Exchange-rate variations and the rate of inflation in emerging economies

This paper develops a structural general equilibrium model to analyse the reactions of the nominal exchange rate and the domestic price level to three types of external shock in emerging economies that have limited access to world capital markets. Although the results depend crucially on the type of external shock, each of the two national balance-sheet parameters considered here —the risk premium and the ratio of external indebtedness— exacerbates the reactions of the two endogenous variables without altering the degree of exchange-rate pass-through (erpt). Moreover, flatter Phillips curves, as observed today in many economies, tend to increase erpt. On the basis of these results, the authorities of emerging economies seeking to stabilize markets and limit erpt are advised to minimize the two risk parameters by applying a flexible inflation-targeting regime.

Paraguay: a housing finance proposal for middle- to low-income groups

The construction and ownership of homes is fundamental to economic development, the generation of wealth and the formation of the middle class. Although a number of studies have been conducted and programmes implemented in recent decades, there remains a significant housing deficit in Paraguay and Latin America, indicating that such programmes have been unsuccessful. For families unable to document a steady income, the main obstacle to homeownership is often financing. This paper aims to demonstrate the economic and financial feasibility —provided there is sufficient political will and coordination between public and private entities— of a project to build 75,000 homes for 300,000 people (4.5% of the Paraguayan population) with middle to low incomes. The median household income in this segment, for which there is a significant shortage of decent housing, is US$ 396.50. A maximum of US$ 63.44 per month may be set aside for housing costs.

Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targets in Chile

Using quarterly data on the Chilean economy from 1986 to 2009, this article looks at the effect of gradual implementation of an inflation-targeting regime on exchange rate pass-through to prices. Initially, the introduction of inflation-targeting contributes to substantial reductions in the pass-through coefficient. However, in the second phase of implementation, once the monetary authority extends the policy horizon and introduces greater flexibility into the exchange rate system, the pass-through coefficient rises sharply. The findings of this study show that exchange rate pass-through to prices, in addition to being sensitive to the inflationary environment, is closely tied to the rules of the game that shape the monetary policy framework.

Energetic efficiency of an agricultural tractor in function of tire inflation pressure

The tire inflation pressure, among other factors, determines the efficiency in which a tractor can exert traction. It was studied the effect of using two tire inflation pressures, 110.4 kPa in the front and rear wheels, 124.2 kPa in the front wheel and 138 kPa in the rear wheels, the energetic efficiency of an agricultural tractor of 147 kW of engine power, in the displacement speed of 6.0 km.h-1, on track with firm surface, with the tractor engine speed of 2000 rpm. For each condition of the tire pressure, the tested tractor was subjected to constant forces in the drawbar of 45 kN and 50 kN, covering 30 meters. It was used a randomized complete block with a 2x2 factorial arrangement (tire pressure and drawbar power) with four replications, totaling 16 experimental units. Data were subjected to analysis of variance, using the Tukey test at 5% probability for comparison averages. The lowest hourly and specific fuel consumption, the lowest slippage of the wheelsets and the highest efficiency in the drawbar was obtained with the tire inflation pressure of 110.4 kPa in the front and rear tires of the tractor, highlighting that lower pressures improve energetic and operational performance of the tractor.

Conformal inflation from the Higgs

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Implementing inflation targeting in Brazil: an institutional analysis

The paper shows the advantages and handicaps of implementing an inflation target (IT) regime, from a Post-Keynesian and, thus, an institutional stance. It is Post-Keynesian as long as it does not perceive any benefit in the mainstream split between monetary and fiscal policies. And it is institutional insofar as it assumes that there are several ways of implementing a policy, such that the chosen one is determined by historical factors, as it is illustrated by the Brazilian case. One could even support IT policies if their targets were seen just as “focusing devices” guiding economic policy, notwithstanding other targets, as, in the short run, output growth and employment and, in the long run, technology and human development. Nevertheless, an IT is not necessary, although it can be admitted, mainly if the target is hidden from the public, in order to increase the flexibility of the Central Bank.

Inflation in supergravity and the volume modulus

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Tractor perfomance as a function of speed and seeder s tire inflation pressure

O desempenho de tratores agrícolas em condições de campo resulta da interação entre pneu e rodado, influenciado pela velocidade de deslocamento. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o desempenho de um trator agrícola sob diferentes pressões de inflação dos pneus da semeadora (518, 483, and 414kPa) e em duas marchas que proporcionaram velocidades de 3,0 e 6,0km h-1. O experimento foi realizado no campus de Jaboticabal da Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). O delineamento experimental utilizado foi fatorial inteiramente casualizado (3x2), com quatro repetições. A força de tração foi influenciada pela marcha e pela potência exigida; no entanto, a pressão de inflação do pneu da semeadora não alterou esses parâmetros. Além disso, o consumo de combustível foi influenciado apenas pela marcha do trator. O consumo de energia foi maior com o aumento da velocidade, ocasionada pela mudança de marcha. A velocidade de deslocamento foi maior para a pressão de 518kPa, em razão da menor patinagem da semeadora promovida por essa pressão. A patinagem do trator não foi alterada pelos fatores testados.

RB34-71 Effects of Inflation and Deflation Upon Nebraska Agriculture, 1914 to 1932

Nebraska farmers prospered during the period which followed the depression of the nineties and preceded the beginning of the World War. To be sure the prosperity was not uniformly distributed either by years or by areas. The corn crop was unusually short in a large portion of the state in 1901 and an almost total failure in many of the southern counties in 1913. Chinch bugs did considerable injury in 1901 and the Hessian fly in 1905 and 1914. There was noticeable damage from insects in some areas in other years. No part of the state, however, suffered from long-continued drouth or repeated ravages of insect pests. The depression of 1907 affected credit and prices very severly for a few months, but recovery was rapid and within less than a year business was again moving forward. This 1934 research bulletin covers the problems of inflation and deflation; changes in the prices of various commodities during inflation and deflation; prices and purchasing power of Nebraska farm products, 1914 to 1932; adjustments during inflation and deflation; the effect of wages on Nebraska agriculture; taxes; Nebraska farm income; changes in types of farming in Nebraska, 1914 to 1932; the banking situation; Nebraska farm land prices; and the effects of inflation and deflation upon Nebraska businesses.

Generalized non-commutative inflation

Non-commutative geometry indicates a deformation of the energy-momentum dispersion relation f (E) = E/pc (not equal 1) for massless particles. This distorted energy-momentum relation can affect the radiation-dominated phase of the universe at sufficiently high temperature. This prompted the idea of non-commutative inflation by Alexander et al (2003 Phys. Rev. D 67 081301) and Koh and Brandenberger (2007 JCAP06(2007) 021 and JCAP11(2007) 013). These authors studied a one-parameter family of a non-relativistic dispersion relation that leads to inflation: the a family of curves f (E) = 1 + (lambda E)(alpha). We show here how the conceptually different structure of symmetries of non-commutative spaces can lead, in a mathematically consistent way, to the fundamental equations of non-commutative inflation driven by radiation. We describe how this structure can be considered independently of (but including) the idea of non-commutative spaces as a starting point of the general inflationary deformation of SL(2, C). We analyze the conditions on the dispersion relation that leads to inflation as a set of inequalities which plays the same role as the slow-roll conditions on the potential of a scalar field. We study conditions for a possible numerical approach to obtain a general one-parameter family of dispersion relations that lead to successful inflation.

Conceptual problem for noncommutative inflation and the new approach for nonrelativistic inflationary equation of state

In a previous paper, we connected the phenomenological noncommutative inflation of Alexander, Brandenberger and Magueijo [ Phys. Rev. D 67 081301 (2003)] and Koh and Brandenberger [ J. Cosmol. Astropart Phys. 2007 21 ()] with the formal representation theory of groups and algebras and analyzed minimal conditions that the deformed dispersion relation should satisfy in order to lead to a successful inflation. In that paper, we showed that elementary tools of algebra allow a group-like procedure in which even Hopf algebras (roughly the symmetries of noncommutative spaces) could lead to the equation of state of inflationary radiation. Nevertheless, in this paper, we show that there exists a conceptual problem with the kind of representation that leads to the fundamental equations of the model. The problem comes from an incompatibility between one of the minimal conditions for successful inflation (the momentum of individual photons being bounded from above) and the Fock-space structure of the representation which leads to the fundamental inflationary equations of state. We show that the Fock structure, although mathematically allowed, would lead to problems with the overall consistency of physics, like leading to a problematic scattering theory, for example. We suggest replacing the Fock space by one of two possible structures that we propose. One of them relates to the general theory of Hopf algebras (here explained at an elementary level) while the other is based on a representation theorem of von Neumann algebras (a generalization of the Clebsch-Gordan coefficients), a proposal already suggested by us to take into account interactions in the inflationary equation of state.

From inflation to dark energy through a dynamical Λ: an attempt at alleviating fundamental cosmic puzzles

After decades of successful hot big-bang paradigm, cosmology still lacks a framework in which the early inflationary phase of the universe smoothly matches the radiation epoch and evolves to the present “quasi” de Sitter spacetime. No less intriguing is that the current value of the effective vacuum energy density is vastly smaller than the value that triggered inflation. In this paper, we propose a new class of cosmologies capable of overcoming, or highly alleviating, some of these acute cosmic puzzles. Powered by a decaying vacuum energy density, the spacetime emerges from a pure nonsingular de Sitter vacuum stage, “gracefully” exits from inflation to a radiation phase followed by dark matter and vacuum regimes, and, finally, evolves to a late-time de Sitter phase.

Bayesian Analysis of Linear Inverse Problems with Applications in Economics and Finance

In my PhD thesis I propose a Bayesian nonparametric estimation method for structural econometric models where the functional parameter of interest describes the economic agent's behavior. The structural parameter is characterized as the solution of a functional equation, or by using more technical words, as the solution of an inverse problem that can be either ill-posed or well-posed. From a Bayesian point of view, the parameter of interest is a random function and the solution to the inference problem is the posterior distribution of this parameter. A regular version of the posterior distribution in functional spaces is characterized. However, the infinite dimension of the considered spaces causes a problem of non continuity of the solution and then a problem of inconsistency, from a frequentist point of view, of the posterior distribution (i.e. problem of ill-posedness). The contribution of this essay is to propose new methods to deal with this problem of ill-posedness. The first one consists in adopting a Tikhonov regularization scheme in the construction of the posterior distribution so that I end up with a new object that I call regularized posterior distribution and that I guess it is solution of the inverse problem. The second approach consists in specifying a prior distribution on the parameter of interest of the g-prior type. Then, I detect a class of models for which the prior distribution is able to correct for the ill-posedness also in infinite dimensional problems. I study asymptotic properties of these proposed solutions and I prove that, under some regularity condition satisfied by the true value of the parameter of interest, they are consistent in a "frequentist" sense. Once I have set the general theory, I apply my bayesian nonparametric methodology to different estimation problems. First, I apply this estimator to deconvolution and to hazard rate, density and regression estimation. Then, I consider the estimation of an Instrumental Regression that is useful in micro-econometrics when we have to deal with problems of endogeneity. Finally, I develop an application in finance: I get the bayesian estimator for the equilibrium asset pricing functional by using the Euler equation defined in the Lucas'(1978) tree-type models.