Maps (pdf) and raster images (tif) of predicted rural land cover suitability under current (2010) conditions and future climate scenarios

This study projects land cover probabilities under climate change for corn (maize), soybeans, spring and winter wheat, winter wheat-soybean double cropping, cotton, grassland and forest across 16 central U.S. states at a high spatial resolution, while also taking into account the influence of soil characteristics and topography. The scenarios span three oceanic-atmospheric global circulation models, three Representative Concentration Pathways, and three time periods (2040, 2070, 2100). As climate change intensifies, the suitable area for all six crops display large northward shifts. Total suitable area for spring wheat, followed by corn and soybeans, diminish. Suitable area for winter wheat and for winter wheat-soybean double-cropping expand northward, while cotton suitability migrates to new, more northerly, locations. Suitability for forest intensifies in the south while yielding to crops in the north; grassland intensifies in the western Great Plains as crop suitability diminishes. To maintain current broad geographic patterns of land use, large changes in the thermal response of crops such as corn would be required. A transition from corn-soybean to winter wheat-soybean doubling cropping is an alternative adaptation.

Sea surface temperature reconstruction based on alkenones of sediment core M35003-4

Evidence for abrupt climate changes on millennial and shorter timescales is widespread in marine and terrestrial climate records (Dansgard et al., 1993, doi:10.1038/364218a0; Bond et al., 1993, doi:10.1038/365143a0; Charles et al., 1996, doi:10.1016/0012-821X(96)00083-0, Bard et al., 1997, doi:10.1038/385707a0). Rapid reorganization of ocean circulation is considered to exert some control over these changes (Broecker et al., 1985, doi:10.1038/315021a0), as are shifts in the concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (Broecker, 1994, doi:10.1038/372421a0). The response of the climate system to these two influences is fundamentally different: slowing of thermohaline overturn in the North Atlantic Ocean is expected to decrease northward heat transport by the ocean and to induce warming of the tropical Atlantic (Crowley, 1992, doi:10.1029/92PA01058; Manabe and Stouffer, 1997, doi:10.1029/96PA03932), whereas atmospheric greenhouse forcing should cause roughly synchronous global temperature changes (Manabe et al., 1991, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004<0785:TROACO>2.0.CO;2). So these two mechanisms of climate change should be distinguishable by the timing of surface-water temperature variations relative to changes in deep-water circulation. Here we present a high-temporal-resolution record of sea surface temperatures from the western tropical North Atlantic Ocean which spans the past 29,000 years, derived from measurements of temperature-sensitive alkenone unsaturation in sedimentary organic matter. We find significant warming is documented for Heinrich event H1 (16,900-15,400 calendar years bp) and the Younger Dryas event (12,900-11,600 cal. yr bp), which were periods of intense cooling in the northern North Atlantic. Temperature changes in the tropical and high-latitude North Atlantic are out of phase, suggesting that the thermohaline circulation was the important trigger for these rapid climate changes.

Dinoflagellate cysts analyses from sediment cores of the Po River discharge plume over the last two centuries

To obtain insight into the natural and/or human-induced changes in the trophic state of the distal portion of the Po River discharge plume over the last two centuries, high temporal resolution dinoflagellate cyst records were established at three sites. Cyst production rates appear to reflect the natural variability in the river's discharge, whereas cyst associations reflect the trophic state of the upper waters, which in turn can be related to agricultural development. The increased abundances of Lingulodinium machaerophorum and Stelladinium stellatum found as early as 1890 and 1920 correspond to the beginning of the industrial revolution in Italy and the first chemical production and dispersion of ammonia throughout Europe. After 1955, the increased abundances of these species and of Polykrikos schwartzii, Brigantedinium spp. and Pentapharsodinium dalei correspond to agriculturally induced alterations of the hypertrophic conditions. A slight improvement in water quality can be observed from 1987 onward.

Stable oxygen isotope and Mg/Ca data of Globigerinoides ruber white, water stable oxygen isotope data, SST and MAT records of sediment core GeoB6211-2

During Termination 1, millennial-scale weakening events of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) supposedly produced major changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the western South Atlantic, and in mean air temperatures (MATs) over southeastern South America. It has been suggested, for instance, that the Brazil Current (BC) would strengthen (weaken) and the North Brazil Current (NBC) would weaken (strengthen) during slowdown (speed-up) events of the AMOC. This anti-phase pattern was claimed to be a necessary response to the decreased North Atlantic heat piracy during periods of weak AMOC. However, the thermal evolution of the western South Atlantic and the adjacent continent is so far largely unknown. Here we address this issue, presenting high-temporal-resolution SST and MAT records from the BC and southeastern South America, respectively. We identify a warming in the western South Atlantic during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), which is followed first by a drop and then by increasing temperatures during the Bølling-Allerød, in phase with an existing SST record from the NBC. Additionally, a similar SST evolution is shown by a southernmost eastern South Atlantic record, suggesting a South Atlantic-wide pattern in SST evolution during most of Termination 1. Over southeastern South America, our MAT record shows a two-step increase during Termination 1, synchronous with atmospheric CO2 rise (i.e., during the second half of HS1 and during the Younger Dryas), and lagging abrupt SST changes by several thousand years. This delay corroborates the notion that the long duration of HS1 was fundamental in driving the Earth out of the last glacial.

Alkenone stable carbon isotopes, planktic foraminfera stable carbon isotopes, alkenone unsaturation indices and calculated sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pCO2 for ODP Site 165-999

Temperature reconstructions indicate that the Pliocene was ~3 °C warmer globally than today, and several recent reconstructions of Pliocene atmospheric CO2 indicate that it was above pre-industrial levels and similar to those likely to be seen this century. However, many of these reconstructions have been of relatively low temporal resolution, meaning that these records may have failed to capture variations associated with the 41 Kyr glacial-interglacial cycles thought to operate in the Pliocene. Here we present a new, high temporal resolution alkenone carbon isotope based record of pCO2 spanning 2.8 to 3.3 million years ago from ODP Site 999. Our record is of high enough resolution (~19 Kyrs) to resolve glacial-interglacial changes beyond the intrinsic uncertainty of the proxy method. The record suggests that Pliocene CO2 levels were relatively stable, exhibiting variation less than 55 ppm. We perform sensitivity studies to investigate the possible effect of changing sea surface temperature, which highlights the importance of accurate and precise SST reconstructions for alkenone palaeobarometry, but demonstrate that these uncertainties do not affect our conclusions of relatively stable pCO2 levels during this interval.

Age models, iron intensity, magnetic susceptibility records and dry bulk density of sediment cores from around the Canary Islands

A set of 43 sediment cores from around the Canary Islands is used to characterise this region, which intersects meridional climatic regimes and zonal productivity gradients in a high spatial resolution. Using rapid and nondestructive core logging techniques we carried out Fe intensity and magnetic susceptibility (MS) measurements and created a stack on the basis of five stratigraphic reference cores, for which a stratigraphic age model was available from d18O and 14C analyses on planktonic foraminifera. By correlation of the stack with the Fe and MS records of the other cores, we were able to develop age depth models at all investigated sites of the region. We present the bulk sediment accumulation rates (AR) of the Canary Islands region as an indicator of shifts in the upwelling-influenced areas for the Holocene (0-12 ky), the deglaciation (12-18 ky) and the last glacial (18-40 ky). General observations are an enhanced productivity during glacial times with highest values during the deglaciation. The main differences between the analysed time intervals we interpret as result of the sea-level effects, changes in the extent of high productivity areas, and current intensity.

Correlation between wet bulk density and carbonate content from IODP Hole 321-U1338A, 321-U1338B and 321-U1338C

Sediment cores collected from the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean display a clear positive second-order relationship between wet bulk density (WBD) and carbonate content. This has long interested the paleoceanography community because detailed Gamma Ray Attenuation Porosity Evaluator (GRAPE) measurements, which approximate WBD, might be used to determine records of carbonate content at very high temporal resolution. Although general causes for the relationship are known, they have not been presented and discussed systematically on the basis of first principles. In this study, we measure the mass and carbonate content of 50 sediment samples with known WBD from Site U1338, before and after rinsing with de-ionized water; we also determine the mass related proportion of coarse (> 63 µm) material. Samples exhibit clear relationships between WBD, carbonate content, mass loss upon rinsing, and grain size. We develop a series of mathematical expressions to describe these relationships, and solve them numerically. As noted by previous workers, the second-order relationship between WBD and carbonate content results from the mixing of biogenic carbonate and biogenic silica, which have different grain densities and different porosities. However, at high carbonate content, a wide range in WBD occurs because samples with greater amounts of coarse carbonate have higher porosity. Moreover compaction impacts carbonate particles more than biogenic silica particles. As such, a single two-component equation cannot be used to determine carbonate content accurately across depth intervals where both the porosity and type of carbonate vary. Instead, the WBD-carbonate relationship is described by an infinite series of curves, each which represents mixing of multiple sediment components with different densities and porosities. Dissolved ions also precipitate from pore space during sample drying, which adds mass to the sediment. Without rinsing samples, simple empirical relationships between WBD and carbonate content are further skewed by salt dilution.

(Table 1) Age determination of ODP Leg 166 holes

Thick, late Quaternary sediment sections were recovered at several sites on the leeward slope of Great Bahama Bank during Leg 166 of the Ocean Drilling Program. These sections have paleoceanographic records with potentially high temporal resolution. To make an initial assessment of the records corresponding to the Holocene highstand of sea level, we have identified and dated the sediments from the four upper slope sites (1004, 1005, 1008, and 1009) that were deposited during the period of time which spans the last glaciation through the Holocene. Age identifications are based upon the abundances of the Globorotalia menardii complex of planktonic foraminifera, the stable oxygen isotopic ratios of bulk sediment and the planktonic foraminifera Globogerinoides ruber, and AMS C-14 dating of bulk sediment. Comparison of these data with the sediment lithologic and geoacoustic properties shows that consistent stratigraphic relationships exist at each site: The uppermost interval of aragonite-rich sediments corresponds to the Holocene highstand of sea level (i.e. oxygen isotope stage 1) and these sediments are underlain by a relatively thin interval of aragonite-poor, partially lithified sediments which corresponds to the last glaciation when sea level was significantly lower than today (i.e. oxygen isotope stages 2-4). The Leg 166 upper slope sites possess carbonate accumulation and paleoceanographic proxy records with very high temporal resolution, with Sites 1004, 1008, and 1009 appearing to have the greatest stratigraphic integrity. Comparison of core and high-resolution seismic profile data establishes the Holocene nature of the uppermost seismic unit in the stratigraphic package of the western slope of Great Bahama Bank.

A rare earth element study of complex zircons from early Archaean Amitsoq gneisses, Godthåbsfjord, south-west Greenland

We present high spatial resolution ion-microprobe rare earth element (REE) data for discrete growth phases of complex polyphase zircons from early Archaean Amitsoq gneisses, outer Godthabsfjord, SW Greenland. In Matsuda diagrams, the two major growth phases, >3.8 Ga cores and ca. 3.65 Ga rims, have steep positive slopes from La to Lu, prominent positive Ce anomalies and negative Eu anomalies that are consistent with growth in a melt. Exceptions to this are non-cathodolurnmescent zircon developed between the cores and rims, sometimes truncating zoning in the cores, and late Archaean prismatic tip overgrowths, both of which exhibit flatter light REE (LREE) patterns and have small or no Eu anomaly, which we interpret as the result of metamorphism and/or small-degree, isolated partial melting. Our data support previous interpretations that the ca. 3.65 Ga zircon phase was generated in a melt, with the >3.8 Ga phase representing either original protolith zircons in a large degree partial melt or inherited zircons in an introduced magma. Regardless which of these two interpretations is correct for these, and similar, rocks in the outer GodthAbsfjord, the 3.65 Ga event will have profoundly affected isotopic systems and obscured beyond recognition any earlier igneous features such as cross-cutting relationships, which may only be assigned a minimum 3.65 Ga age. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Fluctuations and single molecules

The fluorescence of single molecules coupled to a thermal bath is studied both experimentally and theoretically. The effect of different fluctuations on the coherence properties of resonance fluorescence is considered first. Coherence is measured in an interference experiment where a single molecule is used as a light source. A standard approach based on the optical Bloch equations apparently provides quite an accurate description of the interference experiment. Systems with long correlation times (where spectra are time dependent on any timescale) are considered next. It is shown that intensity-time-frequency correlation spectroscopy, which provides both high signal-to-noise ratio and high time resolution, is very suitable for such a case. The Bloch equations are further tested in an experiment where the shape of an excitation spectral line of a single molecule is accurately measured over six orders of magnitude of the exciting laser power. Significant deviations from the predictions of the Bloch equations are found. The role of critical parameters-the correlation time of the bath, the Rabi oscillation period, and the coupling constant between the bath and the molecule-is discussed. The paper also includes a short general introduction to the methodology of single-molecule studies.