Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market by a hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach

In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of 1 week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Service Integration Platform for Collaborative Networks

Integrated manufacturing constitutes a complex system made of heterogeneous information and control subsystems. Those subsystems are not designed to the cooperation. Typically each subsystem automates specific processes, and establishes closed application domains, therefore it is very difficult to integrate it with other subsystems in order to respond to the needed process dynamics. Furthermore, to cope with ever growing marketcompetition and demands, it is necessary for manufacturing/enterprise systems to increase their responsiveness based on up-to-date knowledge and in-time data gathered from the diverse information and control systems. These have created new challenges for manufacturing sector, and even bigger challenges for collaborative manufacturing. The growing complexity of the information and communication technologies when coping with innovative business services based on collaborative contributions from multiple stakeholders, requires novel and multidisciplinary approaches. Service orientation is a strategic approach to deal with such complexity, and various stakeholders' information systems. Services or more precisely the autonomous computational agents implementing the services, provide an architectural pattern able to cope with the needs of integrated and distributed collaborative solutions. This paper proposes a service-oriented framework, aiming to support a virtual organizations breeding environment that is the basis for establishing short or long term goal-oriented virtual organizations. The notion of integrated business services, where customers receive some value developed through the contribution from a network of companies is a key element.

Avaliação do stress oxidativo na disfunção erétil

As sequelas fisiopatológicas do stress oxidativo são difíceis de quantificar. Apesar dos obstáculos, a relevância médica do stress oxidativo tem vindo a ser cada vez mais reconhecida, sendo hoje em dia encarado como um componente chave de virtualmente todas as doenças. A disfunção erétil (DE) surge neste contexto como uma espécie de barómetro da função endotelial e do dano oxidativo. A quantificação de biomarcadores de stress oxidativo poderá apresentar um enorme impacto na avaliação de pacientes com DE. O rácio glutationa reduzida/oxidada (GSH/GSSG) e a nitrotirosina (3-NT) têm vindo a demonstrar relevância clínica. A consideração de polimorfismos genéticos constitui ainda uma abordagem promissora na avaliação destas relações no futuro. Um método altamente sensível de cromatografia líquida de alta performance (HPLC) foi desenvolvido para a determinação de 3-NT em plasma humano. As concentrações de 3-NT medidos em indivíduos com DE foram 6,6±2,1μM (média±S.D., n = 46). A medição da concentração plasmática de 3-NT poderá revelar-se útil como marcador de dano oxidativo dependente do óxido nítrico (NO). O nível de stress oxidativo pode também ser quantificado através da medição do decréscimo do rácio GSH/GSSG, que tem mostrado alterações numa miríade de patologias, como a DE e a diabetes mellitus. O método proposto para a quantificação do rácio GSH/GSSG em HPLC apresenta a vantagem de avaliação concomitante dos dois parâmetros em apenas uma corrida. O valor do rácio GSH/GSSG obtido a partir de sangue de indivíduos com DE foi 11,9±9,8 (média±S.D., n = 49). Os resultados estatísticos revelaram diferenças significativas (p<0,001) entre ambos a concentração plasmática de 3-NT e o rácio GSH/GSSG de sangue de indivíduos com DE e as respetivas medições em indivíduos saudáveis. Observaram-se ainda diferenças estatisticamente significativas (p≈0,027) entre o rácio GSH/GSSG do sangue de pacientes apenas com diagnóstico de DE e a medição respetiva em indivíduos com DE e comorbilidades cardiovasculares. Estes resultados enfatizam o papel do dano oxidativo na biopatologia da DE, elucidado com o auxílio destas duas metodologias, que poderão ter um amplo campo de aplicação no futuro, dado que se mostraram simples, não dispendiosas e rápidas, podendo eventualmente adequar-se a estudos de rastreio em larga escala.

NCRF 21 – provisões, passivos contingentes e activos contingentes: suas implicações fiscais e de auditoria

Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto (ISCAP) para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Auditoria Docente orientador: Mestre Domingos da Silva Duarte

Finanças comportamentais: sobre-reação e sub-reação no mercado bolsista português

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças Orientador: Mestre Luis Pereira Gomes

Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

Short-term wind forecasting for energy resources scheduling

This paper proposes a wind power forecasting methodology based on two methods: direct wind power forecasting and wind speed forecasting in the first phase followed by wind power forecasting using turbines characteristics and the aforementioned wind speed forecast. The proposed forecasting methodology aims to support the operation in the scope of the intraday resources scheduling model, namely with a time horizon of 5 minutes. This intraday model supports distribution network operators in the short-term scheduling problem, in the smart grid context. A case study using a real database of 12 months recorded from a Portuguese wind power farm was used. The results show that the straightforward methodology can be applied in the intraday model with high wind speed and wind power accuracy. The wind power forecast direct method shows better performance than wind power forecast using turbine characteristics and wind speed forecast obtained in first phase.

Hybrid Wavelet-PSO-ANFIS Approach for Short-Term Electricity Prices Forecasting

A novel hybrid approach, combining wavelet transform, particle swarm optimization, and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, is proposed in this paper for short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

Multi-criteria short-term maintenance outage scheduling in smart distribution systems

Effective legislation and standards for the coordination procedures between consumers, producers and the system operator supports the advances in the technologies that lead to smart distribution systems. In short-term (ST) maintenance scheduling procedure, the energy producers in a distribution system access to the long-term (LT) outage plan that is released by the distribution system operator (DSO). The impact of this additional information on the decision-making procedure of producers in ST maintenance scheduling is studied in this paper. The final ST maintenance plan requires the approval of the DSO that has the responsibility to secure the network reliability and quality, and other players have to follow the finalized schedule. Maintenance scheduling in the producers’ layer and the coordination procedure between them and the DSO is modelled in this paper. The proposed method is applied to a 33-bus distribution system.

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market by a hybrid intelligent approach

In this paper, a hybrid intelligent approach is proposed for short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market. The proposed approach is based on the wavelet transform and a hybrid of neural networks and fuzzy logic. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications. Conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Short-term Feature Space and Music Genre Classification

In music genre classification, most approaches rely on statistical characteristics of low-level features computed on short audio frames. In these methods, it is implicitly considered that frames carry equally relevant information loads and that either individual frames, or distributions thereof, somehow capture the specificities of each genre. In this paper we study the representation space defined by short-term audio features with respect to class boundaries, and compare different processing techniques to partition this space. These partitions are evaluated in terms of accuracy on two genre classification tasks, with several types of classifiers. Experiments show that a randomized and unsupervised partition of the space, used in conjunction with a Markov Model classifier lead to accuracies comparable to the state of the art. We also show that unsupervised partitions of the space tend to create less hubs.

Short-term scheduling considering five-minute and hour-ahead energy resource management

The introduction of new distributed energy resources, based on natural intermittent power sources, in power systems imposes the development of new adequate operation management and control methods. This paper proposes a short-term Energy Resource Management (ERM) methodology performed in two phases. The first one addresses the hour-ahead ERM scheduling and the second one deals with the five-minute ahead ERM scheduling. Both phases consider the day-ahead resource scheduling solution. The ERM scheduling is formulated as an optimization problem that aims to minimize the operation costs from the point of view of a virtual power player that manages the network and the existing resources. The optimization problem is solved by a deterministic mixed-integer non-linear programming approach and by a heuristic approach based on genetic algorithms. A case study considering a distribution network with 33 bus, 66 distributed generation, 32 loads with demand response contracts and 7 storage units has been implemented in a PSCADbased simulator developed in the field of the presented work, in order to validate the proposed short-term ERM methodology considering the dynamic power system behavior.

A regulatory framework for short-term stochastic maintenance outage scheduling in smart grids

The current regulatory framework for maintenance outage scheduling in distribution systems needs revision to face the challenges of future smart grids. In the smart grid context, generation units and the system operator perform new roles with different objectives, and an efficient coordination between them becomes necessary. In this paper, the distribution system operator (DSO) of a microgrid receives the proposals for shortterm (ST) planned outages from the generation and transmission side, and has to decide the final outage plans, which is mandatory for the members to follow. The framework is based on a coordination procedure between the DSO and other market players. This paper undertakes the challenge of optimization problem in a smart grid where the operator faces with uncertainty. The results show the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed regulatory framework in the modified IEEE 34- bus test system.

Real-time energy resources scheduling considering short-term and very short-term wind forecast

This paper proposes an energy resources management methodology based on three distinct time horizons: day-ahead scheduling, hour-ahead scheduling, and real-time scheduling. In each scheduling process it is necessary the update of generation and consumption operation and of the storage and electric vehicles storage status. Besides the new operation condition, it is important more accurate forecast values of wind generation and of consumption using results of in short-term and very short-term methods. A case study considering a distribution network with intensive use of distributed generation and electric vehicles is presented.

Distributed energy resource short-term scheduling using signaled particle swarm optimization

Distributed Energy Resources (DER) scheduling in smart grids presents a new challenge to system operators. The increase of new resources, such as storage systems and demand response programs, results in additional computational efforts for optimization problems. On the other hand, since natural resources, such as wind and sun, can only be precisely forecasted with small anticipation, short-term scheduling is especially relevant requiring a very good performance on large dimension problems. Traditional techniques such as Mixed-Integer Non-Linear Programming (MINLP) do not cope well with large scale problems. This type of problems can be appropriately addressed by metaheuristics approaches. This paper proposes a new methodology called Signaled Particle Swarm Optimization (SiPSO) to address the energy resources management problem in the scope of smart grids, with intensive use of DER. The proposed methodology’s performance is illustrated by a case study with 99 distributed generators, 208 loads, and 27 storage units. The results are compared with those obtained in other methodologies, namely MINLP, Genetic Algorithm, original Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Evolutionary PSO, and New PSO. SiPSO performance is superior to the other tested PSO variants, demonstrating its adequacy to solve large dimension problems which require a decision in a short period of time.