Climate-based empirical models show biased predictions of butterfly communities along environmental gradients

A better understanding of the factors that mould ecological community structure is required to accurately predict community composition and to anticipate threats to ecosystems due to global changes. We tested how well stacked climate-based species distribution models (S-SDMs) could predict butterfly communities in a mountain region. It has been suggested that climate is the main force driving butterfly distribution and community structure in mountain environments, and that, as a consequence, climate-based S-SDMs should yield unbiased predictions. In contrast to this expectation, at lower altitudes, climate-based S-SDMs overpredicted butterfly species richness at sites with low plant species richness and underpredicted species richness at sites with high plant species richness. According to two indices of composition accuracy, the Sorensen index and a matching coefficient considering both absences and presences, S-SDMs were more accurate in plant-rich grasslands. Butterflies display strong and often specialised trophic interactions with plants. At lower altitudes, where land use is more intense, considering climate alone without accounting for land use influences on grassland plant richness leads to erroneous predictions of butterfly presences and absences. In contrast, at higher altitudes, where climate is the main force filtering communities, there were fewer differences between observed and predicted butterfly richness. At high altitudes, even if stochastic processes decrease the accuracy of predictions of presence, climate-based S-SDMs are able to better filter out butterfly species that are unable to cope with severe climatic conditions, providing more accurate predictions of absences. Our results suggest that predictions should account for plants in disturbed habitats at lower altitudes but that stochastic processes and heterogeneity at high altitudes may limit prediction success of climate-based S-SDMs.

Stochastic time-concentration activity models for cytotoxicity in 3D brain cell cultures.

BACKGROUND: In vitro aggregating brain cell cultures containing all types of brain cells have been shown to be useful for neurotoxicological investigations. The cultures are used for the detection of nervous system-specific effects of compounds by measuring multiple endpoints, including changes in enzyme activities. Concentration-dependent neurotoxicity is determined at several time points. METHODS: A Markov model was set up to describe the dynamics of brain cell populations exposed to potentially neurotoxic compounds. Brain cells were assumed to be either in a healthy or stressed state, with only stressed cells being susceptible to cell death. Cells may have switched between these states or died with concentration-dependent transition rates. Since cell numbers were not directly measurable, intracellular lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) activity was used as a surrogate. Assuming that changes in cell numbers are proportional to changes in intracellular LDH activity, stochastic enzyme activity models were derived. Maximum likelihood and least squares regression techniques were applied for estimation of the transition rates. Likelihood ratio tests were performed to test hypotheses about the transition rates. Simulation studies were used to investigate the performance of the transition rate estimators and to analyze the error rates of the likelihood ratio tests. The stochastic time-concentration activity model was applied to intracellular LDH activity measurements after 7 and 14 days of continuous exposure to propofol. The model describes transitions from healthy to stressed cells and from stressed cells to death. RESULTS: The model predicted that propofol would affect stressed cells more than healthy cells. Increasing propofol concentration from 10 to 100 μM reduced the mean waiting time for transition to the stressed state by 50%, from 14 to 7 days, whereas the mean duration to cellular death reduced more dramatically from 2.7 days to 6.5 hours. CONCLUSION: The proposed stochastic modeling approach can be used to discriminate between different biological hypotheses regarding the effect of a compound on the transition rates. The effects of different compounds on the transition rate estimates can be quantitatively compared. Data can be extrapolated at late measurement time points to investigate whether costs and time-consuming long-term experiments could possibly be eliminated.

A non-possibility theorem for joint-stability in interindustry models

Joint-stability in interindustry models relates to the mutual simultaneous consistency of the demand-driven and supply-driven models of Leontief and Ghosh, respectively. Previous work has claimed joint-stability to be an acceptable assumption from the empirical viewpoint, provided only small changes in exogenous variables are considered. We show in this note, however, that the issue has deeper theoretical roots and offer an analytical demonstration that shows the impossibility of consistency between demand-driven and supply-driven models.

Entrevistant infants pre-escolars víctimes d’abús sexual i/o maltractament familiar : Eficàcia dels models d’entrevista forense

Entrevistant infants pre-escolars víctimes d’abús sexual i/o maltractament familiar: eficàcia dels models d’entrevista forense Entrevistar infants en edat preescolar que han viscut una situació traumàtica és una tasca complexa que dins l’avaluació psicològica forense necessita d’un protocol perfectament delimitat, clar i temporalitzat. Per això, s’han seleccionat 3 protocols d’entrevista: el Protocol de Menors (PM) de Bull i Birch, el model del National Institute for Children Development (NICHD) de Michel Lamb, a partir del qual es va desenvolupar l’EASI (Evaluación del Abuso Sexual Infantojuvenil) i l’Entrevista Cognitiva (EC) de Fisher i Geiselman. La hipòtesi de partida vol comprovar si els anteriors models permeten obtenir volums informatius diferents en infants preescolars. Conseqüentment, els objectius han estat determinar quin dels models d’entrevista permet obtenir un volum informatiu amb més precisions i menys errors, dissenyar un model d’entrevista propi i consensuar aquest model. En el treball s’afegeixen esquemes pràctics que facilitin l’obertura, desenvolupament i tancament de l’entrevista forense. La metodologia ha reproduït el binomi infant - esdeveniment traumàtic, mitjançant la visualització i l’explicació d’un fet emocionalment significatiu amb facilitat per identificar-se: l’accident en bicicleta d’un infant que cau, es fa mal, sagna i el seu pare el cura. A partir d’aquí, hem entrevistat 135 infants de P3, P4 i P5, mitjançant els 3 models d’entrevista referits, enfrontant-los a una demanda específica: recordar i narrar aquest esdeveniment. S’ha conclòs que el nivell de record correcte, quan s’utilitza un model d’entrevista adequat amb els infants en edat preescolar, oscil•la entre el 70-90%, fet que permet defensar la confiança en els records dels infants. Es constata que el percentatge d’emissions incorrectes dels infants en edat preescolar és mínim, al voltant d’un 5-6%. L’estudi remarca la necessitat d’establir perfectament les regles de l’entrevista i, per últim, en destaca la ineficàcia de les tècniques de memòria de l’entrevista cognitiva en els infants de P3 i P4. En els de P5 es comencen a veure beneficis gràcies a la tècnica de la reinstauració contextual (RC), estant les altres tècniques fora de la comprensió i utilització dels infants d’aquestes edats. Interviewing preschoolers victims of sexual abuse and/or domestic abuse: Effectiveness of forensic interviews models 135 preschool children were interviewed with 3 different interview models in order to remember a significant emotional event. Authors conclude that the correct recall of children ranging from 70-90% and the percentage of error messages is 5-6%. It is necessary to fully establish the rules of the interview. The present research highlights the effectiveness of the cognitive interview techniques in children from P3 and P4. Entrevistando niños preescolares víctimas de abuso sexual y/o maltrato familiar: eficacia de los modelos de entrevista forense Se han entrevistado 135 niños preescolares con 3 modelos de entrevista diferentes para recordar un hecho emocionalmente significativo. Se concluye que el recuerdo correcto de los niños oscila entre el 70-90% y el porcentaje de errores de mensajes es del 5-6%. El estudio remarca la necesidad de establecer perfectamente las reglas de la entrevista y se destaca la ineficacia de las técnicas de la entrevista cognitiva en los niños de P3 y P4.

Three-dimensional models of 14α-sterol demethylase (Cyp51A) from Aspergillus lentulus and Aspergillus fumigatus: an insight into differences in voriconazole interaction.

Aspergillus lentulus, an Aspergillus fumigatus sibling species, is increasingly reported in corticosteroid-treated patients. Its clinical significance is unknown, but the fact that A. lentulus shows reduced antifungal susceptibility, mainly to voriconazole, is of serious concern. Heterologous expression of cyp51A from A. fumigatus and A. lentulus was performed in Saccharomyces cerevisiae to assess differences in the interaction of Cyp51A with the azole drugs. The absence of endogenous ERG11 was efficiently complemented in S. cerevisiae by the expression of either Aspergillus cyp51A allele. There was a marked difference between azole minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) values of the clones expressing each Aspergillus spp. cyp51A. Saccharomyces cerevisiae clones expressing A. lentulus alleles showed higher MICs to all of the azoles tested, supporting the hypothesis that the intrinsic azole resistance of A. lentulus could be associated with Cyp51A. Homology models of A. fumigatus and A. lentulus Cyp51A protein based on the crystal structure of Cyp51p from Mycobacterium tuberculosis in complex with fluconazole were almost identical owing to their mutual high sequence identity. Molecular dynamics (MD) was applied to both three-dimensional protein models to refine the homology modelling and to explore possible differences in the Cyp51A-voriconazole interaction. After 20ns of MD modelling, some critical differences were observed in the putative closed form adopted by the protein upon voriconazole binding. A closer study of the A. fumigatus and A. lentulus voriconazole putative binding site in Cyp51A suggested that some major differences in the protein's BC loop could differentially affect the lock-up of voriconazole, which in turn could correlate with their different azole susceptibility profiles.

Des hommes en mouvement : vers une reconfiguration des modèles masculins? L'exemple de la Suisse

This project is a study of the men's movement in Switzerland, especially regarding organizations seeking to redefine male identity. So far, this topic has been understudied, in Switzerland. The few studies available on the subject mostly adopt a (pro)feminist perspective. Their main purpose is to criticize men's movement participants. What is more, scarce researches on this problem mostly conducted by members of the Swiss men's movement themselves are mainly descriptive and methodologically problematic. In this context, I initiated the first national and sociological study of the men's movement in Switzerland. My main goals are: firstly, to propose a typology of organizations forming the men's movement in Switzerland. Secondly, I develop a sociological analysis of this phenomenon, taking into account in this process especially the characteristics of the Swiss context. Consequently, I adopted a mixed method approach, which included two main research steps: Firstly, I defined a representative sample of men's movement organizations in Switzerland. Based on a content analysis of men's organizations' websites, I was able to distinguish three ideal-types: Radical Criticism of Masculinity, Criticism of Hegemonic Masculinity, Defense of Men and Traditional Masculinity. Based on these three concepts, I subsequently analyzed the discourse on masculinity amongst men's movement organizations. Secondly, I conducted a survey of men's movement participants. This survey was based on the results of the content analysis. In this particular stage, I mainly used factor analysis. My results show that it would be all too simplistic to characterize the men's movement, in Switzerland, as a criticism of women's emancipation. On the contrary, my analysis reveals a more complex picture: The two main factors, which influence the men's movement, in Switzerland, are the contemporary sociological context and the Swiss society's particular features. I find that male roles, on the one hand, depend very much on today's cultural shift from materialistic to self-expression values. On the other hand, male role models reflect a social adaptation process. Moreover, as a reaction to deep changes in contemporary family structures, I observe an individualization process, characterized by separation between parental and conjugal functions that greatly shapes male role models. - Cette thèse analyse le phénomène des hommes en mouvement, dans le contexte de la Suisse. Cet ensemble est formé d'organisations regroupant des hommes impliqués consciemment dans un processus d'actions et de réflexions sur l'identité masculine. La revue de la littérature révèle qu'en Suisse, le sujet des hommes en mouvement est très peu étudié. Jusqu'ici, les rares recherches s'y intéressant adoptent généralement une approche (pro)féministe, dont l'objectif est de dénoncer ce phénomène. En outre, de rares recherches, issues des acteurs mêmes de ce mouvement, proposent une vue descriptive de l'ensemble, mais souffrant de faiblesses méthodologiques. Par notre recherche, nous souhaitons contribuer à l'étude de ce sujet, en initiant la première étude d'envergure nationale portant sur les hommes en mouvement. L'objectif final est de déboucher sur une typologie des organisations réunissant les hommes en mouvement, puis sur une analyse de la spécificité de cet ensemble, dans le contexte suisse. Pour remplir ces objectifs, nous avons mis en place un dispositif de méthodes mixtes, en deux phases. Lors d'une première étape, nous avons sélectionné un échantillon représentatif de la diversité des organisations masculines. Par une analyse de contenu effectuée sur la documentation récoltée sur les sites Internet de ces dernières, nous avons pu, en utilisant une démarche inductive et qualitative, faire émerger trois idéaux-types : Critique radicale de la masculinité, Critique de la masculinité hégémonique, Défense des hommes et de la masculinité traditionnelle. Ces concepts permettent de rendre compte, de manière schématique, des trois types de discours contemporains sur l'identité masculine diffusés par les hommes en mouvement. Lors d'une seconde étape, nous avons réalisé une enquête auprès des membres des organisations masculines. Pour y parvenir, nous avons créé un questionnaire incluant des propositions élaborées à partir des résultats de l'étape précédente. Lors de cette phase, nous avons réalisé une analyse factorielle. Les résultats montrent que le phénomène du mouvement des hommes ne saurait se réduire, en Suisse, à un mouvement de ressac visant à attaquer les droits des femmes. Au contraire, il s'agit d'un phénomène complexe, fortement dépendant du contexte sociologique contemporain et des caractéristiques de la société helvétique. Nous affirmons, entre autres, que les modèles masculins observables dans cet ensemble sont façonnés, d'une part, par une transition culturelle, caractérisée par le passage des valeurs matérialistes aux valeurs d'expression de soi. D'autre part, les modèles masculins prônés par les hommes en mouvement reflètent un processus d'adaptation sociale. En effet, en réaction au contexte de reconfiguration des formes familiales, on assiste à une individualisation des rapports de filiation et au détachement de la fonction parentale et conjugale, qui imprègnent fortement les modèles masculins défendus par ces hommes.

Systems biology of plants : from intraspecific genome variation to computational morphodynamics

Recently, the introduction of second generation sequencing and further advance-ments in confocal microscopy have enabled system-level studies for the functional characterization of genes. The degree of complexity intrinsic to these approaches needs the development of bioinformatics methodologies and computational models for extracting meaningful biological knowledge from the enormous amount of experi¬mental data which is continuously generated. This PhD thesis presents several novel bioinformatics methods and computational models to address specific biological questions in Plant Biology by using the plant Arabidopsis thaliana as a model system. First, a spatio-temporal qualitative analysis of quantitative transcript and protein profiles is applied to show the role of the BREVIS RADIX (BRX) protein in the auxin- cytokinin crosstalk for root meristem growth. Core of this PhD work is the functional characterization of the interplay between the BRX protein and the plant hormone auxin in the root meristem by using a computational model based on experimental evidence. Hyphotesis generated by the modelled to the discovery of a differential endocytosis pattern in the root meristem that splits the auxin transcriptional response via the plasma membrane to nucleus partitioning of BRX. This positional information system creates an auxin transcriptional pattern that deviates from the canonical auxin response and is necessary to sustain the expression of a subset of BRX-dependent auxin-responsive genes to drive root meristem growth. In the second part of this PhD thesis, we characterized the genome-wide impact of large scale deletions on four divergent Arabidopsis natural strains, through the integration of Ultra-High Throughput Sequencing data with data from genomic hybridizations on tiling arrays. Analysis of the identified deletions revealed a considerable portion of protein coding genes affected and supported a history of genomic rearrangements shaped by evolution. In the last part of the thesis, we showed that VIP3 gene in Arabidopsis has an evo-lutionary conserved role in the 3' to 5' mRNA degradation machinery, by applying a novel approach for the analysis of mRNA-Seq data from random-primed mRNA. Altogether, this PhD research contains major advancements in the study of natural genomic variation in plants and in the application of computational morphodynamics models for the functional characterization of biological pathways essential for the plant. - Récemment, l'introduction du séquençage de seconde génération et les avancées dans la microscopie confocale ont permis des études à l'échelle des différents systèmes cellulaires pour la caractérisation fonctionnelle de gènes. Le degrés de complexité intrinsèque à ces approches ont requis le développement de méthodologies bioinformatiques et de modèles mathématiques afin d'extraire de la masse de données expérimentale générée, des information biologiques significatives. Ce doctorat présente à la fois des méthodes bioinformatiques originales et des modèles mathématiques pour répondre à certaines questions spécifiques de Biologie Végétale en utilisant la plante Arabidopsis thaliana comme modèle. Premièrement, une analyse qualitative spatio-temporelle de profiles quantitatifs de transcripts et de protéines est utilisée pour montrer le rôle de la protéine BREVIS RADIX (BRX) dans le dialogue entre l'auxine et les cytokinines, des phytohormones, dans la croissance du méristème racinaire. Le noyau de ce travail de thèse est la caractérisation fonctionnelle de l'interaction entre la protéine BRX et la phytohormone auxine dans le méristème de la racine en utilisant des modèles informatiques basés sur des preuves expérimentales. Les hypothèses produites par le modèle ont mené à la découverte d'un schéma différentiel d'endocytose dans le méristème racinaire qui divise la réponse transcriptionnelle à l'auxine par le partitionnement de BRX de la membrane plasmique au noyau de la cellule. Cette information positionnelle crée une réponse transcriptionnelle à l'auxine qui dévie de la réponse canonique à l'auxine et est nécessaire pour soutenir l'expression d'un sous ensemble de gènes répondant à l'auxine et dépendant de BRX pour conduire la croissance du méristème. Dans la seconde partie de cette thèse de doctorat, nous avons caractérisé l'impact sur l'ensemble du génome des délétions à grande échelle sur quatre souches divergentes naturelles d'Arabidopsis, à travers l'intégration du séquençage à ultra-haut-débit avec l'hybridation génomique sur puces ADN. L'analyse des délétions identifiées a révélé qu'une proportion considérable de gènes codant était affectée, supportant l'idée d'un historique de réarrangement génomique modelé durant l'évolution. Dans la dernière partie de cette thèse, nous avons montré que le gène VÏP3 dans Arabidopsis a conservé un rôle évolutif dans la machinerie de dégradation des ARNm dans le sens 3' à 5', en appliquant une nouvelle approche pour l'analyse des données de séquençage d'ARNm issue de transcripts amplifiés aléatoirement. Dans son ensemble, cette recherche de doctorat contient des avancées majeures dans l'étude des variations génomiques naturelles des plantes et dans l'application de modèles morphodynamiques informatiques pour la caractérisation de réseaux biologiques essentiels à la plante. - Le développement des plantes est écrit dans leurs codes génétiques. Pour comprendre comment les plantes sont capables de s'adapter aux changements environnementaux, il est essentiel d'étudier comment leurs gènes gouvernent leur formation. Plus nous essayons de comprendre le fonctionnement d'une plante, plus nous réalisons la complexité des mécanismes biologiques, à tel point que l'utilisation d'outils et de modèles mathématiques devient indispensable. Dans ce travail, avec l'utilisation de la plante modèle Arabidopsis thalicinci nous avons résolu des problèmes biologiques spécifiques à travers le développement et l'application de méthodes informatiques concrètes. Dans un premier temps, nous avons investigué comment le gène BREVIS RADIX (BRX) régule le développement de la racine en contrôlant la réponse à deux hormones : l'auxine et la cytokinine. Nous avons employé une analyse statistique sur des mesures quantitatives de transcripts et de produits de gènes afin de démontrer que BRX joue un rôle antagonisant dans le dialogue entre ces deux hormones. Lorsque ce-dialogue moléculaire est perturbé, la racine primaire voit sa longueur dramatiquement réduite. Pour comprendre comment BRX répond à l'auxine, nous avons développé un modèle informatique basé sur des résultats expérimentaux. Les simulations successives ont mené à la découverte d'un signal positionnel qui contrôle la réponse de la racine à l'auxine par la régulation du mouvement intracellulaire de BRX. Dans la seconde partie de cette thèse, nous avons analysé le génome entier de quatre souches naturelles d'Arabidopsis et nous avons trouvé qu'une grande partie de leurs gènes étaient manquant par rapport à la souche de référence. Ce résultat indique que l'historique des modifications génomiques conduites par l'évolution détermine une disponibilité différentielle des gènes fonctionnels dans ces plantes. Dans la dernière partie de ce travail, nous avons analysé les données du transcriptome de la plante où le gène VIP3 était non fonctionnel. Ceci nous a permis de découvrir le rôle double de VIP3 dans la régulation de l'initiation de la transcription et dans la dégradation des transcripts. Ce rôle double n'avait jusqu'alors été démontrée que chez l'homme. Ce travail de doctorat supporte le développement et l'application de méthodologies informatiques comme outils inestimables pour résoudre la complexité des problèmes biologiques dans la recherche végétale. L'intégration de la biologie végétale et l'informatique est devenue de plus en plus importante pour l'avancée de nos connaissances sur le fonctionnement et le développement des plantes.

Predictive models of syncope causes in an outpatient clinic

The investigation of unexplained syncope remains a challenging clinical problem. In the present study we sought to evaluate the diagnostic value of a standardized work-up focusing on non invasive tests in patients with unexplained syncope referred to a syncope clinic, and whether certain combinations of clinical parameters are characteristic of rhythmic and reflex causes of syncope. METHODS AND RESULTS: 317 consecutive patients underwent a standardized work-up including a 12-lead ECG, physical examination, detailed history with screening for syncope-related symptoms using a structured questionnaire followed by carotid sinus massage (CSM), and head-up tilt test. Invasive testings including an electrophysiological study and implantation of a loop recorder were only performed in those with structural heart disease or traumatic syncope. Our work-up identified an etiology in 81% of the patients. Importantly, three quarters of the causes were established non invasively combining head-up tilt test, CSM and hyperventilation testing. Invasive tests yielded an additional 7% of diagnoses. Logistic analysis identified age and number of significant prodromes as the only predictive factors of rhythmic syncope. The same two factors, in addition to the duration of the ECG P-wave, were also predictive of vasovagal and psychogenic syncope. These factors, optimally combined in predictive models, showed a high negative and a modest positive predictive value. CONCLUSION: A standardized work-up focusing on non invasive tests allows to establish more than three quarters of syncope causes. Predictive models based on simple clinical parameters may help to distinguish between rhythmic and other causes of syncope

Multi-stage oligopoly models with nested logit demand structures: A simplifying approach

Solving multi-stage oligopoly models by backward induction can easily become a com- plex task when rms are multi-product and demands are derived from a nested logit frame- work. This paper shows that under the assumption that within-segment rm shares are equal across segments, the analytical expression for equilibrium pro ts can be substantially simpli ed. The size of the error arising when this condition does not hold perfectly is also computed. Through numerical examples, it is shown that the error is rather small in general. Therefore, using this assumption allows to gain analytical tractability in a class of models that has been used to approach relevant policy questions, such as for example rm entry in an industry or the relation between competition and location. The simplifying approach proposed in this paper is aimed at helping improving these type of models for reaching more accurate recommendations.

Benefici de la Simvastatina en el tractament trombolític combinat de l’ictus en models d’ isquèmia cerebral en rata

L’ictus és un dels reptes sanitaris més importants al nostre país ja que l’únic tractament disponible és l’administració de trombolítics durant les 4,5 primeres hores i menys d’un 10% dels pacients poden beneficiar-se’n. Publicacions anteriors han demostrat que el tractament de l’ictus amb estatines pot reduir l’extensió del teixit infartat i millorar la funció neurològica, per això proposem fer un estudi experimental usant un model d’isquèmia en rata, que evidenciï si el tractament combinat de Simvastatina i rt-PA incrementa el benefici obtingut únicament amb fàrmacs trombolítics i avaluï la seva seguretat quan s’administra durant la fase aguda (transformacions hemorràgiques i incidència d’infeccions).

Developmental and pathological lymphangiogenesis: from models to human disease.

The lymphatic vascular system, the body's second vascular system present in vertebrates, has emerged in recent years as a crucial player in normal and pathological processes. It participates in the maintenance of normal tissue fluid balance, the immune functions of cellular and antigen trafficking and absorption of fatty acids and lipid-soluble vitamins in the gut. Recent scientific discoveries have highlighted the role of lymphatic system in a number of pathologic conditions, including lymphedema, inflammatory diseases, and tumor metastasis. Development of genetically modified animal models, identification of lymphatic endothelial specific markers and regulators coupled with technological advances such as high-resolution imaging and genome-wide approaches have been instrumental in understanding the major steps controlling growth and remodeling of lymphatic vessels. This review highlights the recent insights and developments in the field of lymphatic vascular biology.

Evaluating the ability of habitat suitability models to predict species presences.

Models predicting species spatial distribution are increasingly applied to wildlife management issues, emphasising the need for reliable methods to evaluate the accuracy of their predictions. As many available datasets (e.g. museums, herbariums, atlas) do not provide reliable information about species absences, several presence-only based analyses have been developed. However, methods to evaluate the accuracy of their predictions are few and have never been validated. The aim of this paper is to compare existing and new presenceonly evaluators to usual presence/absence measures. We use a reliable, diverse, presence/absence dataset of 114 plant species to test how common presence/absence indices (Kappa, MaxKappa, AUC, adjusted D-2) compare to presenceonly measures (AVI, CVI, Boyce index) for evaluating generalised linear models (GLM). Moreover we propose a new, threshold-independent evaluator, which we call "continuous Boyce index". All indices were implemented in the B10MAPPER software. We show that the presence-only evaluators are fairly correlated (p > 0.7) to the presence/absence ones. The Boyce indices are closer to AUC than to MaxKappa and are fairly insensitive to species prevalence. In addition, the Boyce indices provide predicted-toexpected ratio curves that offer further insights into the model quality: robustness, habitat suitability resolution and deviation from randomness. This information helps reclassifying predicted maps into meaningful habitat suitability classes. The continuous Boyce index is thus both a complement to usual evaluation of presence/absence models and a reliable measure of presence-only based predictions.

Discrete time Non-homogeneous Semi-Markov Processes applied to Models for Disability Insurance

In this paper, we present a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts. The model is based on a discrete time non-homogeneous semi-Markov process (DTNHSMP) to which the backward recurrence time process is introduced. This permits a more exhaustive study of disability evolution and a more efficient approach to the duration problem. The use of semi-Markov reward processes facilitates the possibility of deriving equations of the prospective and retrospective mathematical reserves. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.