Integrating drivers influencing the detection of plant pests carried in the international cut flower trade

This paper analyses the cut flower market as an example of an invasion pathway along which species of non-indigenous plant pests can travel to reach new areas. The paper examines the probability of pest detection by assessing information on pest detection and detection effort associated with the import of cut flowers. We test the link between the probability of plant pest arrivals as a precursor to potential invasion, and volume of traded flowers using count data regression models. The analysis is applied to the UK import of specific genera of cut flowers form Kenya between 1996 and 2004. There is a link between pest detection and the Genus of cut flower imported. Hence, pest detection efforts should focus on identifying and targeting those imported plants with a high risk of carrying pest species. For most of the plants studied efforts allocated to inspection have a significant influence on the probabilty of pest detction. However, by better targetting inspection efforts, it is shown that plant inspection effort could be reduced without increasing the risk of pest entry. Similarly, for most of the plants analysed, an increase in volume traded will not necessarily lead to an increase in the number of pests entering the UK. For some species, such as conclude that analysis at the rank of plant Genus is important both to understand the effectiveness of plant pest detection efforts and consequently to manage the risk of introduction of non-indigenous species.

Will rising household incomes solve China's micronutrient deficiency problems?

Rapid economic growth in China has resulted in substantially improved household incomes. Diets have also changed, with a movement away from traditional foods and towards animal products and processed foods. Yet micronutrient deficiencies, particularly for calcium and vitamin A, are still widespread in China. In this research we model the determinants of the intakes of these micronutrients using household panel data, asking particularly whether continuing income increases are likely to cause the deficiencies to be overcome. Nonparametric kernel regressions and random effects panel regression models are employed. The results show a statistically significant but relatively small positive income effect on both nutrient intakes. The local availability of milk is seen to have a strong positive effect on intakes of both micronutrients. Thus, rather than relying on increasing incomes to overcome deficiencies, supplementary government policies, such as school milk programmes, may be warranted.

Seroprevalence estimation and risk factors for A. marginale on smallholder dairy farms in Tanzania

A cross-sectional serological survey of A. marginale was conducted on 200 randomly selected smallholder farms in each of the Tanga and Iringa Regions of Tanzania between January and April 1999. Sera, from dairy cattle of all ages, sexes and breeds were tested for antibodies against A. marginale using an indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Antibodies to A. marginale were present in cattle throughout the study areas and the overall prevalence was 20% for Tanga and 37% for Iringa. The forces of infection based on the age seroprevalence profile were estimated at 8 for Tanga and 15 for Iringa per 100 cattle years-risk, respectively. In both regions, seroprevalence increased with age (β = 0.01 and 0.017 per year of age, p < 0.005, in Tanga and Iringa, respectively). Older animals in Iringa were significantly and negatively associated with decreased seropositivity (β = −0.002, p = 0.0029). Further results of logistic regression models reveal that geographic location of animals in Tanga was associated with seropositivity (odds ratio (OR) = 2.94, p = 0.005, for Tanga Rural and OR = 2.38, p = 0.066, for Muheza). Animals acquired as a gift in Iringa had higher odds for seropositivity than brought-in cattle (OR = 2.44, p = 0.005). Our study has identified and quantified some key risk factors that can guide planners devising disease control strategies.

Seroprevalence estimation and risk factors for A-marginale on smallholder dairy farms in Tanzania

A cross-sectional serological survey of A. marginale was conducted on 200 randomly selected smallholder farms in each of the Tanga and Iringa Regions of Tanzania between January and April 1999. Sera, from dairy cattle of all ages, sexes and breeds were tested for antibodies against A. marginale using an indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Antibodies to A. marginale were present in cattle throughout the study areas and the overall prevalence was 20% for Tanga and 37% for Iringa. The forces of infection based on the age seroprevalence profile were estimated at 8 for Tanga and 15 for Iringa per 100 cattle years-risk, respectively. In both regions, seroprevalence increased with age (beta = 0.01 and 0.017 per year of age, p < 0.005, in Tanga and Iringa, respectively). Older animals in Iringa were significantly and negatively associated with decreased seropositivity (beta = -0.002, p = 0.0029). Further results of logistic regression models reveal that geographic location of animals in Tanga was associated with seropositivity (odds ratio (OR) = 2.94, p = 0.005, for Tanga Rural and OR = 2.38, p = 0.066, for Muheza). Animals acquired as a gift in Iringa had higher odds for seropositivity than brought-in cattle (OR = 2.44, p = 0.005). Our study has identified and quantified some key risk factors that can guide planners devising disease control strategies.

Bayesian decision procedures for dose-escalation based on evidence of undesirable events and therapeutic benefit.

In this paper, Bayesian decision procedures are developed for dose-escalation studies based on bivariate observations of undesirable events and signs of therapeutic benefit. The methods generalize earlier approaches taking into account only the undesirable outcomes. Logistic regression models are used to model the two responses, which are both assumed to take a binary form. A prior distribution for the unknown model parameters is suggested and an optional safety constraint can be included. Gain functions to be maximized are formulated in terms of accurate estimation of the limits of a therapeutic window or optimal treatment of the next cohort of subjects, although the approach could be applied to achieve any of a wide variety of objectives. The designs introduced are illustrated through simulation and retrospective implementation to a completed dose-escalation study. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Modelling habitat selection and distribution of the critically endangered Jerdon's courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus in scrub jungle: an application of a new tracking method

1. Jerdon's courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus is a nocturnally active cursorial bird that is only known to occur in a small area of scrub jungle in Andhra Pradesh, India, and is listed as critically endangered by the IUCN. Information on its habitat requirements is needed urgently to underpin conservation measures. We quantified the habitat features that correlated with the use of different areas of scrub jungle by Jerdon's coursers, and developed a model to map potentially suitable habitat over large areas from satellite imagery and facilitate the design of surveys of Jerdon's courser distribution. 2. We used 11 arrays of 5-m long tracking strips consisting of smoothed fine soil to detect the footprints of Jerdon's coursers, and measured tracking rates (tracking events per strip night). We counted the number of bushes and trees, and described other attributes of vegetation and substrate in a 10-m square plot centred on each strip. We obtained reflectance data from Landsat 7 satellite imagery for the pixel within which each strip lay. 3. We used logistic regression models to describe the relationship between tracking rate by Jerdon's coursers and characteristics of the habitat around the strips, using ground-based survey data and satellite imagery. 4. Jerdon's coursers were most likely to occur where the density of large (>2 m tall) bushes was in the range 300-700 ha(-1) and where the density of smaller bushes was less than 1000 ha(-1). This habitat was detectable using satellite imagery. 5. Synthesis and applications. The occurrence of Jerdon's courser is strongly correlated with the density of bushes and trees, and is in turn affected by grazing with domestic livestock, woodcutting and mechanical clearance of bushes to create pasture, orchards and farmland. It is likely that there is an optimal level of grazing and woodcutting that would maintain or create suitable conditions for the species. Knowledge of the species' distribution is incomplete and there is considerable pressure from human use of apparently suitable habitats. Hence, distribution mapping is a high conservation priority. A two-step procedure is proposed, involving the use of ground surveys of bush density to calibrate satellite image-based mapping of potential habitat. These maps could then be used to select priority areas for Jerdon's courser surveys. The use of tracking strips to study habitat selection and distribution has potential in studies of other scarce and secretive species.

The impact of multiskilling on UK construction manpower

The overall significance of the construction and building services sector internationally cannot be overemphasised. In the UK, the industry currently accounts for 10% gross domestic product (GDP) and employs 2 million people, which is more than 1 in 14 of the total workforce. However, regardless of its output (approximately £65 billion annually) there has been a steady decline in the number of trade entrants into the construction and building services sector. Consequently, the available ‘pool of labour’ is inadequately resourced; productivity is low; the existing labour force is overstressed; there is an increase in site deaths; and a long-term labour shortage is envisaged. Today, the evidence seems to suggest that multiskilling is a tentative redress for ameliorating the skills crisis in the construction and building sectors. A 43-year time-series of data on 23 manpower attributes was evaluated as part of this investigation. The developed linear regression models show that the concept of multiskilling obeys the ‘law of diminishing returns'. That is, a weak relation was found between construction output and a three or more combination of manpower attributes. An optimisation model is prescribed for traditional trades.

Physical interpretation of the correlation between multi-angle spectral data and canopy height

Recent empirical studies have shown that multi-angle spectral data can be useful for predicting canopy height, but the physical reason for this correlation was not understood. We follow the concept of canopy spectral invariants, specifically escape probability, to gain insight into the observed correlation. Airborne Multi-Angle Imaging Spectrometer (AirMISR) and airborne Laser Vegetation Imaging Sensor (LVIS) data acquired during a NASA Terrestrial Ecology Program aircraft campaign underlie our analysis. Two multivariate linear regression models were developed to estimate LVIS height measures from 28 AirMISR multi-angle spectral reflectances and from the spectrally invariant escape probability at 7 AirMISR view angles. Both models achieved nearly the same accuracy, suggesting that canopy spectral invariant theory can explain the observed correlation. We hypothesize that the escape probability is sensitive to the aspect ratio (crown diameter to crown height). The multi-angle spectral data alone therefore may not provide enough information to retrieve canopy height globally.

Flight to quality? An investigation of the attributes of sold properties in hot and cold markets

This paper uses sales transaction data in order to examine whether flight from risk phenomena took place in the US office property investment market during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. The effect of the crisis on the pricing of property quality attributes, mainly summarized by the class category of each building, is investigated. In addition, the paper examines how turnover levels were affected by the market downturn and whether there were significant variations between different real estate quality types. The results of the hedonic regression models suggest that the price spread between Class, A, B and C grew significantly during the downturn. We also find that property attributes such as size, height and age are priced significantly different in ‘hot’ and ‘cold’ markets.

Dielectric properties of process cheese from 0.3 to 3 Ghz

Dielectric properties of 16 process cheeses were determined over the frequency range 0.3-3 GHz. The effect of temperature on the dielectric properties of process cheeses were investigated at temperature intervals of 10 degrees C between 5 and 85 degrees C. Results showed that the dielectric constant decreased gradually as frequency increased, for all cheeses. The dielectric loss factor (epsilon") decreased from above 125 to below 12 as frequency increased. epsilon' was highest at 5 degrees C and generally decreased up to a temperature between 55 and 75 degrees C. epsilon" generally increased with increasing temperature for high and medium moisture/fat ratio cheeses. epsilon" decreased with temperature between 5 and 55 degrees C and then increased, for low moisture/fat ratio cheese. Partial least square regression models indicated that epsilon' and epsilon" could be used as a quality control screening application to measure moisture content and inorganic salt content of process cheese, respectively. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved..

The sky is the limit? The determinants and constraints of European airports' commercial revenues

This study investigates the determinants of commercial and retail airport revenues as well as revenues from real estate operations. Cross-sectional OLS, 2SLS and robust regression models of European airports identify a number of significant drivers of airport revenues. Aviation revenues per passenger are mainly determined by the national income per capita in which the airport is located, the percentage of leisure travelers and the size of the airport proxied by total aviation revenues. Main drivers of commercial revenues per passenger include the total number of passengers passing through the airport, the ratio of commercial to total revenues, the national income, the share of domestic and leisure travelers and the total number of flights. These results are in line with previous findings of a negative influence of business travelers on commercial revenues per passenger. We also find that a high amount of retail space per passenger is generally associated with lower commercial revenues per square meter confirming decreasing marginal revenue effects. Real estate revenues per passenger are positively associated with national income per capita at airport location, share of intra-EU passengers and percent delayed flights. Overall, aviation and non-aviation revenues appear to be strongly interlinked, underlining the potential for a comprehensive airport management strategy above and beyond mere cost minimization of the aviation sector.

Is fatty acid intake a predictor of arterial stiffness and blood pressure in men? Evidence from the Caerphilly Prospective Study

Background and aims: Arterial stiffness is an independent predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and all-cause mortality and may be differentially affected by dietary fatty acid (FA) intake. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between FA consumption and arterial stiffness and blood pressure in a community-based population. Methods and results: The Caerphilly Prospective Study recruited 2398 men, aged 45-59 years, who were followed up at 5-year intervals for a mean of 17.8-years (n 787). A semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire estimated intakes of total, saturated, mono- and poly-unsaturated fatty acids (SFA, MUFA, PUFA). Multiple regression models investigated associations between intakes of FA at baseline with aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV), augmentation index (AIx), systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP, DBP) and pulse pressure after a 17.8-year follow-up - as well as cross-sectional relationships with metabolic markers. After adjustment, higher SFA consumption at baseline was associated with higher SBP (P = 0.043) and DBP (P = 0.002) and after a 17.8-year follow-up was associated with a 0.51 m/s higher aPWV (P = 0.006). After adjustment, higher PUFA consumption at baseline was associated with lower SBP (P = 0.022) and DBP (P = 0.036) and after a 17.8-year follow-up was associated with a 0.63 m/s lower aPWV (P = 0.007). Conclusion: This study suggests that consumption of SFA and PUFA have opposing effects on arterial stiffness and blood pressure. Importantly, this study suggests that consumption of FA is an important risk factor for arterial stiffness and CVD.

Impact of long-range correlations on trend detection in total ozone

Total ozone trends are typically studied using linear regression models that assume a first-order autoregression of the residuals [so-called AR(1) models]. We consider total ozone time series over 60°S–60°N from 1979 to 2005 and show that most latitude bands exhibit long-range correlated (LRC) behavior, meaning that ozone autocorrelation functions decay by a power law rather than exponentially as in AR(1). At such latitudes the uncertainties of total ozone trends are greater than those obtained from AR(1) models and the expected time required to detect ozone recovery correspondingly longer. We find no evidence of LRC behavior in southern middle-and high-subpolar latitudes (45°–60°S), where the long-term ozone decline attributable to anthropogenic chlorine is the greatest. We thus confirm an earlier prediction based on an AR(1) analysis that this region (especially the highest latitudes, and especially the South Atlantic) is the optimal location for the detection of ozone recovery, with a statistically significant ozone increase attributable to chlorine likely to be detectable by the end of the next decade. In northern middle and high latitudes, on the other hand, there is clear evidence of LRC behavior. This increases the uncertainties on the long-term trend attributable to anthropogenic chlorine by about a factor of 1.5 and lengthens the expected time to detect ozone recovery by a similar amount (from ∼2030 to ∼2045). If the long-term changes in ozone are instead fit by a piecewise-linear trend rather than by stratospheric chlorine loading, then the strong decrease of northern middle- and high-latitude ozone during the first half of the 1990s and its subsequent increase in the second half of the 1990s projects more strongly on the trend and makes a smaller contribution to the noise. This both increases the trend and weakens the LRC behavior at these latitudes, to the extent that ozone recovery (according to this model, and in the sense of a statistically significant ozone increase) is already on the verge of being detected. The implications of this rather controversial interpretation are discussed.

A combined statistical and dynamical approach for downscaling large-scale footprints of European windstorms

The occurrence of mid-latitude windstorms is related to strong socio-economic effects. For detailed and reliable regional impact studies, large datasets of high-resolution wind fields are required. In this study, a statistical downscaling approach in combination with dynamical downscaling is introduced to derive storm related gust speeds on a high-resolution grid over Europe. Multiple linear regression models are trained using reanalysis data and wind gusts from regional climate model simulations for a sample of 100 top ranking windstorm events. The method is computationally inexpensive and reproduces individual windstorm footprints adequately. Compared to observations, the results for Germany are at least as good as pure dynamical downscaling. This new tool can be easily applied to large ensembles of general circulation model simulations and thus contribute to a better understanding of the regional impact of windstorms based on decadal and climate change projections.

Sociodemographic determinants of diet quality of the EU elderly: a comparative analysis in four countries

Objective: To investigate the sociodemographic determinants of diet quality of the elderly in four EU countries. Design: Cross-sectional study. For each country, a regression was performed of a multidimensional index of dietary quality v. sociodemographic variables. Setting In Finland, Finnish Household Budget Survey (1998 and 2006); in Sweden, SNAC-K (2001–2004); in the UK, Expenditure & Food Survey (2006–07); in Italy, Multi-purpose Survey of Daily Life (2009). Subjects: One- and two-person households of over-50s (Finland, n 2994; UK, n 4749); over-50 s living alone or in two-person households (Italy, n 7564); over-60 s (Sweden, n 2023). Results: Diet quality among the EU elderly is both low on average and heterogeneous across individuals. The regression models explained a small but significant part of the observed heterogeneity in diet quality. Resource availability was associated with diet quality either negatively (Finland and UK) or in a non-linear or non-statistically significant manner (Italy and Sweden), as was the preference for food parameter. Education, not living alone and female gender were characteristics positively associated with diet quality with consistency across the four countries, unlike socio-professional status, age and seasonality. Regional differences within countries persisted even after controlling for the other sociodemographic variables. Conclusions: Poor dietary choices among the EU elderly were not caused by insufficient resources and informational measures could be successful in promoting healthy eating for healthy ageing. On the other hand, food habits appeared largely set in the latter part of life, with age and retirement having little influence on the healthiness of dietary choices.