Fast and frugal models of clinical judgement in novice and expert physicians

Our objective was to study whether “compensatory” models provide better descriptions of clinical judgment than fast and frugal models, according to expertise and experience. Fifty practitioners appraised 60 vignettes describing a child with an exacerbation of asthma and rated their propensities to admit the child. Linear logistic (LL) models of their judgments were compared with a matching heuristic (MH) model that searched available cues in order of importance for a critical value indicating an admission decision. There was a small difference between the 2 models in the proportion of patients allocated correctly (admit or not-admit decisions), 91.2% and 87.8%, respectively. The proportion allocated correctly by the LL model was lower for consultants than juniors, whereas the MH model performed equally well for both. In this vignette study, neither model provided any better description of judgments made by consultants or by pediatricians compared to other grades and specialties.

Anterior thalmic lesions stop immediate early gene activation in selective laminae of the retrosplenial cortex: evidence of covert pathology in rats

Lesions involving the anterior thalamic nuclei stopped immediate early gene (IEG) activity in specific regions of the rat retrosplenial cortex, even though there were no apparent cytoarchitectonic changes. Discrete anterior thalamic lesions were made either by excitotoxin (Experiment 1) or radiofrequency (Experiment 2) and, following recovery, the rats foraged in a radial-arm maze in a novel room. Measurements made 6-12 weeks postsurgery showed that, in comparison with surgical controls, the thalamic lesions produced the same, selective patterns of Fos changes irrespective of method. Granular (caudal granular cortex and rostral granular cortex), but not dysgranular (dysgranular cortex), retrosplenial cortex showed a striking loss of Fos-positive cells. While a loss of between 79 and 89% of Fos-positive cells was found in the superficial laminae, the deeper layers appeared normal. In Experiments 3 and 4, rats 9-10 months postsurgery were placed in an activity box for 30 min. Anterior thalamic lesions (Experiment 3) led to a pronounced IEG decrease of both Fos and zif268 throughout the retrosplenial cortex that now included the dysgranular area. These IEG losses were found even though the same regions appeared normal using standard histological techniques. Lesions of the postrhinal cortex (Experiment 4) did not bring about a loss of retrosplenial IEG activity even though this region is also reciprocally connected with the retrosplenial cortex. This selective effect of anterior thalamic damage upon retrosplenial activity may both amplify the disruptive effects of anterior thalamic lesions and help to explain the posterior cingulate hypoactivity found in Alzheimer's disease.

Changes in fos expression in the rat brain after unilateral lesions of the anterior thalamic nuclei

Activity of the immediate early gene c-fos was compared across hemispheres in rats with unilateral anterior thalamic lesions. Fos protein was quantified after rats performed a spatial working memory test in the radial-arm maze, a task that is sensitive to bilateral lesions of the anterior thalamic nuclei. Unilateral anterior thalamic lesions produced evidence of a widespread hippocampal hypoactivity, as there were significant reductions in Fos counts in a range of regions within the ipsilateral hippocampal formation (rostral CA1, rostral dentate gyrus, 'dorsal' hippocampus, presubiculum and postsubiculum). A decrease in Fos levels was also found in the rostral and caudal retrosplenial cortex but not in the parahippocampal cortices or anterior cingulate cortices. The Fos changes seem most closely linked to sites that are also required for successful task performance, supporting the notion that the anterior thalamus, retrosplenial cortex and hippocampus form key components of an interdependent neuronal network involved in spatial mnemonic processing.

Fos imaging reveals that lesions of the anterior thalamic nuclei produce widespread limbic hypoactivity in rats

Activity of the immediate early gene c-fos was compared in rats with neurotoxic lesions of the anterior thalamic nuclei and in surgical controls. Fos levels were measured after rats had been placed in a novel room and allowed to run up and down preselected arms of a radial maze. An additional control group showed that in normal rats, this exposure to a novel room leads to a Fos increase in a number of structures, including the anterior thalamic nuclei and hippocampus. In contrast, rats with anterior thalamic lesions were found to have significantly less Fos-positive cells in an array of sites, including the hippocampus (dorsal and ventral), retrosplenial cortex, anterior cingulate cortex, and prelimbic cortex. These results show that anterior thalamic lesions disrupt multiple limbic brain regions, producing hypoactivity in sites associated in rats with spatial memory. Because many of the same sites are implicated in memory processes in humans (e.g., the hippocampus and retrosplenial cortex), this hypoactivity might contribute to diencephalic amnesia.

New dates for first millennium BC tephra isochrones in Ireland

Three distinct, first millennium BC tephras (BMR-190, OMH-185, GB4-150) have been recognized in Irish peat deposits, including a previously undated ash (BMR-190). We present the results of a programme of high-precision 14C wiggle-matching on a peat profile containing all three tephras from Glen West, County Fermanagh, Northern Ireland. The wiggle-match provides highly refined dates of 705-585cal. BC for BMR-190, 755-680cal. BC for OMH-185 and 800-758cal. BC for GB4-150. The tephras constitute valuable, widespread isochrones for palaeoecological research across the first millennium BC, when a prolonged 14C calibration plateau between 750 and 400 cal. BC presents a major problem to dating and correlating palaeoenvironmental events from multisite, multiproxy studies of the period.

Mire ontogeny, environmental and climate change inferred from fossil beetle successions from Hatfield Moors, eastern England

Results of a fossil Coleoptera (beetle) fauna from a fen edge sequence from Hatfield Moors, Humberhead Levels, are presented. Mire ontogeny inferred from this location and others are discussed, particularly in the light of previous palynological and plant macrofossil investigations. Peat initiation across most of the site centres around 3000 cal BC, characterised by a Calluna-Eriophorum heath with areas of Pinus-Betula woodland. The onset of peat accumulation on the southern margins of the site was delayed until 1520-1390 cal BC and appears to overlap closely with a recurrence surface at a pollen site (HAT 2) studied by Brian Smith (1985, 2002) dated to 1610-1440 cal BC, suggesting that increased surface wetness may have caused mire expansion at this time. The faunas illustrate the transition from eutrophic and mesotrophic fen to ombrotrophic raised mire, although the significance of both Pinus- and Calluna-indicating species through the sequence suggests that heath habitats may have continued to be important. Elsewhere, this earlier phase of rich fen is lacking and mesotrophic mire developed immediately above nutrient poor sands, with ombrotrophic conditions indicated soon after. Correspondence analysis of the faunas provides valuable insights into the importance of sandy heath habitats on Hatfield Moors. The continuing influence of the underlying coversands suggests these may have been instrumental in mire ontogeny. The research highlights the usefulness of using Coleoptera to assess mire ontogeny, fluctuations in site hydrology and vegetation cover, particularly when used in conjunction with other peatland proxies. The significance of a suite of extinct beetle species is discussed with reference to forest history and climate change.

The Holocene British and Irish ancient woodland fossil beetle fauna: implications for forest history, biodiversity and faunal colonisation

This paper presents a new review of our knowledge of the ancient forest beetle fauna from Holocene archaeological and palaeoecological sites in Great Britain and Ireland. It examines the colonisation, dispersal and decline of beetle species, highlighting the scale and nature of human activities in the shaping of the landscape of the British Isles. In particular, the paper discusses effects upon the insect fauna, and examines in detail the fossil record from the Humberhead Levels, eastern England. It discusses the local extirpation of up to 40 species in Britain and 15 species in Ireland. An evaluation of the timing of extirpations is made, suggesting that many species in Britain disappear from the fossil record between c. 3000 cal BC and 1000 cal BC (c. 5000-3000 cal BP), although some taxa may well have survived until considerably later. In Ireland, there are two distinct trends, with a group of species which seem to be absent after c. 2000 cal BC (c. 4000 cal BP) and a further group which survives until at least as late as the medieval period. The final clearance of the Irish landscape over the last few hundred years was so dramatic, however, that some species which are not especially unusual in a British context were decimated. Reasons behind the extirpation of taxa are examined in detail, and include a combination of forest clearance and human activities, isolation of populations, lack of temporal continuity of habitats, edaphic and competition factors affecting distribution of host trees (particularly pine), lack of forest fires and a decline in open forest systems. The role of climate change in extirpations is also evaluated. Consideration is given to the significance of these specialised ancient forest inhabitants in Ireland in the absence of an early Holocene land-bridge which suggests that colonisation was aided by other mechanisms, such as human activities and wood-rafting. Finally, the paper discusses the Continental origins of the British and Irish fauna and its hosts and the role played by European glacial refugia.

Do pigs form preferential associations?

This investigation examined whether pigs form long-term preferential associations or ‘friendships’ and factors that may influence the formation of these relationships. Thirty-three pigs from 16 litters were housed together from 4 weeks of age. At 10 weeks they were split into two groups of 16 and 17 pigs and each introduced into 3.05 m × 3.66 m observation pens (1st pen). At 17 weeks the two groups swapped pens (2nd pen). The lying patterns of each group were recorded over 3 weeks in both the 1st and 2nd pens. To identify dyads with preferential associations, association indices were calculated for each pair based on their lying patterns and analysed using SOCPROG1.3 and the permutation method [Whitehead, H., 1999. Programs for analysing social structure. SOCPROG 1.2, http://is.dal.cal/~whitelab/index.htm]. Dyads with high association indices for at least 2 out of 3 weeks in either pen, i.e. =0.10 (twice the mean), were classed as having preferential associations. Mantel tests were used to examine the relationship between the relative sex, weight, familiarity and relatedness of a dyad and their level of association and to examine consistency of associations between pens. The existence of preferential associations was identified in both groups, since the standard deviations for the observed half-weight association index means were significantly higher than for the randomly permuted half-weight association index means (P < 0.001). Of the 33 pigs observed, 32 formed preferential associations with one or more pigs in their group, resulting in 50 dyads. Only six dyads (12 pigs) formed preferential associations in both pens, suggesting that the remaining dyads either formed short-term associations only or were simply displaying a shared preference for the same lying location. Levels of association between pens showed no significant correlation. The relative sex, weight, familiarity and relatedness of dyad members also showed no significant correlation with their level of association. These findings suggest that unrelated pigs are capable of forming preferential associations. However, it is unclear whether such associations are widespread or important to pigs, since most dyads’ preferential associations were not consistent between pens.