Making political capital:the behaviour of UK financial markets during Election 97

This article examines the behaviour of the UK capital markets during the overnight trading period that coincided with the announcement of the results of the UK general election in May 1997. Evidence that the financial markets responded to the evolving pattern of results is found. In addition, the consensus move experienced as the markets opened the next trading day was influenced by the extent of the moves that had already occurred overnight.

Mobile Election

Mobile phones have the potential of fostering political mobilisation. There is a significant political power in mobile technology. Like the Internet, mobile phones facilitate communication and rapid access to information. Compared to the Internet, however, mobile phone diffusion has reached a larger proportion of the population in most countries, and thus the impact of this new medium is conceivably greater. There are now more mobile phones in the UK than there are people (averaging at 121 mobile phones for every 100 people). In this paper, the attempt to use modern mobile technology to handle the General Election, is discussed. The pre-election advertising, election day issues, including the election news and results as they come in, and answering questions via text message regarding the results of current and/or previous general elections are considered.

Mainstream media behavior analysis on Twitter:a case study on UK general election

With the development of social media tools such as Facebook and Twitter, mainstream media organizations including newspapers and TV media have played an active role in engaging with their audience and strengthening their influence on the recently emerged platforms. In this paper, we analyze the behavior of mainstream media on Twitter and study how they exert their influence to shape public opinion during the UK's 2010 General Election. We first propose an empirical measure to quantify mainstream media bias based on sentiment analysis and show that it correlates better with the actual political bias in the UK media than the pure quantitative measures based on media coverage of various political parties. We then compare the information diffusion patterns from different categories of sources. We found that while mainstream media is good at seeding prominent information cascades, its role in shaping public opinion is being challenged by journalists since tweets from them are more likely to be retweeted and they spread faster and have longer lifespan compared to tweets from mainstream media. Moreover, the political bias of the journalists is a good indicator of the actual election results. Copyright 2013 ACM.

Parties, Mandates and Multilevel Politics : Sub-National Variation in British General Election Manifestos

Earlier versions were presented at the ECPR Joint Sessions Workshop on ‘How and Why of Party Manifestos in New and Established Democracies’, University of St. Gallen, April 2011, and at PSA and EPOP Conferences in 2011. We are grateful to all participants for their feedback, and particularly Bob Harmel and Lars Svasand for their comments and leading this project. We are also grateful to Dai Moon for discussions around Welsh manifestos and highlighting some otherwise unavailable literature. The usual disclaimers naturally apply. Alistair Clark gratefully acknowledges the financial support of a British Academy Overseas Conference Grant, Award Number OC100383 for travel to the 2011 ECPR Joint Sessions. The final definitive version of this paper has been published in Party Politics by SAGE Publications Ltd and is available on the journal website at: http://ppq.sagepub.com/ All Rights Reserved © Alistair Clark and Lynn Bennie.

Election Forecasting under Opaque Conditions

Election forecasting models assume retrospective economic voting and clear mechanisms of accountability. Previous research indeed indicates that incumbent political parties are being held accountable for the state of the economy. In this article we develop a ‘hard case’ for the assumptions of election forecasting models. Belgium is a multiparty system with perennial coalition governments. Furthermore, Belgium has two completely segregated party systems (Dutch and French language). Since the prime minister during the period 1974-2011 has always been a Dutch language politician, French language voters could not even vote for the prime minister, so this cognitive shortcut to establish political accountability is not available. Results of an analysis for the French speaking parties (1981-2010) show that even in these conditions of opaque accountability, retrospective economic voting occurs as election results respond to indicators with regard to GDP and unemployment levels. Party membership figures can be used to model the popularity function in election forecasting.

The contribution of feminist biblical hermeneutics to a theology of ministries

Thèse numérisée par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

Plato's Cretan Colony: Theology and Religion in the Political Philosophy of the Laws

The Laws is generally regarded as Plato’s attempt to engage with the practical realities of political life, as opposed to the more idealistic, or utopian, vision of the Republic. Yet modern scholars have often felt disquieted at the central role of religion in the Laws’ second-best city and regime. There are essentially the two dominant interpretations on offer today: either religion supports a repressive theocracy, which controls every aspect of the citizens’ lives to such an extent that even philosophy itself is discouraged, or religion is an example of the kind of noble lie, which the philosopher must deceive the citizens into believing—viz., that a god, not a man, is the author of the regime’s laws. I argue that neither of these interpretations do justice to the dialogue’s intricately dramatic structure, and therefore to Plato’s treatment of civil religion. What I propose is a third position in which Plato both takes seriously the social and political utility of religion, and views theology as a legitimate, and even necessary, subject of philosophical inquiry without going so far as to advocate theocracy as the second best form of regime.

I conclude that a proper focus on the dialogue form, combined with a careful historical analysis of Plato’s use of social and political institutions, reveals an innovative yet traditional form of civil religion, purified of the harmful influence of the poets, based on the authority of the oracle at Delphi, and grounded on a philosophical conception of god as the eternal source of order, wisdom, and all that is good. Through a union of traditional Delphic theology and Platonic natural theology, Plato gives the city of the Laws a common cult acceptable to philosopher and non-philosopher alike, and thus, not only bridges the gap between religion and philosophy, but also creates a sense of community, political identity, and social harmony—the prerequisites for political order and stability. The political theology of the Laws, therefore, provides a rational defense of the rule of law (νόμος) re-conceived as the application of divine Reason (νοῦς) to human affairs.

Election Quality and International Observation 1975-2004: Two New Datasets

This paper introduces two new datasets on national level elections from 1975 to 2004. The data are grouped into two separate datasets, the Quality of Elections Data and the Data on International Election Monitoring. Together these data sets provide original information on elections, election observation and election quality, and will enable researchers to study a variety of research questions. The datasets will be publicly available and are maintained at a project website.

Creative Destruction: Towards a Theology of Institutions

A theology of institutions is dependent upon an imagination sparked by the cross and shaped by the hope of the resurrection. Creative destruction is the institutional process of dying so that new life might flourish for the sake of others. Relying upon the institutional imagination of James K.A. Smith, the institutional particularity of David Fitch, and L. Gregory Jones’ traditioned innovation, creative destruction becomes a means of institutional discipleship. When an institution practices creative destruction, it learns to remember, imagine, and be present so that it might cultivate habits of faithful innovation. As institutions learn to take up their cross a clearer telos comes into view and collaboration across various organizations becomes possible for a greater good. Institutions that take up the practice of creative destruction can reimagine, reset, restart or resurrect themselves through a kind of dying so that new life can emerge. Creative destruction is an apologetic for an institutional way of being-in-the-world for the sake of all beings-in-the-world.