Torroella-l'Estartit: el turisme i els seus cicles

Valoració de la temporada turística a Torroella i l’Estartit al 1995. També s’aprofita per fer un repàs sobre l’evolució del turisme en aquesta zona, i per fer algunes recomanacions sobre el model de gestió i activitat turística

Forecasting tourism demand to Catalonia: neural networks vs. time series models

The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more accurate forecasts of tourismdemand at the destination level due to the constant growth of world tourism, has lead us to evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling relative to that of time seriesmethods at a regional level. Seasonality and volatility are important features of tourism data, which makes it a particularly favourable context in which to compare the forecasting performance of linear models to that of nonlinear alternative approaches. Pre-processed official statistical data of overnight stays and tourist arrivals fromall the different countries of origin to Catalonia from 2001 to 2009 is used in the study. When comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques for different time horizons, autoregressive integrated moving average models outperform self-exciting threshold autoregressions and artificial neural network models, especially for shorter horizons. These results suggest that the there is a trade-off between the degree of pre-processing and the accuracy of the forecasts obtained with neural networks, which are more suitable in the presence of nonlinearity in the data. In spite of the significant differences between countries, which can be explained by different patterns of consumer behaviour,we also find that forecasts of tourist arrivals aremore accurate than forecasts of overnight stays.

Arqueología de paisajes altimontanos pirenaicos: formas de explotación y usos del medio en época romana en valle del Madriu-Perafita-Claror (Andorra) y en la Sierra del Cadí (Alt Urgell)

long-term cultural history of the Madriu-Perafita-Claror valleys (Andorra) and the Cadí Range (Catalonia) has been investigated thanks to the combination of archaeological surveys and excavation, analysis of written sources, multiproxy alaeoenvironment analysis (pollen, NPP, micro and macro charcoal, sedimentology and geochemistry), and digital technologies such as stereophotogrammetry, multispectral imaging, DGPS and GIS. The project has been designed from a landscape archaeology approach and the study area has been selected due to the suitable setting it provides for a meaningful application of the aforementioned techniques. Consequently, archaeological, historical and palaeoenvironmental data have been all treated as cultural proxies. Their comparison has allowed obtaining not only coherent but also complementary results. The project outcomes show an uninterrupted occupation of these high mountain valleys (2000-2600 m a.s.l.) from the Mesolithic until the present. This human occupation shows strong spatial and chronological variability in human practices ranging from a stable long term group occupation in the Late Neolithic to the diversification of representative practices during the Roman period (metallurgy, pine resin exploitation, charcoal production, pastoralism, etc.). This high diversity of activities leads to complex cultural landscapes in the high Pyrenean areas. The reconstruction of the cultural history at the study areas will allow the development of more sustainable politics for these landscapes management.

Cross-scale analysis of the region effect on vascular plant species diversity in southern and northern European mountain ranges.

Background: The divergent glacial histories of southern and northern Europe affect present-day species diversity at coarse-grained scales in these two regions, but do these effects also penetrate to the more fine-grained scales of local communities?Methodology/Principal Findings: We carried out a cross-scale analysis to address this question for vascular plants in two mountain regions, the Alps in southern Europe and the Scandes in northern Europe, using environmentally paired vegetation plots in the two regions (n = 403 in each region) to quantify four diversity components: (i) total number of species occurring in a region (total gamma-diversity), (ii) number of species that could occur in a target plot after environmental filtering (habitat-specific gamma-diversity), (iii) pair-wise species compositional turnover between plots (plot-to-plot beta-diversity) and (iv) number of species present per plot (plot gamma-diversity). We found strong region effects on total gamma-diversity, habitat-specific gamma-diversity and plot-to-plot beta-diversity, with a greater diversity in the Alps even towards distances smaller than 50 m between plots. In contrast, there was a slightly greater plot alpha-diversity in the Scandes, but with a tendency towards contrasting region effects on high and low soil-acidity plots.Conclusions/Significance: We conclude that there are strong regional differences between coarse-grained (landscape- to regional-scale) diversity components of the flora in the Alps and the Scandes mountain ranges,but that these differences do not necessarily penetrate to the finest-grained (plot-scale) diversity component, at least not on acidic soils. Because different processes can lead to a similar pattern, we discuss the consistency of our results with Quaternary history and other divergent features between the two regions such as habitat connectivity, selection for vagility and environmental differences not accounted for in our analyses

Settlement evolution, field systems and sedimentary processes in a Mediterranean mid-mountain (Montseny Massif, Catalunya)

This paper presents the first results of a current research project about human – environmental interactions in the Montseny Massif. Our work sets out to integrate two research lines in the studied area: - Archaeological and archaeo-morphological surveys in a lower part of the mountains in order to characterize the evolution of the settlements and field systems. - The geological and geomorphological characterization of the slope and terrace deposits in relation with field systems and archaeological data. First results point out the intensive occupation of these inland areas during the Iberian and the Roman periods. Post-Roman sediments show different processes of erosion.

Laboratory diagnosis of brucellosis in a rural endemic area in northeastern Spain

Sera obtained from 62 patients from four mountain counties in Catalonia (Northeastern Spain), in whom brucellosis had been diagnosed on the basis of clinical evidence and/or personal history, were analyzed using the rose Bengal test, standard serum agglutination test (SAT), Coombs" test, ELISA, and complement fixation. The diagnosis was further confirmed through blood cultures. Clinical evidence, epidemiology, and the results from serologic tests were used to assign patients to one of two groups: group 1 (n = 38) patients had primary infections, whereas group 2 (n = 24) patients had been previously exposed to the microorganism, i.e. re-infection of group 2 individuals occurred after long periods of time during which no active infection by Brucella had been detected. Receivingoperating charts (ROC) were used to determine the diagnostic value of the different tests and to establish discriminant values. Blood culture was a valuable diagnostic tool in group 1 (0.92 sensitivity) but was inappropriate in group 2 (0.08). The combination of positive rose Bengal test and agglutination ≥1/160 was valid for diagnosis in group 1. In group 2, agglutination < 1/160 (including negative agglutination) did not rule out brucellosis. The combination of positive rose Bengal test and Coombs" test ≥1/320 was the best diagnostic criterion (0.8 specificity; 1 sensitivity). ELISA (for IgG, IgM, or both) did not improve diagnostic accuracy

Characterization and management of rockslide hazard at Turtle Mountain, Alberta, Canada

In 1903, more than 30 million m3 of rock fell from the east slopes of Turtle Mountain in Alberta, Canada, causing a rock avalanche that killed about 70 people in the town of Frank. The Alberta Government, in response to continuing instabilities at the crest of the mountain, established a sophisticated field laboratory where state-of-the-art monitoring techniques have been installed and tested as part of an early-warning system. In this chapter, we provide an overview of the causes, trigger, and extreme mobility of the landslide. We then present new data relevant to the characterization and detection of the present-day instabilities on Turtle Mountain. Fourteen potential instabilities have been identified through field mapping and remote sensing. Lastly, we provide a detailed review of the different in-situ and remote monitoring systems that have been installed on the mountain. The implications of the new data for the future stability of Turtle Mountain and related landslide runout, and for monitoring strategies and risk management, are discussed.

Continent wide response of mountain vegetation to climate change

Climate impact studies have indicated ecological fingerprints of recent global warming across a wide range of habitats. Whereas these studies have shown responses from various local case studies, a coherent large-scale account on temperature-driven changes of biotic communities has been lacking. Here we use 867 vegetation samples above the treeline from 60 summit sites in all major European mountain systems to show that ongoing climate change gradually transforms mountain plant communities. We provide evidence that the more cold-adapted species decline and the more warm-adapted species increase, a process described here as thermophilisation. At the scale of individual mountains this general trend may not be apparent, but at the¦larger, continental scale we observed a significantly higher abundance of thermophilic species in 2008, compared with 2001. Thermophilisation of mountain plant communities mirrors the degree of recent warming and is more pronounced in areas where the temperature increase has been higher. In view of the projected climate change the observed transformation suggests a progressive decline of cold mountain habitats and their biota.

Geology, correlations, and geodynamic evolution of the Biga Peninsula (NW Turkey)

L?objectif de ce travail de recherche était de décrypter l?évolution géodynamique de la Péninsule de Biga (Turquie du N-O), à travers l?analyse de deux régions géologiques peu connues, le mélange de Çetmi et la zone d?Ezine (i.e. le Groupe d?Ezine et l?ophiolite de Denizgören). Une étude complète et détaillée de terrain (cartographie et échantillonnage) ainsi qu?une approche multidisciplinaire (sédimentologie de faciès, pétrographie sédimentaire et magmatique, micropaléontologie, datations absolues, géochimie sur roche totale, cristallinité de l?illite) ont permis d?obtenir de nouveaux éléments d?information sur la région considérée. ? Le mélange de Çetmi, de type mélange d?accrétion, affleure au nord et au sud de la Péninsule de Biga ; les principaux résultats de son étude peuvent se résumer comme suit: - Son aspect structural actuel (nature des contacts, organisation tectonique) est principalement dû au régime extensif Tertiaire présent dans la région. - Il est constitué de blocs de différentes natures : rares calcaires Scythien-Ladinien dans le faciès Han Bulog, blocs hectométriques de calcaires d?âge Norien-Rhaetien de rampe carbonatée, nombreux blocs décamétriques de radiolarites rouges d?âge Bajocien- Aptien, blocs/écailles de roches magmatiques de type spilites (basaltes à andésite), ayant des signatures géochimiques d?arcs ou intra-plaques. - La matrice du mélange est constituée d?une association greywacke-argilites dont l?âge Albien inférieur à moyen a été déterminé par palynologie. - L?activité du mélange s?est terminée avant le Cénomanien (discordance Cénomanienne au sommet du mélange, pas de bloc plus jeune que la matrice). - Du point de vue de ses corrélations latérales, le mélange de Çetmi partage plus de traits communs avec les mélanges se trouvant dans les nappes allochtones du Rhodope (nord de la Grèce et sud-ouest de la Bulgarie) qu?avec ceux de la suture Izmir-Ankara (Turquie); il apparaît finalement que sa mise en place s?est faite dans une logique balkanique (chevauchements vers le nord d?âge anté-Cénomanien). ? Le Groupe d?Ezine et l?ophiolite sus-jacente de Denizgören affleurent dans la partie ouest de la Péninsule de Biga. Le Groupe d?Ezine est une épaisse séquence sédimentaire continue (3000 m), subdivisée en trois formations, caractérisée chacune par un type de sédimentation spécifique, relatif à un environnement de dépôt particulier. De par ses caractéristiques (grande épaisseur, variations latérales de faciès et d?épaisseur dans les formations, érosion de matériel provenant de l?amont du bassin), le groupe d?Ezine est interprétée comme un dépôt syn-rift d?âge Permien moyen-Trias inférieur. Il pourrait représenter une partie de la future marge passive sud Rhodopienne à la suite de l?ouverture de l?océan Maliac/Méliata. L?ophiolite de Denizgören sus-jacente repose sur le Groupe d?Ezine par l?intermédiaire d?une semelle métamorphique à gradient inverse, du faciès amphibolite à schiste vert. L?âge du faciès amphibolite suggère une initiation de l?obduction au Barrémien (125 Ma, âge Ar/Ar); cet âge est unique dans le domaine égéen, mais il peut là aussi être relié à une logique balkanique, sur la base de comparaison avec le domaine Rhodopien. ? Toutes les unités précédentes (mélange de Çetmi, Groupe d?Ezine et ophiolite de Denizgören) ont passivement subi trois phases extensives pendant le Tertiaire. Dans la région d?Ezine et du mélange nord, les micaschistes HP sous-jacents ont été exhumés avant l?Eocène moyen. Dans le cas du mélange sud, cette exhumation Eocene est en partie enregistrée dans les mylonites séparant le mélange du dôme métamorphique sous-jacent du Kazda?. Le mélange sud est dans tous les cas fortement érodé à la suite de la double surrection du dôme du Kazda?, près de la lim ite Oligocène/Miocene et pendant le Plio- Quaternaire. Dans le premier cas, ce soulèvement est caractérisé par le développement d?une faille de détachement à faible pendage, qui contrôle à la fois l?exhumation du massif, et la formation d?un bassin sédimentaire syntectonique, de type bassin supradétachement; quant à la phase extensive la plus récente, elle est contrôlée par le jeu de failles normales à forts pendages qui remanient l?ensemble des structures héritées, et dictent la géomorphologie actuelle de la région. ? Il est possible de proposer un scénario pour l?évolution géodynamique de la Péninsule de Biga, basé sur l?ensemble des résultats précédents et sur les données de la géologie régionale ; ses points principaux sont: - La Péninsule de Biga fait partie de la marge Rhodopienne. - Le Groupe d?Ezine est un témoin de la marge passive nord Maliac/Méliata. - L?ophiolite de Denizgören et le mélange de Çetmi ont été mis en place tous deux vers le nord sur la marge précédente, respectivement au Barrémien et à l?Albien terminal- Cénomanien inférieur. - Une forte composante décrochante durant l?emplacement est suggérée par la préservation de fragments de la marge passive et l?absence de métamorphisme dans la plaque inférieure. - Tous les évènements précédents ont été largement affectés par le régime d?extension Tertiaire.<br/><br/>The purpose of this study is to unravel the geodynamic evolution of the Biga Peninsula (NW Turkey) through the detailed study of two poorly known areas, the Çetmi mélange and the Ezine zone (i.e. the Ezine Group and the Denizgören ophiolite). The methodology was based on a detailed field work and a multidisciplinary approach. ? The accretion-related Çetmi mélange is mainly cropping out north and south of the Biga Peninsula; the main results of its study can be summarized as follows: -Its present-day structural aspect (type of contacts, tectonic organisation) is largely inherited from the Tertiary extensional regime in the region. -It is made of blocks of various natures: Han Bulog limestones with a Scythian to Ladinian age, common carbonate ramp Norian-Rhaetian limestones (biggest blocks of the mélange), red radolarite with a Bajocian to Aptian age; the most common lithology of the mélange is made by block/slices of spilitic magmatic rocks (basalt to andesite); they have volcanic arc or within plate basalt geochemical signatures. -The matrix of the mélange is made of a greywacke-shale association of Early-Middle Albian age. - The mélange stopped its activity before the Cenomanian (no younger blocks than the matrix, and Cenomanian unconformity). - If compared to the regional geology, the Çetmi mélange shares some characteristics with the Izmir-Ankara mélanges (less), and with the mélanges from allochthonous nappes found in eastern Rhodope (more); it appears finally that its emplacement is related to a Balkanic logic (ante-Cenomanian northward thrusting). ? The Ezine Group and the overlying Denizgören ophiolite are cropping out in the western part of the Biga Peninsula. The Ezine Group is a thick sedimentary sequence interpreted as a syn-rift deposit of Middle Permian-Early Triassic age. It represents a part of the south Rhodopian passive margin, following the opening of the Maliac/Meliata oceanic domain. The Denizgören ophiolite has been emplaced northward on the Ezine Group in the Barremian (125 Ma, age of the amphibolitic sole); this age is unique in the Aegean domain, but here again, it may be related to a Balkan logic. ? All the previous units (Çetmi mélange, Ezine Group and Denizgören ophiolite) have passively suffered two extensional regimes during the Tertiary. In the Ezine and northern Çetmi mélange area, the underlying HP Çamlýca micaschists were exhumed before the Middle Eocene. As for the southern mélange, it was strongly eroded following the Late Oligocene to Quaternary uplift of the underlying Kazda? Massif. This uplift was characterized by the development of a low-angle detachment fault controlling a part of the exhumation, as well as the development of a supra-detachment basin. ? Based on the previous results, and on the data from the regional geology, one can propose a scenario for the geodynamic evolution of the Biga Peninsula. Its key points are:- The Biga Peninsula is belonging to the Rhodope margin. - The Ezine Group is a remnant of the northern Maliac/Meliata passive margin. - Both the Denizgören ophiolite and the Çetmi mélange have been emplaced northward on the previous margin, respectively in the Barremian and in the Late Albian-Early Cenomanian times. - The preservation of the remnants of the Rhodope margin, as well as the absence of metamorphism in the lower plate suggest a strong strike-slip component during the emplacements. - All the previous events are (at least) partly obliterated by the Tertiary extensional regime.<br/><br/>Le géologue est comme un «historien» de la Terre, qui porte un intérêt particulier à l?étude du passé de notre planète; ce dernier, très ancien, se mesure en dizaines ou centaines de millions d?années (Ma). Or le visage de la terre a constamment évolué au cours des ces millions d?années écoulés, car les plaques (continentales et océaniques) qui composent son enveloppe superficielle ne restent pas immobiles, mais se déplacent continuellement à sa surface, à une vitesse de l?ordre du cm/an (théorie de la tectonique des plaques); c?est ainsi, par exemple, que des océans naissent, grandissent, puis finissent par se refermer. On appelle sutures océaniques, les zones, aujourd?hui sur la terre ferme, où l?on retrouve les restes d?océans disparus. Ces sutures sont caractérisées par deux associations distinctes de roches, que l?on appelle les mélanges et les ophiolites; ces mélanges et ophiolites sont donc les témoins de l?activité passée d?un océan aujourd?hui refermé. L?équipe de recherche dans laquelle ce travail à été réalisé s?intéresse à un vaste domaine océanique fossile: l?océan Néotéthys. Cet océan, de plusieurs milliers de kilomètres de large, séparait alors l?Europe et l?Asie au nord, de l?Afrique, l?Inde et l?Australie au sud. De cet océan, il n?en subsiste aujourd?hui qu?une infime partie, qui se confond avec notre mer Méditerranée actuelle. Or, tout comme l?océan Pacifique est bordé de mers plus étroites (Mer de Chine, du Japon, etc?), l?océan Néotéthys était bordé au nord de mers marginales. C?est dans ce cadre que s?est inscrit mon travail de thèse, puisqu?il a consisté en l?étude d?une suture océanique (mélange plus ophiolite), témoin d?une des mers qui bordait l?océan Néotéthys sur sa marge nord. L?objectif était de préciser de quelle suture il s?agissait, puis de déterminer quand et comment elle avait fonctionné (i.e son évolution géologique). Les roches qui composent cette suture affleurent aujourd?hui en Turquie nord occidentale dans la Péninsule de Biga. Au nord et au sud de la péninsule se trouvent les zones géologique du mélange de Çetmi, et à l?ouest, le Groupe d?Ezine et l?ophiolite susjacente, dite ophiolite de Denizgören. Une étude complète et détaillée de terrain (cartographie, échantillonnage), suivie de diverses analyses en laboratoire (détermination de leur âge, de leur condition de formation, etc?), ont permis d?aboutir aux principaux résultats suivants : - Mise en évidence dans le mélange de Çetmi des témoins (1) de l?océan Lycien disparu (ancienne mer marginale de la Néotéthys), et (2) de la marge continentale qui le bordait au nord. - Fin de l?activité du mélange de Çetmi il y a environ 105 Ma (Albien). - Le mélange de Çetmi est difficilement corrélable dans le temps avec les unités semblables affleurant dans la région d?étude (unicité du mélange), ce qui implique des conditions particulière de formation. - L?ophiolite de Denizgören est un morceau d?océan Lycien posé sur un reste préservé de sa marge continentale nord. - Cette dernière est représentée sur le terrain par une succession de roches caractéristiques, le Groupe d?Ezine. Celui-ci est lui-même un témoin de l?ouverture d?un océan marginal de la Néotethys antérieur au Lycien, l?océan Maliac, qui s?est ouvert il y a 245 Ma (Permien-Trias). - La mise en place de l?ophiolite de Denizgören sur le Groupe d?Ezine (125 Ma, Barrémien) est antérieure à la mise en place du mélange de Çetmi. - Il apparaît que ces deux mises en place sont contemporaines de la formation de la chaîne des Balkans, terminée avant le Cénomanien (100 Ma). - L?évolution dans le temps des objets précédents (océans, marges continentales) montre de grands mouvements latéraux est-ouest entre ces objets (translation). Ce qui implique que les roches que l?on retrouve aujourd?hui sur un transect nord-sud ne l?étaient pas nécessairement auparavant. - Enfin, il s?avère que le mélange de Çetmi, l?ophiolite de Denizgören, et le Groupe d?Ezine ont subi par la suite des déformations extensives importantes qui ont considérablement perturbé le schéma post-mise en place.

GIS and geodatabases application to global scale plate tectonics modelling

Les reconstructions palinspastiques fournissent le cadre idéal à de nombreuses études géologiques, géographiques, océanographique ou climatiques. En tant qu?historiens de la terre, les "reconstructeurs" essayent d?en déchiffrer le passé. Depuis qu?ils savent que les continents bougent, les géologues essayent de retracer leur évolution à travers les âges. Si l?idée originale de Wegener était révolutionnaire au début du siècle passé, nous savons depuis le début des années « soixante » que les continents ne "dérivent" pas sans but au milieu des océans mais sont inclus dans un sur-ensemble associant croûte « continentale » et « océanique »: les plaques tectoniques. Malheureusement, pour des raisons historiques aussi bien que techniques, cette idée ne reçoit toujours pas l'écho suffisant parmi la communauté des reconstructeurs. Néanmoins, nous sommes intimement convaincus qu?en appliquant certaines méthodes et certains principes il est possible d?échapper à l?approche "Wégenerienne" traditionnelle pour enfin tendre vers la tectonique des plaques. Le but principal du présent travail est d?exposer, avec tous les détails nécessaires, nos outils et méthodes. Partant des données paléomagnétiques et paléogéographiques classiquement utilisées pour les reconstructions, nous avons développé une nouvelle méthodologie replaçant les plaques tectoniques et leur cinématique au coeur du problème. En utilisant des assemblages continentaux (aussi appelés "assemblées clés") comme des points d?ancrage répartis sur toute la durée de notre étude (allant de l?Eocène jusqu?au Cambrien), nous développons des scénarios géodynamiques permettant de passer de l?une à l?autre en allant du passé vers le présent. Entre deux étapes, les plaques lithosphériques sont peu à peu reconstruites en additionnant/ supprimant les matériels océaniques (symbolisés par des isochrones synthétiques) aux continents. Excepté lors des collisions, les plaques sont bougées comme des entités propres et rigides. A travers les âges, les seuls éléments évoluant sont les limites de plaques. Elles sont préservées aux cours du temps et suivent une évolution géodynamique consistante tout en formant toujours un réseau interconnecté à travers l?espace. Cette approche appelée "limites de plaques dynamiques" intègre de multiples facteurs parmi lesquels la flottabilité des plaques, les taux d'accrétions aux rides, les courbes de subsidence, les données stratigraphiques et paléobiogéographiques aussi bien que les évènements tectoniques et magmatiques majeurs. Cette méthode offre ainsi un bon contrôle sur la cinématique des plaques et fournit de sévères contraintes au modèle. Cette approche "multi-source" nécessite une organisation et une gestion des données efficaces. Avant le début de cette étude, les masses de données nécessaires était devenues un obstacle difficilement surmontable. Les SIG (Systèmes d?Information Géographiques) et les géo-databases sont des outils informatiques spécialement dédiés à la gestion, au stockage et à l?analyse des données spatialement référencées et de leurs attributs. Grâce au développement dans ArcGIS de la base de données PaleoDyn nous avons pu convertir cette masse de données discontinues en informations géodynamiques précieuses et facilement accessibles pour la création des reconstructions. Dans le même temps, grâce à des outils spécialement développés, nous avons, tout à la fois, facilité le travail de reconstruction (tâches automatisées) et amélioré le modèle en développant fortement le contrôle cinématique par la création de modèles de vitesses des plaques. Sur la base des 340 terranes nouvellement définis, nous avons ainsi développé un set de 35 reconstructions auxquelles est toujours associé un modèle de vitesse. Grâce à cet ensemble de données unique, nous pouvons maintenant aborder des problématiques majeurs de la géologie moderne telles que l?étude des variations du niveau marin et des changements climatiques. Nous avons commencé par aborder un autre problème majeur (et non définitivement élucidé!) de la tectonique moderne: les mécanismes contrôlant les mouvements des plaques. Nous avons pu observer que, tout au long de l?histoire de la terre, les pôles de rotation des plaques (décrivant les mouvements des plaques à la surface de la terre) tendent à se répartir le long d'une bande allant du Pacifique Nord au Nord de l'Amérique du Sud, l'Atlantique Central, l'Afrique du Nord, l'Asie Centrale jusqu'au Japon. Fondamentalement, cette répartition signifie que les plaques ont tendance à fuir ce plan médian. En l'absence d'un biais méthodologique que nous n'aurions pas identifié, nous avons interprété ce phénomène comme reflétant l'influence séculaire de la Lune sur le mouvement des plaques. La Lune sur le mouvement des plaques. Le domaine océanique est la clé de voute de notre modèle. Nous avons attaché un intérêt tout particulier à le reconstruire avec beaucoup de détails. Dans ce modèle, la croûte océanique est préservée d?une reconstruction à l?autre. Le matériel crustal y est symbolisé sous la forme d?isochrones synthétiques dont nous connaissons les âges. Nous avons également reconstruit les marges (actives ou passives), les rides médio-océaniques et les subductions intra-océaniques. En utilisant ce set de données très détaillé, nous avons pu développer des modèles bathymétriques 3-D unique offrant une précision bien supérieure aux précédents.<br/><br/>Palinspastic reconstructions offer an ideal framework for geological, geographical, oceanographic and climatology studies. As historians of the Earth, "reconstructers" try to decipher the past. Since they know that continents are moving, geologists a trying to retrieve the continents distributions through ages. If Wegener?s view of continent motions was revolutionary at the beginning of the 20th century, we know, since the Early 1960?s that continents are not drifting without goal in the oceanic realm but are included in a larger set including, all at once, the oceanic and the continental crust: the tectonic plates. Unfortunately, mainly due to technical and historical issues, this idea seems not to receive a sufficient echo among our particularly concerned community. However, we are intimately convinced that, by applying specific methods and principles we can escape the traditional "Wegenerian" point of view to, at last, reach real plate tectonics. This is the main aim of this study to defend this point of view by exposing, with all necessary details, our methods and tools. Starting with the paleomagnetic and paleogeographic data classically used in reconstruction studies, we developed a modern methodology placing the plates and their kinematics at the centre of the issue. Using assemblies of continents (referred as "key assemblies") as anchors distributed all along the scope of our study (ranging from Eocene time to Cambrian time) we develop geodynamic scenarios leading from one to the next, from the past to the present. In between, lithospheric plates are progressively reconstructed by adding/removing oceanic material (symbolized by synthetic isochrones) to major continents. Except during collisions, plates are moved as single rigid entities. The only evolving elements are the plate boundaries which are preserved and follow a consistent geodynamical evolution through time and form an interconnected network through space. This "dynamic plate boundaries" approach integrates plate buoyancy factors, oceans spreading rates, subsidence patterns, stratigraphic and paleobiogeographic data, as well as major tectonic and magmatic events. It offers a good control on plate kinematics and provides severe constraints for the model. This multi-sources approach requires an efficient data management. Prior to this study, the critical mass of necessary data became a sorely surmountable obstacle. GIS and geodatabases are modern informatics tools of specifically devoted to store, analyze and manage data and associated attributes spatially referenced on the Earth. By developing the PaleoDyn database in ArcGIS software we converted the mass of scattered data offered by the geological records into valuable geodynamical information easily accessible for reconstructions creation. In the same time, by programming specific tools we, all at once, facilitated the reconstruction work (tasks automation) and enhanced the model (by highly increasing the kinematic control of plate motions thanks to plate velocity models). Based on the 340 terranes properly defined, we developed a revised set of 35 reconstructions associated to their own velocity models. Using this unique dataset we are now able to tackle major issues of the geology (such as the global sea-level variations and climate changes). We started by studying one of the major unsolved issues of the modern plate tectonics: the driving mechanism of plate motions. We observed that, all along the Earth?s history, plates rotation poles (describing plate motions across the Earth?s surface) tend to follow a slight linear distribution along a band going from the Northern Pacific through Northern South-America, Central Atlantic, Northern Africa, Central Asia up to Japan. Basically, it sighifies that plates tend to escape this median plan. In the absence of a non-identified methodological bias, we interpreted it as the potential secular influence ot the Moon on plate motions. The oceanic realms are the cornerstone of our model and we attached a particular interest to reconstruct them with many details. In this model, the oceanic crust is preserved from one reconstruction to the next. The crustal material is symbolised by the synthetic isochrons from which we know the ages. We also reconstruct the margins (active or passive), ridges and intra-oceanic subductions. Using this detailed oceanic dataset, we developed unique 3-D bathymetric models offering a better precision than all the previously existing ones.

Breast cancer incidence and overdiagnosis in Catalonia (Spain)

Introduction: Early detection of breast cancer (BC) with mammography may cause overdiagnosis and overtreatment, detecting tumors which would remain undiagnosed during a lifetime. The aims of this study were: first, to model invasive BC incidence trends in Catalonia (Spain) taking into account reproductive and screening data; and second, to quantify the extent of BC overdiagnosis. Methods: We modeled the incidence of invasive BC using a Poisson regression model. Explanatory variables were: age at diagnosis and cohort characteristics (completed fertility rate, percentage of women that use mammography at age 50, and year of birth). This model also was used to estimate the background incidence in the absence of screening. We used a probabilistic model to estimate the expected BC incidence if women in the population used mammography as reported in health surveys. The difference between the observed and expected cumulative incidences provided an estimate of overdiagnosis. Results: Incidence of invasive BC increased, especially in cohorts born from 1940 to 1955. The biggest increase was observed in these cohorts between the ages of 50 to 65 years, where the final BC incidence rates more than doubled the initial ones. Dissemination of mammography was significantly associated with BC incidence and overdiagnosis. Our estimates of overdiagnosis ranged from 0.4% to 46.6%, for women born around 1935 and 1950, respectively. Conclusions: Our results support the existence of overdiagnosis in Catalonia attributed to mammography usage, and the limited malignant potential of some tumors may play an important role. Women should be better informed about this risk. Research should be oriented towards personalized screening and risk assessment tools.

Competing risks to breast cancer mortality in Catalonia

Background: Breast cancer mortality has experienced important changes over the last century. Breast cancer occurs in the presence of other competing risks which can influence breast cancer incidence and mortality trends. The aim of the present work is: 1) to assess the impact of breast cancer deaths among mortality from all causes in Catalonia (Spain), by age and birth cohort and 2) to estimate the risk of death from other causes than breast cancer, one of the inputs needed to model breast cancer mortality reduction due to screening or therapeutic interventions. Methods: The multi-decrement life table methodology was used. First, all-cause mortality probabilities were obtained by age and cohort. Then mortality probability for breast cancer was subtracted from the all-cause mortality probabilities to obtain cohort life tables for causes other than breast cancer. These life tables, on one hand, provide an estimate of the risk of dying from competing risks, and on the other hand, permit to assess the impact of breast cancer deaths on all-cause mortality using the ratio of the probability of death for causes other than breast cancer by the all-cause probability of death. Results: There was an increasing impact of breast cancer on mortality in the first part of the 20th century, with a peak for cohorts born in 1945–54 in the 40–49 age groups (for which approximately 24% of mortality was due to breast cancer). Even though for cohorts born after 1955 there was only information for women under 50, it is also important to note that the impact of breast cancer on all-cause mortality decreased for those cohorts. Conclusion: We have quantified the effect of removing breast cancer mortality in different age groups and birth cohorts. Our results are consistent with US findings. We also have obtained an estimate of the risk of dying from competing-causes mortality, which will be used in the assessment of the effect of mammography screening on breast cancer mortality in Catalonia.

Dissemination of periodic mammography and patterns of use, by birth cohort, in Catalonia (Spain)

Background: In Catalonia (Spain) breast cancer mortality has declined since the beginning of the 1990s. The dissemination of early detection by mammography and the introduction of adjuvant treatments are among the possible causes of this decrease, and both were almost coincident in time. Thus, understanding how these procedures were incorporated into use in the general population and in women diagnosed with breast cancer is very important for assessing their contribution to the reduction in breast cancer mortality. In this work we have modeled the dissemination of periodic mammography and described repeat mammography behavior in Catalonia from 1975 to 2006. Methods: Cross-sectional data from three Catalan Health Surveys for the calendar years 1994, 2002 and 2006 was used. The dissemination of mammography by birth cohort was modeled using a mixed effects model and repeat mammography behavior was described by age and survey year. Results: For women born from 1938 to 1952, mammography clearly had a period effect, meaning that they started to have periodic mammograms at the same calendar years but at different ages. The age at which approximately 50% of the women were receiving periodic mammograms went from 57.8 years of age for women born in 1938–1942 to 37.3 years of age for women born in 1963–1967. Women in all age groups experienced an increase in periodic mammography use over time, although women in the 50–69 age group have experienced the highest increase. Currently, the target population of the Catalan Breast Cancer Screening Program, 50–69 years of age, is the group that self-reports the highest utilization of periodic mammograms, followed by the 40–49 age group. A higher proportion of women of all age groups have annual mammograms rather than biennial or irregular ones. Conclusion: Mammography in Catalonia became more widely implemented during the 1990s. We estimated when cohorts initiated periodic mammograms and how frequently women are receiving them. These two pieces of information will be entered into a cost-effectiveness model of early detection in Catalonia.