EMU, EU, Market Integration and Consumption Smoothing

We take a new approach to the study of the impact of EMU on consumption smoothing. Rather than relying on inferences based on the behavior of consumption levels or growth, we focus on consumption volatility and therefore on smoothing more directly. Consequently, we find that even though EMU tends to smooth consumption, it is not through cross-country property and claims. Rather it comes through the promotion of the tradability of goods, capital in particular: specifically, the encouragement of price competition, contestable home markets, ability to borrow and buy insurance at home, and the harmonization of regulations. Some of the consumption smoothing may also depend on EU membership rather than EMU as such but EMU adds to it. As a fundamental part of the analysis, the paper uses a new index of currency union which focuses on the ratio of trade with other countries sharing the same currency relative to total foreign trade.

Globalization and international relations: the Olympic Movement and European Integration

Essay elaborated by Shaelyne Johnson, undergraduate student of Global Studies at the University of California-Santa Barbara, during her internship at CEO-UAB for the academic course 2008/2009. She compares the organisational structure, goals and objectives of the institutions in the Olympic Movement and the European Integration, in order to find connections between both movements which were caused by globalization. The paper begins with an introduction of the changing world nowadays, followed by an overview on the structural similarities in the historical unfolding between these two parallel movements and, before concluding, new means for international relations are considered. This document is available in English through the digital library at the CEO-UAB Portal of Olympic Studies and the digital repository RECERCAT.

Unionisation, International Integration and Selection

We study how unionisation affects competitive selection between heterogeneous firms when wage negotiations can occur at the firm or at the profit-centre level. With productivity specific wages, an increase in union power has: (i) a selection-softening; (ii) a counter-competitive; (iii) a wage-inequality; and (iv) a variety effect. In a two-country asymmetric setting, stronger unions soften competition for domestic firms and toughen it for exporters. With profit-centre bargaining, we show how trade liberalisation can affect wage inequality among identical workers both across firms (via its effects on competitive selection) and within firms (via wage discrimination across destination markets).

Monetary policy strategies, financial institutions and financial markets in the Middle East and North Africa: an overview

Three polar types of monetary architecture are identified together with the institutional and market infrastructure required for each type and the kinds of monetary policy feasible in each case: a ‘basic’ architecture where there is little or no financial system as such but an elementary central bank which is able to fix the exchange rate, as a substitute for a proper monetary policy; a ‘modern’ monetary architecture with developed banks, financial markets and central bank where policy choices include types of inflation targeting; and an ‘intermediate’ monetary architecture where less market-based monetary policies involving less discretion are feasible. A range of data is used to locate the various MENA countries with respect to these polar types. Five countries (Iran, Libya, Sudan, Syria and Yemen) are identified as those with the least developed monetary architecture, while Bahrain and Jordan are identified as the group at the other end of the spectrum, reaching beyond the intermediate polar type in some dimensions but not others. The countries in between vary on different dimensions but all lie between basic and intermediate architectures. The key general findings are that the MENA countries are both less differentiated and less ‘developed’ than might have been expected. The paper ends by calling for research on the costs and benefits of different types of monetary architecture.

Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model of Stock Prices

We re-examine the dynamics of returns and dividend growth within the present-value framework of stock prices. We find that the finite sample order of integration of returns is approximately equal to the order of integration of the first-differenced price-dividend ratio. As such, the traditional return forecasting regressions based on the price-dividend ratio are invalid. Moreover, the nonstationary long memory behaviour of the price-dividend ratio induces antipersistence in returns. This suggests that expected returns should be modelled as an AFIRMA process and we show this improves the forecast ability of the present-value model in-sample and out-of-sample.

Tolerance-inducing immunosuppressive strategies in clinical transplantation: an overview.

The significant development of immunosuppressive drug therapies within the past 20 years has had a major impact on the outcome of clinical solid organ transplantation, mainly by decreasing the incidence of acute rejection episodes and improving short-term patient and graft survival. However, long-term results remain relatively disappointing because of chronic allograft dysfunction and patient morbidity or mortality, which is often related to the adverse effects of immunosuppressive treatment. Thus, the induction of specific immunological tolerance of the recipient towards the allograft remains an important objective in transplantation. In this article, we first briefly describe the mechanisms of allograft rejection and immune tolerance. We then review in detail current tolerogenic strategies that could promote central or peripheral tolerance, highlighting the promises as well as the remaining challenges in clinical transplantation. The induction of haematopoietic mixed chimerism could be an approach to induce robust central tolerance, and we describe recent encouraging reports of end-stage kidney disease patients, without concomitant malignancy, who have undergone combined bone marrow and kidney transplantation. We discuss current studies suggesting that, while promoting peripheral transplantation tolerance in preclinical models, induction protocols based on lymphocyte depletion (polyclonal antithymocyte globulins, alemtuzumab) or co-stimulatory blockade (belatacept) should, at the current stage, be considered more as drug-minimization rather than tolerance-inducing strategies. Thus, a better understanding of the mechanisms that promote peripheral tolerance has led to newer approaches and the investigation of individualized donor-specific cellular therapies based on manipulated recipient regulatory T cells.

Migration and trade: Theory with an Application to the Eastern- Western European Integration

The remarkable increase in trade flows and in migratory flows of highly educated people are two important features of globalization of the last decades. This paper extends a two-country model of inter- and intraindustry trade to a rich environment featuring technological differences, skill differences and the possibility of international labor mobility. The model is used to explain the patterns of trade and migration as countries remove barriers to trade and to labor mobility. We parameterize the model to match the features of the Western and Eastern European members of the EU and analyze first the effects of the trade liberalization which occured between 1989 and 2004, and then the gains and losses from migration which are expected to occur if legal barriers to labor mobility are substantially reduced. The lower barriers to migration would result in significant migration of skilled workers from Eastern European countries. Interestingly, this would not only benefit the migrants and most Western European workers but, via trade, it would also benefit the workers remaining in Eastern Europe. Key Words: Skilled Migration, Gains from Variety, Real Wages, Eastern-Western Europe. JEL Codes: F12, F22, J61.

Knowing the past to predict the future: land-use change and the distribution of invasive bullfrogs

Biological invasions and land-use changes are two major causes of the global modifications of biodiversity. Habitat suitability models are the tools of choice to predict potential distributions of invasive species. Although land-use is a key driver of alien species invasions, it is often assumed that land-use is constant in time. Here we combine historical and present day information, to evaluate whether land-use changes could explain the dynamic of invasion of the American bullfrog Rana catesbeiana (=Lithobathes catesbeianus) in Northern Italy, from the 1950s to present-day. We used maxent to build habitat suitability models, on the basis of past (1960s, 1980s) and present-day data on land-uses and species distribution. For example, we used models built using the 1960s data to predict distribution in the 1980s, and so on. Furthermore, we used land-use scenarios to project suitability in the future. Habitat suitability models predicted well the spread of bullfrogs in the subsequent temporal step. Models considering land-use changes predicted invasion dynamics better than models assuming constant land-use over the last 50 years. Scenarios of future land-use suggest that suitability will remain similar in the next years. Habitat suitability models can help to understand and predict the dynamics of invasions; however, land-use is not constant in time: land-use modifications can strongly affect invasions; furthermore, both land management and the suitability of a given land-use class may vary in time. An integration of land-use changes in studies of biological invasions can help to improve management strategies.

Promotion de l'activité physique chez les aînés: enjeux et stratégies spécifiques. [Promotion of exercise in older people: issues and strategies].

Regular physical activity is among the most effective interventions to prevent or delay functional decline and disability, even in older persons. Despite relatively strong scientific evidence supporting these benefits, the majority of older persons remain mostly sedentary. For these persons, concerns about injury or fear of negative consequences on their chronic diseases are among the most powerful barriers to participation in regular physical activity. Promotion of physical activity among older persons has therefore become one of the five main themes of the health promotion project "Via", a project that aims at promoting good practice in prevention and health promotion directed toward older adults in Switzerland. This paper summarizes the main recommendations issued from this national project supported by the Swiss Health Promotion Foundation.

Epidemiology and control of malaria and other arthropod born diseases

Malaria and other arthropod born diseases remain a serious public health problem affecting the lives and health of certain social groups when the two basic strategies to control fail due to : (1) the lack of effective chemoprophylaxis/chemotherapy or the rapid development of drug resistance of the infectious agents and (2) the ineffectiveness of pesticides or the arthropod vectors develop resistance to them. These situations enhances the need for the design and implementation of other alternatives for sustainable health programmes. The application of the epidemiological methods is essential not only for analyzing the relevant data for the understanding of the biological characteristics of the infectious agents, their reservoirs and vectors and the methods for their control, but also for the assessment of the human behaviour, the environmental, social and economic factors involved in disease transmission and the capacity of the health systems to implement interventions for both changes in human behaviour and environmental management to purpose guaranteed prevention and control of malaria and other arthropod born diseases with efficiency, efficacy and equity. This paper discuss the evolution of the malaria arthropod diseases programmes in the American Region and the perspectives for their integration into health promotion programs and emphasis is made in the need to establish solid basis in the decision-making process for the selection of intervention strategies to remove the risk factors determining the probability to get sick or die from ABDs. The implications of the general planning and the polices to be adopted in an area should be analyzed in the light of programme feasibility at the local level, in the multisectoral context specific social groups and taking in consideration the principles of stratification and equity

Vaccine strategies against schistosomiasis

In this review the authors analyze the effector and regulatory mechanisms in the immune response to schistosomiasis. To study these mechanisms two animal models were used, mouse and rat. The mouse totaly permissive host like human, show prominent-T cell control in the acquisition of resistance. But other mechanisms like antibody mediated cytotoxity (ADCC) involving eosinophils and IgG antibodies described in humans, are observed in rats. Also in this animal, it is observed specific IgE antibody high production and blood and tisssue eosinophilia. Using the rat model and schistosomula as target, some ADCC features have emerged: the cellular population involved are bone marrow derived inflammatory cell (mononuclear phagocytes, eosinophils and platelets), interacting with IgE through IgE Fc receptors. Immunization has been attempted using the recombinant protein Sm28/GST. Protection has been observed in rodents with significant decrease of parasite fecundity and egg viability affecting the number, size and volume of liver egg granulomas. The association of praziquantel and immunization with with Sm28/GST increases the resistance to infection and decreases egg viability. The authors suggest the possibility of the stablishment of a future vaccine against Schistosoma mansoni.

Looming signals reveal synergistic principles of multisensory integration.

Multisensory interactions are a fundamental feature of brain organization. Principles governing multisensory processing have been established by varying stimulus location, timing and efficacy independently. Determining whether and how such principles operate when stimuli vary dynamically in their perceived distance (as when looming/receding) provides an assay for synergy among the above principles and also means for linking multisensory interactions between rudimentary stimuli with higher-order signals used for communication and motor planning. Human participants indicated movement of looming or receding versus static stimuli that were visual, auditory, or multisensory combinations while 160-channel EEG was recorded. Multivariate EEG analyses and distributed source estimations were performed. Nonlinear interactions between looming signals were observed at early poststimulus latencies (∼75 ms) in analyses of voltage waveforms, global field power, and source estimations. These looming-specific interactions positively correlated with reaction time facilitation, providing direct links between neural and performance metrics of multisensory integration. Statistical analyses of source estimations identified looming-specific interactions within the right claustrum/insula extending inferiorly into the amygdala and also within the bilateral cuneus extending into the inferior and lateral occipital cortices. Multisensory effects common to all conditions, regardless of perceived distance and congruity, followed (∼115 ms) and manifested as faster transition between temporally stable brain networks (vs summed responses to unisensory conditions). We demonstrate the early-latency, synergistic interplay between existing principles of multisensory interactions. Such findings change the manner in which to model multisensory interactions at neural and behavioral/perceptual levels. We also provide neurophysiologic backing for the notion that looming signals receive preferential treatment during perception.