Data-Driven Wildfire Propagation Modeling with FARSITE-EnKF

The goal of this study is to provide a framework for future researchers to understand and use the FARSITE wildfire-forecasting model with data assimilation. Current wildfire models lack the ability to provide accurate prediction of fire front position faster than real-time. When FARSITE is coupled with a recursive ensemble filter, the data assimilation forecast method improves. The scope includes an explanation of the standalone FARSITE application, technical details on FARSITE integration with a parallel program coupler called OpenPALM, and a model demonstration of the FARSITE-Ensemble Kalman Filter software using the FireFlux I experiment by Craig Clements. The results show that the fire front forecast is improved with the proposed data-driven methodology than with the standalone FARSITE model.

Contribuições para a deteção automática de fratiras ósseas em imagens de ultrassom

Dissertação de Mestrado, Engenharia Eletrónica e Telecomunicações, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2014

Ecologically relevant characteristics of flow-regime of Rufiji Basin in Tanzania (an ensemble of ecohydrological clues to infer associeted ramifications on dtream and ecosystem)

Dissertação de Mestrado, Ecohidrologia - Erasmus Mundus, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2014

Evaluating tests for convergence of economic series using Monte Carlo methods with an application to real GDP's per head.

Doutoramento em Economia.

Atenuação de ruídos coerentes utilizando decomposição em modos empíricos

The seismic processing technique has the main objective to provide adequate picture of geological structures from subsurface of sedimentary basins. Among the key steps of this process is the enhancement of seismic reflections by filtering unwanted signals, called seismic noise, the improvement of signals of interest and the application of imaging procedures. The seismic noise may appear random or coherent. This dissertation will present a technique to attenuate coherent noise, such as ground roll and multiple reflections, based on Empirical Mode Decomposition method. This method will be applied to decompose the seismic trace into Intrinsic Mode Functions. These functions have the properties of being symmetric, with local mean equals zero and the same number of zero-crossing and extremes. The developed technique was tested on synthetic and real data, and the results were considered encouraging

Estimación de la estructura a plazos de tasas de interés de Colombia utilizando el modelo Diebold, Rudebusch & Aruoba con macrofactores

Se presenta una aproximación a la estructura a plazos de tasas de interés del mercado colombiano a través de dos modelos: Modelo de Diebold, & Li con factores latentes y el modelo de Diebold, Rudebusch & Aruoba con Macrofactores, los cuales fueron estimados utilizando un Filtro de Kalman implementado en MATLAB y posteriormente utilizados para obtener pronósticos de la curva en función del comportamiento esperado de variables macroeconómicas y financieras de la economía local y americana -- La inclusión de los macrofactores se hace esperando mejores proyecciones de la curva, de manera que tener proyecciones de estas variables será de utilidad para conocer el comportamiento futuro de la curva de rendimientos local -- Los modelos se ajustan con datos mensuales, tomando el periodo 2003-2015 y testeado con una porción de esta información; el modelo de factores latentes tiene solo información histórica de la curva cero cupón mientras que en el modelo con macrofactores se consideraron variables como: inflación local 12 meses, CDS 5Y, índice VIX, precios del WTI, TRM, tasa de cambio Euro/Dólar, tasa REPO y tasa FED; obteniendo finalmente dos modelos, siendo el que contiene macrofactores el que tiene mejores indicadores de desempeño en el pronóstico

Processamento Inteligente de Sinais de Pressão e Temperatura Adquiridos Através de Sensores Permanentes em Poços de Petróleo

Originally aimed at operational objectives, the continuous measurement of well bottomhole pressure and temperature, recorded by permanent downhole gauges (PDG), finds vast applicability in reservoir management. It contributes for the monitoring of well performance and makes it possible to estimate reservoir parameters on the long term. However, notwithstanding its unquestionable value, data from PDG is characterized by a large noise content. Moreover, the presence of outliers within valid signal measurements seems to be a major problem as well. In this work, the initial treatment of PDG signals is addressed, based on curve smoothing, self-organizing maps and the discrete wavelet transform. Additionally, a system based on the coupling of fuzzy clustering with feed-forward neural networks is proposed for transient detection. The obtained results were considered quite satisfactory for offshore wells and matched real requisites for utilization

DYNAMIC MODEL BASED STATE ESTIMATION IN A HEAVY DUTY DIESEL AFTERTREATMENT SYSTEM FOR ONBOARD DIAGNOSTICS AND CONTROLS

Estimating un-measurable states is an important component for onboard diagnostics (OBD) and control strategy development in diesel exhaust aftertreatment systems. This research focuses on the development of an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) based state estimator for two of the main components in a diesel engine aftertreatment system: the Diesel Oxidation Catalyst (DOC) and the Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) catalyst. One of the key areas of interest is the performance of these estimators when the catalyzed particulate filter (CPF) is being actively regenerated. In this study, model reduction techniques were developed and used to develop reduced order models from the 1D models used to simulate the DOC and SCR. As a result of order reduction, the number of states in the estimator is reduced from 12 to 1 per element for the DOC and 12 to 2 per element for the SCR. The reduced order models were simulated on the experimental data and compared to the high fidelity model and the experimental data. The results show that the effect of eliminating the heat transfer and mass transfer coefficients are not significant on the performance of the reduced order models. This is shown by an insignificant change in the kinetic parameters between the reduced order and 1D model for simulating the experimental data. An EKF based estimator to estimate the internal states of the DOC and SCR was developed. The DOC and SCR estimators were simulated on the experimental data to show that the estimator provides improved estimation of states compared to a reduced order model. The results showed that using the temperature measurement at the DOC outlet improved the estimates of the CO , NO , NO2 and HC concentrations from the DOC. The SCR estimator was used to evaluate the effect of NH3 and NOX sensors on state estimation quality. Three sensor combinations of NOX sensor only, NH3 sensor only and both NOX and NH3 sensors were evaluated. The NOX only configuration had the worst performance, the NH3 sensor only configuration was in the middle and both the NOX and NH3 sensor combination provided the best performance.

REAL TIME FUZZY CONTROLLER FOR QUADROTOR STABILITY CONTROL

In this report, we develop an intelligent adaptive neuro-fuzzy controller by using adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) techniques. We begin by starting with a standard proportional-derivative (PD) controller and use the PD controller data to train the ANFIS system to develop a fuzzy controller. We then propose and validate a method to implement this control strategy on commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) hardware. An analysis is made into the choice of filters for attitude estimation. These choices are limited by the complexity of the filter and the computing ability and memory constraints of the micro-controller. Simplified Kalman filters are found to be good at estimation of attitude given the above constraints. Using model based design techniques, the models are implemented on an embedded system. This enables the deployment of fuzzy controllers on enthusiast-grade controllers. We evaluate the feasibility of the proposed control strategy in a model-in-the-loop simulation. We then propose a rapid prototyping strategy, allowing us to deploy these control algorithms on a system consisting of a combination of an ARM-based microcontroller and two Arduino-based controllers. We then use a combination of the code generation capabilities within MATLAB/Simulink in combination with multiple open-source projects in order to deploy code to an ARM CortexM4 based controller board. We also evaluate this strategy on an ARM-A8 based board, and a much less powerful Arduino based flight controller. We conclude by proving the feasibility of fuzzy controllers on Commercial-off the shelf (COTS) hardware, we also point out the limitations in the current hardware and make suggestions for hardware that we think would be better suited for memory heavy controllers.

Off-line and On-line Affective Recognition of a Computer User through A Biosignal Processing Approach

Physiological signals, which are controlled by the autonomic nervous system (ANS), could be used to detect the affective state of computer users and therefore find applications in medicine and engineering. The Pupil Diameter (PD) seems to provide a strong indication of the affective state, as found by previous research, but it has not been investigated fully yet. In this study, new approaches based on monitoring and processing the PD signal for off-line and on-line affective assessment (“relaxation” vs. “stress”) are proposed. Wavelet denoising and Kalman filtering methods are first used to remove abrupt changes in the raw Pupil Diameter (PD) signal. Then three features (PDmean, PDmax and PDWalsh) are extracted from the preprocessed PD signal for the affective state classification. In order to select more relevant and reliable physiological data for further analysis, two types of data selection methods are applied, which are based on the paired t-test and subject self-evaluation, respectively. In addition, five different kinds of the classifiers are implemented on the selected data, which achieve average accuracies up to 86.43% and 87.20%, respectively. Finally, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is utilized to investigate the discriminating potential of each individual feature by evaluation of the area under the ROC curve, which reaches values above 0.90. For the on-line affective assessment, a hard threshold is implemented first in order to remove the eye blinks from the PD signal and then a moving average window is utilized to obtain the representative value PDr for every one-second time interval of PD. There are three main steps for the on-line affective assessment algorithm, which are preparation, feature-based decision voting and affective determination. The final results show that the accuracies are 72.30% and 73.55% for the data subsets, which were respectively chosen using two types of data selection methods (paired t-test and subject self-evaluation). In order to further analyze the efficiency of affective recognition through the PD signal, the Galvanic Skin Response (GSR) was also monitored and processed. The highest affective assessment classification rate obtained from GSR processing is only 63.57% (based on the off-line processing algorithm). The overall results confirm that the PD signal should be considered as one of the most powerful physiological signals to involve in future automated real-time affective recognition systems, especially for detecting the “relaxation” vs. “stress” states.

Condução autónoma – localização de um veículo com base em odometria, IMU e GPS

A Condução de um veículo automóvel tem-se tornado cada vez mais automatizada ao longo dos anos. Este processo tem-se vindo a desenvolver com o intuito de facilitar cada vez mais a condução dos veículos, de prevenir acidentes rodoviários ou ainda de ser utilizado em operações militares. Este trabalho tem como principal foco o estudo da aplicação de dois dos principais métodos de cálculo da localização probabilística à localização de um veículo automóvel autónomo: o Filtro Estendido de Kalman e o Filtro de Partículas. Foram implementadas várias versões de ambos os filtros, quer em simulação, quer num veículo real, tendo por base, em termos de sensores, a odometria do robô, uma unidade inercial e um GPS. Este trabalho surge na continuação de vários projetos anteriores, com foco no desenvolvimento de um veículo autónomo de baixo custo, acrescentando-lhe a funcionalidade de se localizar. Neste sentido, o trabalho desenvolvido servirá de base para a navegação autónoma em trabalhos futuros.

La concentración de calcio iónico se asocia a la presencia de fibrilación auricular post operatoria en pacientes llevados a revascularización miocardica

Objetivo. Determinar en un grupo de pacientes llevados a revascularización miocárdica si existió asociación entre la presencia de niveles de calcio iónico inferiores a 1,1 en las 24 horas del post operatorio y la ocurrencia de fibrilación auricular post operatoria. Metodología. Estudio observacional, analítico de casos y controles, en donde de manera consecutiva se incluyeron 110 sujetos (57 en el grupo de casos con presencia de fibrilación auricular post operatoria y 54 en el grupo de controles sin evidencia de fibrilación auricular) estos sujetos fueron llevados a revascularización miocárdica en la Fundación Cardioinfantil en los años 2010 a 2015. Resultados. Hubo 13 casos de fibrilación auricular post operatoria en pacientes con niveles de calcio iónico inferiores a 1,1 mmol/l en las primeras 24 horas del post operatorio OR: 0,5, IC (0,2-1,2) p: 0,1. Sin determinarse asociación por limitaciones del estudio, sin embargo un 29% de los pacientes con fibrilación auricular tuvieron niveles de calcio inferiores a 1,1 mmol/l en las primeras 24 horas del post operatorio, este valor aumenta a 31% cuando se analizan por separado los valores de calcio obtenidos a las 12 horas. Conclusiones. Aunque no se logró determinar asociación entre la fibrilación auricular post operatoria y las concentraciones de calcio iónico, de manera exploratoria se pudo establecer que un 29% de los pacientes con fibrilación auricular tuvieron concentraciones de calcio iónico inferiores a 1,1 mmol/l, este valor aumenta a 31% cuando se analizan los niveles de calcio iónico por separado.

Tratamento de dados associados com a radiação solar fornecidos pelo Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera, Madeira

Este relatório técnico tem como objetivo descrever o modo como os registos das amostras de dados, i.e., medições das grandezas meteorológicas fornecidas pelo Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA), ilha da Madeira, foram tratadas. Foram utilizados registos de oito estações meteorológicas distribuídas pela ilha. No relatório técnico estão descritos os processos de filtragem das medições de radiação solar global e radiação solar difusa, de temperatura máxima e mínima do ar, a correção da radiação solar difusa, o preenchimento de lacunas nas medições e a dimensão da amostra de dados utilizada em cada estação. Este relatório também descreve os métodos utilizados para preencher as lacunas nas séries de dados originais, bem como os métodos utilizados na construção do ano médio e do ano meteorológico típico. O ano meteorológico típico será posteriormente usado na simulação da produção de energia solar através de sistemas fotovoltaicos instalados na ilha da Madeira.

Perspetivas de utilização do potencial eólico em Timor-Leste

A exigência energética global está mais orientada para a utilização das fontes de Energias Renováveis (FERs), comprometendo e garantindo um desenvolvimento sustentável. Este trabalho tem como objetivo contribuir para o atingir das metas do PED 2011-2030, no que refere à utilização das FER, em particular do potencial eólico em Timor-Leste. Timor-Leste tem apresentado um grande interesse na política de aproveitamento de FER para alcançar a meta de longo prazo de PED 2030, comprometendo-se com o desenvolvimento sustentável através de ERs. Este trabalho pretende contribuir em particular com o estudo do aproveitamento de energia eólica. Com base no clima do vento de longo termo entre 2004 – 2012, da estação meteorológica (EM) de Díli e conjugando estes com os dados da campanha experimental de Martifer cedidos, de Dezembro 2008 - Novembro 2009, obteve-se o coeficiente de variabilidade (Cvariab.) inter-anual. Foi assim possível construir o mapa médio do vento de longo termo, com modelo atmosférico de mesoscala, numa resolução refinada de 3×3 km. Para a identificação dos locais mais favoráveis do vento, foi utilizado o modelo ArcGIS para georreferenciação do recurso. A filtragem das restrições e os constrangimentos do terreno permitiu construir o mapa do vento sustentável de Timor-Leste, por distritos, subdistritos, sucos, do enclave de Oecússi e a ilha de Atauro, o que conduziu à hierarquização de cinco zonas favoráveis (zona 1 - 5). A contribuição para o plano energético de Timor-Leste consiste em duas fases: - a 1ª fase o aproveitamento eólico em três PEs nas zonas monitorizadas (3 e 5) oriundo de dados cedidos pela Martifer, contabilizou-se um total de 424.694 MWh de produção de energia anual, tendo-se verificado o custo normalizado de energia (LCOE) no valor médio calculado de 0,046 €/kWh; - na 2ª fase a construção de acesso e o desenvolvimento de PEs nas zonas 1, 2 e 4 para o Cenário de Max-Renovável. Assim sendo, viabilizam a "Perspetiva de Utilização da Energia Eólica" no quadro do PED 2011 - 2030 de Timor-Leste, que viria reduzir o custo de produção de energia atual, e a emissão de CO2; Abstract: Prospects of Using Wind Energy in Timor-Leste The demand for global energy is more focused on the use of Reneweable Energy sources (REs), ensuring and committing itself to sustainable development. This study was prompted by the wish to contribute to the achievement the goals of the Strategic Development Plan (PED 2011-2030) regarding the use of REs, particularly the wind energy in Timor-Leste. Timor-Leste has presented a great interest in the use of renewable energy sources policy to achieve the long term goal of the PED 2030, committing to a sustainable development through renewable energy. This thesis intends to contribute in particular with the study of the use of wind energy. Based on the long term wind climate between 2004 and 2012 of the Díli weather station and combining these data with the Martifer campaign experimental data of December 2008 - November 2009, the interannual variation coefficient (Cv) was obtained. Thus, it was possible to build the map of long term average wind with atmospheric mesoscale model in a refined resolution of 3×3 km. The ArcGIS model was used for the identification of the most favorable locations of the wind for its georeferencing. The constraining of filtering and the constraints of the terrain allowed to construe the sustainable wind map of Timor-Leste in distritos, subdistritos, sucos, and also of the enclave of Oecussi and Atauro island, which led to the ranking of five favorable areas (zone 1-5) for an immediate experimental campaign of wind characterization and utilization of this resource in wind parks. The contribution to Timor-Leste's energy plan consists of two phases: - the first phase of three wind farms in zone (3 and 5) from data provided by Martifer, a total of 424,694 MWh, and levelyzed cost of electricity (LCOE) in the calculated average value of 0.046 €/kWh; - in the second phase the construction of access and development of wind farms in zones 1, 2 and 4 for the Max-Renewable Scenario. As such, they make possible the "Perspective of Wind Energy Use" in Timor Leste’s PED 2011 - 2030, which would reduce current energy production costs and CO2 emissions.

Utilização do método de hidrolise de diacetato de fluoresceina (FDA) como indicador de atividade microbiana no solo e supressividade a fitopatógenos.

A supressividade de solos e influenciada pela atividade microbiana, porém sua avaliação muitas vezes apresenta problemas. O método de hidrolise de FDA avalia a atividade celular nas amostras de solo, visto que a hidrolise e realizada por diversas enzimas. Amostras de 5g de solo são colocadas em frascos de Erlenmeyer (250 ml), juntamente com 20 ml de tampão fosfato de potássio (60 mM; pH 7,6). A reação de hidrolise de FDA e iniciada adicionando-se 0,2ml de solução estoque de FDA(2mg FDA/ml acetona). As amostras são incubadas por 20 min. em agitador (200 rpm) a 25o C. A reação é interrompida através da adição de 20 ml de acetona por frasco. A seguir procede-se a filtragem (Whatman n.1), coletando-se o filtrado em tubos de cultivo acondicionados em recipiente com gelo. Em espectrofotometro, determina-se a absorbancia (490nm) do filtrado. A concentração de FDA hidrolisado e obtida através de uma curva padrão feita conforme a metodologia descrita, porem adicionando-se conhecidas quantidades de FDA hidrolisado (60 min. em agua fervendo) as amostras. Altas correlações foram obtidas entre a taxa de hidrólise de FDA, de solos submetidos a diferentes cultivos (mata, pastagem, cana-de-açúcar e culturas anuais), e a supressividade a Rhizoctonia solani.