the likelihood of lower motivation.

Del "know how" al poder: la metodologia d'avaluació d'intangibles empresarials en competència i la seva aplicació en un entorn oligopolístic

Sometimes, behind the entrepreneurial profit the degree of monopoly is concealed. What it occurs with the models of investments evaluation when the skill of the employer consists on having capacity to capture the regulator?

Effect of a governmentally-led physical activity program on motor skills in young children attending child care centers: a cluster randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of a governmentally-led center based child care physical activity program (Youp'la Bouge) on child motor skills.Patients and methods: We conducted a single blinded cluster randomized controlled trial in 58 Swiss child care centers. Centers were randomly selected and 1:1 assigned to a control or intervention group. The intervention lasted from September 2009 to June 2010 and included training of the educators, adaptation of the child care built environment, parental involvement and daily physical activity. Motor skill was the primary outcome and body mass index (BMI), physical activity and quality of life secondary outcomes. The intervention implementation was also assessed. RESULTS: At baseline, 648 children present on the motor test day were included (age 3.3 +/- 0.6, BMI 16.3 +/- 1.3 kg/m2, 13.2% overweight, 49% girls) and 313 received the intervention. Relative to children in the control group (n = 201), children in the intervention group (n = 187) showed no significant increase in motor skills (delta of mean change (95% confidence interval: -0.2 (-0.8 to 0.3), p = 0.43) or in any of the secondary outcomes. Not all child care centers implemented all the intervention components. Within the intervention group, several predictors were positively associated with trial outcomes: 1) free-access to a movement space and parental information session for motor skills 2) highly motivated and trained educators for BMI 3) free-access to a movement space and purchase of mobile equipment for physical activity (all p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: This "real-life" physical activity program in child care centers confirms the complexity of implementing an intervention outside a study setting and identified potentially relevant predictors that could improve future programs.Trial registration: Trial registration number: clinical trials.gov NCT00967460 http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00967460.

Extending the Kuznets Curve

[cat] Les darreres dècades s’han caracteritzat per un intens augment de les desigualtats salarials a nivell mundial. Aquest article allarga la hipòtesi clàssica de la Corba de Kuznets per cobrir les economies post-industrials i tractar d’explicar aquest fenomen. Segons la hipòtesi de la Corba de Kuznets Allargada, les desigualtats salarials podrien evolucionar segons una corba en forma d’N. La U-inverida d’aquesta corba seria deguda al procés de canvi estructural que acompanya a un procés de industrialització. I l’extrem dret de la mateixa, associada al creixement explosiu de la formació de capital humà en les economies modernes i post-industrials. En aquest sentit, els principals candidats per explicar el recent augment de les desigualtats: el canvi tècnic esbiaixat a favor del treball qualificat, la globalització (comerç i migracions) i els factors institucionals, estarien ja incorporats en l’evolució de la composició de la força de treball en termes de qualificacions. La limitada evidència empírica sobre aquest tema, tendeix a donar suport a la Corba de Kuznets Allargada.

Nurture versus nature: long-term impact of forced right-handedness on structure of pericentral cortex and basal ganglia.

Does a conflict between inborn motor preferences and educational standards during childhood impact the structure of the adult human brain? To examine this issue, we acquired high-resolution T1-weighted magnetic resonance scans of the whole brain in adult "converted" left-handers who had been forced as children to become dextral writers. Analysis of sulcal surfaces revealed that consistent right- and left-handers showed an interhemispheric asymmetry in the surface area of the central sulcus with a greater surface contralateral to the dominant hand. This pattern was reversed in the converted group who showed a larger surface of the central sulcus in their left, nondominant hemisphere, indicating plasticity of the primary sensorimotor cortex caused by forced use of the nondominant hand. Voxel-based morphometry showed a reduction of gray matter volume in the middle part of the left putamen in converted left-handers relative to both consistently handed groups. A similar trend was found in the right putamen. Converted subjects with at least one left-handed first-degree relative showed a correlation between the acquired right-hand advantage for writing and the structural changes in putamen and pericentral cortex. Our results show that a specific environmental challenge during childhood can shape the macroscopic structure of the human basal ganglia. The smaller than normal putaminal volume differs markedly from previously reported enlargement of cortical gray matter associated with skill acquisition. This indicates a differential response of the basal ganglia to early environmental challenges, possibly related to processes of pruning during motor development.

Development of a Computer Controlled Underbody Plow: TR412, Final Report, January 2006

Underbody plows can be very useful tools in winter maintenance, especially when compacted snow or hard ice must be removed from the roadway. By the application of significant down-force, and the use of an appropriate cutting edge angle, compacted snow and ice can be removed very effectively by such plows, with much greater efficiency than any other tool under those circumstances. However, the successful operation of an underbody plow requires considerable skill. If too little down pressure is applied to the plow, then it will not cut the ice or compacted snow. However, if too much force is applied, then either the cutting edge may gouge the road surface, causing significant damage often to both the road surface and the plow, or the plow may ride up on the cutting edge so that it is no longer controllable by the operator. Spinning of the truck in such situations is easily accomplished. Further, excessive down force will result in rapid wear of the cutting edge. Given this need for a high level of operator skill, the operation of an underbody plow is a candidate for automation. In order to successfully automate the operation of an underbody plow, a control system must be developed that follows a set of rules that represent appropriate operation of such a plow. These rules have been developed, based upon earlier work in which operational underbody plows were instrumented to determine the loading upon them (both vertical and horizontal) and the angle at which the blade was operating.These rules have been successfully coded into two different computer programs, both using the MatLab® software. In the first program, various load and angle inputs are analyzed to determine when, whether, and how they violate the rules of operation. This program is essentially deterministic in nature. In the second program, the Simulink® package in the MatLab® software system was used to implement these rules using fuzzy logic. Fuzzy logic essentially replaces a fixed and constant rule with one that varies in such a way as to improve operational control. The development of the fuzzy logic in this simulation was achieved simply by using appropriate routines in the computer software, rather than being developed directly. The results of the computer testing and simulation indicate that a fully automated, computer controlled underbody plow is indeed possible. The issue of whether the next steps toward full automation should be taken (and by whom) has also been considered, and the possibility of some sort of joint venture between a Department of Transportation and a vendor has been suggested.