Market effects of foreign exchange coordinated intervention

In this article we develop a theoretical microstructure model of coordinated central bank intervention based on asymmetric information. We study the economic implications of coordination on some measures of market quality and show that the model predicts higher volatility and more significant exchange rate changes when central banks coordinate compared to when they intervene unilaterally. Both these predictions are in line with empirical evidence. Keywords: coordinated foreign exchange intervention, market microstructure. JEL Classification: D82, E58, F31, G14

Handheld-assisted field data collection for occupational risk assessment.

A computerized handheld procedure is presented in this paper. It is intended as a database complementary tool, to enhance prospective risk analysis in the field of occupational health. The Pendragon forms software (version 3.2) has been used to implement acquisition procedures on Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs) and to transfer data to a computer in an MS-Access format. The data acquisition strategy proposed relies on the risk assessment method practiced at the Institute of Occupational Health Sciences (IST). It involves the use of a systematic hazard list and semi-quantitative risk assessment scales. A set of 7 modular forms has been developed to cover the basic need of field audits. Despite the minor drawbacks observed, the results obtained so far show that handhelds are adequate to support field risk assessment and follow-up activities. Further improvements must still be made in order to increase the tool effectiveness and field adequacy.

Conference scene: Immune signatures in the tumor and beyond.

Led by key opinion leaders in the field, the Cancer Immunotherapy Consortium of the Cancer Research Institute 2012 Scientific Colloquium included 179 participants who exchanged cutting-edge information on basic, clinical and translational cancer immunology and immunotherapy. The meeting revealed how rapidly this field is advancing. The keynote talk was given by Wolf H Fridman and it described the microenvironment of primary and metastatic human tumors. Participants interacted through oral presentations and panel discussions on topics that included host reactions in tumors, advances in imaging, monitoring therapeutic immune modulation, the benefit and risk of immunotherapy, and immune monitoring activities. In summary, the annual meeting gathered clinicians and scientists from academia, industry and regulatory agencies from around the globe to interact and exchange important scientific advances related to tumor immunobiology and cancer immunotherapy.

Deconstructing Shocks and Persistence in OECD Real Exchange Rates

This paper analyzes the persistence of shocks that affect the real exchange rates for a panel of seventeen OECD developed countries during the post-Bretton Woods era. The adoption of a panel data framework allows us to distinguish two different sources of shocks, i.e. the idiosyncratic and the common shocks, each of which may have di¤erent persistence patterns on the real exchange rates. We first investigate the stochastic properties of the panel data set using panel stationarity tests that simultaneously consider both the presence of cross-section dependence and multiple structural breaks that have not received much attention in previous persistence analyses. Empirical results indicate that real exchange rates are non-stationary when the analysis does not account for structural breaks, although this conclusion is reversed when they are modeled. Consequently, misspecification errors due to the non-consideration of structural breaks leads to upward biased shocks' persistence measures. The persistence measures for the idiosyncratic and common shocks have been estimated in this paper always turn out to be less than one year.

AFT3 as a new therapeutic target for skin field cancerization in antagonism with compromised Notch/CSL signaling

Les interactions épithélio-mésenchymateuses jouent un rôle important dans le contrôle du développement normal de la peau, son homéostasie et sa tumorigenèse. Les fibroblastes dermiques (DFs) représentent la catégorie cellulaire la plus abondante dans le stroma et leur rôle est de plus en plus considéré. En ce qui concerne particulièrement la tumorigenèse, des facteurs diffusibles produits par les fibroblastes entourant les tumeurs épithéliales, appelés 'fibroblastes associés au cancer (CAF)', interagissent au niveau de l'inflammation impliquée directement ou indirectement dans la signalisation paracrine, entre le stroma et les cellules épiéliales cancéreuses. Le risque de cancer de la peau augmente de façon exponentielle avec l'âge. Comme un lien probable entre les deux, la sénescence des fibroblastes résulte de la production du sécrétome favorisant la sénescence (SMS), un groupe de facteurs diffusibles induisant une stimulation paracrine de la croissance, l'inflammation et le remodelage de la matrice. De façon fort intéressante, l'induction de ces gènes est aussi une caractéristique des CAFs. Cependant, le lien entre les deux événements cellulaires sénescence et activation des CAFs reste en grande partie inexploré. L'ATF3 (Activating Transcription Factor 3) est un facteur de transcription induit en réponse au stress, dont les fonctions sont hautement spécifiques du type cellulaire. Bien qu'il ait été découvert dans notre laboratoire en tant que promoteur de tumeurs dans les kératinocytes, ses fonctions biologique et biochimique dans le derme n'ont pas encore été étudiées. Récemment, nous avons constaté que, chez la souris, l'abrogation de la voie de signalisation de Notch/CSL dans les DFs, induisait la formation de tumeurs kératinocytaires multifocales. Ces dernières proviennent de la cancérisation en domaine, un phénomène associé à une atrophie du stroma, des altérations de la matrice et de l'inflammation. D'autres études ont montré que CSL agissait comme un régulateur négatif de gènes impliqués dans sénescence des DFs et dans l'activation des CAFs. Ici, nous montrons que la suppression ou l'atténuation de l'expression de ATF3 dans les DFs induit la sénescence et l'expression des gènes liés aux CAFs, de façon similaire à celle déclenchée par la perte de CSL, tandis que la surexpression de ATF3 supprime ces changements. Nous émettons l'hypothèse que ATF3 joue un rôle suppresseur dans l'activation des CAFs et dans la progression des tumeurs kératinocytaires, en surmontant les conséquences de l'abrogation de la voie de signalisation Notch/CSL. En concordance avec cette hypothèse, nous avons constaté que la perte de ATF3 dans les DFs favorisait la tumorigénicité des kératinocytes via le contrôle négatif de cytokines, des enzymes de la matrice de remodelage et de protéines associées au cancer, peut-être par liaison directe des effecteurs de la voie Notch/CSL : IL6 et les gènes Hes. Enfin, dans les échantillons cliniques humains, le stroma sous-jacent aux lésions précancéreuses de kératoses actiniques montre une diminution significative de l'expression de ATF3 par rapport au stroma jouxtant la peau normale. La restauration de l'expression de ATF3 pourrait être utilisée comme un outil thérapeutique en recherche translationnelle pour prévenir ou réprimer le processus de cancérisation en domaine. - Epithelial-mesenchymal interactions play an important role in control of normal skin development, homeostasis and tumorigenesis. The role of dermal fibroblasts (DFs) as the most abundant cell type in stroma is increasingly appreciated. Especially during tumorigenesis, fibroblasts surrounding epithelial tumors, called Cancer Associated Fibroblasts (CAFs), produce diffusible factors (growth factors, inflammatory cytokines, chemokines and enzymes, and matrix metalloproteinases) that mediate inflammation either directly or indirectly through paracrine signaling between stroma and epithelial cancer cells. The risk of skin cancer increases exponentially with age. As a likely link between the two, senescence of fibroblasts results in production of the senescence-messaging-secretome (SMS), a panel of diffusible factors inducing paracrine growth stimulation, inflammation, and matrix remodeling. Interestingly, induction of these genes is also a characteristic of Cancer Associated Fibroblasts (CAFs). However, the link between the two cellular events, senescence and CAF activation is largely unexplored. ATF3 is a key stress response transcription factor with highly cell type specific functions, which has been discovered as a tumor promoter in keratinocytes in our lab. However, the biological and biochemical function of ATF3 in the dermal compartment of the skin has not been studied yet. Recently, we found that compromised Notch/CSL signaling in dermal fibroblasts (DFs) in mice is a primary cause of multifocal keratinocyte tumors called field cancerization associated with stromal atrophy, matrix alterations and inflammation. Further studies showed that CSL functions as a negative regulator of genes involved in DFs senescence and CAF activation. Here, we show that deletion or silencing of the ATF3 gene in DFs activates senescence and CAF-related gene expression similar to that triggered by loss of CSL, while increased ATF3 suppresses these changes. We hypothesize that ATF3 plays a suppressing role in CAF activation and keratinocyte tumor progression, overcoming the consequences of compromised Notch/CSL signaling. In support of this hypothesis, we found that loss of ATF3 in DFs promotes tumorigenic behavior of keratinocytes via negative control of cytokines, matrix-remodeling enzymes and cancer-associated proteins, possibly through direct binding to Notch/CSL targets, IL6 and Hes genes. On the other hand, in human clinical samples, stromal fields underlying premalignant actinic keratosis lesions showed significantly decreased ATF3 expression relative to stroma of flanking normal skin. Restoration of ATF3, which is lost in cancer development, may be used as a therapeutic tool for translational research to prevent or suppress the field cancerization process.

Stem cell transplantation in brain tumors: a new field for molecular imaging?

Neural stem cells have been proposed as a new and promising treatment modality in various pathologies of the central nervous system, including malignant brain tumors. However, the underlying mechanism by which neural stem cells target tumor areas remains elusive. Monitoring of these cells is currently done by use of various modes of molecular imaging, such as optical imaging, magnetic resonance imaging and positron emission tomography, which is a novel technology for visualizing metabolism and signal transduction to gene expression. In this new context, the microenvironment of (malignant) brain tumors and the blood-brain barrier gains increased interest. The authors of this review give a unique overview of the current molecular-imaging techniques used in different therapeutic experimental brain tumor models in relation to neural stem cells. Such methods for molecular imaging of gene-engineered neural stem/progenitor cells are currently used to trace the location and temporal level of expression of therapeutic and endogenous genes in malignant brain tumors, closing the gap between in vitro and in vivo integrative biology of disease in neural stem cell transplantation.

Can a Lucas model with habit generate realistic conditional volatility in exchange rate returns?

In this paper, we attempt to give a theoretical underpinning to the well established empirical stylized fact that asset returns in general and the spot FOREX returns in particular display predictable volatility characteristics. Adopting Moore and Roche s habit persistence version of Lucas model we nd that both the innovation in the spot FOREX return and the FOREX return itself follow "ARCH" style processes. Using the impulse response functions (IRFs) we show that the baseline simulated FOREX series has "ARCH" properties in the quarterly frequency that match well the "ARCH" properties of the empirical monthly estimations in that when we scale the x-axis to synchronize the monthly and quarterly responses we find similar impulse responses to one unit shock in variance. The IRFs for the ARCH processes we estimate "look the same" with an approximately monotonic decreasing fashion. The Lucas two-country monetary model with habit can generate realistic conditional volatility in spot FOREX return.

Common and Idiosyncratic Factors of the Exchange Risk Premium in Emerging European Markets

Existing empirical evidence suggests that the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIRP) condition may not hold due to an exchange risk premium. For a panel data set of eleven emerging European economies we decompose this exchange risk premium into an idiosyncratic (country-specific) elements and a common factor using a principal components approach. We present evidence of a stationary idiosyncratic component and nonstationary common factor. This result leads to the conclusion of a nonstationary risk premium for these countries and a violation of the UIRP in the long-run, which is in contrast to previous studies often documenting a stationary premium in developed countries. Furthermore, we report that the variation in the premium is largely attributable to a common factor influenced by economic developments in the United States.

Structural Breaks in the Real Exchange Rate and Real Interest Rate Relationship

In this paper we empirically examine the relationship between the real exchange rate and real interest rate differentials using recent econometric methods robust to potential structural breaks. Generally, our study provides evidence of this relationship in the long-run context. More specifically, we first focus on the UK-US relationship, and interestingly find limited evidence of this long-run relationship using traditional methods. But when an approach robust to endogenously determined structural breaks is employed, we find evidence that the real interest rate differential is an important determinant of the real exchange rate. Secondly, in order to investigate the relevance of structural shifts in a more global context, we carry out multiple country analysis. While providing evidence of this long-run relationship, European data suggest that the presence of structural breaks is not very common across countries and is indeed country-specific.

3-Regime symmetric STAR modeling and exchange rate reversion

The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system and the adoption of generalized oating exchange rates ushered in a new era of exchange rate volatility and uncer- tainty. This increased volatility lead economists to search for economic models able to describe observed exchange rate behavior. In the present paper we propose more general STAR transition functions which encompass both threshold nonlinearity and asymmetric e¤ects. Our framework allows for a gradual adjustment from one regime to another, and considers threshold e¤ects by encompassing other existing models, such as TAR models. We apply our methodology to three di¤erent exchange rate data-sets, one for developing countries, and o¢ cial nominal exchange rates, the sec- ond emerging market economies using black market exchange rates and the third for OECD economies.

Exchange rate forecasters’ performance: evidence of skill?

This paper sheds new light on a long-standing puzzle in the international finance literature, namely, that exchange rate expectations appear inaccurate and even irrational. We find for a comprehensive dataset that individual forecasters’ performance is skill-based. ‘Superior’ forecasters show consistent ability as their forecasting success holds across currencies. They seem to possess knowledge on the role of fundamentals in explaining exchange rate behavior, as indicated by better interest rate forecasts. Superior forecasters are more experienced than the median forecaster and have fewer personnel responsibilities. Accordingly, foreign exchange markets may function in less puzzling and irrational ways than is often thought.

Technical Appendix-3-Regime asymmetric STAR modeling and exchange rate reversion

The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system and the adoption of generalized oating exchange rates ushered in a new era of exchange rate volatility and uncer- tainty. This increased volatility lead economists to search for economic models able to describe observed exchange rate behavior. The present is a technical Appendix to Cerrato et al. (2009) and presents detailed simulations of the proposed methodology and additional empirical results.