Safety illusion and error trap in a collectively-operated machine accident

Workplace accidents involving machines are relevant for their magnitude and their impacts on worker health. Despite consolidated critical statements, explanation centered on errors of operators remains predominant with industry professionals, hampering preventive measures and the improvement of production-system reliability. Several initiatives were adopted by enforcement agencies in partnership with universities to stimulate production and diffusion of analysis methodologies with a systemic approach. Starting from one accident case that occurred with a worker who operated a brake-clutch type mechanical press, the article explores cognitive aspects and the existence of traps in the operation of this machine. It deals with a large-sized press that, despite being endowed with a light curtain in areas of access to the pressing zone, did not meet legal requirements. The safety devices gave rise to an illusion of safety, permitting activation of the machine when a worker was still found within the operational zone. Preventive interventions must stimulate the tailoring of systems to the characteristics of workers, minimizing the creation of traps and encouraging safety policies and practices that replace judgments of behaviors that participate in accidents by analyses of reasons that lead workers to act in that manner.

Prediction and probability of neonatal outcome in isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia using multiple ultrasound parameters

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Theoretical estimates of consumable food and probability of acquiring food in larvae of Chrysomya putoria (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

An indirect estimate of consumable food and probability of acquiring food in a blowfly species, Chrysomya putoria, is presented. This alternative procedure combines three distinct models to estimate consumable food in the context of the exploitative competition experienced by immature individuals in blowfly populations. The relevant parameters are derived from data for pupal weight and survival and estimates of density-independent larval mortality in twenty different larval densities. As part of this procedure, the probability of acquiring food per unit of time and the time taken to exhaust the food supply are also calculated. The procedure employed here may be valuable for estimations in insects whose immature stages develop inside the food substrate, where it is difficult to partial out confounding effects such as separation of faeces. This procedure also has the advantage of taking into account the population dynamics of immatures living under crowded conditions, which are particularly characteristic of blowflies and other insects as well.

Variational supersymmetric approach to evaluate Fokker-Planck probability

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Survival probability of large rapidity gaps in a QCD model with a dynamical infrared mass scale

We compute the survival probability {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} of large rapidity gaps (LRG) in a QCD based eikonal model with a dynamical gluon mass, where this dynamical infrared mass scale represents the onset of nonperturbative contributions to the diffractive hadron-hadron scattering. Since rapidity gaps can occur in the case of Higgs boson production via fusion of electroweak bosons, we focus on WW -> H fusion processes and show that the resulting {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} decreases with the increase of the energy of the incoming hadrons; in line with the available experimental data for LRG. We obtain {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} = 27.6 +/- 7.8% (18.2 +/- 17.0%) at Tevatron (CERN-LHC) energy for a dynamical gluon mass m(g) = 400 MeV. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Testes multiambientais na seleção de genótipos de arroz utilizando o modelo de regressão nos sítios ou locais

A análise da interação genótipo x ambiente utilizda no melhoramento de plantas tem sofrido mudanças na última década, melhorando a sua eficiência quanto à seleção dos genótipos sob diferentes condições ambientais. O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar a produtividade e estabilidade de 12 genótipos de arroz em oito ambientes, durante os anos 2005 e 2006, na Colômbia. O delineamento utilizado foi o de blocos ao acaso com quatro repetições. Os parâmetros de estabilidade fenotípica e o agrupamento dos ambientes foram estimados pelo estudo da interação genótipo x ambiente, segundo o método SREG (Regressão nos sítios ou locais) e seu gráfico biplot (GGE). As análises estatísticas indicaram diferenças significativas (com 5% de probabilidade de erro) entre genótipos e entre ambientes e significância (com 5% de probabilidade de erro) da interação genótipo x ambiente, sugerindo uma resposta diferente dos genótipos nos vários ambientes. No método SREG, os dois primeiros componentes principais da interação explicaram 75,29% da interação. Os genótipos 400094, 350361 e a variedade Fedearroz 50 foram considerados os de maior produtividade. Segundo o gráfico biplot GGE, os ambientes La Libertad e Escobal foram os mais favoráveis para o cultivo do arroz.

Using error bounds to compare aggregated generalized transportation models

A comparative study of aggregation error bounds for the generalized transportation problem is presented. A priori and a posteriori error bounds were derived and a computational study was performed to (a) test the correlation between the a priori, the a posteriori, and the actual error and (b) quantify the difference of the error bounds from the actual error. Based on the results we conclude that calculating the a priori error bound can be considered as a useful strategy to select the appropriate aggregation level. The a posteriori error bound provides a good quantitative measure of the actual error.

Analytical and Monte Carlo approaches to evaluate probability distributions of interruption duration

Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties-and, in some cases, rewards-that introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the maximum continuous interruption duration (MCID) per customer.This parameter is responsible for the majority of penalties in many electric distribution utilities. This paper describes analytical and Monte Carlo simulation approaches to evaluate probability distributions of interruption duration indices. More emphasis will be given to the development of an analytical method to assess the probability distribution associated with the parameter MCID and the correspond ng penalties. Case studies on a simple distribution network and on a real Brazilian distribution system are presented and discussed.

Modelling frequency distributions of 5 minute-averaged solar radiation indexes using Beta probability functions

Five minute-averaged values of sky clearness, direct and diffuse indices, were used to model the frequency distributions of these variables in terms of optical air mass. From more than four years of solar radiation observations it was found that variations in the frequency distributions of the three indices of optical air mass for Botucatu, Brazil, are similar to those in other places, as published in the literature. The proposed models were obtained by linear combination of normalized Beta probability functions, using the observed distributions derived from three years of data. The versatility of these functions allows modelling of all three irradiance indexes to similar levels of accuracy. A comparison with the observed distributions obtained from one year of observations indicate that the models are able to reproduce the observed frequency distributions of all three indices at the 95% confidence level.

Error function approximations of interest in electrochemistry.

The error function is present in several equations describing eletrode processes. But, only approximations of this function are used. In this work, these and other approximations are studied and evaluated according to precision.

Discrete coherent states and probability distributions in finite-dimensional spaces

Operator bases are discussed in connection with the construction of phase space representatives of operators in finite-dimensional spaces, and their properties are presented. It is also shown how these operator bases allow for the construction of a finite harmonic oscillator-like coherent state. Creation and annihilation operators for the Fock finite-dimensional space are discussed and their expressions in terms of the operator bases are explicitly written. The relevant finite-dimensional probability distributions are obtained and their limiting behavior for an infinite-dimensional space are calculated which agree with the well known results. (C) 1996 Academic Press, Inc.

Effects of direction and curvature on variable error pattern of reaching movements

A number of studies have analyzed various indices of the final position variability in order to provide insight into different levels of neuromotor processing during reaching movements. Yet the possible effects of movement kinematics on variability have often been neglected. The present study was designed to test the effects of movement direction and curvature on the pattern of movement variable errors. Subjects performed series of reaching movements over the same distance and into the same target. However, due either to changes in starting position or to applied obstacles, the movements were performed in different directions or along the trajectories of different curvatures. The pattern of movement variable errors was assessed by means of the principal component analysis applied on the 2-D scatter of movement final positions. The orientation of these ellipses demonstrated changes associated with changes in both movement direction and curvature. However, neither movement direction nor movement curvature affected movement variable errors assessed by area of the ellipses. Therefore it was concluded that the end-point variability depends partly, but not exclusively, on movement kinematics.

Parentage testing in alpacas (Vicugna pacos) using semi-automated fluorescent multiplex PCRs with 10 microsatellite markers

The aim of this study was to assess and apply a microsatellite multiplex system for parentage determination in alpacas. An approach for parentage testing based on 10 microsatellites was evaluated in a population of 329 unrelated alpacas from different geographical zones in Peru. All microsatellite markers, which amplified in two multiplex reactions, were highly polymorphic with a mean of 14.5 alleles per locus (six to 28 alleles per locus) and an average expected heterozygosity (H-E) of 0.8185 (range of 0.698-0.946). The total parentage exclusion probability was 0.999456 for excluding a candidate parent from parentage of an arbitrary offspring, given only the genotype of the offspring, and 0.999991 for excluding a candidate parent from parentage of an arbitrary offspring, given the genotype of the offspring and the other parent. In a case test of parentage assignment, the microsatellite panel assigned 38 (from 45 cases) offspring parentage to 10 sires with LOD scores ranging from 2.19 x 10(+13) to 1.34 x 10(+15) and Delta values ranging from 2.80 x 10(+12) to 1.34 x 10(+15) with an estimated pedigree error rate of 15.5%. The performance of this multiplex panel of markers suggests that it will be useful in parentage testing of alpacas.

Effect of juvenility on cutting propagation of red pitaya

Introduction. Pitaya (Hylocereus undatus) is an exotic fruit species little known in Brazil and which needs basic studies about plant nutrition, propagation and physiology. Emphasizing the co-existence of juvenile and adult stages in the pitaya canopy, the plant is generally propagated by cuttings. Materials and methods. A completely randomized design with four treatments and five replications was adopted. Each treatment was represented by the part of the canopy from which the cutting was taken ( upper, middle and lower cutting and cuttings from young plants). The following variables were registered: % cuttings with roots, % of live cuttings, root density, root diameter, root area, root length and root dry mass. Results were submitted to variance analyses, Tukey's test at 0.01 probability error and simple correlation analysis. Results and discussion. The results indicated that the position from which the cutting is taken had a quantitative effect on rooting formation of pitaya cuttings. Juvenile cuttings presented 35% more cuttings with roots than adult cuttings. Root density, root area, root length and root dry mass depended on juvenility, the highest results being registered for juvenile cuttings, independently of the variable. Conclusion. Juvenile and adult stages co-exist in the pitaya canopy. Juvenility is an important rooting factor for red pitaya cuttings.

Use of the Normalized Absorbance Ratio as an Internal Standardization Approach To Minimize Measurement Error in Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assays for Diagnosis of Human Papillomavirus Infection

The serological detection of antibodies against human papillomavirus (HPV) antigens is a useful tool to determine exposure to genital HPV infection and in predicting the risk of infection persistence and associated lesions. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) are commonly used for seroepidemiological studies of HPV infection but are not standardized. Intra-and interassay performance variation is difficult to control, especially in cohort studies that require the testing of specimens over extended periods. We propose the use of normalized absorbance ratios (NARs) as a standardization procedure to control for such variations and minimize measurement error. We compared NAR and ELISA optical density (OD) values for the strength of the correlation between serological results for paired visits 4 months apart and HPV-16 DNA positivity in cervical specimens from a cohort investigation of 2,048 women tested with an ELISA using HPV-16 virus-like particles. NARs were calculated by dividing the mean blank-subtracted (net) ODs by the equivalent values of a control serum pool included in the same plate in triplicate, using different dilutions. Stronger correlations were observed with NAR values than with net ODs at every dilution, with an overall reduction in nonexplained regression variability of 39%. Using logistic regression, the ranges of odds ratios of HPV-16 DNA positivity contrasting upper and lower quintiles at different dilutions and their averages were 4.73 to 5.47 for NARs and 2.78 to 3.28 for net ODs, with corresponding significant improvements in seroreactivity-risk trends across quintiles when NARs were used. The NAR standardization is a simple procedure to reduce measurement error in seroepidemiological studies of HPV infection.