Assessing urban mobility through participatory scenario building and combined utility-regret assessment

La planificación de la movilidad sostenible urbana es una tarea compleja que implica un alto grado de incertidumbre debido al horizonte de planificación a largo plazo, la amplia gama de paquetes de políticas posibles, la necesidad de una aplicación efectiva y eficiente, la gran escala geográfica, la necesidad de considerar objetivos económicos, sociales y ambientales, y la respuesta del viajero a los diferentes cursos de acción y su aceptabilidad política (Shiftan et al., 2003). Además, con las tendencias inevitables en motorización y urbanización, la demanda de terrenos y recursos de movilidad en las ciudades está aumentando dramáticamente. Como consecuencia de ello, los problemas de congestión de tráfico, deterioro ambiental, contaminación del aire, consumo de energía, desigualdades en la comunidad, etc. se hacen más y más críticos para la sociedad. Esta situación no es estable a largo plazo. Para enfrentarse a estos desafíos y conseguir un desarrollo sostenible, es necesario considerar una estrategia de planificación urbana a largo plazo, que aborde las necesarias implicaciones potencialmente importantes. Esta tesis contribuye a las herramientas de evaluación a largo plazo de la movilidad urbana estableciendo una metodología innovadora para el análisis y optimización de dos tipos de medidas de gestión de la demanda del transporte (TDM). La metodología nueva realizado se basa en la flexibilización de la toma de decisiones basadas en utilidad, integrando diversos mecanismos de decisión contrariedad‐anticipada y combinados utilidad‐contrariedad en un marco integral de planificación del transporte. La metodología propuesta incluye dos aspectos principales: 1) La construcción de escenarios con una o varias medidas TDM usando el método de encuesta que incorpora la teoría “regret”. La construcción de escenarios para este trabajo se hace para considerar específicamente la implementación de cada medida TDM en el marco temporal y marco espacial. Al final, se construyen 13 escenarios TDM en términos del más deseable, el más posible y el de menor grado de “regret” como resultado de una encuesta en dos rondas a expertos en el tema. 2) A continuación se procede al desarrollo de un marco de evaluación estratégica, basado en un Análisis Multicriterio de Toma de Decisiones (Multicriteria Decision Analysis, MCDA) y en un modelo “regret”. Este marco de evaluación se utiliza para comparar la contribución de los distintos escenarios TDM a la movilidad sostenible y para determinar el mejor escenario utilizando no sólo el valor objetivo de utilidad objetivo obtenido en el análisis orientado a utilidad MCDA, sino también el valor de “regret” que se calcula por medio del modelo “regret” MCDA. La función objetivo del MCDA se integra en un modelo de interacción de uso del suelo y transporte que se usa para optimizar y evaluar los impactos a largo plazo de los escenarios TDM previamente construidos. Un modelo de “regret”, llamado “referencedependent regret model (RDRM)” (modelo de contrariedad dependiente de referencias), se ha adaptado para analizar la contribución de cada escenario TDM desde un punto de vista subjetivo. La validación de la metodología se realiza mediante su aplicación a un caso de estudio en la provincia de Madrid. La metodología propuesta define pues un procedimiento técnico detallado para la evaluación de los impactos estratégicos de la aplicación de medidas de gestión de la demanda en el transporte, que se considera que constituye una herramienta de planificación útil, transparente y flexible, tanto para los planificadores como para los responsables de la gestión del transporte. Planning sustainable urban mobility is a complex task involving a high degree of uncertainty due to the long‐term planning horizon, the wide spectrum of potential policy packages, the need for effective and efficient implementation, the large geographical scale, the necessity to consider economic, social, and environmental goals, and the traveller’s response to the various action courses and their political acceptability (Shiftan et al., 2003). Moreover, with the inevitable trends on motorisation and urbanisation, the demand for land and mobility in cities is growing dramatically. Consequently, the problems of traffic congestion, environmental deterioration, air pollution, energy consumption, and community inequity etc., are becoming more and more critical for the society (EU, 2011). Certainly, this course is not sustainable in the long term. To address this challenge and achieve sustainable development, a long‐term perspective strategic urban plan, with its potentially important implications, should be established. This thesis contributes on assessing long‐term urban mobility by establishing an innovative methodology for optimizing and evaluating two types of transport demand management measures (TDM). The new methodology aims at relaxing the utility‐based decision‐making assumption by embedding anticipated‐regret and combined utilityregret decision mechanisms in an integrated transport planning framework. The proposed methodology includes two major aspects: 1) Construction of policy scenarios within a single measure or combined TDM policy‐packages using the survey method incorporating the regret theory. The purpose of building the TDM scenarios in this work is to address the specific implementation in terms of time frame and geographic scale for each TDM measure. Finally, 13 TDM scenarios are built in terms of the most desirable, the most expected and the least regret choice by means of the two‐round Delphi based survey. 2) Development of the combined utility‐regret analysis framework based on multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). This assessment framework is used to compare the contribution of the TDM scenario towards sustainable mobility and to determine the best scenario considering not only the objective utility value obtained from the utilitybased MCDA, but also a regret value that is calculated via a regret‐based MCDA. The objective function of the utility‐based MCDA is integrated in a land use and transport interaction model and is used for optimizing and assessing the long term impacts of the constructed TDM scenarios. A regret based model, called referente dependent regret model (RDRM) is adapted to analyse the contribution of each TDM scenario in terms of a subjective point of view. The suggested methodology is implemented and validated in the case of Madrid. It defines a comprehensive technical procedure for assessing strategic effects of transport demand management measures, which can be useful, transparent and flexible planning tool both for planners and decision‐makers.

Methodology for assessing regional economic impacts of charging HGVs in Spain: an integrated approach through a random utility based multiregional input-output and a road transportation network model

An integrated approach composed of a random utility-based multiregional input-output model and a road transport network model was developed for evaluating the application of a fee to heavy-goods vehicles (HGVs) in Spain. For this purpose, a distance-based charge scenario (in euros per vehicle kilometer) for HGVs was evaluated for a selected motorway network in Spain. Although the aim of this charging policy was to increase the efficiency of transport, the approach strongly identified direct and indirect impacts on the regional economy. Estimates of the magnitude and extent of indirect effects on aggregated macroeconomic indicators (employment and gross domestic product) are provided. The macroeconomic effects of the charging policy were found to be positive for some regions and negative for other regions.

A random utility based multiregional input-output approach to estimate the impact of a new highway on the regional distribution of jobs

This paper addresses the economic impact assessment of the construction of a new road on the regional distribution of jobs. The paper summarizes different existing model approaches considered to assess economic impacts through a literature review. Afterwards, we present the development of a comprehensive approach for analyzing the interaction of new transport infrastructure and the economic impact through an integrated model. This model has been applied to the construction of the motorway A-40 in Spain (497 Km.) which runs across three regions without passing though Madrid City. This may in turn lead to the relocation of labor and capital due to the improvement of accessibility of markets or inputs. The result suggests the existence of direct and indirect effects in other regions derived from the improvement of the transportation infrastructure, and confirms the relevance of road freight transport in some regions. We found that the changes in regional employment are substantial for some regions (increasing or decreasing jobs), but a t the same time negligible in other regions. As a result,the approach provides broad guidance to national governments and other transport-related parties about the impacts of this transport policy.

An Integrated Transport Planning Framework Involving a Combined Utility-Regret Approach

Sustainable transport planning requires an integrated approach involving strategic planning, impact analysis and multi-criteria evaluation. This study aims at relaxing the utility-based decision-making assumption by newly embedding anticipated-regret and combined utility-regret decision mechanisms in an integrated transport planning framework. The framework consists of a two-round Delphi survey, an integrated land-use and transport model for Madrid, and multi-criteria analysis. Results show that (i) regret-based ranking has similar mean but larger variance than utility-based ranking; (ii) the least-regret scenario forms a compromise between the desired and the expected scenarios; (iii) the least-regret scenario can lead to higher user benefits in the short-term and lower user benefits in the long-term; (iv) utility-based, regret-based and combined utility-regret-based multi-criteria analysis result in different rankings of policy packages; and (v) the combined utility-regret ranking is more informative compared with utility-based or regret-based ranking.

Visualizador de programas Java concurrentes

El presente trabajo fin de grado, que, a partir de ahora, denominaré TFG, consiste en elaborar una monitorización de programas concurrentes en lenguaje Java, para que se visualicen los eventos ocurridos durante la ejecución de los dichos programas. Este trabajo surge en el marco de la asignatura “Concurrencia” de la Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería Informática de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, impartida por D. Julio Mariño y D. Ángel Herranz. El objetivo principal de este proyecto es crear una herramienta para el aprendizaje de la asignatura de concurrencia, facilitando la comprensión de los conceptos teóricos, de modo que puedan corregir los posibles errores que haya en sus prácticas. en este proyecto se expone el desarrollo de una librería de visualización de programas concurrentes programados en Java usando un formalismo gráfico similar al empleado en la asignatura. Además esta librería da soporte a los mecanismos de sincronización usados en las prácticas de la asignatura: la librería Monitor (desarrollada por los profesores de la asignatura, D. Ángel Herranz y D. Julio Mariño) y la librería JCSP (Universidad de Kent). ---ABSTRACT---This Bachelor Thesis addresses the problem of monitoring a Java program in order to trace and visualize a certain set of events produced during the execution of concurrent Java programs. This work originates in the subject "Concurrency" of the Computer Science and Engineering degree of our University. The main goal of this work is to have a tool that helps students learning the subject, so they can better understand the core concepts and correct common mistakes in the course practical work. We have implemented a library for visualizing concurrent Java programsusing a graphical notation similar to the one used in class, which supports the design of concurrent programs whose synchronization mechanisms are either monitors(using the Monitor package) or CSP(as implemented in the JCSP library from Kent University).

Infraestructura para la comunicación entre componentes Java en el estilo arquitectónico C2

En este trabajo se describe el diseñno y la implementación de una infraestructura para la comunicación entre componentes que sigan el estilo arquitectóonico C2 sobre una plataforma Java. Un requisito de esta infraestructura es que componentes y conectores se ejecuten cada uno en su propia máquina virtual (JVM) en el mismo nodo o en nodos diferentes. Se ha diseñado un conjunto de clases que proporcionan mecanismos para la comunicación entre componentes y conectores C2. Como parte del trabajo, se han evaluado las tecnologías disponibles para Java que permiten construir la infraestructura, habiéndose elegido la invocación remota a método (RMI) como la base para la comunicación entre los componentes del sistema

Performance and Professional Skills in an Online Java Programming Course for Engineering Students

The main purpose of this work is to describe the case of an online Java Programming course for engineering students to learn computer programming and to practice other non-technicalabilities: online training, self-assessment, teamwork and use of foreign languages. It is important that students develop confidence and competence in these skills, which will be required later in their professional tasks and/or in other engineering courses (life-long learning). Furthermore, this paper presents the pedagogical methodology, the results drawn from this experience and an objective performance comparison with another conventional (face-to-face) Java course.

Qualitative operational value at risk for an electric utility based on the guidelines of the basel committee

This paper presents a model for determining value at operational risk ?OpVaR? in electric utilities, with the aim to confirm the versatility of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) proposals. The model intends to open a new methodological approach in risk management, paying special attention to underlying operational sources of risk.

Incorporating equity into transport planning: utility, priority and sufficiency approaches

The analysis addresses the issue of transport equity and explores three different approaches to equity in transport: utilitarianism, sufficientarianism and prioritarianism. Each approach calls for a different treatment of the benefits reaped by different population groups in the assessment of transport investments or policies. In utilitarianism, which underlies much of the current practice of transport project appraisal, all benefits receive the same weight, irrespective of the recipient of the benefits. In both sufficientarianism and prioritarianism, benefits are weighed in distinct ways, depending on the characteristics of the recipients. The three approaches are illustrated using a fictive case study, in which three different transport investment are assessed and compared to each other. Finally, the assessment of transport investments will be explored using the cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The CEA assesses the distributional effects of transport investments for utilitarism, sufficientarism and prioritarism approaches and addresses distinct needs associated with different population groups in respect to their transport

Programación en lenguaje Java de algoritmo Zig-Zag para procesado de archivos MIDI

El siguiente proyecto versa sobre la programación en lenguaje java del algoritmo de humanización MIDI desarrollado por Jorge Grundman en su tesis La Humanización de la Interpretación Virtual: Tres ejemplos significativos de la obra de Chopin. Este algoritmo, denominado Zig-Zag tiene como finalidad lograr que una partitura interpretada por un ordenador tenga unas características similares a la lectura a primera vista de la misma por un pianista. Para ello, basa su funcionamiento en una aleatorización del tempo en base a una serie de parámetros, a una modificación de la dinámica acorde a la modificación de tempo y a una segunda aleatorización para cada figura de la partitura. Este algoritmo tiene un gran campo de aplicación como complemento a los diversos secuenciadores y editores de partituras que existen en la actualidad, proporcionando nuevas características a los mismos. La programación del algoritmo se ha llevado a cabo empleando el Java SDK (Standard Developement Kit) 7 y las herramientas que proporciona esta plataforma para el manejo y modificación de los mensajes MIDI. ABSTRACT. The next project is about the programming in Java language of the MIDI humanization algorithm developed by Jorge Grundman in his thesis La Humanización de la Interpretación Virtual: Tres ejemplos significativos de la obra de Chopin. This algorithm, called Zig-Zag aims to have similar characteristics in a score performed by a computer than in the sight reading by a pianist. To this end, it bases its process in a randomization of the tempo from several parameters, a modification of the dynamic according to the change of tempo and a second randomization for each figure in the score. This algorithm has a big scope of application as complement for the different sequencers and score editors that already exist, providing new features to them. The algorithm has been programmed using the Java SDK (Standard Development Kit) 7 and the tools that this platform provides to handle and modify MIDI messages.

Feasibility and utility of population-level geospatial injury profiling : prospective, national cohort study

The Health Services Research Unit receives funding from the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors alone. The GEOS study was funded by the North of Scotland Planning Group.