Geographic Range Shifts under Climate Warming

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2013

Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

Microstrip antenna array for multiband dedicated short range communications systems

Dedicated Short Range Communications (DSRC) is the key enabling technology for the present and future vehicular communication for various applications, such as safety improvement and traffic jam mitigation. This paper describes the development of a microstrip antenna array for the roadside equipment of a DSRC system, whose characteristics are according with the vehicular communications standards. The proposed antenna, with circular polarization, has a wide bandwidth, enough to cover the current European DSRC 5.8 GHz band and the future 5.9 GHz band for next generation DSRC communications. (C) 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Microwave Opt Technol Lett 53: 2794-2796, 2011; View this article online at wileyonlinelibrary.com. DOI 10.1002/mop.26394

Diferença entre os géneros na análise cinemática e eletromiográfica do membro superior durante uma atividade diária de beber

As diferenças entre os géneros parecem surgir desde a origem da humanidade, quando a função do homem era caçar e da mulher fornecer cuidados às crianças e realizar trabalhos de cariz manual. O membro superior apresenta um papel primordial na execução da maioria das atividades relevantes para o ser humano, sendo pertinente a realização de avaliações mais objetivas do mesmo. Com a realização deste estudo pretendemos verificar se existem diferenças entre os géneros nos parâmetros eletromiográficos e cinemáticos do movimento durante uma atividade diária; perceber se os valores da eletromiografia e da cinemática do membro superior são dependentes do género à medida que a distância do objeto é alterada e ainda, levar a cabo a análise da atividade de beber. Para tal foram avaliados parâmetros de qualidade de movimento e parâmetros de recrutamento muscular em 15 indivíduos do género feminino e 15 indivíduos do género masculino com idades compreendidas entre os 18 e os 30 anos numa atividade de beber em três momentos diferentes. Para a análise cinemática foi utilizado o software Qualysis Motion Capture e para a análise eletromiográfica o software AcqKnowledge Analysis. Com os resultados obtidos constatamos que a percentagem de ativação muscular e os ângulos de flexão do ombro e flexão do cotovelo apresentam diferenças estatisticamente significativas (p<0.05) entre os géneros, sendo o grupo feminino a apresentar valores superiores. Aferiu-se também que a percentagem de ativação do músculo Deltoide Anterior parece ser influenciado pelo género (p<0.05) ao longo das três distâncias em estudo, sendo novamente o grupo feminino a apresentar valores superiores. Para além disto, aquando do movimento de alcançar, verificaram-se evidências estatísticas (p<0.05) do envolvimento do tronco em todas as distâncias de alcance do objeto, inclusive numa distância inferior ao comprimento do braço. Este estudo permitiu a descrição detalhada da eletromiografia e cinemática do movimento do membro superior de alcançar e transportar numa atividade diária, bem como uma comparação da mesma entre o grupo masculino e grupo feminino.

Genetic algorithm for shipping route estimation with long-range tracking data : automatic reconstruction of shipping routes based on the historical ship positions for maritime safety applications

Ship tracking systems allow Maritime Organizations that are concerned with the Safety at Sea to obtain information on the current location and route of merchant vessels. Thanks to Space technology in recent years the geographical coverage of the ship tracking platforms has increased significantly, from radar based near-shore traffic monitoring towards a worldwide picture of the maritime traffic situation. The long-range tracking systems currently in operations allow the storage of ship position data over many years: a valuable source of knowledge about the shipping routes between different ocean regions. The outcome of this Master project is a software prototype for the estimation of the most operated shipping route between any two geographical locations. The analysis is based on the historical ship positions acquired with long-range tracking systems. The proposed approach makes use of a Genetic Algorithm applied on a training set of relevant ship positions extracted from the long-term storage tracking database of the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA). The analysis of some representative shipping routes is presented and the quality of the results and their operational applications are assessed by a Maritime Safety expert.

Most and Least Preferred Colours Differ According to Object Context : New Insights from an Unrestricted Colour Range

Humans like some colours and dislike others, but which particular colours and why remains to be understood. Empirical studies on colour preferences generally targeted most preferred colours, but rarely least preferred (disliked) colours. In addition, findings are often based on general colour preferences leaving open the question whether results generalise to specific objects. Here, 88 participants selected the colours they preferred most and least for three context conditions (general, interior walls, t-shirt) using a high-precision colour picker. Participants also indicated whether they associated their colour choice to a valenced object or concept. The chosen colours varied widely between individuals and contexts and so did the reasons for their choices. Consistent patterns also emerged, as most preferred colours in general were more chromatic, while for walls they were lighter and for t-shirts they were darker and less chromatic compared to least preferred colours. This meant that general colour preferences could not explain object specific colour preferences. Measures of the selection process further revealed that, compared to most preferred colours, least preferred colours were chosen more quickly and were less often linked to valenced objects or concepts. The high intra- and inter-individual variability in this and previous reports furthers our understanding that colour preferences are determined by subjective experiences and that most and least preferred colours are not processed equally.

Attractive silences in cricket courtship song : mate choice using a short-range signal /

Matings systems using signals for sexual communication have been studied extensively and results commonly suggest that females use these signals for locating males, species-identification, and mate choice. Although numerous mating systems employ multiple signals, research has generally focused on long-range signals perhaps due to their prominence and ease of study. This study focused on the short-range acoustic courtship song of crickets. The results presented here suggest this signal is under selection by female choice. Females mated preferentially with males having shorter silences between the two types of ticks within the song. The length of these silences (Gap 1) was correlated with male condition such that males having long silences were significantly lower in mass with respect to body size when compared to males having short silences. Both Gap 1 length and male condition were significantly repeatable within males over time suggesting the possibility these traits have a genetic basis. This study is the first empirical study to test female preferences within the natural variation of the courtship song. It now appears, at least in crickets, that both the longand short-range signals of a multi-signal mating system may contribute to male mating success.

Behaviour and life history of a large carpenter bee (Xylocopa virginica) in the northern extent of its range

Large carpenter bees (Hymenoptera: Apidae: Xylocopa) have traditionally been thought of as exhibiting solitary or occasionally communal colony social organization. However, studies have demonstrated more complex fonns of social behaviour in this genus. In this document, I examine elements ofbehaviour and life history in a North American species at the northern extreme of its range. Xylocopa virginica was found to be socially polymorphic with both solitary and meta-social or semi-social nests in the same population. In social nests, there is no apparent benefit from additional females which do not perfonn significant work or guarding. I found that the timing of life-history events varies between years, yet foraging effort only differed in the coldest and wettest year of2004 the study. Finally, I that male X virginica exhibit female defence polygyny, with resident and satellite males. Resident males maintain their territories through greater aggression relative to satellites.

A tour from the City of New-York, to Detroit, in the Michigan Territory, made between the 2d of May and the 22d of September, 1818 : the tour extends from New-York, by Albany, Schenectady, and Utica to Sacket's Harbor, and thence throught Lake Ontario, to St. Lawrence river, and down that stream to Hamilton village. Thence along both banks of the St. Lawrence, from Hamilton to the Thousand Islands; thence to Sacket's Harbor by water; from that place by the route of great Sodus, Geneva, Cananaigua and Batavia, to Buffalo; and from thence to Black Rock, Fort Erie, the Falls of Niagara, Queenston, Lewiston, and the memorable fields of Bridgewater and Chippewa after viewing the interesting place of Niagara, the author traversed the south shore of Lake Erie to the City of Detroit, and visited in the latter range, Dunkirk, Erie, Cleveland, Sandusky, and other places of less note. The tour is accompanied with a map upon which the route will be designated; a particular map of the Falls andRiver of Niagara, and the environs of the City of Detroit /

Errata slip inserted.

SUNNY BROOK RANGE

Light brown sediment with clasts ranging from small to medium in size. The clast shape ranges from sub-angular to sub-rounded. Lineations are abundant throughout the sample. Light folding structures can also be seen in this sample. There are minor amounts of grain crushing/stacking also present.

Modeling short-range ballistic missile defense and Israel's Iron Dome system

This paper develops a model of short-range ballistic missile defense and uses it to study the performance of Israel’s Iron Dome system. The deterministic base model allows for inaccurate missiles, unsuccessful interceptions, and civil defense. Model enhancements consider the trade-offs in attacking the interception system, the difficulties faced by militants in assembling large salvos, and the effects of imperfect missile classification by the defender. A stochastic model is also developed. Analysis shows that system performance can be highly sensitive to the missile salvo size, and that systems with higher interception rates are more “fragile” when overloaded. The model is calibrated using publically available data about Iron Dome’s use during Operation Pillar of Defense in November 2012. If the systems performed as claimed, they saved Israel an estimated 1778 casualties and $80 million in property damage, and thereby made preemptive strikes on Gaza about 8 times less valuable to Israel. Gaza militants could have inflicted far more damage by grouping their rockets into large salvos, but this may have been difficult given Israel’s suppression efforts. Counter-battery fire by the militants is unlikely to be worthwhile unless they can obtain much more accurate missiles.

Receipt from George Lloyd, dealer in stoves and ranges, St. Catharines for range and pipes

Receipt from George Lloyd, dealer in stoves and ranges, St. Catharines for range and pipes, July 1, 1887.

Analyse cinématique de la marche de travailleurs exposés à une surcharge mécanique sur l’articulation fémoro-tibiale (AF-T)

De nombreuses études concluent que la charge mécanique supportée par le genou, qu’elle soit reliée à l’obésité, aux sports intenses, à une altération biomécanique des structures de l’articulation ou à une exposition à des charges lourdes durant les activités occupationnelles, est considérée comme un facteur de risque important au développement de la gonarthrose. La gonarthrose reliée au travail a été le sujet de nombreuses études et plusieurs d’entre elles ont rapporté une prévalence accrue de la gonarthrose chez les travailleurs de certains domaines en particulier, comme la construction, la pose de plancher, la peinture, l’exploitation minière, l’agriculture et le travail en atelier et en milieu de la santé. Les personnes qui travaillent dans ces métiers sont exposées à des positions ou des activités nuisibles, comme travailler à genoux ou accroupi, monter des escaliers ou des échelles, transporter des changes lourdes et marcher de façon prolongée. Ces gestes surchargent l’articulation du genou, ce qui cause des modifications aux structures de l’articulation du genou ou aux adaptations neuromusculaires de patron de mouvement du genou. Ces modifications structurelles et adaptations neuromusculaires peuvent apporter des changements cinématiques à la marche qui peuvent initier la gonarthrose ou contribuer à sa progression. L’objectif principal de la présente étude était d’analyser l’effet d’une surcharge mécanique sur l’articulation fémoro-tibiale (AF-T) subie au travail lors d’une tâche de marche et comparer le patron cinématique de l’articulation fémoro-tibiale des travailleurs exposés à une surcharge mécanique à celui des travailleurs non exposés. Vingt-quatre travailleurs exposés à une surcharge mécanique et neuf travailleurs non exposés ont participé à l’étude. Les données cinématiques de la marche ont été enregistrées au niveau du genou dans des conditions cliniques en utilisant un système de suivi du mouvement électromagnétique. Les paramètres suivant ont été extraits et utilisés pour la comparaison des groupes : l’angle maximum lors du contact initial, l’angle ii maximum de flexion durant la réponse à la charge, l’angle minimum au moment de l’appui unipodal et l’étendue max-min du cycle. La comparaison des groupes pour les variables cliniques et cinématiques a été effectué par l’utilisation de tests-t bilatéraux (« Student-t tests ») et de tests ANCOVA utilisant le poids et la vitesse comme covariables. Les travailleurs exposés à une surcharge mécanique présentaient un plus grand angle de flexion de l’articulation fémoro-tibiale au contact initial, durant la réponse au chargement et à la phase unipodale et ils ont démontré une étendue d’angle moindre que les travailleurs non exposés. Nous croyons que les données cinématiques de la marche peuvent donner des idées sur les facteurs biomécaniques qui pourraient prédisposer les travailleurs au développement ou à la progression de la gonarthrose. Une meilleure compréhension de ces facteurs pourrait être un premier pas vers le développement d’une intervention plus efficace pour cette population.