Methods for Estimating Annual Exceedance-Probability Discharges for Streams in Iowa, Based on Data through Water Year 2010, TR-519, 2013

A statewide study was performed to develop regional regression equations for estimating selected annual exceedance- probability statistics for ungaged stream sites in Iowa. The study area comprises streamgages located within Iowa and 50 miles beyond the State’s borders. Annual exceedanceprobability estimates were computed for 518 streamgages by using the expected moments algorithm to fit a Pearson Type III distribution to the logarithms of annual peak discharges for each streamgage using annual peak-discharge data through 2010. The estimation of the selected statistics included a Bayesian weighted least-squares/generalized least-squares regression analysis to update regional skew coefficients for the 518 streamgages. Low-outlier and historic information were incorporated into the annual exceedance-probability analyses, and a generalized Grubbs-Beck test was used to detect multiple potentially influential low flows. Also, geographic information system software was used to measure 59 selected basin characteristics for each streamgage. Regional regression analysis, using generalized leastsquares regression, was used to develop a set of equations for each flood region in Iowa for estimating discharges for ungaged stream sites with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities, which are equivalent to annual flood-frequency recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively. A total of 394 streamgages were included in the development of regional regression equations for three flood regions (regions 1, 2, and 3) that were defined for Iowa based on landform regions and soil regions. Average standard errors of prediction range from 31.8 to 45.2 percent for flood region 1, 19.4 to 46.8 percent for flood region 2, and 26.5 to 43.1 percent for flood region 3. The pseudo coefficients of determination for the generalized leastsquares equations range from 90.8 to 96.2 percent for flood region 1, 91.5 to 97.9 percent for flood region 2, and 92.4 to 96.0 percent for flood region 3. The regression equations are applicable only to stream sites in Iowa with flows not significantly affected by regulation, diversion, channelization, backwater, or urbanization and with basin characteristics within the range of those used to develop the equations. These regression equations will be implemented within the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats Web-based geographic information system tool. StreamStats allows users to click on any ungaged site on a river and compute estimates of the eight selected statistics; in addition, 90-percent prediction intervals and the measured basin characteristics for the ungaged sites also are provided by the Web-based tool. StreamStats also allows users to click on any streamgage in Iowa and estimates computed for these eight selected statistics are provided for the streamgage.

Typing less common ovarian tumors: A training tool based on a pattern-based algorithm applied to a set of 20 virtual slides.

Context: Ovarian tumors (OT) typing is a competency expected from pathologists, with significant clinical implications. OT however come in numerous different types, some rather rare, with the consequence of few opportunities for practice in some departments. Aim: Our aim was to design a tool for pathologists to train in less common OT typing. Method and Results: Representative slides of 20 less common OT were scanned (Nano Zoomer Digital Hamamatsu®) and the diagnostic algorithm proposed by Young and Scully applied to each case (Young RH and Scully RE, Seminars in Diagnostic Pathology 2001, 18: 161-235) to include: recognition of morphological pattern(s); shortlisting of differential diagnosis; proposition of relevant immunohistochemical markers. The next steps of this project will be: evaluation of the tool in several post-graduate training centers in Europe and Québec; improvement of its design based on evaluation results; diffusion to a larger public. Discussion: In clinical medicine, solving many cases is recognized as of utmost importance for a novice to become an expert. This project relies on the virtual slides technology to provide pathologists with a learning tool aimed at increasing their skills in OT typing. After due evaluation, this model might be extended to other uncommon tumors.

On the connectivity of the escaping set for complex exponential Misiurewicz parameters

Let $ E_{\lambda}(z)=\lambda {\rm exp}(z), \lambda\in \mathbb{C}$, be the complex exponential family. For all functions in the family there is a unique asymptotic value at 0 (and no critical values). For a fixed $ \lambda$, the set of points in $ \mathbb{C}$ with orbit tending to infinity is called the escaping set. We prove that the escaping set of $ E_{\lambda}$ with $ \lambda$ Misiurewicz (that is, a parameter for which the orbit of the singular value is strictly preperiodic) is a connected set.

Local re-inversion coronary MR angiography: arterial spin-labeling without the need for subtraction.

PURPOSE: To implement a double-inversion bright-blood coronary MR angiography sequence using a cylindrical re-inversion prepulse for selective visualization of the coronary arteries. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Local re-inversion bright-blood magnetization preparation was implemented using a nonselective inversion followed by a cylindrical aortic re-inversion prepulse. After an inversion delay that allows for in-flow of the labeled blood-pool into the coronary arteries, three-dimensional radial steady-state free-precession (SSFP) imaging (repetition/echo time, 7.2/3.6 ms; flip angle, 120 degrees, 16 profiles per RR interval; field of view, 360 mm; matrix, 512, twelve 3-mm slices) is performed. Coronary MR angiography was performed in three healthy volunteers and in one patient on a commercial 1.5 Tesla whole-body MR System. RESULTS: In all subjects, coronary arteries were selectively visualized with positive contrast. In addition, a middle-grade stenosis of the proximal right coronary artery was seen in one patient. CONCLUSION: A novel T1 contrast-enhancement strategy is presented for selective visualization of the coronary arteries without extrinsic contrast medium application. In comparison to former arterial spin-labeling schemes, the proposed magnetization preparation obviates the need for a second data set and subtraction.

Intermittent atrial tachycardia facilitates atrial fibrillation by a shortening of activation recovery interval

Introduction: We recently observed in a chronic ovine model that a shortening of action potential duration (APD) as assessed by the activation recovery interval (ARI) may be a mechanism whereby pacing-induced atrial tachycardia (PIAT) facilitates atrial fibrillation (AF), mediated by a return to 1:1 atrial capture after the effective refractory period has been reached. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the effect of long term intermittent burst pacing on ARI before induction of AF.Methods: We specifically developed a chronic ovine model of PIAT using two pacemakers (PM) each with a right atrial (RA) lead separated by ∼2cm. The 1st PM (Vitatron T70) was used to record a broadband unipolar RA EGM (800 Hz, 0.4 Hz high pass filter). The 2nd was used to deliver PIAT during electrophysiological protocols at decremental pacing CL (400 beats, from 400 to 110ms) and long term intermittent RA burst pacing to promote electrical remodeling (5s of burst followed by 2s of sinus rhythm) until onset of sustained AF. ARI was defined as the time difference between the peak of the atrial repolarization wave and the first atrial depolarization. The mean ARIs of paired sequences (before and after remodeling), each consisting of 20 beats were compared.Results: As shown in the figure, ARIs (n=4 sheep, 46 recordings) decreased post remodeling compared to baseline (86±19 vs 103±12 ms, p<0.05). There was no difference in atrial structure as assessed by light microscopy between control and remodeled sheep.Conclusions: Using standard pacemaker technology, atrial ARIs as a surrogate of APDs were successfully measured in vivo during the electrical remodeling process leading to AF. The facilitation of AF by PIAT mimicking salvos from pulmonary veins is heralded by a significant shortening of ARI.

Set reformulacions per a una dramatúrgia interactiva

La hibridació de les noves tecnologies amb la posada en escena, en obres i espais de representació, està obrint noves formes d'aproximació al fet dramatúrgic. Així s'ha esdevingut en la història del teatre sobre l'escriptura, l'escenografia o l'acció actoral. El que aquí volem tractar és com les tecnologies interactives poden representar un altre d'aquests moments d'inflexió. Aquest article parteix de l'experiència obtinguda en la direcció, juntament amb Montse Figueras, de la instal·lació Prometzeus presentada a la sala Muncunill de Terrassa el 2004. Una aproximació amateur en l’experimentació de noves dramatúrgies que feia ús de tecnologies audiovisuals interactives. Volem presentar una primera reflexió sobre la qüestió i exposar set d'aquestes possibles reformulacions. Set punts on les tecnologies interactives reformulen el llenguatge teatral.

Wave-height hazard analysis in Eastern Coast of Spain : Bayesian approach using generalized Pareto distribution

Standard practice of wave-height hazard analysis often pays little attention to the uncertainty of assessed return periods and occurrence probabilities. This fact favors the opinion that, when large events happen, the hazard assessment should change accordingly. However, uncertainty of the hazard estimates is normally able to hide the effect of those large events. This is illustrated using data from the Mediterranean coast of Spain, where the last years have been extremely disastrous. Thus, it is possible to compare the hazard assessment based on data previous to those years with the analysis including them. With our approach, no significant change is detected when the statistical uncertainty is taken into account. The hazard analysis is carried out with a standard model. Time-occurrence of events is assumed Poisson distributed. The wave-height of each event is modelled as a random variable which upper tail follows a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Moreover, wave-heights are assumed independent from event to event and also independent of their occurrence in time. A threshold for excesses is assessed empirically. The other three parameters (Poisson rate, shape and scale parameters of GPD) are jointly estimated using Bayes' theorem. Prior distribution accounts for physical features of ocean waves in the Mediterranean sea and experience with these phenomena. Posterior distribution of the parameters allows to obtain posterior distributions of other derived parameters like occurrence probabilities and return periods. Predictives are also available. Computations are carried out using the program BGPE v2.0

Valproic acid monotherapy in pregnancy and major congenital malformations.

BACKGROUND: The use of valproic acid in the first trimester of pregnancy is associated with an increased risk of spina bifida, but data on the risks of other congenital malformations are limited. METHODS: We first combined data from eight published cohort studies (1565 pregnancies in which the women were exposed to valproic acid, among which 118 major malformations were observed) and identified 14 malformations that were significantly more common among the offspring of women who had received valproic acid during the first trimester. We then assessed the associations between use of valproic acid during the first trimester and these 14 malformations by performing a case-control study with the use of the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT) antiepileptic-study database, which is derived from population-based congenital-anomaly registries. Registrations (i.e., pregnancy outcomes with malformations included in EUROCAT) with any of these 14 malformations were compared with two control groups, one consisting of infants with malformations not previously linked to valproic acid use (control group 1), and one consisting of infants with chromosomal abnormalities (control group 2). The data set included 98,075 live births, stillbirths, or terminations with malformations among 3.8 million births in 14 European countries from 1995 through 2005. RESULTS: Exposure to valproic acid monotherapy was recorded for a total of 180 registrations, with 122 registrations in the case group, 45 in control group 1, and 13 in control group 2. As compared with no use of an antiepileptic drug during the first trimester (control group 1), use of valproic acid monotherapy was associated with significantly increased risks for 6 of the 14 malformations under consideration; the adjusted odds ratios were as follows: spina bifida, 12.7 (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.7 to 20.7); atrial septal defect, 2.5 (95% CI, 1.4 to 4.4); cleft palate, 5.2 (95% CI, 2.8 to 9.9); hypospadias, 4.8 (95% CI, 2.9 to 8.1); polydactyly, 2.2 (95% CI, 1.0 to 4.5); and craniosynostosis, 6.8 (95% CI, 1.8 to 18.8). Results for exposure to valproic acid were similar to results for exposure to other antiepileptic drugs. CONCLUSIONS: The use of valproic acid monotherapy in the first trimester was associated with significantly increased risks of several congenital malformations, as compared with no use of antiepileptic drugs or with use of other antiepileptic drugs.

A note on the Lorenz-maximal allocations in the imputation set

In this note we introduce the Lorenz stable set and provide an axiomatic characterization in terms of constrained egalitarianism and projection consistency. On the domain of all coalitional games, we find that this solution connects the weak constrained egalitarian solution (Dutta and Ray, 1989) with their strong counterpart (Dutta and Ray, 1991)

The role of interval nodes in sentinel lymph node mapping and dissection for melanoma patients.

In sentinel node (SN) biopsy, an interval SN is defined as a lymph node or group of lymph nodes located between the primary melanoma and an anatomically well-defined lymph node group directly draining the skin. As shown in previous reports, these interval SNs seem to be at the same metastatic risk as are SNs in the usual, classic areas. This study aimed to review the incidence, lymphatic anatomy, and metastatic risk of interval SNs. METHODS: SN biopsy was performed at a tertiary center by a single surgical team on a cohort of 402 consecutive patients with primary melanoma. The triple technique of localization was used-that is, lymphoscintigraphy, blue dye, and gamma-probe. Otolaryngologic melanoma and mucosal melanoma were excluded from this analysis. SNs were examined by serial sectioning and immunohistochemistry. All patients with metastatic SNs were recommended to undergo a radical selective lymph node dissection. RESULTS: The primary locations of the melanomas included the trunk (188), an upper limb (67), or a lower limb (147). Overall, 97 (24.1%) of the 402 SNs were metastatic. Interval SNs were observed in 18 patients, in all but 2 of whom classic SNs were also found. The location of the primary was truncal in 11 (61%) of the 18, upper limb in 5, and lower limb in 2. One patient with a dorsal melanoma had drainage exclusively in a cervicoscapular area that was shown on removal to contain not lymph node tissue but only a blue lymph channel without tumor cells. Apart from the interval SN, 13 patients had 1 classic SN area and 3 patients 2 classic SN areas. Of the 18 patients, 2 had at least 1 metastatic interval SN and 2 had a classic SN that was metastatic; overall, 4 (22.2%) of 18 patients were node-positive. CONCLUSION: We found that 2 of 18 interval SNs were metastatic: This study showed that preoperative lymphoscintigraphy must review all known lymphatic areas in order to exclude an interval SN.

Generalized synchronization in directionally coupled systems with identical individual dynamics

A simple chaotic flow is presented, which when driven by an identical copy of itself, for certain initial conditions, is able to display generalized synchronization instead of identical synchronization. Being that the drive and the response are observed in exactly the same coordinate system, generalized synchronization is demonstrated by means of the auxiliary system approach and by the conditional Lyapunov spectrum. This is interpreted in terms of changes in the structure of the system stationary points, caused by the coupling, which modify its global behavior.

Impact of phenotype definition on genome-wide association signals: empirical evaluation in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection.

Discussion on improving the power of genome-wide association studies to identify candidate variants and genes is generally centered on issues of maximizing sample size; less attention is given to the role of phenotype definition and ascertainment. The authors used genome-wide data from patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) to assess whether differences in type of population (622 seroconverters vs. 636 seroprevalent subjects) or the number of measurements available for defining the phenotype resulted in differences in the effect sizes of associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms and the phenotype, HIV-1 viral load at set point. The effect estimate for the top 100 single nucleotide polymorphisms was 0.092 (95% confidence interval: 0.074, 0.110) log(10) viral load (log(10) copies of HIV-1 per mL of blood) greater in seroconverters than in seroprevalent subjects. The difference was even larger when the authors focused on chromosome 6 variants (0.153 log(10) viral load) or on variants that achieved genome-wide significance (0.232 log(10) viral load). The estimates of the genetic effects tended to be slightly larger when more viral load measurements were available, particularly among seroconverters and for variants that achieved genome-wide significance. Differences in phenotype definition and ascertainment may affect the estimated magnitude of genetic effects and should be considered in optimizing power for discovering new associations.

Yield QTL analysis of Oryza sativa x O. glumaepatula introgression lines

The objective of this work was to evaluate the yield performance of two generations (BC2F2 and BC2F9) of introgression lines developed from the interspecific cross between Oryza sativa and O. glumaepatula, and to identify the SSR markers associated to yield. The wild accession RS‑16 (O. glumaepatula) was used as donor parent in the backcross with the high yielding cultivar Cica‑8 (O. sativa). A set of 114 BC2F1 introgression lines was genotyped with 141 polymorphic SSR loci distributed across the whole rice genome. Molecular analysis showed that in average 22% of the O. glumaepatula genome was introgressed into BC2F1 generation. Nine BC2F9 introgression lines had a significantly higher yield than the genitor Cica‑8, thus showing a positive genome interaction among cultivated rice and the wild O. glumaepatula. Seven QTL were identified in the overall BC2F2, with one marker interval (4879‑EST20) of great effect on yield. The alleles with positive effect on yield came from the cultivated parent Cica‑8.