Impact of a Fram Strait cyclone on ice edge, drift, divergence, and concentration: Possibilities and limits of an observational analysis

This study aims at the determination of a Fram Strait cyclone track and of the cyclone’s impact on ice edge, drift, divergence, and concentration. A 24 h period on 13–14 March 2002 framed by two RADARSAT images is analyzed. Data are included from autonomous ice buoys, a research vessel, Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and QuikSCAT satellite, and the operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. During this 24 h period the cyclone moved northward along the western ice edge in the Fram Strait, crossed the northern ice edge, made a left-turn loop with 150 km diameter over the sea ice, and returned to the northern ice edge. The ECMWF analysis places the cyclone track 100 km too far west over the sea ice, a deviation which is too large for representative sea ice simulations. On the east side of the northward moving cyclone, the ice edge was pushed northward by 55 km because of strong winds. On the rear side, the ice edge advanced toward the open water but by a smaller distance because of weaker winds there. The ice drift pattern as calculated from the ice buoys and the two RADARSAT images is cyclonically curved around the center of the cyclone loop. Ice drift divergence shows a spatial pattern with divergence in the loop center and a zone of convergence around. Ice concentration changes as retrieved from SSM/I data follow the divergence pattern such that sea ice concentration increased in areas of divergence and decreased in areas of convergence.

Impact of instantaneous sea ice removal in a coupled general circulation model

The impact of extreme sea ice initial conditions on modelled climate is analysed for a fully coupled atmosphere ocean sea ice general circulation model, the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3. A control run is chosen as reference experiment with greenhouse gas concentration fixed at preindustrial conditions. Sensitivity experiments show an almost complete recovery from total removal or strong increase of sea ice after four years. Thus, uncertainties in initial sea ice conditions seem to be unimportant for climate modelling on decadal or longer time scales. When the initial conditions of the ocean mixed layer were adjusted to ice-free conditions, a few substantial differences remained for more than 15 model years. But these differences are clearly smaller than the uncertainty of the HadCM3 run and all the other 19 IPCC fourth assessment report climate model preindustrial runs. It is an important task to improve climate models in simulating the past sea ice variability to enable them to make reliable projections for the 21st century.

Impact of cyclones on sea ice in the Fram Strait: numerical simulations and observations

The sea ice export from the Arctic is of global importance due to its fresh water which influences the oceanic stratification and, thus, the global thermohaline circulation. This study deals with the effect of cyclones on sea ice and sea ice transport in particular on the basis of observations from two field experiments FRAMZY 1999 and FRAMZY 2002 in April 1999 and March 2002 as well as on the basis of simulations with a numerical sea ice model. The simulations realised by a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model are forced with 6-hourly atmospheric ECMWF- analyses (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and 6-hourly oceanic data of a MPI-OM-simulation (Max-Planck-Institute Ocean Model). Comparing the observed and simulated variability of the sea ice drift and of the position of the ice edge shows that the chosen configuration of the model is appropriate for the performed studies. The seven observed cyclones change the position of the ice edge up to 100 km and cause an extensive decrease of sea ice coverage by 2 % up to more than 10 %. The decrease is only simulated by the model if the ocean current is strongly divergent in the centre of the cyclone. The impact is remarkable of the ocean current on divergence and shear deformation of the ice drift. As shown by sensitivity studies the ocean current at a depth of 6 m – the sea ice model is forced with – is mainly responsible for the ascertained differences between simulation and observation. The simulated sea ice transport shows a strong variability on a time scale from hours to days. Local minima occur in the time series of the ice transport during periods with Fram Strait cyclones. These minima are not caused by the local effect of the cyclone’s wind field, but mainly by the large-scale pattern of surface pressure. A displacement of the areas of strongest cyclone activity in the Nordic Seas would considerably influence the ice transport.

On the parameterization of turbulent surface fluxes over heterogeneous sea ice surfaces

Turbulent surface fluxes of momentum and sensible and latent heat as well as surface temperature, air temperature, air humidity, and wind speed were measured by the German Falcon research aircraft over the marginal ice zone (MIZ) of the northern Baltic Sea and the Fram Strait. Applying the bulk formulas and the stability functions to the measurements, the roughness lengths for momentum z0, sensible heat zT, and latent heat zq were calculated. As mean values over a wide range of sea ice conditions, we obtain z0 = 5 � 10�4 m, zT = 1 � 10�8 m, and zq = 1 � 10�7 m. These correspond to the following mean values (± standard deviations) of neutral transfer coefficients reduced to 10 m height, CDN10 = (1.9 ± 0.8) � 10�3, CHN10 = (0.9 ± 0.3) � 10�3, and CEN10 = (1.0 ± 0.2) � 10�3. An average ratio of z0/zT � 104 was observed over the range of 10�6 m < z0 < 10�2 m and differs from previously published results over compact sea ice (10�1 < z0/zT < 103). Other observational results over heterogeneous sea ice do not exist. However, our z0/zT ratio approximately agrees with observations over heterogeneous land surfaces. Flux parameterizations based on commonly used roughness lengths ratios (z0 = zT = zq) overestimate the surface heat fluxes compared to our measurements by more than 100%.

Temporal and spatial variability of surface fluxes over the ice edge zone in the northern Baltic Sea

Three land-fast ice stations (one of them was the Finnish research ice breaker Aranda) and the German research aircraft Falcon were applied to measure the turbulent and radiation fluxes over the ice edge zone in the northern Baltic Sea during the Baltic Air-Sea-Ice Study (BASIS) field experiment from 16 February to 6 March 1998. The temporal and spatial variability of the surface fluxes is discussed. Synoptic weather systems passed the experimental area in a rapid sequence and dominated the conditions (wind speed, airsurface temperature difference, cloud field) for the variability of the turbulent and radiation fluxes. At the ice stations, the largest upward sensible heat fluxes of about 100 Wm�2 were measured during the passage of a cold front when the air cooled faster (�5 K per hour) than the surface. The largest downward flux of about �200 Wm�2 occurred during warm air advection when the air temperature reached +10�C but the surface temperature remained at 0�C. Spatial variability of fluxes was observed from the small scale (scale of ice floes and open water spots) to the mesoscale (width of the ice edge zone). The degree of spatial variability depends on the synoptic situation: during melting conditions downward heat fluxes were the same over ice and open water, whereas during strong cold-air advection upward heat fluxes differed by more than 100 Wm�2. A remarkable amount of grey ice with intermediate surface temperature was observed. The ice in the Baltic Sea cannot be described by one ice type only.

The BALTIMOS (BALTEX Integrated Model System) fi eld experiments: A comprehensive atmospheric boundary layer data set for model validation over the open and ice- covered Baltic Sea

A comprehensive atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) data set was collected in eight fi eld experiments (two during each season) over open water and sea ice in the Baltic Sea during 1998–2001 with the primary objective to validate the coupled atmospheric- ice-ocean-land surface model BALTIMOS (BALTEX Integrated Model System). Measurements were taken by aircraft, ships and surface stations and cover the mean and turbulent structure of the ABL including turbulent fl uxes, radiation fl uxes, and cloud conditions. Measurement examples of the spatial variability of the ABL over the ice edge zone and of the stable ABL over open water demonstrate the wide range of ABL conditions collected and the strength of the data set which can also be used to validate other regional models.

Processes controlling surface, bottom and lateral melt of Arctic sea ice in a state of the art sea ice model

We present a modelling study of processes controlling the summer melt of the Arctic sea ice cover. We perform a sensitivity study and focus our interest on the thermodynamics at the ice–atmosphere and ice–ocean interfaces. We use the Los Alamos community sea ice model CICE, and additionally implement and test three new parametrization schemes: (i) a prognostic mixed layer; (ii) a three equation boundary condition for the salt and heat flux at the ice–ocean interface; and (iii) a new lateral melt parametrization. Recent additions to the CICE model are also tested, including explicit melt ponds, a form drag parametrization and a halodynamic brine drainage scheme. The various sea ice parametrizations tested in this sensitivity study introduce a wide spread in the simulated sea ice characteristics. For each simulation, the total melt is decomposed into its surface, bottom and lateral melt components to assess the processes driving melt and how this varies regionally and temporally. Because this study quantifies the relative importance of several processes in driving the summer melt of sea ice, this work can serve as a guide for future research priorities.

Improvement and sensitivity analysis of thermal thin-ice thickness retrievals

Considering the sea ice decline in the Arctic during the last decades, polynyas are of high research interest since these features are core areas of new ice formation. The determination of ice formation requires accurate retrieval of polynya area and thin-ice thickness (TIT) distribution within the polynya.We use an established energy balance model to derive TITs with MODIS ice surface temperatures (Ts) and NCEP/DOE Reanalysis II in the Laptev Sea for two winter seasons. Improvements of the algorithm mainly concern the implementation of an iterative approach to calculate the atmospheric flux components taking the atmospheric stratification into account. Furthermore, a sensitivity study is performed to analyze the errors of the ice thickness. The results are the following: 1) 2-m air temperatures (Ta) and Ts have the highest impact on the retrieved ice thickness; 2) an overestimation of Ta yields smaller ice thickness errors as an underestimation of Ta; 3) NCEP Ta shows often a warm bias; and 4) the mean absolute error for ice thicknesses up to 20 cm is ±4.7 cm. Based on these results, we conclude that, despite the shortcomings of the NCEP data (coarse spatial resolution and no polynyas), this data set is appropriate in combination with MODIS Ts for the retrieval of TITs up to 20 cm in the Laptev Sea region. The TIT algorithm can be applied to other polynya regions and to past and future time periods. Our TIT product is a valuable data set for verification of other model and remote sensing ice thickness data.

Predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge

Skillful sea ice forecasts from days to years ahead are becoming increasingly important for the operation and planning of human activities in the Arctic. Here we analyze the potential predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge in six climate models. We introduce the integrated ice-edge error (IIEE), a user-relevant verification metric defined as the area where the forecast and the “truth” disagree on the ice concentration being above or below 15%. The IIEE lends itself to decomposition into an absolute extent error, corresponding to the common sea ice extent error, and a misplacement error. We find that the often-neglected misplacement error makes up more than half of the climatological IIEE. In idealized forecast ensembles initialized on 1 July, the IIEE grows faster than the absolute extent error. This means that the Arctic sea ice edge is less predictable than sea ice extent, particularly in September, with implications for the potential skill of end-user relevant forecasts.

Brazilian sugar cane bagasse ashes from the cogeneration industry as active pozzolans for cement manufacture

For proper management of wastes and their possible recycling as raw materials, complete characterization of the materials is necessary to evaluate the main scientific aspects and potential applications. The current paper presents a detailed scientific study of different Brazilian sugar cane bagasse ashes from the cogeneration industry as alternative cementing materials (active addition) for cement manufacture. The results show that the ashes from the industrial process (filter and bottom ones) present different chemical and mineralogical compositions and pozzolanic properties as well. As a consequence of its nature, the kinetic rate constant (K) states that the pozzolanic activity is null for the bottom ash and very low for the filter ash with respect to a sugar cane bagasse ash obtained in the laboratory under controlled burning conditions (reference). The scarce pozzolanic activity showed by ashes could be related to a possible contamination of bagasse wastes (with soils) before their use as alternative combustibles. For this reason, an optimization process for these wastes is advisable, if the ashes are to be used as pozzolans. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relative roles of biogenic emissions and Saharan dust as ice nuclei in the Amazon basin

Some aerosol particles, known as ice nuclei, can initiate ice formation in clouds, thereby influencing precipitation, cloud dynamics and the amount of incoming and outgoing solar radiation. In the absence of biomass burning, aerosol mass concentrations in the Amazon basin are low(1). Tropical forests emit primary biological particles directly into the atmosphere; secondary organic aerosols form from the emission and oxidation of biogenic gases(2). In addition, particles derived from biomass burning in central Africa, marine aerosols, and windblown dust from North Africa(3-5) often reach the central part of the Amazon basin during the wet season. The contribution of these aerosol sources to ice nucleation in the region is uncertain. Here we present observations of the concentration and elemental composition of ice nuclei in the Amazon basin during the wet season. Using transmission electron microscopy combined with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, we show that ice nuclei are primarily composed of carbonaceous material and dust. We show that biological particles dominate the carbonaceous fraction, whereas import of Saharan dust explains the intermittent appearance of dust-containing nuclei. We conclude that ice-nucleus concentration and abundance can be explained almost entirely by local emissions of biological particles supplemented by import of Saharan dust. Using a simple model, we tentatively suggest that the contribution of local biological particles to ice nucleation is increased at higher atmospheric temperatures, whereas the contribution of dust particles is increased at lower temperatures.

MODELING ICE COVER ON TRAILS AT GRAND CANYON NATIONAL PARK

http://digitalcommons.colby.edu/atlasofmaine2008/1022/thumbnail.jpg

Modeling Ice Cover on Trails at Grand Canyon National Park

This project used data from the National Park Service, the SRTM data set, and recorded weather conditions to predict snow deposition and snow and ice melt in the Grand Canyon National Park. This model, a simplified version of previous research, shows the location of persistent ice and snow on the Canyon slopes in March.

Estudo histórico para avaliar o uso da associação da ifosfamida, carboplatina e etoposide (ICE) para tratamento de neoplasias refratárias em pacientes pediátricos e adolescentes

O prognóstico das crianças com tumores sólidos malignos recidivados ou refratários permanece desfavorável apesar dos avanços significativos alcançados nos últimos anos em Oncologia Pediátrica. Estudos visando identificar opções terapêuticas mais eficazes torna-se, portanto, de fundamental importância para estes pacientes. Existem evidências na literatura que demonstram que as drogas utilizadas neste estudo tem, quando usadas isoladamente ou em combinação, atividade em neoplasias malignas recidivadas ou refratárias. A Carboplatina (C) apresenta respostas objetivas em um grande número de pacientes pediátricos com câncer, assim como a Ifosfamida (I) e o Etoposide (E). A combinação destas 3 drogas, em um regime que passaremos a designar como ICE, tem potencial de aumentar os índices de resposta, embora aumente também os riscos de toxicidade. O objetivo principal deste estudo foi avaliar a resposta e a toxicidade deste regime em pacientes com tumores sólidos malignos recidivados ou refratários diagnosticados antes dos 18 anos de idade. O ICE consistiu de Ifosfamida na dose 3g/m2/dia IV por 3 dias consecutivos associada a mesna como uroprotetor, em doses equivalentes, Etoposide 160 mg/m2/dia IV por 3 dias consecutivos e Carboplatina 400 mg/m2/dia IV durante 2 dias. Os ciclos foram repetidos com intervalos de 21 a 28 dias. Foram revisados 21 prontuários de pacientes tratados com este regime, entre julho de 1996 a novembro de 2000. Todos os pacientes foram avaliados para toxicidade e 19 pacientes foram avaliados para resposta. Um total de 93 ciclos de ICE foram administrados. A média dos ciclos de ICE recebidos foi de 4,4 (1-8). Os pacientes receberam um máximo de 8 ciclos. Todos os pacientes incluídos no estudo, receberam no mínimo 1 esquema quimioterápico prévio. A taxa de resposta completa + parcial foi de 52,6%. Os efeitos tóxicos incluíram mielossupressão, febre, naúseas ou vômitos, nefrotoxicidade, leve disfunção hepática e neurotoxicidade. Em 78% dos ciclos houve neutropenia grau 4 (contagem de neutrófilos menor de 500/microlitro). Trombocitopenia graus 3 e 4 foi observado em 73,1% dos ciclos administrados e em 82% destes foram necessárias transfusões de plaquetas. Anemia grau 3 a 4 ocorreu em 61,2% dos ciclos e em 75 (80,6%) dos 93 ciclos administrados foi necessário transfusão de glóbulos vermelhos. Nenhum dos pacientes apresentou hematúria macroscópica e em 19,3 % dos ciclos houve hematúria microscópica. Duas crianças apresentaram nefrotoxicidade tubular renal. Em conclusão, este estudo mostra que o ICE é uma combinação ativa em crianças com tumores sólidos refratários/recidivados. Embora esteja associado a mielossupressão severa, a incidência de infecção encontra-se dentro de índices considerados aceitáveis para este grupo de pacientes. O dano tubular renal é a toxicidade não hematológica mais significativa e, portanto, recomenda-se cuidados e monitorização da função renal durante o período de tratamento. Embora o uso do ICE seja factível mesmo sem o uso de fatores de crescimento hematopoiéticos em pacientes previamente submetidos a quimioterapia, a maioria deles necessita terapia de suporte, principalmente de transfusões de hemoderivados e antimicrobianos. A identificação de pacientes e patologias com maior índice de respostas requer a realização de estudos no futuro com maior número de pacientes a nível multi-institucional.