947 resultados para Hierarchical Bayesian Methods


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Hepatitis B is a worldwide health problem affecting about 2 billion people and more than 350 million are chronic carriers of the virus. Nine HBV genotypes (A to I) have been described. The geographical distribution of HBV genotypes is not completely understood due to the limited number of samples from some parts of the world. One such example is Colombia, in which few studies have described the HBV genotypes. In this study, we characterized HBV genotypes in 143 HBsAg-positive volunteer blood donors from Colombia. A fragment of 1306 bp partially comprising HBsAg and the DNA polymerase coding regions (S/POL) was amplified and sequenced. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses were conducted using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to obtain the maximum clade credibility (MCC) tree using BEAST v.1.5.3. Of all samples, 68 were positive and 52 were successfully sequenced. Genotype F was the most prevalent in this population (77%) - subgenotypes F3 (75%) and Fib (2%). Genotype G (7.7%) and subgenotype A2 (15.3%) were also found. Genotype G sequence analysis suggests distinct introductions of this genotype in the country. Furthermore, we estimated the time of the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) for each HBV/F subgenotype and also for Colombian F3 sequences using two different datasets: (i) 77 sequences comprising 1306 bp of S/POL region and (ii) 283 sequences comprising 681 bp of S/POL region. We also used two other previously estimated evolutionary rates: (i) 2.60 x 10(-4) s/s/y and (ii) 1.5 x 10(-5) s/s/y. Here we report the HBV genotypes circulating in Colombia and estimated the TMRCA for the four different subgenotypes of genotype F. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Fuzzy Bayesian tests were performed to evaluate whether the mother`s seroprevalence and children`s seroconversion to measles vaccine could be considered as ""high"" or ""low"". The results of the tests were aggregated into a fuzzy rule-based model structure, which would allow an expert to influence the model results. The linguistic model was developed considering four input variables. As the model output, we obtain the recommended age-specific vaccine coverage. The inputs of the fuzzy rules are fuzzy sets and the outputs are constant functions, performing the simplest Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model. This fuzzy approach is compared to a classical one, where the classical Bayes test was performed. Although the fuzzy and classical performances were similar, the fuzzy approach was more detailed and revealed important differences. In addition to taking into account subjective information in the form of fuzzy hypotheses it can be intuitively grasped by the decision maker. Finally, we show that the Bayesian test of fuzzy hypotheses is an interesting approach from the theoretical point of view, in the sense that it combines two complementary areas of investigation, normally seen as competitive. (C) 2007 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Objective: The etiology of hypoactive sexual desire disorder (HSDD) is known to be multifactorial, involving biological, psychosexual, and context-related factors. The objective of the present study was to analyze the factors associated with female HSDD and to stratify these factors according to their importance. Methods: This was a population-based, hierarchical study conducted in Brazil, based on data from previous research on the Brazilian Sexual Life Study, conducted between November 2002 and February 2003 in various Brazilian cities. The primary study consisted of a self-administered and anonymous questionnaire, addressing sociodemographic parameters, general health, life habits, behavior, and complaints related to sexual function. The association between HSDD and various other factors was assessed. The data were evaluated by hierarchical multiple regression analysis. Results: The prevalence of HSDD in this sample was 9.5%. Associations were found with cardiovascular disease, breast cancer, posttraumatic stress, poorer education level, being older, being married, a lack of information on sexuality in childhood/adolescence, and a limited sexual repertoire. Women who consumed moderate amounts of alcohol were found to be less likely to have HSDD. Conclusions: Analysis of the associated factors classified in order of importance and analysis of the characteristics of the sexual relationships provide additional information to currently available data on the traditional concepts of HSDD.

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Background Airway bypass is a bronchoscopic lung-volume reduction procedure for emphysema whereby transbronchial passages into the lung are created to release trapped air, supported with paclitaxel-coated stents to ease the mechanics of breathing. The aim of the EASE (Exhale airway stents for emphysema) trial was to evaluate safety and efficacy of airway bypass in people with severe homogeneous emphysema. Methods We undertook a randomised, double-blind, sham-controlled study in 38 specialist respiratory centres worldwide. We recruited 315 patients who had severe hyperinflation (ratio of residual volume [RV] to total lung capacity of >= 0.65). By computer using a random number generator, we randomly allocated participants (in a 2:1 ratio) to either airway bypass (n=208) or sham control (107). We divided investigators into team A (masked), who completed pre-procedure and post-procedure assessments, and team B (unmasked), who only did bronchoscopies without further interaction with patients. Participants were followed up for 12 months. The 6-month co-primary efficacy endpoint required 12% or greater improvement in forced vital capacity (FVC) and 1 point or greater decrease in the modified Medical Research Council dyspnoea score from baseline. The composite primary safety endpoint incorporated five severe adverse events. We did Bayesian analysis to show the posterior probability that airway bypass was superior to sham control (success threshold, 0.965). Analysis was by intention to treat. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00391612. Findings All recruited patients were included in the analysis. At 6 months, no difference between treatment arms was noted with respect to the co-primary efficacy endpoint (30 of 208 for airway bypass vs 12 of 107 for sham control; posterior probability 0.749, below the Bayesian success threshold of 0.965). The 6-month composite primary safety endpoint was 14.4% (30 of 208) for airway bypass versus 11.2% (12 of 107) for sham control (judged non-inferior, with a posterior probability of 1.00 [Bayesian success threshold >0.95]). Interpretation Although our findings showed safety and transient improvements, no sustainable benefit was recorded with airway bypass in patients with severe homogeneous emphysema.

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Objective. To explore the relationship between biomarkers of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), interferon (IFN)-regulated gene expression, and the alternative activation pathway in systemic sclerosis (SSc). Methods. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) were purified from healthy controls, patients with idiopathic PAH, and SSc patients (classified as having diffuse cutaneous SSc, limited cutaneous SSc [lcSSc] without PAH, and lcSSc with PAH). IFN-regulated and ""PAH biomarker"" genes were compared after supervised hierarchical clustering. Messenger RNA levels of selected IFN-regulated genes (Siglec1 and MX1), biomarker genes (IL13RA1, CCR1, and JAK2), and the alternative activation marker gene (MRC1) were analyzed on PBMCs and on CD14- and CD14+ cell populations. Interleukin-13 (IL-13) and IL-4 concentrations were measured in plasma by immunoassay. CD14, MRC1, and IL13RA1 surface expression was analyzed by flow cytometry. Results. Increased PBMC expression of both IFN-regulated and biomarker genes distinguished SSc patients from healthy controls. Expression of genes in the biomarker cluster, but not in the IFN-regulated cluster, distinguished lcSSc with PAH from lcSSc without PAH. The genes CCR1 (P < 0.001) and JAK2 (P < 0.001) were expressed more highly in lcSSc patients with PAH compared with controls and mainly by CD14+ cells. MRC1 expression was increased exclusively in lcSSc patients with PAH (P < 0.001) and correlated strongly with pulmonary artery pressure (r = 0.52, P = 0.03) and higher mortality (P = 0.02). MRC1 expression was higher in CD14+ cells and was greatly increased by stimulation with IL-13. IL-13 concentrations in plasma were most highly increased in lcSSc patients with PAH (P < 0.001). Conclusion. IFN-regulated and biomarker genes represent distinct, although related, clusters in lcSSc patients with PAH. MRC1, a marker for the effect of IL-13 on alternative monocyte/macrophage activation, is associated with this severe complication and is related to mortality.

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Understanding the mating patterns of populations of tree species is a key component of ex situ genetic conservation. In this study, we analysed the genetic diversity, spatial genetic structure (SGS) and mating system at the hierarchical levels of fruits and individuals as well as pollen dispersal patterns in a continuous population of Theobroma cacao in Para State, Brazil. A total of 156 individuals in a 0.56 ha plot were mapped and genotyped for nine microsatellite loci. For the mating system analyses, 50 seeds were collected from nine seed trees by sampling five fruits per tree (10 seeds per fruit). Among the 156 individuals, 127 had unique multilocus genotypes, and the remaining were clones. The population was spatially aggregated; it demonstrated a significant SGS up to 15m that could be attributed primarily to the presence of clones. However, the short seed dispersal distance also contributed to this pattern. Population matings occurred mainly via outcrossing, but selfing was observed in some seed trees, which indicated the presence of individual variation for self-incompatibility. The matings were also correlated, especially within ((r) over cap (p(m)) = 0.607) rather than among the fruits ((r) over cap (p(m)) = 0.099), which suggested that a small number of pollen donors fertilised each fruit. The paternity analysis suggested a high proportion of pollen migration (61.3%), although within the plot, most of the pollen dispersal encompassed short distances (28m). The determination of these novel parameters provides the fundamental information required to establish long-term ex situ conservation strategies for this important tropical species. Heredity (2011) 106, 973-985; doi:10.1038/hdy.2010.145; published online 8 December 2010

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BACKGROUND CONTEXT: The vertebral spine angle in the frontal plane is an important parameter in the assessment of scoliosis and may be obtained from panoramic X-ray images. Technological advances have allowed for an increased use of digital X-ray images in clinical practice. PURPOSE: In this context, the objective of this study is to assess the reliability of computer-assisted Cobb angle measurements taken from digital X-ray images. STUDY DESIGN/SETTING: Clinical investigation quantifying scoliotic deformity with Cobb method to evaluate the intra- and interobserver variability using manual and digital techniques. PATIENT SAMPLE: Forty-nine patients diagnosed with idiopathic scoliosis were chosen based on convenience, without predilection for gender, age, type, location, or magnitude of the curvature. OUTCOME MEASURES: Images were examined to evaluate Cobb angle variability, end plate selection, as well as intra- and interobserver errors. METHODS: Specific software was developed to digitally reproduce the Cobb method and calculate semiautomatically the degree of scoliotic deformity. During the study, three observers estimated the Cobb angle using both the digital and the traditional manual methods. RESULTS: The results showed that Cobb angle measurements may be reproduced in the computer as reliably as with the traditional manual method, in similar conditions to those found in clinical practice. CONCLUSIONS: The computer-assisted method (digital method) is clinically advantageous and appropriate to assess the scoliotic curvature in the frontal plane using Cobb method. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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This in vivo study evaluated the osteogenic potential of two proteins, recombinant human bone morphogenetic protein-2 (rhBMP-2) and a protein extracted from natural latex (Hevea brasiliensis, P-1), and compared their effects on bone defects when combined with a carrier or a collagen gelatin. Eighty-four (84) Wistar rats were divided into two groups, with and without the use of collagen gelatin, and each of these were divided into six treatment groups of seven animals each. The treatment groups were: (1) 5 mu g of pure rhBMP-2; (2) 5 mu g of rhBMP-2/monoolein gel; (3) pure monoolein gel; (4) 5 mu g of pure P-1; (5) 5 mu g of P-1/monoolein gel; (6) critical bone defect control. The animals were anesthetized and a 6 mm diameter critical bone defect was made in the left posterior region of the parietal bone. Animals were submitted to intracardiac perfusion after 4 weeks and the calvaria tissue was removed for histomorphometric analysis. In this experimental study, it was concluded that rhBMP-2 allowed greater new bone formation than P-1 protein and this process was more effective when the bone defect was covered with collagen gelatin (P < 0.05). Anat Rec, 293:794-801, 2010. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.