Evidence Suggesting that Ivory-billed Woodpeckers (Campephilus principalis) Exist in Florida

The Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis) disappeared from the forests of southeastern North America in the early 20th Century and for more than 50 years has been widely considered extinct. On 21 May 2005, we detected a bird that we identified as an Ivory-billed Woodpecker in the mature swamp forest along the Choctawhatchee River in the panhandle of Florida. During a subsequent year of research, members of our small search team observed birds that we identified as Ivory-billed Woodpeckers on 14 occasions. We heard sounds that matched descriptions of Ivory-billed Woodpecker acoustic signals on 41 occasions. We recorded 99 putative double knocks and 210 putative kent calls. We located cavities in the size range reported for Ivory-billed Woodpeckers and larger than those of Pileated Woodpeckers (Dryocopus pileatus) that have been reported in the literature or that we measured in Alabama. We documented unique foraging signs consistent with the feeding behavior of Ivory-billed Woodpeckers. Our evidence suggests that Ivory-billed Woodpeckers may be present in the forests along the Choctawhatchee River and warrants an expanded search of this bottomland forest habitat.

Stand and within-stand factors influencing Golden-winged Warbler use of regenerating stands in the central Appalachian Mountains

The Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera) is currently being considered for protected status under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The creation of breeding habitat in the Appalachian Mountains is considered a conservation priority for this songbird, which is dependent on extensively forested landscapes with adequate availability of young forest. We modeled abundance of Golden-winged Warbler males in regenerating harvested forest stands that were 0-17 years postharvest at both mid-Appalachian and northeast Pennsylvania regional scales using stand and within-stand characteristics of 222 regenerating stands, 2010-2011. Variables that were most influential at the mid-Appalachian scale were different than those in the northeast region. Across the mid-Appalachian ecoregion, the proportion of young forest cover, i.e., shrub/scrub cover, within 1 km of regenerating stands best explained abundance of Golden-winged Warblers. Golden-winged Warbler response was best explained by a concave quadratic relationship in which abundance was highest with 5-15% land in young forest cover. We also found evidence that the amount of herbaceous cover, i.e., the amount of grasses and forbs, within a regenerating stand positively influenced abundance of Golden-winged Warblers. In northeastern Pennsylvania, where young forest cover is found in high proportions, the distance to the nearest regenerating stand best explained variation in abundance of Golden-winged Warblers. Abundance of Golden-winged Warblers was <1 male per survey when another regenerating stand was >1500 m away. When modeling within-stand features in the northeast region, many of the models were closely ranked, indicating that multiple variables likely explained Golden-winged Warbler response to within-stand conditions. Based on our findings, we have proposed several management guidelines for land managers interested in creating breeding habitat for Golden-winged Warblers using commercial timber operations. For example, we recommend when managing for Golden-winged Warblers in the central Appalachian Mountains that managers should strive for 15% young forest in a heavily forested landscape (>70% forest cover) and cluster stands within 1-2 km of other young forest habitats.

A new perspective on Southern hemisphere storm-tracks.

A detailed view of Southern Hemisphere storm tracks is obtained based on the application of filtered variance and modern feature-tracking techniques to a wide range of 45-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data. It has been checked that the conclusions drawn in this study are valid even if data from only the satellite era are used. The emphasis of the paper is on the winter season, but results for the four seasons are also discussed. Both upper- and lower-tropospheric fields are used. The tracking analysis focuses on systems that last longer than 2 days and are mobile (move more than 1000 km). Many of the results support previous ideas about the storm tracks, but some new insights are also obtained. In the summer there is a rather circular, strong, deep high-latitude storm track. In winter the high-latitude storm track is more asymmetric with a spiral from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans in toward Antarctica and a subtropical jet–related lower-latitude storm track over the Pacific, again tending to spiral poleward. At all times of the year, maximum storm activity in the higher-latitude storm track is in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean regions. In the winter upper troposphere, the relative importance of, and interplay between, the subtropical and subpolar storm tracks is discussed. The genesis, lysis, and growth rate of lower-tropospheric winter cyclones together lead to a vivid picture of their behavior that is summarized as a set of overlapping plates, each composed of cyclone life cycles. Systems in each plate appear to feed the genesis in the next plate through downstream development in the upper-troposphere spiral storm track. In the lee of the Andes in South America, there is cyclogenesis associated with the subtropical jet and also, poleward of this, cyclogenesis largely associated with system decay on the upslope and regeneration on the downslope. The genesis and lysis of cyclones and anticyclones have a definite spatial relationship with each other and with the Andes. At 500 hPa, their relative longitudinal positions are consistent with vortex-stretching ideas for simple flow over a large-scale mountain. Cyclonic systems near Antarctica have generally spiraled in from lower latitudes. However, cyclogenesis associated with mobile cyclones occurs around the Antarctic coast with an interesting genesis maximum over the sea ice near 150°E. The South Pacific storm track emerges clearly from the tracking as a coherent deep feature spiraling from Australia to southern South America. A feature of the summer season is the genesis of eastward-moving cyclonic systems near the tropic of Capricorn off Brazil, in the central Pacific and, to a lesser extent, off Madagascar, followed by movement along the southwest flanks of the subtropical anticyclones and contribution to the “convergence zone” cloud bands seen in these regions.

Sensitivity of feature-based analysis methods of storm tracks to the form of background field removal

For the tracking of extrema associated with weather systems to be applied to a broad range of fields it is necessary to remove a background field that represents the slowly varying, large spatial scales. The sensitivity of the tracking analysis to the form of background field removed is explored for the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks for three contrasting fields from an integration of the U. K. Met Office's (UKMO) Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadAM3). Several methods are explored for the removal of a background field from the simple subtraction of the climatology, to the more sophisticated removal of the planetary scales. Two temporal filters are also considered in the form of a 2-6-day Lanczos filter and a 20-day high-pass Fourier filter. The analysis indicates that the simple subtraction of the climatology tends to change the nature of the systems to the extent that there is a redistribution of the systems relative to the climatological background resulting in very similar statistical distributions for both positive and negative anomalies. The optimal planetary wave filter removes total wavenumbers less than or equal to a number in the range 5-7, resulting in distributions more easily related to particular types of weather system. For the temporal filters the 2-6-day bandpass filter is found to have a detrimental impact on the individual weather systems, resulting in the storm tracks having a weak waveguide type of behavior. The 20-day high-pass temporal filter is less aggressive than the 2-6-day filter and produces results falling between those of the climatological and 2-6-day filters.

A comparison of recent reanalysis datasets using objective feature tracking: Storm tracks and tropical easterly waves

Data from four recent reanalysis projects [ECMWF, NCEP-NCAR, NCEP - Department of Energy ( DOE), NASA] have been diagnosed at the scale of synoptic weather systems using an objective feature tracking method. The tracking statistics indicate that, overall, the reanalyses correspond very well in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) lower troposphere, although differences for the spatial distribution of mean intensities show that the ECMWF reanalysis is systematically stronger in the main storm track regions but weaker around major orographic features. A direct comparison of the track ensembles indicates a number of systems with a broad range of intensities that compare well among the reanalyses. In addition, a number of small-scale weak systems are found that have no correspondence among the reanalyses or that only correspond upon relaxing the matching criteria, indicating possible differences in location and/or temporal coherence. These are distributed throughout the storm tracks, particularly in the regions known for small-scale activity, such as secondary development regions and the Mediterranean. For the Southern Hemisphere (SH), agreement is found to be generally less consistent in the lower troposphere with significant differences in both track density and mean intensity. The systems that correspond between the various reanalyses are considerably reduced and those that do not match span a broad range of storm intensities. Relaxing the matching criteria indicates that there is a larger degree of uncertainty in both the location of systems and their intensities compared with the NH. At upper-tropospheric levels, significant differences in the level of activity occur between the ECMWF reanalysis and the other reanalyses in both the NH and SH winters. This occurs due to a lack of coherence in the apparent propagation of the systems in ERA15 and appears most acute above 500 hPa. This is probably due to the use of optimal interpolation data assimilation in ERA15. Also shown are results based on using the same techniques to diagnose the tropical easterly wave activity. Results indicate that the wave activity is sensitive not only to the resolution and assimilation methods used but also to the model formulation.