Analytical and Monte Carlo approaches to evaluate probability distributions of interruption duration

Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties-and, in some cases, rewards-that introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the maximum continuous interruption duration (MCID) per customer.This parameter is responsible for the majority of penalties in many electric distribution utilities. This paper describes analytical and Monte Carlo simulation approaches to evaluate probability distributions of interruption duration indices. More emphasis will be given to the development of an analytical method to assess the probability distribution associated with the parameter MCID and the correspond ng penalties. Case studies on a simple distribution network and on a real Brazilian distribution system are presented and discussed.

Modelling frequency distributions of 5 minute-averaged solar radiation indexes using Beta probability functions

Five minute-averaged values of sky clearness, direct and diffuse indices, were used to model the frequency distributions of these variables in terms of optical air mass. From more than four years of solar radiation observations it was found that variations in the frequency distributions of the three indices of optical air mass for Botucatu, Brazil, are similar to those in other places, as published in the literature. The proposed models were obtained by linear combination of normalized Beta probability functions, using the observed distributions derived from three years of data. The versatility of these functions allows modelling of all three irradiance indexes to similar levels of accuracy. A comparison with the observed distributions obtained from one year of observations indicate that the models are able to reproduce the observed frequency distributions of all three indices at the 95% confidence level.

Discrete coherent states and probability distributions in finite-dimensional spaces

Operator bases are discussed in connection with the construction of phase space representatives of operators in finite-dimensional spaces, and their properties are presented. It is also shown how these operator bases allow for the construction of a finite harmonic oscillator-like coherent state. Creation and annihilation operators for the Fock finite-dimensional space are discussed and their expressions in terms of the operator bases are explicitly written. The relevant finite-dimensional probability distributions are obtained and their limiting behavior for an infinite-dimensional space are calculated which agree with the well known results. (C) 1996 Academic Press, Inc.

Probability distribution models for daily rainfall data for an interior station of Brazil

Two stochastic models have been fitted to daily rainfall data for an interior station of Brazil. Of these two models, the results show a better fit to describe the data, by truncated negative probability model in comparison with Markov chain probability model. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is applied for significance for these models. © 1983 Springer-Verlag.

Acute and sustained effects of early administration of inhaled nitric oxide to children with acute respiratory distress syndrome

OBJECTIVE: To determine the acute and sustained effects of early inhaled nitric oxide on some oxygenation indexes and ventilator settings and to compare inhaled nitric oxide administration and conventional therapy on mortality rate, length of stay in intensive care, and duration of mechanical ventilation in children with acute respiratory distress syndrome. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: Pediatric intensive care unit at a university-affiliated hospital. PATIENTS: Children with acute respiratory distress syndrome, aged between 1 month and 12 yrs. INTERVENTIONS: Two groups were studied: an inhaled nitric oxide group (iNOG, n = 18) composed of patients prospectively enrolled from November 2000 to November 2002, and a conventional therapy group (CTG, n = 21) consisting of historical control patients admitted from August 1998 to August 2000. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Therapy with inhaled nitric oxide was introduced as early as 1.5 hrs after acute respiratory distress syndrome diagnosis with acute improvements in Pao(2)/Fio(2) ratio (83.7%) and oxygenation index (46.7%). Study groups were of similar ages, gender, primary diagnoses, pediatric risk of mortality score, and mean airway pressure. Pao(2)/Fio(2) ratio was lower (CTG, 116.9 +/- 34.5; iNOG, 62.5 +/- 12.8, p <.0001) and oxygenation index higher (CTG, 15.2 [range, 7.2-32.2]; iNOG, 24.3 [range, 16.3-70.4], p <.0001) in the iNOG. Prolonged treatment was associated with improved oxygenation, so that Fio(2) and peak inspiratory pressure could be quickly and significantly reduced. Mortality rate for inhaled nitric oxide-patients was lower (CTG, ten of 21, 47.6%; iNOG, three of 18, 16.6%, p <.001). There was no difference in intensive care stay (CTG, 10 days [range, 2-49]; iNOG, 12 [range, 6-26], p >.05) or duration of mechanical ventilation (TCG, 9 days [range, 2-47]; iNOG, 10 [range, 4-25], p >.05). CONCLUSIONS: Early treatment with inhaled nitric oxide causes acute and sustained improvement in oxygenation, with earlier reduction of ventilator settings, which might contribute to reduce the mortality rate in children with acute respiratory distress syndrome. Length of stay in intensive care and duration of mechanical ventilation are not changed. Prospective trials of inhaled nitric oxide early in the setting of acute lung injury in children are needed.

Analysis of culling probability in dairy buffalo using survival models

In order to contribute to the genetic breeding programs of buffaloes, this study aimed to determine the influence of environmental effects on the stayability (ST) of dairy female Murrah buffalo in the herd. Data from 1016 buffaloes were used. ST was defined as the ability of the female to remain in the herd for 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 years after the first calving. Environmental effects were studied by survival analysis, adjusted to the fixed effects of farm, year and season of birth, class of first-lactation milk yield and age at first calving. The data were analyzed using the LIFEREG procedure of the SAS program that fits parametric models to failure time data (culling or ST = 0), and estimates parameters by maximum likelihood estimation. Breeding farm, year of birth and first-lactation milk yield significantly influenced (P < 0.0001) the ST to the specific ages (1 to 6 years after the first calving). Buffaloes that were older at first calving presented higher probabilities of being culled 1 year after the first calving, without any effect on culling at older ages. Buffaloes with a higher milk yield at first calving presented a lower culling probability and remained for a longer period of time in the herd. The effects of breeding farm, year of birth and first-lactation milk yield should be included in models used for the analysis of ST in buffaloes. Copyright © The Animal Consortium 2010.

México: impacto de la educación en la pobreza rural

Incluye Bibliografía

Brazilian catfish parasitized by Epistylis sp. (Ciliophora, Epistylididae), with description of parasite intensity score

The determination of mean intensity of parasitism for colony-forming sessile protozoan such as Epistylis has been a great problem in parasitological studies. Some alternatives have been proposed by researchers for laboratory and field conditions. This study describes the criteria to establish the parasitic intensity score for epistylidid infestation in fish. Parasite distribution and the host-parasite relationship in four species of Brazilian cultured catfish and their hybrids are discussed. The highest prevalence rates were found in the hybrid jundiara, Leiarius marmoratus male × Pseudoplatystoma reticulatum female (96.4 %), followed by jurupoca, Hemisorubim platyrhynchos (60 %), and the hybrid surubim, Pseudoplatystoma corruscans male × P. reticulatum female (52.7 %). Positive correlation between parasitic intensity score and the fish size, weight, and relative condition factor were also observed. These findings indicate that Epistylis infestation in Brazilian catfish is an emerging disease in cultured fish. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.

The value of intraocular pressure asymmetry in diagnosing glaucoma

PURPOSE

Glaucoma secundário em cães e gatos

Glaucoma is a syndrome that affects animals of different species and in different moments of his life, having variables causes in function of this presentation. It is an ophthalmic emergency that may develop irreversible vision damage as well as the patient's aesthetic presentation. Increased intraocular pressure, presence of engorged episcleral vessels, conjunctival hyperemia, pain, anterior uveitis, lens luxation and buftalmia are commonly clinical signs presented by dogs while in cats, signs are less expressive, noting mydriasis, mild ciliary injection and progressive buftalmia. For diagnosis are carried out three basic procedures: tonometry, gonioscopy and ophthalmoscopy. The treatment can establish with medical therapy with or without surgical intervention, however, at some point it will be necessary to perform enucleation or evisceration of the eye bulb.

Características principais de pacientes com PSA menor ou igual a 4,0 ng/ml, submetidos à biópsia de próstata guiada pelo ultrassom transretal

Pós-graduação em Bases Gerais da Cirurgia - FMB

Composição e abundância dos Copepoda (crustacea) planctônicos da costa do Amapá - Op. Norte IV (REVIZEE/SCORE NO)

A caracterização da composição de Copepoda planctônicos, na costa do Amapá foi estudada, a partir de amostras coletadas através do programa REVIZEE, durante a Operação Norte IV, em 2001, realizada pelo navio Oceanográfico “Antares”, pertencente à Marinha do Brasil (H-40). A área estudada está inserida na ZEE Norte brasileiro no trecho entre o Cabo Orange e o Delta do rio Parnaíba, enquadrando-se nas seguintes coordenadas geográficas, LAT. 02º 25,92’N e LONG. 049º11,98’W (est. 102); LAT. 03º36,14’N e LONG. 048º24,71’W (est. 107); LAT. 05º32,39’N e LONG. 050º13,11’W (est.130); LAT. 04º23,64’N e LONG. 051º02,58’W (est.134). As coletas foram realizadas através de arrastos verticais com rede de zooplâncton, com malha de 200 μm, dotadas de fluxômetro. Após as coletas, as amostras foram fixadas com formol neutro a 4 %. Também foram coletados os fatores hidrológicos, onde a temperatura da água variou de 23, 72 ºC a 28,87 ºC na plataforma continental, enquanto na região oceânica variou de 12,69 ºC a 28,87 ºC. A salinidade, na plataforma continental, variou 24,00 PSU a 36,42 PSU, e na região oceânica a variação foi de 33,98 PSU a 36,62 PSU. A costa do Amapá foi considerado um ambiente estável, devido as poucas variações de salinidade e temperatura. Foram identificadas 84 espécies de Copepoda, das quais, destacaram-se como as mais freqüentes, Clausocalanus furcatus, Oithona setigera, Paracalanus parvus, Macrosetella gracilis, Oncaea media, Corycaeus speciosus, Farranula gracilis, Subeucalanus pileatus e Paracalanus sp. As altas densidades e dominância ocorreram para as espécies, Nannocalanus minor, Corycaeus (Corycaeus) speciosus, Clausocalanus furcalocalanus pavo, Paracalanus parvus, Parvocalanus crassirostris, Oithona setigera, Macrosetella gracilis, Farranula gracilis, Subcalanus pileatus, Euterpina acutifrons e Oncaea media, consideradas como indicadoras de oligotrofia na área estudada. Dentre estas, a espécie Subeucalanus pileatus foi a que mais se destacou, a qual ocorreu na maioria das estações. A diversidade foi considerada alta na maioria das estações, exceto na estação 127 (considerada baixa), por estar sendo influenciada pela pluma amazônica. Enquanto, a densidade apresentou resultados menores que 100 org.m-³ indicando a região oceânica como um ambiente oligotrófico, e apesar disso, a comunidade de Copepoda encontra-se em grande diversidade na área.