920 resultados para Forward premium
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Cerebral responses to alternating periods of a control task and a selective letter generation paradigm were investigated with functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI). Subjects selectively generated letters from four designated sets of six letters from the English language alphabet, with the instruction that they were not to produce letters in alphabetical order either forward or backward, repeat or alternate letters. Performance during this condition was compared with that of a control condition in which subjects recited the same letters in alphabetical order. Analyses revealed significant and extensive foci of activation in a number of cerebral regions including mid-dorsolateral frontal cortex, inferior frontal gyrus, precuneus, supramarginal gyrus, and cerebellum during the selective letter generation condition. These findings are discussed with respect to recent positron emission tomography (PET) and fMRI studies of verbal working memory and encoding/retrieval in episodic memory.
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Hysterectomy fractions by age group for particular periods are of interest for: estimating proper population denominators for calculation of disease and procedure rates affecting the cervix and uterus; estimating the target population for Pap test programs, and response rates; and as a way of displaying the cumulative consequences of hysterectomies in a population. Hysterectomy fractions for populations can be determined by direct inquiry via a representative sample survey, or, as in this study, from prior hysterectomy rates of the cohorts of women which compose each age bracket. Hysterectomy data 1979-93 were obtained from the hospital In-patients Statistics Collection (ISC) which covers both public and private hospitals in NSW. Annual population denominators of women were obtained from Census data. Data were modelled by Poisson regression, using five.-year age group (15-greater than or equal to 85 years), annual period, and five-year birth cohort (APC model). Forward- and back-projection of the period effects were undertaken. The resultant NSW hysterectomy fractions by age and period are consistent with fractions obtained from modelled hysterectomy rates for Western Australia (1980-84), and fractions from national representative sample surveys (1989/90 and 1995) for younger women, but not for women aged greater than or equal to 70 years in 1995, which revealed higher hysterectomy fractions than modelled hysterectomy data would suggest. Hysterectomy fractions for NSW women by five-year age group for quinquennia centred on 1971 to 2006 are provided.
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Rapid and sensitive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) methods ape described for determination of the two 16 S rDNA subgroups of Ralstonia solanacearum, the causal agent of bacterial wilt. A third subgroup consisting of Indonesian R. solanacearum isolates belonging to Division II, the blood disease bacterium and Pseudomonas syzygii can also be identified. Primers were designed to sequences within R, solanacearum 16 S rDNA (equivalent to Escherichia coli 16 S rDNA positions 74-97, 455-475, 1454-1474), and the internal transcribed spacer region between the 16 S and 23 S rDNA genes. Different combinations of forward and reverse primers allowed selective PCR amplification of (a) R. solanacearum Division I (biovars 3, 4 and 5), (b) Division TI (biovars 1, N2, and 2) including the blood disease bacterium and P. syzygii, or (c) amplification of Division II only except for five biovar 1, 2 or N2 isolates of R. solanacearum from Indonesia, P. syzygii and the BDB. A total of 104 R. solanacearum, 14 blood disease bacterium and 10 P. syzygii isolates were tested. Simultaneous detection of species and subdivision was achieved by designing a multiplex PCR test in which a 288-base pair (bp) band is produced by all R. solanacearum isolates, and an additional 409-bp band in Division I strains.
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Modulational instability in optical Bragg gratings with a quadratic nonlinearity is studied. The electric field in such structures consists of forward and backward propagating components at the fundamental frequency and its second harmonic. Analytic continuous wave (CW) solutions are obtained, and the intricate complexity of their stability, due to the large number of equations and number of free parameters, is revealed. The stability boundaries are rich in structures and often cannot be described by a simple relationship. In most cases, the CW solutions are unstable. However, stable regions are found in the nonlinear Schrodinger equation limit, and also when the grating strength for the second harmonic is stronger than that of the first harmonic. Stable CW solutions usually require a low intensity. The analysis is confirmed by directly simulating the governing equations. The stable regions found have possible applications in second-harmonic generation and dark solitons, while the unstable regions maybe useful in the generation of ultrafast pulse trains at relatively low intensities. [S1063-651X(99)03005-6].
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Giles and Goss (1980) have suggested that, if a futures market provides a forward pricing function, then it is an efficient market. In this article a simple test for whether the Australian Wool Futures market is efficient is proposed. The test is based on applying cointegration techniques to test the Law of One Price over a three, six, nine, and twelve month spread of futures prices. We found that the futures market is efficient for up to a six-month spread, but no further into the future. Because futures market prices can be used to predict spot prices up to six months in advance, woolgrowers can use the futures price to assess when they market their clip, but not for longer-term production planning decisions. (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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A model of Australian wheat grower supply response was specified under the constraints of price and yield uncertainty, risk aversion, partial adjustment, and quadratic costs. The model was solved to obtain area planted. The results of estimation indicate that risk arising from prices and climate have had a significant influence on producer decision making. The coefficient of relative risk aversion and short-run and long-run elasticities of supply with respect to price were calculated. Wheat growers' risk premium, expected at the start of the season for exposed price and yield risk, was 2.8 percent of revenue or 10.4 percent of profit as measured by producer surplus. (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Vaccines to prevent PV infection, utilising PV L1 virus like particles (VLPs) to induce neutralising antibody, are in clinical trial and show all the characteristics likely to be associated with success. Results warrant global planning for the deployment of VLP vaccines within a decade, as part of a program to prevent cervical cancer. Vaccines designed to treat existing PV infection by inducing therapeutic cellular immunity targeted to PV proteins are at a much earlier stage of development. The wide choice of potential and proposed antigens, routes and mechanisms of delivery, and possible treatment regimens suggest that, to move the field forward, surrogate markers allowing comparison of the relative efficacy of different vaccine approaches are required. These should be based on reduction in load of virus infection, and need to be validated in animal models or in man. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.
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We model and calibrate the arguments in favor and against short-term and long-term debt. These arguments broadly include: maturity premium, sustainability, and service smoothing. We use a dynamic-equilibrium model with tax distortions and government outlays uncertainty, and model maturity as the fraction of debt that needs to be rolled over every period. In the model, the benefits of defaulting are tempered by higher future interest rates. We then calibrate our artificial economy and solve for the optimal debt maturity for Brazil as an example of a developing country and the US as an example of a mature economy. We obtain that the calibrated costs from defaulting on long-term debt more than offset costs associated with short-term debt. Therefore, short-term debt implies higher welfare levels.
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This article makes a connection between Lucas` (1978) asset pricing model and the macroeconomic dynamics for some selected countries. Both the relative risk aversion and the impatience for postponing consumption by synthesizing the investor behaviour can help to understand some key macroeconomic issues across countries, such as the savings decision and the real interest rate. I find that the government consumption makes worse the so-called `equity premium-interest rate puzzle`. The first root of the quadratic function for explaining the real interest rate can produce this puzzle, but not the second root. Thus, Mehra and Prescott (1985) identified only one possible solution.
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This paper analyses the applicability of the main enterprise internationalization theories to the entry of the multinational corporations into Brazil, throughout five phases of Brazilian economy, from 1850 to nowadays. It seeks to verify the explanation power of each theory over the FDI flows in Brazil. It concludes that there is a contingency relation between the theories and the phases of the economy, and. it shows such relationship in a table. In addition, it concludes that the most powerful theory along the researched period was Dunning`s eclectic paradigm, mainly due to the Localization considerations. Theoretical propositions are put forward as a contribution to future research.
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We extended the standard neoclassical model of investment for the case of an open economy. Our model shows that risk premium not only creates a wedge between the marginal product of capital across countries but also reduces an economy`s savings rate. A riskier market thus presents a lower income per capita, ceteris paribus. Our empirical analysis, from 1950 to 2003, lends support to the conclusion that both risk and the correction for output price to investment ratio help to explain the differentials.
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The case reported refers to a patient who developed status epilepticus in the day of her third dose of hepatitis B vaccination and we review the literature on this subject. A 12 year-old girl, without a relevant previous history, taking no drugs, developed a seizure attack followed by unconsciousness, and eventually died after three days of her third dose of hepatitis B (HB) vaccination. Autopsy study revealed cerebral edema with congestion and herniation and diffuse interstitial type pneumonitis. There seem to be a straight forward time relationship between the third HB vaccine, the event of convulsion and the sudden death of the patient. We suggest that, in some cases, vaccination may be the triggering factor for autoimmune and neurological disturbances in genetically predisposed individuals and physicians should be aware of this possible association. (c) 2007 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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A panel of experts from Latin America convened in Brazil, in May of 2007, for consensus recommendations regarding the management of neuroendocrine tumors ( NETs) of the gastrointestinal tract and pancreas. The recently introduced World Health Organization classification of NETs represents a step forward, but the former classification of carcinoids into foregut, midgut and hindgut is still likely to be useful in the near future. Macroscopic description of the tumor should be followed by light microscopic examination and immunohistochemical staining, whereas other techniques might not be widely available in Latin America. Surgery remains the mainstay of treatment for patients with potentially curable tumors, and adequate selection is paramount in order to optimize treatment results. Regarding systemic therapy, patients with well-differentiated tumors or islet-cell carcinomas may be categorized as having indolent disease, while patients with poorly differentiated, anaplastic, and small-cell carcinomas, or with atypical carcinoids, may be approached initially as having aggressive disease. Somatostatin analogues play a cytostatic role in indolent tumors, and chemotherapy may play a role against other, more aggressive NETs. Obviously, there is an urgent need for novel therapies that are effective against NETs. Copyright (C) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel
Resumo:
In a recent paper [16], one of us identified all of the quasi-stationary distributions for a non-explosive, evanescent birth-death process for which absorption is certain, and established conditions for the existence of the corresponding limiting conditional distributions. Our purpose is to extend these results in a number of directions. We shall consider separately two cases depending on whether or not the process is evanescent. In the former case we shall relax the condition that absorption is certain. Furthermore, we shall allow for the possibility that the minimal process might be explosive, so that the transition rates alone will not necessarily determine the birth-death process uniquely. Although we shall be concerned mainly with the minimal process, our most general results hold for any birth-death process whose transition probabilities satisfy both the backward and the forward Kolmogorov differential equations.
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A state-contingent model of production under uncertainty is developed and compared with more traditional models of production under uncertainty. Producer behaviour with both production and price risk, in the presence and in the absence of futures and forward markets, is analysed in this state-contingent framework. Conditions for the optimal hedge to be positive or negative are derived. We also show that, under plausible conditions, a risk-averse producer facing price uncertainty and the ability to hedge price risk will never willingly adopt a nonstochastic technology. New separation results, which hold in the presence of both price and production risk, are then developed. These separation results generalize Townsend's spanning results by reducing the number of necessary forward markets by one.