Investment decision-making under risk (reliability) and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

Risks and uncertainties are inevitable in engineering projects and infrastructure investments. Decisions about investment in infrastructure such as for maintenance, rehabilitation and construction works can pose risks, and may generate significant impacts on social, cultural, environmental and other related issues. This report presents the results of a literature review of current practice in identifying, quantifying and managing risks and predicting impacts as part of the planning and assessment process for infrastructure investment proposals. In assessing proposals for investment in infrastructure, it is necessary to consider social, cultural and environmental risks and impacts to the overall community, as well as financial risks to the investor. The report defines and explains the concept of risk and uncertainty, and describes the three main methodology approaches to the analysis of risk and uncertainty in investment planning for infrastructure, viz examining a range of scenarios or options, sensitivity analysis, and a statistical probability approach, listed here in order of increasing merit and complexity. Forecasts of costs, benefits and community impacts of infrastructure are recognised as central aspects of developing and assessing investment proposals. Increasingly complex modelling techniques are being used for investment evaluation. The literature review identified forecasting errors as the major cause of risk. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. For risks that cannot be readily quantified, assessment techniques commonly include classification or rating systems for likelihood and consequence. The report outlines the system used by the Australian Defence Organisation and in the Australian Standard on risk management. After each risk is identified and quantified or rated, consideration can be given to reducing the risk, and managing any remaining risk as part of the scope of the project. The literature review identified use of risk mapping techniques by a North American chemical company and by the Australian Defence Organisation. This literature review has enabled a risk assessment strategy to be developed, and will underpin an examination of the feasibility of developing a risk assessment capability using a probability approach.

Trust and strong ties in the selection and evaluation of business advisors by small firms

Principal Topic A small firm is unlikely to possess internally the full range of knowledge and skills that it requires or could benefit from for the development of its business. The ability to acquire suitable external expertise - defined as knowledge or competence that is rare in the firm and acquired from the outside - when needed thus becomes a competitive factor in itself. Access to external expertise enables the firm to focus on its core competencies and removes the necessity to internalize every skill and competence. However, research on how small firms access external expertise is still scarce. The present study contributes to this under-developed discussion by analysing the role of trust and strong ties in the small firm's selection and evaluation of sources of external expertise (henceforth referred to as the 'business advisor' or 'advisor'). Granovetter (1973, 1361) defines the strength of a network tie as 'a (probably linear) combination of the amount of time, the emotional intensity, the intimacy (mutual confiding) and the reciprocal services which characterize the tie'. Strong ties in the context of the present investigation refer to sources of external expertise who are well known to the owner-manager, and who may be either informal (e.g., family, friends) or professional advisors (e.g., consultants, enterprise support officers, accountants or solicitors). Previous research has suggested that strong and weak ties have different fortes and the choice of business advisors could thus be critical to business performance) While previous research results suggest that small businesses favour previously well known business advisors, prior studies have also pointed out that an excessive reliance on a network of well known actors might hamper business development, as the range of expertise available through strong ties is limited. But are owner-managers of small businesses aware of this limitation and does it matter to them? Or does working with a well-known advisor compensate for it? Hence, our research model first examines the impact of the strength of tie on the business advisor's perceived performance. Next, we ask what encourages a small business owner-manager to seek advice from a strong tie. A recent exploratory study by Welter and Kautonen (2005) drew attention to the central role of trust in this context. However, while their study found support for the general proposition that trust plays an important role in the choice of advisors, how trust and its different dimensions actually affect this choice remained ambiguous. The present paper develops this discussion by considering the impact of the different dimensions of perceived trustworthiness, defined as benevolence, integrity and ability, on the strength of tie. Further, we suggest that the dimensions of perceived trustworthiness relevant in the choice of a strong tie vary between professional and informal advisors. Methodology/Key Propositions Our propositions are examined empirically based on survey data comprising 153 Finnish small businesses. The data are analysed utilizing the partial least squares (PLS) approach to structural equation modelling with SmartPLS 2.0. Being non-parametric, the PLS algorithm is particularly well-suited to analysing small datasets with non-normally distributed variables. Results and Implications The path model shows that the stronger the tie, the more positively the advisor's performance is perceived. Hypothesis 1, that strong ties will be associated with higher perceptions of performance is clearly supported. Benevolence is clearly the most significant predictor of the choice of a strong tie for external expertise. While ability also reaches a moderate level of statistical significance, integrity does not have a statistically significant impact on the choice of a strong tie. Hence, we found support for two out of three independent variables included in Hypothesis 2. Path coefficients differed between the professional and informal advisor subsamples. The results of the exploratory group comparison show that Hypothesis 3a regarding ability being associated with strong ties more pronouncedly when choosing a professional advisor was not supported. Hypothesis 3b arguing that benevolence is more strongly associated with strong ties in the context of choosing an informal advisor received some support because the path coefficient in the informal advisor subsample was much larger than in the professional advisor subsample. Hypothesis 3c postulating that integrity would be more strongly associated with strong ties in the choice of a professional advisor was supported. Integrity is the most important dimension of trustworthiness in this context. However, integrity is of no concern, or even negative, when using strong ties to choose an informal advisor. The findings of this study have practical relevance to the enterprise support community. First of all, given that the strength of tie has a significant positive impact on the advisor's perceived performance, this implies that small business owners appreciate working with advisors in long-term relationships. Therefore, advisors are well advised to invest into relationship building and maintenance in their work with small firms. Secondly, the results show that, especially in the context of professional advisors, the advisor's perceived integrity and benevolence weigh more than ability. This again emphasizes the need to invest time and effort into building a personal relationship with the owner-manager, rather than merely maintaining a professional image and credentials. Finally, this study demonstrates that the dimensions of perceived trustworthiness are orthogonal with different effects on the strength of tie and ultimately perceived performance. This means that entrepreneurs and advisors should consider the specific dimensions of ability, benevolence and integrity, rather than rely on general perceptions of trustworthiness in their advice relationships.

The open kimono: How Intel balances trust and power to maintain platform leadership

A small group of companies including Intel, Microsoft, and Cisco have used "platform leadership" with great effect as a means for driving innovation and accelerating market growth within their respective industries. Prior research in this area emphasizes that trust plays a critical role in the success of this strategy. However, many of the categorizations of trust discussed in the literature tend to ignore or undervalue the fact that trust and power are often functionally equivalent, and that the coercion of weaker partners is sometimes misdiagnosed as collaboration. In this paper, I use case study data focusing on Intel's shift from ceramic/wire-bonded packaging to organic/C4 packaging to characterize the relationships between Intel and its suppliers, and to determine if these links are based on power in addition to trust. The case study shows that Intel's platform leadership strategy is built on a balance of both trust and a relatively benevolent form of power that is exemplified by the company's "open kimono" principle, through which Intel insists that suppliers share detailed financial data and highly proprietary technical information to achieve mutually advantageous objectives. By explaining more completely the nature of these inter-firm linkages, this paper usefully extends our understanding of how platform leadership is maintained by Intel, and contributes to the literature by showing how trust and power can be used simultaneously within an inter-firm relationship in a way that benefits all of the stakeholders.

Leveraging training outcomes on public construction projects

The paper explores the efficacy of public agencies using their contracting relationships with private firms to affect training outcomes in the construction industry. It develops a theoretical perspective on this issue by extending a framework that was originally developed by Hart, Schleifer and Vishny (1997) to study privatisation. This paper shows how their framework can also be applied to situations where the provision of public works is already privatised and the government is attempting to regulate training outcomes via a contracting arrangement. An empirical study of two training policies of the Western Australian government complements this theoretical discussion. We report the results of an analysis of data drawn from the government’s Tender Registration System between 1997 & 2006. As such we use a unique and comprehensive resource to examine the possible effects of new training policies on an important segment of the construction ‘market’.

Catching up with consumer realities: the need for legislation prohibiting unfair terms in consumer contracts

In the policy debate about the need for legislation to prohibit the use of unfair terms in consumer contracts, substantive unfairness is often distinguished from procedural unfairness. Current consumer protection laws appear to offer the potential for relief on substantive unfairness grounds alone. However, a review of cases involving credit contracts shows this potential is rarely realised. This reluctance to provide relief for substantive injustice reflects a preoccupation with freedom and certainty of contract, the notions underpinning classical contract theories. As a class, consumers are vulnerable in the marketplace, and they do need protection from substantively unfair terms. A new framework for regulating consumer contracts is needed, one that relies less on classical contract theories and takes the reality of consumer contracting and consumer behavior as its starting point. Unfair contract terms legislation will be a step on the path towards this new framework.

The effect of insertion time on the axial pullout strength of anterior vertebral body screws

Top screw pullout occurs when the screw is under too much axial force to remain secure in the vertebral body. In vitro biomechanical pullout tests are commonly done to find the maximum fixation strength of anterior vertebral body screws. Typically, pullout tests are done instantaneously where the screw is inserted and then pulled out immediately after insertion. However, bone is a viscoelastic material so it shows a time dependent stress and strain response. Because of this property, it was hypothesised that creep occurs in the vertebral trabecular bone due to the stress caused by the screw. The objective of this study was therefore to determine whether the axial pullout strength of anterior vertebral body screws used for scoliosis correction surgery changes with time after insertion. This study found that there is a possible relationship between pullout strength and time; however more testing is required as the sample numbers were quite small. The design of the screw is made with the knowledge of the strength it must obtain. This is important to prevent such occurrences as top screw pullout. If the pullout strength is indeed decreased due to creep, the design of the screw may need to be changed to withstand greater forces.

Synthesis and Raman spectroscopic study of Mg/Al,Fe hydrotalcites with variable cationic ratios

Hydrotalcites of formula Mg6 (Fe,Al)2(OH)16(CO3).4H2O formed by intercalation with the carbonate anion as a function of divalent/trivalent cationic ratio have been successfully synthesised. The XRD patterns show variation in the d-spacing attributed to the size of the cation. Raman and infrared bands in the OH stretching region are assigned to (a) brucite layer OH stretching vibrations (b) water stretching bands and (c) water strongly hydrogen bonded to the carbonate anion. Multiple (CO3)2- symmetric stretching bands suggest that different types of (CO3)2- exist in the hydrotalcite interlayer. Increasing the cation ratio (Mg/Al,Fe) resulted in an increase in the combined intensity of the 2 Raman bands at around 3600 cm-1, attributed to Mg-OH stretching modes, and a shift of the overall band profile to higher wavenumbers. These observations are believed to be a result of the increase in magnesium in the structure. Raman spectroscopy shows a reduction in the symmetry of the carbonate, leading to the conclusion that the anions are bonded to the brucite-like hydroxyl surface and to the water in the interlayer. Water bending modes are identified in the infrared spectra at positions greater than 1630 cm-1, indicating the water is strongly hydrogen bonded to both the interlayer anions and the brucite-like surface.

Naming trouble in online internationalized education

This paper offers an analysis of cultural politics that emerged around naming practices in an ethnographic study of the interactions within an online MBA unit, offered by an Australian university to both ‘local’ Australian students and international students enrolled through a Malaysian partner institution. It became evident that names were doing important identity, textual and pedagogical work in these interactions and considerable interactive trouble arose over the social practices surrounding names. The analysis uses sociolinguistic concepts to analyse selected slices of the online texts and participants' interview accounts. The analysis shows how ethnocentric default settings in the courseware served to heighten and exacerbate cultural difference as a pedagogical problem. These events are related to the larger problematic of theorising the context of culture in times of globalisation and increasingly entangled educational routes, with implications for the enterprise of online internationalised education.

Towards globo sapiens : transforming learners in higher education

Global and local studies show that the present growth-based approach to development is unsustainable. If we are serious about surviving the 21st century we will need graduates who are not simply 'globally portable' or even 'globally competent', but also wise global citizens, Globo sapiens. This book contributes to what educators need to know, do and be in order to support transformative learning. The book is based on work with large, socially and culturally diverse, first-year engineering students at an Australian university of technology. It shows that reflective journals, with appropriate planning and support, can be one pillar of a transformative pedagogy which can encourage significant and even transformative attitude change in relation to gender, culture and the environment. It also offers evidence of improved communication skills and other tangible changes to counter common criticisms that such work is "airy-fairy" and irrelevant. The author combines communication theory with critical futures thinking to provide layered understandings of how transformative learning affected students' thinking, learning and behaviour. So the book is both a case-study and a detailed response to the personal and professional challenges that educators all over the world will face as they try to guide students in sustainable directions. It will be useful to teachers in higher education, especially those interested in internationalisation of the curriculum, transformative learning and values change for sustainable futures.

Comparing international television news : the case of violence presentation in Germany, Great Britain and Russia -- [in German : Gewalt in internationalen Fernsehnachrichten - eine komparative Analyse medialer Gewaltpräsentation in Deutschland, Großbritannien und Russland]

This is an important book that ought to launch a debate about how we research our understanding of the world, it is an innovative intervention in a vital public issue, and it is an elegant and scholarly hard look at what is actually happening. Jean Seaton, Prof of Media History, U of Westminster, UK & Official Historian of the BBC -- Summary: This book investigates the question of how comparative studies of international TV news (here: on violence presentation) can best be conceptualized in a way that allows for crossnational, comparative conclusions on an empirically validated basis. This book shows that such a conceptualization is necessary in order to overcome existing restrictions in the comparability of international analysis on violence presentation. Investigated examples include the most watched news bulletins in Great Britain (10o'clock news on the BBC), Germany (Tagesschau on ARD) and Russia (Vremja on Channel 1). This book highlights a substantial cross-national violence news flow as well as a cross-national visual violence flow (key visuals) as distinct transnational components. In addition, event-related textual analysis reveals how the historical rootedness of nations and its symbols of power are still manifested in televisual mediations of violence. In conclusion, this study lobbies for a conscientious use of comparative data/analysis both in journalism research and practice in order to understand what it may convey in the different arenas of today’s newsmaking.

Determinants of listed property trust bond ratings : Australian evidence

Using artificial neural networks (ANN) and ordinal regression (OR) as alternative methods to predict LPT bond ratings, we examine the role that various financial and industry variables have on Listed Property Trust (LPT) bond ratings issued by Standard and Poor’s from 1999-2006. Our study shows that both OR and ANN provide robust alternatives to rating LPT bonds and that there are no significant differences in results between the two full models. OR results show that of the financial variables used in our models, debt coverage and financial leverage ratios have the most profound effect on LPT bond ratings. Further, ANN results show that 73.0% of LPT bond rating is attributable to financial variables and 23.0% to industry-based variables with office LPT sector accounting for 2.6%, retail LPT 10.9% and stapled management structure 13.5%.

A study of Chinese private passenger cars based on BP neural network

This study employs BP neural network to simulate the development of Chinese private passenger cars. Considering the uncertain and complex environment for the development of private passenger cars, indicators of economy, population, price, infrastructure, income, energy and some other fields which have major impacts on it are selected at first. The network is proved to be operable to simulate the progress of chinese private passenger cars after modeling, training and generalization test. Based on the BP neural network model, sensitivity analysis of each indicator is carried on and shows that the sensitivity coefficients of fuel price change suddenly. This special phenomenon reveals that the development of Chinese private passenger cars may be seriously affected by the recent high fuel price. This finding is also consistent with facts and figures

Application of system dynamics for evaluating truck load regulations in Anhui, China

In the critical situation of prevailing overweight transportation and crag-fast enforcement in Chinese highway networks, this paper develops a methodological framework for truck weight regulation (TWR) evaluation using System Dynamics (SD). Composed of five interrelated subsystems, the framework is able to capture the highway, vehicle and freight variables that influence the effect of TWR and transportation efficiency over time. It specifically describes the development and use of the Truck Weight Regulation Evaluating Model (TWREM) for the highway freight system in Anhui province, China. Three policy alternatives are analyzed: 1) tolerant policy approach, which allows heavy-duty freight activity to continue in its current state, and is shown to lead to nearly catastrophic results; 2) rigid policy approach, which would terminate all heavy-duty freight activities immediately, and is shown to be economically infeasible; and 3) moderate policy approach, which advocates a gradual reduction of heavy-duty freight activities to a moderate state. The simulation results shows that the moderate policy approach is the most appropriate option to solve the social and economic problems arising from the activities of the heavy-duty freight transportation in Anhui. In addition, some suggestions of TWR policy in China are also made in this paper.

2,4-Diodoaniline

The structure of the title compound C6H6I2N shows a weak intermolecular amine-amine N--H...N hydrogen-bonding interaction giving a helical chain which extends along the axis. An intramolecular N-H...I hydrogen bond is also observed.

8-Ammonionaphthalene-2-sulfonate monohydrate : the zwitterionic hydrate of 1,7-Cleve's acid

The structure of 8-amino-2-naphthalenesulfonic acid monohydrate (1,7-Cleve's acid hydrate), C10H9NO3S.H2O, shows the presence of a sulfonate-aminium group zwitterion, both groups and the water molecule of solvation giving cyclic R3/3(8) intermolecular hydrogen-bonding interactions forming chains which extend down a axis of the unit cell. Additional peripheral associations, including weak aromatic ring pi-pi interactions [centroid-centroid distance 3.6299(15)A], result in a two-dimensional sheet structure.