Laboratory verification of predicted permanent deformation in asphalt materials following climate change.

In the past a change in temperature of 5°C most often occurred over intervals of thousands of years. According to estimates by the IPCC, in the XXI century is expected an increase in average temperatures in Europe between 1.8 and 4.0°C in the best case caused by emissions of carbon dioxide and other GHG from human activities. As well as on the environment and economic context, global warming will have effects even on road safety. Several studies have already shown how increasing temperature may cause a worsening of some types of road surface damages, especially rutting, a permanent deformation of the road structures consisting in the formation of a longitudinal depression in the wheelpath, mostly due to the rheological behavior of bitumen. This deformation evolves during the hot season because of the heating capacity of the asphalt layers, in fact, the road surface temperature is up to 24°C higher than air. In this thesis, through the use of Wheeltrack test, it was studied the behavior of some types of asphalt concrete mixtures subjected to fatigue testing at different temperatures. The objectives of this study are: to determine the strain variation of different bituminous mixture subjected to fatigue testing at different temperature conditions; to investigate the effect of aggregates, bitumen and mixtures’ characteristics on rutting. Samples were made in the laboratory mostly using an already prepared mixtures, the others preparing the asphalt concrete from the grading curve and bitumen content. The same procedure was performed for each specimen: preparation, compaction using the roller compactor, cooling and heating before the test. The tests were carried out at 40 - 50 - 60°C in order to obtain the evolution of deformation with temperature variation, except some mixtures for which the tests were carried out only at 50°C. In the elaboration of the results were considered testing parameters, component properties and the characteristics of the mixture. Among the testing parameters, temperature was varied for each sample. The mixtures responded to this variation with a different behavior (linear logarithmic and exponential) not directly correlated with the asphalt characteristics; the others parameters as load, passage frequency and test condition were kept constant. According to the results obtained, the main contribution to deformation is due to the type of binder used, it was found that the modified bitumen have a better response than the same mixtures containing traditional bitumen; to the porosity which affects negatively the behavior of the samples and to the homogeneity ceteris paribus. The granulometric composition did not seem to have interfered with the results. Overall has emerged at working temperature, a decisive importance of bitumen composition, than the other characteristics of the mixture, that tends to disappear with heating in favor of increased dependence of rutting resistance from the granulometric composition of the sample considered. In particular it is essential, rather than the mechanical characteristics of the binder, its chemical properties given by the polymeric modification. To confirm some considered results, the maximum bulk density and the air voids content were determined. Tests have been conducted in the laboratories of the Civil Engineering Department at NTNU in Trondheim according to European Standards.

Climate impact studies of sediment transport on the Adriatic coastal zone

The study of the impact of climate change on the environment has been based, until very recently, on an global approach, whose interest from a local point of view is very limited. This thesis, on the contrary, has treated the study of the impact of climate change in the Adriatic Sea basin following a twofold strategy of regionalization and integration of numerical models in order to reproduce the present and future scenarios of the system through a more and more realistic and solid approach. In particular the focus of the study was on the impact on the physical environment and on the sediment transport in the basin. This latter is a very new and original issue, to our knowledge still uninvestigated. The study case of the coastal area of Montenegro was particularly studied, since it is characterized by an important supply of sediment through the Buna/Bojana river, second most important in the Adriatic basin in terms of flow. To do this, a methodology to introduce the tidal processes in a baroclinic primitive equations Ocean General Circulation Model was applied and tidal processes were successfully reproduced in the Adriatic Sea, analyzing also the impacts they have on the mean general circulation, on salt and heat transport and on mixing and stratification of the water column in the different seasons of the year. The new hydrodynamical model has been further coupled with a wave model and with a river and sea sediment transport model, showing good results in the reproduction of sediment transport processes. Finally this complex coupled platform was integrated in the period 2001-2030 under the A1B scenario of IPCC, and the impact of climate change on the physical system and on sediment transport was preliminarily evaluated.

Irrigazione e cambiamenti climatici

The aim of this PhD thesis, developed in the framework of the Italian Agroscenari research project, is to compare current irrigation volumes in two study area in Emilia-Romagna with the likely irrigation under climate change conditions. This comparison was carried out between the reference period 1961-1990, as defined by WMO, and the 2021-2050 period. For this period, multi-model climatic projections on the two study areas were available. So, the climatic projections were analyzed in term of their impact on irrigation demand and adaptation strategies for fruit and horticultural crops in the study area of Faenza, with a detailed analysis for kiwifruit vine, and for horticultural crops in Piacenza plan, focusing on the irrigation water needs of tomato. We produced downscaled climatic projections (based on A1B Ipcc emission scenario) for the two study areas. The climate change impacts for the period 2021-2050 on crop irrigation water needs and other agrometeorological index were assessed by means of the Criteria water balance model, in the two versions available, Criteria BdP (local) and Geo (spatial) with different levels of detail. We found in general for both the areas an irrigation demand increase of about +10% comparing the 2021-2050 period with the reference years 1961-1990, but no substantial differences with more recent years (1991-2008), mainly due to a projected increase in spring precipitation compensating the projected higher summer temperature and evapotranspiration. As a consequence, it is not forecasted a dramatic increase in the irrigation volumes with respect to the current volumes.

Sea-Level climate variability in the Mediterranean Sea

Sea-level variability is characterized by multiple interacting factors described in the Fourth Assessment Report (Bindoff et al., 2007) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that act over wide spectra of temporal and spatial scales. In Church et al. (2010) sea-level variability and changes are defined as manifestations of climate variability and change. The European Environmental Agency (EEA) defines sea level as one of most important indicators for monitoring climate change, as it integrates the response of different components of the Earths system and is also affected by anthropogenic contributions (EEA, 2011). The balance between the different sea-level contributions represents an important source of uncertainty, involving stochastic processes that are very difficult to describe and understand in detail, to the point that they are defined as an enigma in Munk (2002). Sea-level rate estimates are affected by all these uncertainties, in particular if we look at possible responses to sea-level contributions to future climate. At the regional scale, lateral fluxes also contribute to sea-level variability, adding complexity to sea-level dynamics. The research strategy adopted in this work to approach such an interesting and challenging topic has been to develop an objective methodology to study sea-level variability at different temporal and spatial scales, applicable in each part of the Mediterranean basin in particular, and in the global ocean in general, using all the best calibrated sources of data (for the Mediterranean): in-situ, remote-sensig and numerical models data. The global objective of this work was to achieve a deep understanding of all of the components of the sea-level signal contributing to sea-level variability, tendency and trend and to quantify them.

Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die klein- und großräumige genetische Populationsstruktur von Makrozoobenthos in Rhein, Main und Mosel

In den letzten Jahrzehnten wurde eine deutliche, anhaltende Veränderung des globalen Klimas beobachtet, die in Zukunft zu einer Erhöhung der durchschnittlichen Oberflächentemperatur, erhöhten Niederschlagsmengen und anderen gravierenden Umweltveränderungen führen wird (IPCC 2001). Der Klimawandel wird in Flüssen sowohl mehr Extremereignisse verursachen als auch das Abflussregime bisher schmelzwasserdominierter Flüsse zu grundwassergespeisten hin ändern; dies gilt insbesondere für den Rhein (MIDDELKOOP et al. 2001). Um die möglichen Auswirkungen dieser Veränderungen auf die genetische Populationsstruktur von Makrozoobenthosorganismen vorhersagen zu können, wurden in den grundwassergespeisten Flüssen Main und Mosel sowie im Rhein Entnahmestellen oberhalb und unterhalb von Staustufen beprobt, die durch kontrastierende Strömungsverhältnisse als Modell für die zu erwartenden Änderungen dienten. Als Untersuchungsobjekt wurden Dreissena polymorpha PALLAS 1771 sowie Dikerogammarus villosus SOWINSKI 1894 herangezogen. Sie zeichnen sich durch hohe Abundanzen aus, sind aber unterschiedlich u.a. hinsichtlich ihrer Besiedlungsstrategie und –historie. Bei beiden Spezies sind die phylogeographischen Hintergründe bekannt; daher wurde auch versucht, die Einwanderungsrouten in der Populationsstruktur nachzuweisen (phylogeographisches Szenario). Dies konkurrierte mit der möglichen Anpassung der Spezies an das Abflussregime des jeweiligen Flusses (Adaptations-Szenario). Die Populationen wurden molekulargenetisch mit Hilfe der AFLP-Methode („Amplified-Fragment Length Polymorphism“) untersucht. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass D. polymorpha deutlich durch die Abflussregimes der Flüsse (Schmelz- oder Grundwasserdominanz) beeinflusst wird. Die Allelfrequenzen in Populationen des Rheins sind von denen der beiden grundwassergespeisten Flüsse Main und Mosel deutlich unterscheidbar (Adaptations-Szenario). Jedoch ist kein Unterschied der genetischen Diversitäten zu beobachten; das ist auf die lange Adaptation an ihre jeweiligen Habitate durch die lange Besiedlungsdauer zurückzuführen. Dies ist auch der Grund, warum die Einwanderungsrouten anhand der Populationsstruktur nicht mehr nachzuweisen waren. Die kontrastierenden Strömungsverhältnisse um die Staustufen hatten ebenfalls keine konsistenten Auswirkungen auf die genetische Diversität der Populationen. Diese Ergebnisse zeigen eine hohe phänotypische Plastizität der Spezies und dadurch eine große Anpassungsfähigkeit an wechselnde Umweltbedingungen, die unter anderem für den großen Erfolg dieser Spezies verantwortlich ist. D. villosus wanderte erst vor Kurzem in das Untersuchungsgebiet ein; die Einwanderungsroute war anhand der genetischen Diversität nachvollziehbar (phylogeographisches Szenario); durch die kurze Besiedlungsdauer war eine Adaptation an die divergenten Abflussregime der Flüsse nicht zu erwarten und wurde auch nicht gefunden. Dagegen war ein deutlicher negativer Einfluss von starker Strömung auf die genetische Diversität nachweisbar. Die Ergebnisse weisen darauf hin, dass die zukünftigen Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die Strömungsgeschwindigkeit negative Konsequenzen auf die genetische Diversität von D. villosus haben werden, während D. polymorpha hier keine Auswirkungen erkennen lässt. Die Auswirkungen des veränderten Abflussregimes im Rhein sind für D. villosus mit den vorliegenden Daten aufgrund der kurzen Besiedlungsdauer nicht vorhersagbar; D. polymorpha wird durch die Veränderung des Rheins zu einem grundwassergespeisten Fluss zwar einen Wandel in der genetischen Struktur erfahren, aber auch hier keine Einbußen in der genetischen Diversität erleiden.

Zum Stand der aktuellen Diskussion des globalen Klimawandels : Versuch einer kritischen Wertung seiner Ursachen und Folgen sowie von Handlungsweisen im Licht von Wissenschaft und Öffentlichkeit

Mittels gründlicher Literaturrecherchen wurde dokumentiert, wie Wissenschaft, Medien, Wirtschaft und Staatsregierungen den globalen Klimawandel seit der Industriellen Revolution bewertet haben. Dabei wurde der breite wissenschaftliche Konsens über die ausschlaggebende Rolle des Treibhauseffektes dokumentiert. Kontrovers dazu wurden aber auch anderslautende Meinungen über „natürliche Faktoren“ im Klimasystem aufgezeigt. Bedenken des Verfassers bestehen zur Praktikabilität des Kyoto-Protokolls und zur politischen Anwendbarkeit der IPCC-Berichte, die in der Gefahr stehen, durch ihre nicht ableitbaren Wahrscheinlichkeitsaussagen eine wissenschaftliche Neutralität vermissen zu lassen. Im Blick auf die Klimaschutzpolitik kann Deutschland in der Welt als Vorreiter mit Einschränkungen angesehen werden. Die anwendungsbezogene Klimaforschung wird in Deutschland gefördert, in den USA dagegen die Grundlagenforschung, was mit der Herkunft der Klimaskeptiker einhergeht, die vorwiegend aus dem angloamerikanischen Kulturkreis stammen und kaum aus Deutschland kommen. Dies spiegelt sich als roter Faden in den Forschungsergebnissen verschiedener Medienwissenschaftler wider, wonach die US-Medien im Gegensatz zu deutschen um eine Balance zwischen anthropogenen und natürlichen Ursachen des Klimawandels bemüht sind. Ein in den USA medial präsentierter scheinbarer Dissens der Klimaforschung findet sich als Abbild in heterogenen klimaschutzpolitischen Ausrichtungen der USA auf föderaler und bundesstaatlicher Ebene wieder, wohingegen sich in Deutschland der wissenschaftliche Konsens und die mediale Berichterstattung in einer homogenen Klimaschutzpolitik niederschlagen.

Sensitivity of pelagic calcification to ocean acidification

Ocean acidification might reduce the ability of calcifying plankton to produce and maintain their shells of calcite, or of aragonite, the more soluble form of CaCO3. In addition to possibly large biological impacts, reduced CaCO3 production corresponds to a negative feedback on atmospheric CO2. In order to explore the sensitivity of the ocean carbon cycle to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2, we use the new biogeochemical Bern3D/PISCES model. The model reproduces the large scale distributions of biogeochemical tracers. With a range of sensitivity studies, we explore the effect of (i) using different parameterizations of CaCO3 production fitted to available laboratory and field experiments, of (ii) letting calcite and aragonite be produced by auto- and heterotrophic plankton groups, and of (iii) using carbon emissions from the range of the most recent IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). Under a high-emission scenario, the CaCO3 production of all the model versions decreases from ~1 Pg C yr−1 to between 0.36 and 0.82 Pg C yr−1 by the year 2100. The changes in CaCO3 production and dissolution resulting from ocean acidification provide only a small feedback on atmospheric CO2 of −1 to −11 ppm by the year 2100, despite the wide range of parameterizations, model versions and scenarios included in our study. A potential upper limit of the CO2-calcification/dissolution feedback of −30 ppm by the year 2100 is computed by setting calcification to zero after 2000 in a high 21st century emission scenario. The similarity of feedback estimates yielded by the model version with calcite produced by nanophytoplankton and the one with calcite, respectively aragonite produced by mesozooplankton suggests that expending biogeochemical models to calcifying zooplankton might not be needed to simulate biogeochemical impacts on the marine carbonate cycle. The changes in saturation state confirm previous studies indicating that future anthropogenic CO2 emissions may lead to irreversible changes in ΩA for several centuries. Furthermore, due to the long-term changes in the deep ocean, the ratio of open water CaCO3 dissolution to production stabilizes by the year 2500 at a value that is 30–50% higher than at pre-industrial times when carbon emissions are set to zero after 2100.

Imminent ocean acidification in the Arctic projected with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model

Ocean acidification from the uptake of anthropogenic carbon is simulated for the industrial period and IPCC SRES emission scenarios A2 and B1 with a global coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Earlier studies identified seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite, a mineral phase of calcium carbonate, as a key variable governing impacts on corals and other shell-forming organisms. Globally in the A2 scenario, water saturated by more than 300%, considered suitable for coral growth, vanishes by 2070 AD (CO2≈630 ppm), and the ocean volume fraction occupied by saturated water decreases from 42% to 25% over this century. The largest simulated pH changes worldwide occur in Arctic surface waters, where hydrogen ion concentration increases by up to 185% (ΔpH=−0.45). Projected climate change amplifies the decrease in Arctic surface mean saturation and pH by more than 20%, mainly due to freshening and increased carbon uptake in response to sea ice retreat. Modeled saturation compares well with observation-based estimates along an Arctic transect and simulated changes have been corrected for remaining model-data differences in this region. Aragonite undersaturation in Arctic surface waters is projected to occur locally within a decade and to become more widespread as atmospheric CO2 continues to grow. The results imply that surface waters in the Arctic Ocean will become corrosive to aragonite, with potentially large implications for the marine ecosystem, if anthropogenic carbon emissions are not reduced and atmospheric CO2 not kept below 450 ppm.

Long-term climate change commitment and reversibility: An EMIC Intercomparison

This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to 1) quantify the climate change commitment of different radiative forcing trajectories and 2) explore the extent to which climate change is reversible on human time scales. All commitment simulations follow the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their extensions to year 2300. Most EMICs simulate substantial surface air temperature and thermosteric sea level rise commitment following stabilization of the atmospheric composition at year-2300 levels. The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is weakened temporarily and recovers to near-preindustrial values in most models for RCPs 2.6-6.0. The MOC weakening is more persistent for RCP8.5. Elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions after 2300 results in slowly decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. At year 3000 atmospheric CO2 is still at more than half its year-2300 level in all EMICs for RCPs 4.5-8.5. Surface air temperature remains constant or decreases slightly and thermosteric sea level rise continues for centuries after elimination of CO2 emissions in all EMICs. Restoration of atmospheric CO2 from RCP to preindustrial levels over 100-1000 years requires large artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and does not result in the simultaneous return to preindustrial climate conditions, as surface air temperature and sea level response exhibit a substantial time lag relative to atmospheric CO2.

Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis

The responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other climate variables to an emission pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere are often used to compute the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), to characterize the response timescales of Earth System models, and to build reduced-form models. In this carbon cycle-climate model intercomparison project, which spans the full model hierarchy, we quantify responses to emission pulses of different magnitudes injected under different conditions. The CO2 response shows the known rapid decline in the first few decades followed by a millennium-scale tail. For a 100 Gt-C emission pulse added to a constant CO2 concentration of 389 ppm, 25 ± 9% is still found in the atmosphere after 1000 yr; the ocean has absorbed 59 ± 12% and the land the remainder (16 ± 14%). The response in global mean surface air temperature is an increase by 0.20 ± 0.12 °C within the first twenty years; thereafter and until year 1000, temperature decreases only slightly, whereas ocean heat content and sea level continue to rise. Our best estimate for the Absolute Global Warming Potential, given by the time-integrated response in CO2 at year 100 multiplied by its radiative efficiency, is 92.5 × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. This value very likely (5 to 95% confidence) lies within the range of (68 to 117) × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. Estimates for time-integrated response in CO2 published in the IPCC First, Second, and Fourth Assessment and our multi-model best estimate all agree within 15% during the first 100 yr. The integrated CO2 response, normalized by the pulse size, is lower for pre-industrial conditions, compared to present day, and lower for smaller pulses than larger pulses. In contrast, the response in temperature, sea level and ocean heat content is less sensitive to these choices. Although, choices in pulse size, background concentration, and model lead to uncertainties, the most important and subjective choice to determine AGWP of CO2 and GWP is the time horizon.

Are Greenhouse Gas Signals of Northern Hemisphere winter extra-tropical cyclone activity dependent on the identification and tracking algorithm?

For Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclone activity, the dependency of a potential anthropogenic climate change signal on the identification method applied is analysed. This study investigates the impact of the used algorithm on the changing signal, not the robustness of the climate change signal itself. Using one single transient AOGCM simulation as standard input for eleven state-of-the-art identification methods, the patterns of model simulated present day climatologies are found to be close to those computed from re-analysis, independent of the method applied. Although differences in the total number of cyclones identified exist, the climate change signals (IPCC SRES A1B) in the model run considered are largely similar between methods for all cyclones. Taking into account all tracks, decreasing numbers are found in the Mediterranean, the Arctic in the Barents and Greenland Seas, the mid-latitude Pacific and North America. Changing patterns are even more similar, if only the most severe systems are considered: the methods reveal a coherent statistically significant increase in frequency over the eastern North Atlantic and North Pacific. We found that the differences between the methods considered are largely due to the different role of weaker systems in the specific methods.