An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in the Turks and Caicos Islands

The best description of water resources for Grand Turk was offered by Pérez Monteagudo (2000) who suggested that rain water was insufficient to ensure a regular water supply although water catchment was being practised and water catchment possibilities had been analysed. Limestone islands, mostly flat and low lying, have few possibilities for large scale surface storage, and groundwater lenses exist in very delicate equilibrium with saline seawater, and are highly likely to collapse due to sea level rise, improper extraction, drought, tidal waves or other extreme event. A study on the impact of climate change on water resources in the Turks and Caicos Islands is a challenging task, due to the fact that the territory of the Islands covers different environmental resources and conditions, and accurate data are lacking. The present report is based on collected data wherever possible, including grey data from several sources such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Cuban meteorological service data sets. Other data were also used, including the author’s own estimates and modelling results. Although challenging, this was perhaps the best approach towards analysing the situation. Furthermore, IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios were used in the present study in an effort to reduce uncertainty. The main conclusion from the scenario approach is that the trend observed in precipitation during the period 1961 - 1990 is decreasing. Similar behaviour was observed in the Caribbean region. This trend is associated with meteorological causes, particularly with the influence of the North Atlantic Anticyclone. The annual decrease in precipitation is estimated to be between 30-40% with uncertain impacts on marine resources. After an assessment of fresh water resources in Turks and Caicos Islands, the next step was to estimate residential water demand based on a high fertility rate scenario for the Islands (one selected from four scenarios and compared to countries having similar characteristics). The selected scenario presents higher projections on consumption growth, enabling better preparation for growing water demand. Water demand by tourists (stopover and excursionists, mainly cruise passengers) was also obtained, based on international daily consumption estimates. Tourism demand forecasts for Turks and Caicos Islands encompass the forty years between 2011 and 2050 and were obtained by means of an Artificial Neural Networks approach. for the A2 and B2 scenarios, resulting in the relation BAU>B2>A2 in terms of tourist arrivals and water demand levels from tourism. Adaptation options and policies were analysed. Resolving the issue of the best technology to be used for Turks and Caicos Islands is not directly related to climate change. Total estimated water storage capacity is about 1, 270, 800 m3/ year with 80% capacity load for three plants. However, almost 11 desalination plants have been detected on Turks and Caicos Islands. Without more data, it is not possible to estimate long term investment to match possible water demand and more complex adaptation options. One climate change adaptation option would be the construction of elevated (30 metres or higher) storm resistant water reservoirs. The unit cost of the storage capacity is the sum of capital costs and operational and maintenance costs. Electricity costs to pump water are optional as water should, and could, be stored for several months. The costs arising for water storage are in the range of US$ 0.22 cents/m3 without electricity costs. Pérez Monteagudo (2000) estimated water prices at around US$ 2.64/m3 in stand points, US$ 7.92 /m3 for government offices, and US$ 13.2 /m3for cistern truck vehicles. These data need to be updated. As Turks and Caicos Islands continues to depend on tourism and Reverse Osmosis (RO) for obtaining fresh water, an unavoidable condition to maintaining and increasing gross domestic product(GDP) and population welfare, dependence on fossil fuels and vulnerability to increasingly volatile prices will constitute an important restriction. In this sense, mitigation supposes a synergy with adaptation. Energy demand and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) were also estimated using an emissions factor of 2. 6 tCO2/ tonne of oil equivalent (toe). Assuming a population of 33,000 inhabitants, primary energy demand was estimated for Turks and Caicos Islands at 110,000 toe with electricity demand of around 110 GWh. The business as usual (BAU), as well as the mitigation scenarios were estimated. The BAU scenario suggests that energy use should be supported by imported fossil fuels with important improvements in energy efficiency. The mitigation scenario explores the use of photovoltaic and concentrating solar power, and wind energy. As this is a preliminary study, the local potential and locations need to be identified to provide more relevant estimates. Macroeconomic assumptions are the same for both scenarios. By 2050, Turks and Caicos Islands could demand 60 m toe less than for the BAU scenario.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the British Virgin Islands

Owing to their high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, Caribbean islands have legitimate concerns about their future, based on observational records, experience with current patterns and consequences of climate variability, and climate model projections. Although emitting less than 1% of global greenhouse gases, islands from the region have already perceived a need to reallocate scarce resources away from economic development and poverty reduction, and towards the implementation of strategies to adapt to the growing threats posed by global warming (Nurse and Moore, 2005). The objectives of this Report are to conduct economic analyses of the projected impacts of climate change to 2050, within the context of the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios, on the coastal and marine resources of the British Virgin Islands (BVI). The Report presents a valuation of coastal and marine services; quantitative and qualitative estimates of climate change impacts on the coastal zone; and recommendations of possible adaptation strategies and costs and benefits of adaptation. A multi-pronged approach is employed in valuing the marine and coastal sector. Direct use and indirect use values are estimated. The amount of economic activity an ecosystem service generates in the local economy underpins estimation of direct use values. Tourism and fisheries are valued using the framework developed by the World Resources Institute. Biodiversity is valued in terms of the ecological functions it provides, such as climate regulation, shoreline protection, water supply erosion control and sediment retention, and biological control, among others. Estimates of future losses to the coastal zone from climate change are determined by considering: (1) the effect of sea level rise on coastal lands; and (2) the effect of a rise in sea surface temperature (SST) on coastal waters. Discount rates of 1%, 2% and 4% are employed to analyse all loss estimates in present value terms. The overall value for the coastal and marine sector is USD $1,606 million (mn). This is almost 2% larger than BVI’s 2008 GDP. Tourism and recreation comprise almost two-thirds of the value of the sector. By 2100, the effects of climate change on coastal lands are projected to be $3,988.6 mn, and $2,832.9 mn under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively. In present value terms, if A2 occurs, losses range from $108.1-$1,596.8 mn and if B2 occurs, losses range from $74.1-$1,094.1 mn, depending on the discount rate used. Estimated costs of a rise in SST in 2050 indicate that they vary between $1,178.0 and $1,884.8 mn. Assuming a discount rate of 4%, losses range from $226.6 mn for the B2 scenario to $363.0 mn for the A2 scenario. If a discount rate of 1% is assumed, estimated losses are much greater, ranging from $775.6-$1,241.0 mn. Factoring in projected climate change impacts, the net value of the coastal and marine sector suggests that the costs of climate change significantly reduce the value of the sector, particularly under the A2 and B2 climate change scenarios for discount rates of 1% and 2%. In contrast, the sector has a large, positive, though declining trajectory, for all years when a 4% discount rate is employed. Since the BVI emits minimal greenhouse gases, but will be greatly affected by climate change, the report focuses on adaptation as opposed to mitigation strategies. The options shortlisted are: (1) enhancing monitoring of all coastal waters to provide early warning alerts of bleaching and other marine events; (2) introducing artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices; (3) introducing alternative tourist attractions; (4) providing retraining for displaced tourism workers; and (5) revising policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities. All adaptation options considered are quite justifiable in national terms; each had benefit-cost ratios greater than 1.

Population structure and relative growth of the Amazon shrimp Macrobrachium amazonicum (Heller, 1862) (Decapoda: Palaemonidae) on two islands in the fluvial-estuarine plain of the Brazilian Amazon

This study aimed to describe the population structure of the Amazon shrimp Macrobrachium amazonicum, as well as their relative growth between the length of the cephalothorax and the total length, and between the length of the cephalothorax and the total mass of shrimps of a fluvial-estuarine plain in the State of Pará. Shrimps were sampled monthly from August 2006 to July 2007, using trawl nets, taking three replicates at each site (Arapiranga and Mosqueiro) per month, totaling 72 replicates. We caught 5,510 specimens, being 90.90% from Arapiranga Island and 9.1% from Mosqueiro Island. The highest densities occurred in July (1.33 individuals/m²), at the beginning of the dry season and in December (1.66 individuals/m²), at the beginning of the rainy season. The morphometric analysis for separate and grouped sexes resulted in negative and positive allometric growth. Ovigerous females were observed in all months, indicating continuous reproduction and the majority (67.81%) was caught during the less rainy season. The abundance and continuous reproduction of M. amazonicum show that this estuary offers conditions for the proper development of this population.

Using phenology to assess urban heat islands in tropical and temperate regions

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

GASTROPOD SHELLS USED BY Dardanus insignis (Decapoda, Anomura) NEAR ISLANDS IN THE UBATUBA REGION, SAO PAULO, BRAZIL

The use of gastropod shells by hermit crabs is determined by the availability of shells in the environment or through selection for size and volume. This study analyzed patterns in the use of shells by Dardanus insignis (Saussure, 1858). From January 1998 to December 1999, 386 individuals were collected from two islands at Ubatuba, Sao Paulo. The crabs were measured for cephalothoracic shield length (CSL) and wet weight (CWW). The gastropod shells occupied by hermit crabs were identified, and the shell aperture width (SAW), dry weight (SDW) and internal volume (STY) were measured. The relationships between the dimensions of the gastropod shell and the hermit crabs were evaluated by linear regression analysis. Among the 11 species of gastropod shells used by D. insignis, the most often used was Olivancillaria urceus (31%), followed by Strombus pugilis (22%) and Siratus tenuivaricosus (18%). The shell of O. urceus was used most probably due to its high availability on Couves and Mar Virado islands. The most significant biometric parameter was shell aperture width (F=18.231; p<0.0001), highlighting the importance of this variable for the shell choice by D. insignis at both sites.

Caridean Shrimps Associated with the Slimy Sea Plume (Pseudopterogorigia americana) in Midsummer at Guana Island, British Virgin Islands, West Indies

Fifty-one slimy sea plumes (Pseudopterogorgia americana Gmelin, 1791) were sampled for caridean shrimps at Guana Island, British Virgin Islands, during one week in July 1992. Sam- pling depth ranged from 3-22 m. Nine species were collected: Hippolyte nicholsoni Chace, 1972; Latreutes sp.; Neopontonides chacei Heard, 1986; Perclimenes cf. patae Heard and Spotte, 1991; Periclimenes cf. pauper Holthuis, 1951; Periclimenes sp.; Pseudocoutierea antillensis Chace, 1972; Tozeuma cf. cornutum Milne Edwards, 1881; and Trachycaris rugosa (Bate, 1888). A total of 1,418 specimens (including fragments) was obtained. The number of shrimp species per gorgonian ranged from 1-5; one gorgonian harbored 156 shrimps. The two predominant species, N. chacei and H. nicholsoni, occupy different mean depths (12.6 and 8.2 m, respectively). Sexual dimorphism assessed with Mann-Whitney U-tests was not apparent in the specimens of N. chacei (P > 0.05), but females of H. nicholsoni were significantly larger than males (P < 0.001). Minimum carapace length (CL, the tip of the rostrum to the posterior dorsal margin of the carapace) at which male N. chacei acquire a single appendix masculina spine is 1.25 mm; male H. nicholsoni can acquire a single spine at 0.9 mm CL. Histological sections of male N. chacei showed that shrimp with 0 or 1 spine are least likely to be mature. Female N. chacei can become ovigerous at 1.9 mm CL and female H. nicholsoni at 1.2 mm CL. The taxonomic status of 5 of the 9 species collected is uncertain.

Hunting and social behaviour of leopard seals (Hydrurga leptonyx) at Seal Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica

The hunting behavior of leopard seals Hydrurga leptonyx was monitored opportunistically at Seal Island, South Shetland Islands, during the austral summers from 1986/87 to 1994/95. Leopard seals used several methods to catch Antarctic fur seal pups Arctocephalus gazella and chinstrap penguins Pygoscelis antarctica, and individuals showed different hunting styles and hunting success. One to two leopard seals per year were responsible for an average of 60% of observed captures of fur seal pups. Leopard seals preyed on penguins throughout the summer, but preyed on fur seal pups only between late December and mid-February. Hunting behavior differed significantly between different locations on the island; fur seals were hunted only at one colony, and penguins were hunted in several areas. The relative abundance of prey types, size of prey in relation to predator, and specialization of individual leopard seals to hunt fur seal prey probably influence individual prey preferences among leopard seals. On five occasions, two leopard seals were seen together on Seal Island. Possible interpretations of the relationship between the interacting leopard seals included a mother-offspring relationship, a consorting male-female pair, and an adult leopard seal followed by an unrelated juvenile. In two incidents at Seal Island, two leopard seals were observed interacting while hunting: one seal captured fur seal pups and appeared to release them to the other seal. Observations of leopard seals interacting during hunting sessions were difficult to confirm as co-operative hunting, but they strongly implied that the two seals were not agonistic toward one another. The hunting success of individual leopard seals pursuing penguins or fur seals is probably high enough for co-operative hunting not to become a common hunting strategy; however, it may occur infrequently when it increases the hunting productivity of the seals.

Estimating abundance of killer whales in the nearshore waters of the Gulf of Alaska and Aleutian Islands using line-transect sampling

Killer whale (Orcinus orca Linnaeus, 1758) abundance in the North Pacific is known only for a few populations for which extensive longitudinal data are available, with little quantitative data from more remote regions. Line-transect ship surveys were conducted in July and August of 2001–2003 in coastal waters of the western Gulf of Alaska and the Aleutian Islands. Conventional and Multiple Covariate Distance Sampling methods were used to estimate the abundance of different killer whale ecotypes, which were distinguished based upon morphological and genetic data. Abundance was calculated separately for two data sets that differed in the method by which killer whale group size data were obtained. Initial group size (IGS) data corresponded to estimates of group size at the time of first sighting, and post-encounter group size (PEGS) corresponded to estimates made after closely approaching sighted groups.

Potential Economic Damage From Introduction of Brown Tree Snakes, Boiga Irregularis (Reptilia: Colubridae), to The Islands Of Hawai‘i

The Brown Tree Snake (Boiga irregularis) has caused ecological and economic damage to Guam, and the snake has the potential to colonize other islands in the Pacific Ocean. This study quantifies the potential economic damage if the snake were translocated, established in the state of Hawaii, and causing damage at levels similar to those on Guam. Damages modeled included costs of medical treatments due to snakebites, snake-caused power outages, and decreased tourism resulting from effects of the snake. Damage caused by presence of the Brown Tree Snake on Guam was used as a guide to estimate potential economic damage to Hawaii from both medical- and power outage–related damage. To predict tourism impact, a survey was administered to Hawaiian tourists that identified tourist responses to potential effects of the Brown Tree Snake. These results were then used in an input-output model to predict damage to the state economy. Summing these damages resulted in an estimated total potential annual damage to Hawaii of between $593 million and $2.14 billion. This economic analysis provides a range of potential damages that policy makers can use in evaluation of future prevention and control programs.

Two New Species of Prosorhynchinae (Trematoda : Gasterostomata) from the Fiji Islands

The following trematodes are part of a collection made by the author at Suva, Fiji in 1951. 1. Prosorhynchus squamatus Odhner, 1905 is believed to be distinct from P. crucibulus and most other species in the genus on the basis of its oval-shaped rhynchus. It thus remains, as originally, the type species of the genus. 2. Prosorhynchus thapari n. sp. is described from Plectropoma maculatum (Bloch) from Suva, Fiji. The "P. facilis (Ozaki, 1924)" of Nagaty (1937) is considered to be a synonym. 3. Neidhartia polydactyli n. sp. is described from Polydactylus plebius (Bonnaterre) from Suva, Fiji.

Redefining the taxonomic status of Laurencia dendroidea (Ceramiales, Rhodophyta) from Brazil and the Canary Islands

Morphological and molecular studies have been performed on Laurencia dendroidea derived from Brazil and the Canary Islands. This species possesses all of the characters that are typical of the genus Laurencia, including the production of the first pericentral cell underneath the basal cell of the trichoblast; the production of tetrasporangia from particular pericentral cells without the formation of additional fertile pericentral cells; spermatangial branches that are produced from one of two laterals on the suprabasal cell of the trichoblasts; and a procarp-bearing segment that possesses five pericentral cells. The phylogenetic position of L. dendroidea was inferred by analysing the chloroplast-encoded rbcL gene sequences of 51 taxa. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that the taxa previously identified and cited in Brazil as Laurencia filiformis, L. majuscula and L. obtusa and in the Canary Islands as L. majuscula all represent the same taxonomic entity and examination of type material allowed us to identify this entity as L. dendroidea, whose type locality is in Brazil. Laurencia obtusa from the Northern Atlantic is confirmed to represent a distinct species, which displays high genetic divergence with respect to western and eastern Atlantic samples. The phylogenetic analyses also supported the nomenclatural transfer of Chondrophycus furcatus (Cordeiro-Marino & M. T. Fujii) M. T. Fujii & Senties to Palisada furcata (Cordeiro-Marino & M. T. Fujii) Cassano & M. T. Fujii comb. nov.

Morphological and molecular evidences within Osmundea (Ceramiales, Rhodophyta) from the Canary Islands, eastern Atlantic Ocean

The genus Osmundea is a strongly supported monophyletic group within the Laurencia complex and shows a disjunct distribution occurring in the North-East and South-West Pacific, the Indian and Atlantic oceans and the Mediterranean Sea. Its phenotypic plasticity on the Canary Islands may be the result of the high ecological variability partially due to the particular oceanographic characteristics in this region. The combination of molecular analyses based on the comparison of the chloroplast-encoded rbcL sequences and morphological data allowed us to delimit three distinct taxa from the coasts of the Canarian Archipelago: Osmundea pinnatifida, Osmundea truncata and an unidentified species, Osmundea sp. Moreover, the high value of genetic divergence between Osmundea sp. and the rest of the Osmundea species suggests that this taxon should be assigned to a new species within the Osmundea genus. Occurrence of O. hybrida and O. oederi (synonym: O. ramosissima) has not been confirmed. Our results also suggest a possibly questionable record of the taxa O. hybrida and O. oederi on the Canary Islands.

And Trategies brazilian of power and territorialization for the control of the Islands of the Atlantic South

United Nations on the Rights of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the Convention of Heritage Cultural and Natural of the Humanity.