Probabilistic evidential assessment of gunshot residue particle evidence (Part II) : Bayesian parameter estimation for experimental count data.

Part I of this series of articles focused on the construction of graphical probabilistic inference procedures, at various levels of detail, for assessing the evidential value of gunshot residue (GSR) particle evidence. The proposed models - in the form of Bayesian networks - address the issues of background presence of GSR particles, analytical performance (i.e., the efficiency of evidence searching and analysis procedures) and contamination. The use and practical implementation of Bayesian networks for case pre-assessment is also discussed. This paper, Part II, concentrates on Bayesian parameter estimation. This topic complements Part I in that it offers means for producing estimates useable for the numerical specification of the proposed probabilistic graphical models. Bayesian estimation procedures are given a primary focus of attention because they allow the scientist to combine (his/her) prior knowledge about the problem of interest with newly acquired experimental data. The present paper also considers further topics such as the sensitivity of the likelihood ratio due to uncertainty in parameters and the study of likelihood ratio values obtained for members of particular populations (e.g., individuals with or without exposure to GSR).

Auditory-visual multisensory interactions in humans: timing, topography, directionality, and sources.

Current models of brain organization include multisensory interactions at early processing stages and within low-level, including primary, cortices. Embracing this model with regard to auditory-visual (AV) interactions in humans remains problematic. Controversy surrounds the application of an additive model to the analysis of event-related potentials (ERPs), and conventional ERP analysis methods have yielded discordant latencies of effects and permitted limited neurophysiologic interpretability. While hemodynamic imaging and transcranial magnetic stimulation studies provide general support for the above model, the precise timing, superadditive/subadditive directionality, topographic stability, and sources remain unresolved. We recorded ERPs in humans to attended, but task-irrelevant stimuli that did not require an overt motor response, thereby circumventing paradigmatic caveats. We applied novel ERP signal analysis methods to provide details concerning the likely bases of AV interactions. First, nonlinear interactions occur at 60-95 ms after stimulus and are the consequence of topographic, rather than pure strength, modulations in the ERP. AV stimuli engage distinct configurations of intracranial generators, rather than simply modulating the amplitude of unisensory responses. Second, source estimations (and statistical analyses thereof) identified primary visual, primary auditory, and posterior superior temporal regions as mediating these effects. Finally, scalar values of current densities in all of these regions exhibited functionally coupled, subadditive nonlinear effects, a pattern increasingly consistent with the mounting evidence in nonhuman primates. In these ways, we demonstrate how neurophysiologic bases of multisensory interactions can be noninvasively identified in humans, allowing for a synthesis across imaging methods on the one hand and species on the other.

Distortion control for delay-sensitive sources

We investigate the problem of finding minimum-distortion policies for streaming delay-sensitive but distortion-tolerant data. We consider cross-layer approaches which exploit the coupling between presentation and transport layers. We make the natural assumption that the distortion function is convex and decreasing. We focus on a single source-destination pair and analytically find the optimum transmission policy when the transmission is done over an error-free channel. This optimum policy turns out to be independent of the exact form of the convex and decreasing distortion function. Then, for a packet-erasure channel, we analytically find the optimum open-loop transmission policy, which is also independent of the form of the convex distortion function. We then find computationally efficient closed-loop heuristic policies and show, through numerical evaluation, that they outperform the open-loop policy and have near optimal performance.

Causal explanations and scientific realism in particle physics

Particle physics studies highly complex processes which cannot be directly observed. Scientific realism claims that we are nevertheless warranted in believing that these processes really occur and that the objects involved in them really exist. This dissertation defends a version of scientific realism, called causal realism, in the context of particle physics. I start by introducing the central theses and arguments in the recent philosophical debate on scientific realism (chapter 1), with a special focus on an important presupposition of the debate, namely common sense realism. Chapter 2 then discusses entity realism, which introduces a crucial element into the debate by emphasizing the importance of experiments in defending scientific realism. Most of the chapter is concerned with Ian Hacking's position, but I also argue that Nancy Cartwright's version of entity realism is ultimately preferable as a basis for further development. In chapter 3,1 take a step back and consider the question whether the realism debate is worth pursuing at all. Arthur Fine has given a negative answer to that question, proposing his natural ontologica! attitude as an alternative to both realism and antirealism. I argue that the debate (in particular the realist side of it) is in fact less vicious than Fine presents it. The second part of my work (chapters 4-6) develops, illustrates and defends causal realism. The key idea is that inference to the best explanation is reliable in some cases, but not in others. Chapter 4 characterizes the difference between these two kinds of cases in terms of three criteria which distinguish causal from theoretical warrant. In order to flesh out this distinction, chapter 5 then applies it to a concrete case from the history of particle physics, the discovery of the neutrino. This case study shows that the distinction between causal and theoretical warrant is crucial for understanding what it means to "directly detect" a new particle. But the distinction is also an effective tool against what I take to be the presently most powerful objection to scientific realism: Kyle Stanford's argument from unconceived alternatives. I respond to this argument in chapter 6, and I illustrate my response with a discussion of Jean Perrin's experimental work concerning the atomic hypothesis. In the final part of the dissertation, I turn to the specific challenges posed to realism by quantum theories. One of these challenges comes from the experimental violations of Bell's inequalities, which indicate a failure of locality in the quantum domain. I show in chapter 7 how causal realism can further our understanding of quantum non-locality by taking account of some recent experimental results. Another challenge to realism in quantum mechanics comes from delayed-choice experiments, which seem to imply that certain aspects of what happens in an experiment can be influenced by later choices of the experimenter. Chapter 8 analyzes these experiments and argues that they do not warrant the antirealist conclusions which some commentators draw from them. It pays particular attention to the case of delayed-choice entanglement swapping and the corresponding question whether entanglement is a real physical relation. In chapter 9,1 finally address relativistic quantum theories. It is often claimed that these theories are incompatible with a particle ontology, and this calls into question causal realism's commitment to localizable and countable entities. I defend the commitments of causal realism against these objections, and I conclude with some remarks connecting the interpretation of quantum field theory to more general metaphysical issues confronting causal realism.

Avaruusinstrumentin mekaniikkasuunnittelu

Tämän insinöörityön tarkoituksena on kehittää avaruusinstrumentti, joka on osa Euroopan avaruusjärjestön ESA:n ja Japanin avaruusjärjestön JAXA:n BepiColombo-yhteistyöhanketta. Satelliitti lähetetään Merkurius-planeetan kiertoradalle vuonna 2013. Avaruusaluksen matka Merkuriukseen kestää yhteensä kuusi vuotta ja on perillä vuonna 2019. Yksi BepiColombo-satelliitin tieteellisistä instrumenteista on Oxford Instruments Analytical Oy:n kehittämä SIXS-instrumentti (Solar Intensity X-ray and particle Spectrometer). Instrumentin tarkoituksena on mitata auringosta tulevaa röntgen- ja partikkelisäteilyä. Se toimii yhteistyössä Merkuriuksen pintaa mittaavan MIXS-instrumentin (Mercury Imaging X-ray Spectrometer) kanssa. Tuloksista pystytään analysoimaan ne alkuaineet, joista Merkuriuksen pinta koostuu. Työn alussa esitellään teoriataustaa alkuaineiden mittauksesta niiltä osin, kuin se tämän työn kannalta on tarpeellista. Työssä syvennytään tarkemmin auringosta tulevan säteilyn mittauksesta vastaavan instrumentin tekniikkaan ja mekaniikkasuunnitteluun. Instrumentin lämpöteknisestä suunnittelusta, värähtelymittauksista ja lujuusanalyysista on työhön sisällytetty pääasiat. Työn tuloksena on kehitetty instrumenttiin tulevan partikkelidetektorin prototyyppi sekä instrumenttikotelon malli. Lopullisen koon instrumenttikotelolle määrittää vaadittavan elektroniikan viemä tila. Mittalaitteen kehitystyö jatkuu Oxford Instruments Analytical Oy:ssä vuoteen 2011 saakka.

Hierarchical management of carbon sources is regulated similarly by the CbrA/B systems in Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Pseudomonas putida.

The CbrA/B system in pseudomonads is involved in the utilization of carbon sources and carbon catabolite repression (CCR) through the activation of the small RNAs crcZ in Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and crcZ and crcY in Pseudomonas putida. Interestingly, previous works reported that the CbrA/B system activity in P. aeruginosa PAO1 and P. putida KT2442 responded differently to the presence of different carbon sources, thus raising the question of the exact nature of the signal(s) detected by CbrA. Here, we demonstrated that the CbrA/B/CrcZ(Y) signal transduction pathway is similarly activated in the two Pseudomonas species. We show that the CbrA sensor kinase is fully interchangeable between the two species and, moreover, responds similarly to the presence of different carbon sources. In addition, a metabolomics analysis supported the hypothesis that CCR responds to the internal energy status of the cell, as the internal carbon/nitrogen ratio seems to determine CCR and non-CCR conditions. The strong difference found in the 2-oxoglutarate/glutamine ratio between CCR and non-CCR conditions points to the close relationship between carbon and nitrogen availability, or the relationship between the CbrA/B and NtrB/C systems, suggesting that both regulatory systems sense the same sort or interrelated signal.

Sources of comparative advantage in polluting industries

We study the determinants of comparative advantage in polluting industries. We combine data on environmental policy at the country level with data on pollution intensity at the industry level to show that countries with laxer environmental regulation have a comparative advantage in polluting industries. Further, we address the potential problem of reverse causality. We propose an instrument for environmental regulation based on meteorological determinants of pollution dispersion identified by the atmospheric pollution literature. We find that the effect of environmental regulation on the pattern of trade is causal and comparable in magnitude to the effect of physical and human capital.

Toolbox to Address Safety and Operations on School Grounds and Public Streets Adjacent to Elementary and Middle Schools in Iowa, August 2006

This study identified transportation safety issues at existing Iowa school sites through on-site observations, traffic data collection, and through interviews with schools, law enforcement, and traffic engineers. Frequently observed problems, such as crossing at unmarked crosswalks, unloading and loading students on the street side, inattentive student safety patrols, and illegal parking, were documented and solutions were recommended for implementation. The results of the study also conclude that regular communications between school officials, traffic engineers, law enforcement, parents, and school transportation personnel are all critical to promoting safe operations within school zones.

Structural characterization of rockfall sources in Yosemite Valley from remote sensing data and field surveys

Yosemite Valley poses significant rockfall hazard and related risk due to its glacially steepened walls and approximately 4 million visitors annually. To assess rockfall hazard, it is necessary to evaluate the geologic structure that contributes to the destabilization of rockfall sources and locate the most probable future source areas. Coupling new remote sensing techniques (Terrestrial Laser Scanning, Aerial Laser Scanning) and traditional field surveys, we investigated the regional geologic and structural setting, the orientation of the primary discontinuity sets for large areas of Yosemite Valley, and the specific discontinuity sets present at active rockfall sources. This information, combined with better understanding of the geologic processes that contribute to the progressive destabilization and triggering of granitic rock slabs, contributes to a more accurate rockfall susceptibility assessment for Yosemite Valley and elsewhere.