A modell of socially optimal hydro reservoir usage - yelding socially optimal outcomes in nordic electricity markets

An extensive electricity transmission network facilitates electricity trading between Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Currently most of the area's power generation is traded at NordPool, where the trading volumes have steadily increased since the early 1990's, when the exchange was founded. The Nordic electricity is expected to follow the current trend and further integrate with the other European electricity markets. Hydro power is the source for roughly a half of the supply in the Nordic electricity market and most of the hydro is generated in Norway. The dominating role of hydro power distinguishes the Nordic electricity market from most of the other market places. Production of hydro power varies mainly due to hydro reservoirs and demand for electricity. Hydro reservoirs are affected by water inflows that differ each year. The hydro reservoirs explain remarkably the behaviour of the Nordic electricity markets. Therefore among others, Kauppi and Liski (2008) have developed a model that analyzes the behaviour of the markets using hydro reservoirs as explanatory factors. Their model includes, for example, welfare loss due to socially suboptimal hydro reservoir usage, socially optimal electricity price, hydro reservoir storage and thermal reservoir storage; that are referred as outcomes. However, the model does not explain the real market condition but rather an ideal situation. In the model the market is controlled by one agent, i.e. one agent controls all the power generation reserves; it is referred to as a socially optimal strategy. Article by Kauppi and Liski (2008) includes an assumption where an individual agent has a certain fraction of market power, e.g. 20 % or 30 %. In order to maintain the focus of this thesis, this part of their paper is omitted. The goal of this thesis is two-fold. Firstly we expand the results from the socially optimal strategy for years 2006-08, as the earlier study finishes in 2005. The second objective is to improve on the methods from the previous study. This thesis results several outcomes (SPOT-price and welfare loss, etc.) due to socially optimal actions. Welfare loss is interesting as it describes the inefficiency of the market. SPOT-price is an important output for the market participants as it often has an effect on end users' electricity bills. Another function is to modify and try to improve the model by means of using more accurate input data, e.g. by considering pollution trade rights effect on input data. After modifications to the model, new welfare losses are calculated and compared with the same results before the modifications. The hydro reservoir has the higher explanatory significance in the model followed by thermal power. In Nordic markets, thermal power reserves are mostly nuclear power and other thermal sources (coal, natural gas, oil, peat). It can be argued that hydro and thermal reservoirs determine electricity supply. Roughly speaking, the model takes into account electricity demand and supply, and several parameters related to them (water inflow, oil price, etc.), yielding finally the socially optimal outcomes. The author of this thesis is not aware of any similar model being tested before. There have been some other studies that are close to the Kauppi and Liski (2008) model, but those have a somewhat different focus. For example, a specific feature in the model is the focus on long-run capacity usage that differs from the previous studies on short-run market power. The closest study to the model is from California's wholesale electricity markets that, however, uses different methodology. Work is constructed as follows.

Fluid dynamics study of a new vacuum degassing process

Recently, the demand of the steel having superior chemical and physical properties has increased for which the content of carbon must be in ultra low range. There are many processes which can produce low carbon steel such as Tank degasser and RH (Rheinstahl-Heraeus) processes. It has been claimed that using a new process, called REDA (Revolutionary Degassing Activator), one can achieve the carbon content below 10ppm in less time. REDA process in terms of installment cost is in between tank degasser and RH processes. As such, REDA process has not been studied thoroughly. Fluid flow phenomena affect the decarburization rate the most besides the chemical reaction rate. Therefore, momentum balance equations along with k-ε turbulent model have been solved for gas and liquid phases in two-dimension (2D) for REDA process. The fluid flow phenomena have been studied in details for this process by varying gas flow rate, depth of immersed snorkel in the steel, diameter of the snorkel and change in vacuum pressure. It is found that design of snorkel affects the mixing process of the bath significantly.

An empirical evaluation of a framework for design for variety and novelty

The objective of this paper is to empirically evaluate a framework for designing – GEMS of SAPPhIRE as req-sol – to check if it supports design for variety and novelty. A set of observational studies is designed where three teams of two designers each, solve three different design problems in the following order: without any support, using the framework, and using a combination of the framework and a catalogue. Results from the studies reveal that both variety and novelty of the concept space increases with the use of the framework or the framework and the catalogue. However, the number of concepts and the time taken by the designers decreases with the use of the framework and, the framework and the catalogue. Based on the results and the interview sessions with the designers, an interactive framework for designing to be supported on a computer is proposed as future work.

Computational representations for multi state design tasks and enumeration of mechanical device behaviour

The role of a computer emerged from modeling and analyzing concepts (ideas) to generate concepts. Research into methods for supporting conceptual design using automated synthesis had attracted much attention in the past decades. To find out how designers synthesize solution concepts for multi-state mechanical devices, ten experimental studies were conducted. Observations from these empirical studies would be used as the basis to develop knowledge involved in the multi-state design synthesis process. In this paper, we propose a computational representation for expressing the multi-state design task and for enumerating multi-state behaviors of kinematic pairs and mechanisms. This computational representation would be used to formulate computational methods for the synthesis process to develop a system for supporting design synthesis of multiple state mechanical devices by generating a comprehensive variety of solution alternatives.

Analysing modifica-tions in the synthesis of multiple state mechanical devices using configuration space and topology graphs

Automated synthesis of mechanical designs is an important step towards the development of an intelligent CAD system. Research into methods for supporting conceptual design using automated synthesis has attracted much attention in the past decades. In our research, ten experimental studies are conducted to find out how designers synthesize solution concepts for multi-state mechanical devices. The designers are asked to think aloud, while carrying out the synthesis. These design synthesis processes are video recorded. It has been found that modification of kinematic pairs and mechanisms is the major activity carried out by all the designers. This paper presents an analysis of these synthesis processes using configuration space and topology graph to identify and classify the types of modifications that take place. Understanding of these modification processes and the context in which they happened is crucial to develop a system for supporting design synthesis of multiple state mechanical devices that is capable of creating a comprehensive variety of solution alternatives.

BIOCARDS AND LEVEL OF ABSTRACTION

Biocards are formal descriptions of biological phenomena and their underlying functional principles. They are used in bioinspired design to document search results and to communicate the findings for use in the further design process. The present study explored the effect of abstraction level used in biocards. This was done in two workshops conducted with design students in Denmark and India. Students were given a design assignment and instructions for how to perform the BID ideation work. Half of the students were given biocards with abstract descriptions while the other half got biocards with concrete descriptions. The novelty of found solutions was evaluated by the students by rating novelty of each solution on a scale from 1 to 5. Mean values for abstract descriptions were 0,3 higher than for concrete descriptions indicating that more innovative solutions were found when students used biocards with abstract descriptions compared to concrete descriptions. The difference in mean value is significant with a confidence level better than 1%. It seems likely that more abstract descriptions in biocards helps avoiding design fixation in biomimetic design work.

Evaluación comparativa de una ración "Hecha en la finca" con una ración comercial en la alimentación de pollos asaderos

En el local de la Escuela Nacional de Agricultura y ganadería (ENAG) se llevo a cabo un estudio con el propósito de evaluar económicamente una ración comercial y otra elaborada en la finca con pollos asaderos. El estudio tuvo una duración de seis semanas. Se usaron 80 pollos de la zara Vantress Cross son sexar de seis días de nacidos y se dividieron en dos grupos y cada grupo en cuatro lotes, constituyendo estos las repeticiones correspondientes para cada tratamiento. Todos los pollos se vacunaron contra New Castle. Los pollos se pesaron al inicio y final del ensayo y se llevo un registro del alimento consumido en cada grupo. El diseño estadístico utilizado fue completamente al azar. Se encontraron aumentos de pesos significativos P<0.01 con la ración comercial. No se encontró diferencias significativas dentro de cada tratamiento. La ración comercial produjo los mayores beneficios económicos.