Improved earthquake response via simulation and integrated space- and ground-based technologies: the TREMOR proposal

Earthquakes occurring around the world each year cause thousands ofdeaths, millions of dollars in damage to infrastructure, and incalculablehuman suffering. In recent years, satellite technology has been asignificant boon to response efforts following an earthquake and itsafter-effects by providing mobile communications between response teamsand remote sensing of damaged areas to disaster management organizations.In 2007, an international team of students and professionals assembledduring theInternational Space University’s Summer Session Program in Beijing, Chinato examine how satellite and ground-based technology could be betterintegrated to provide an optimised response in the event of an earthquake.The resulting Technology Resources for Earthquake MOnitoring and Response(TREMOR) proposal describes an integrative prototype response system thatwill implement mobile satellite communication hubs providing telephone anddata links between response teams, onsite telemedicine consultation foremergency first-responders, and satellite navigation systems that willlocate and track emergency vehicles and guide search-and-rescue crews. Aprototype earthquake simulation system is also proposed, integratinghistorical data, earthquake precursor data, and local geomatics andinfrastructure information to predict the damage that could occur in theevent of an earthquake. The backbone of these proposals is a comprehensiveeducation and training program to help individuals, communities andgovernments prepare in advance. The TREMOR team recommends thecoordination of these efforts through a centralised, non-governmentalorganization.

Evidence-based Economic Policy - Three Essays in Applied Microeconometrics

Over thirty years ago, Leamer (1983) - among many others - expressed doubts about the quality and usefulness of empirical analyses for the economic profession by stating that "hardly anyone takes data analyses seriously. Or perhaps more accurately, hardly anyone takes anyone else's data analyses seriously" (p.37). Improvements in data quality, more robust estimation methods and the evolution of better research designs seem to make that assertion no longer justifiable (see Angrist and Pischke (2010) for a recent response to Leamer's essay). The economic profes- sion and policy makers alike often rely on empirical evidence as a means to investigate policy relevant questions. The approach of using scientifically rigorous and systematic evidence to identify policies and programs that are capable of improving policy-relevant outcomes is known under the increasingly popular notion of evidence-based policy. Evidence-based economic policy often relies on randomized or quasi-natural experiments in order to identify causal effects of policies. These can require relatively strong assumptions or raise concerns of external validity. In the context of this thesis, potential concerns are for example endogeneity of policy reforms with respect to the business cycle in the first chapter, the trade-off between precision and bias in the regression-discontinuity setting in chapter 2 or non-representativeness of the sample due to self-selection in chapter 3. While the identification strategies are very useful to gain insights into the causal effects of specific policy questions, transforming the evidence into concrete policy conclusions can be challenging. Policy develop- ment should therefore rely on the systematic evidence of a whole body of research on a specific policy question rather than on a single analysis. In this sense, this thesis cannot and should not be viewed as a comprehensive analysis of specific policy issues but rather as a first step towards a better understanding of certain aspects of a policy question. The thesis applies new and innovative identification strategies to policy-relevant and topical questions in the fields of labor economics and behavioral environmental economics. Each chapter relies on a different identification strategy. In the first chapter, we employ a difference- in-differences approach to exploit the quasi-experimental change in the entitlement of the max- imum unemployment benefit duration to identify the medium-run effects of reduced benefit durations on post-unemployment outcomes. Shortening benefit duration carries a double- dividend: It generates fiscal benefits without deteriorating the quality of job-matches. On the contrary, shortened benefit durations improve medium-run earnings and employment possibly through containing the negative effects of skill depreciation or stigmatization. While the first chapter provides only indirect evidence on the underlying behavioral channels, in the second chapter I develop a novel approach that allows to learn about the relative impor- tance of the two key margins of job search - reservation wage choice and search effort. In the framework of a standard non-stationary job search model, I show how the exit rate from un- employment can be decomposed in a way that is informative on reservation wage movements over the unemployment spell. The empirical analysis relies on a sharp discontinuity in unem- ployment benefit entitlement, which can be exploited in a regression-discontinuity approach to identify the effects of extended benefit durations on unemployment and survivor functions. I find evidence that calls for an important role of reservation wage choices for job search be- havior. This can have direct implications for the optimal design of unemployment insurance policies. The third chapter - while thematically detached from the other chapters - addresses one of the major policy challenges of the 21st century: climate change and resource consumption. Many governments have recently put energy efficiency on top of their agendas. While pricing instru- ments aimed at regulating the energy demand have often been found to be short-lived and difficult to enforce politically, the focus of energy conservation programs has shifted towards behavioral approaches - such as provision of information or social norm feedback. The third chapter describes a randomized controlled field experiment in which we discuss the effective- ness of different types of feedback on residential electricity consumption. We find that detailed and real-time feedback caused persistent electricity reductions on the order of 3 to 5 % of daily electricity consumption. Also social norm information can generate substantial electricity sav- ings when designed appropriately. The findings suggest that behavioral approaches constitute effective and relatively cheap way of improving residential energy-efficiency.

Immunosuppressive effects of streptozotocin-induced diabetes result in absolute lymphopenia and a relative increase of T regulatory cells.

OBJECTIVE Streptozotocin (STZ) is the most widely used diabetogenic agent in animal models of islet transplantation. However, the immunomodifying effects of STZ and the ensuing hyperglycemia on lymphocyte subsets, particularly on T regulatory cells (Tregs), remain poorly understood. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS This study evaluated how STZ-induced diabetes affects adaptive immunity and the consequences thereof on allograft rejection in murine models of islet and skin transplantation. The respective toxicity of STZ and hyperglycemia on lymphocyte subsets was tested in vitro. The effect of hyperglycemia was assessed independently of STZ in vivo by the removal of transplanted syngeneic islets, using an insulin pump, and with rat insulin promoter diphtheria toxin receptor transgenic mice. RESULTS Early lymphopenia in both blood and spleen was demonstrated after STZ administration. Direct toxicity of STZ on lymphocytes, particularly on CD8(+) cells and B cells, was shown in vitro. Hyperglycemia also correlated with blood and spleen lymphopenia in vivo but was not lymphotoxic in vitro. Independently of hyperglycemia, STZ led to a relative increase of Tregs in vivo, with the latter retaining their suppressive capacity in vitro. The higher frequency of Tregs was associated with Treg proliferation in the blood, but not in the spleen, and higher blood levels of transforming growth factor-β. Finally, STZ administration delayed islet and skin allograft rejection compared with naive mice. CONCLUSIONS These data highlight the direct and indirect immunosuppressive effects of STZ and acute hyperglycemia, respectively. Thus, these results have important implications for the future development of tolerance-based protocols and their translation from the laboratory to the clinic.

The effects of walking while working on productivity and health: a field experiment

Lack of physical activity can cause health problems and diminish organizational productivity. We conducted a 12-months long field experiment in a financial services company to study the effects of slow-moving treadmills outfitted for office work on employee productivity and health. 43 sedentary volunteers were assigned randomly to two groups to receive treadmill workstations 7 months apart. Employees could opt at will for standard chair-desk arrangement. Biometric measurements were taken quarterly and weekly online performance surveys were administered to study participants and to more than 200 non-participants and their supervisors.In this study we explore three questions concerning the effects of the introduction of treadmills in the workplace. (1) Does it improve overall physical activity? (2) Does it improve health measures? (3) Does it improve performance? The answers are as follows. (1) Yes (net effect of almost half an hour a day). (2) Yes (small gains, one minor decline). (3) No and yes (initial decline followed by increase to recover to initial level within one year) – based on weekly employee self reports.

Evaluating thermal treeline indicators based on air and soil temperature using an air-to-soil temperature transfer model

In recent research, both soil (root-zone) and air temperature have been used as predictors for the treeline position worldwide. In this study, we intended to (a) test the proposed temperature limitation at the treeline, and (b) investigate effects of season length for both heat sum and mean temperature variables in the Swiss Alps. As soil temperature data are available for a limited number of sites only, we developed an air-to-soil transfer model (ASTRAMO). The air-to-soil transfer model predicts daily mean root-zone temperatures (10cm below the surface) at the treeline exclusively from daily mean air temperatures. The model using calibrated air and root-zone temperature measurements at nine treeline sites in the Swiss Alps incorporates time lags to account for the damping effect between air and soil temperatures as well as the temporal autocorrelations typical for such chronological data sets. Based on the measured and modeled root-zone temperatures we analyzed. the suitability of the thermal treeline indicators seasonal mean and degree-days to describe the Alpine treeline position. The root-zone indicators were then compared to the respective indicators based on measured air temperatures, with all indicators calculated for two different indicator period lengths. For both temperature types (root-zone and air) and both indicator periods, seasonal mean temperature was the indicator with the lowest variation across all treeline sites. The resulting indicator values were 7.0 degrees C +/- 0.4 SD (short indicator period), respectively 7.1 degrees C +/- 0.5 SD (long indicator period) for root-zone temperature, and 8.0 degrees C +/- 0.6 SD (short indicator period), respectively 8.8 degrees C +/- 0.8 SD (long indicator period) for air temperature. Generally, a higher variation was found for all air based treeline indicators when compared to the root-zone temperature indicators. Despite this, we showed that treeline indicators calculated from both air and root-zone temperatures can be used to describe the Alpine treeline position.

Association between GIS-based exposure to urban air pollution during pregnancy and birth weight in the INMA Sabadell Cohort

Background: There is growing evidence that traffic-related air pollution reduces birth weight. Improving exposure assessment is a key issue to advance in this research area.Objective: We investigated the effect of prenatal exposure to traffic-related air pollution via geographic information system (GIS) models on birth weight in 570 newborns from the INMA (Environment and Childhood) Sabadell cohort.Methods: We estimated pregnancy and trimester-specific exposures to nitrogen dioxide and aromatic hydrocarbons [benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, m/p-xylene, and o-xylene (BTEX)] by using temporally adjusted land-use regression (LUR) models. We built models for NO2 and BTEX using four and three 1-week measurement campaigns, respectively, at 57 locations. We assessed the relationship between prenatal air pollution exposure and birth weight with linear regression models. We performed sensitivity analyses considering time spent at home and time spent in nonresidential outdoor environments during pregnancy.Results: In the overall cohort, neither NO2 nor BTEX exposure was significantly associated with birth weight in any of the exposure periods. When considering only women who spent < 2 hr/day in nonresidential outdoor environments, the estimated reductions in birth weight associated with an interquartile range increase in BTEX exposure levels were 77 g [95% confidence interval (CI), 7–146 g] and 102 g (95% CI, 28–176 g) for exposures during the whole pregnancy and the second trimester, respectively. The effects of NO2 exposure were less clear in this subset.Conclusions: The association of BTEX with reduced birth weight underscores the negative role of vehicle exhaust pollutants in reproductive health. Time–activity patterns during pregnancy complement GIS-based models in exposure assessment.

Web-based Implementation of Winter Maintenance Decision Support System Using GIS and Remote Sensing, May 2005

Winter maintenance, particularly snow removal and the stress of snow removal materials on public structures, is an enormous budgetary burden on municipalities and nongovernmental maintenance organizations in cold climates. Lately, geospatial technologies such as remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), and decision support tools are roviding a valuable tool for planning snow removal operations. A few researchers recently used geospatial technologies to develop winter maintenance tools. However, most of these winter maintenance tools, while having the potential to address some of these information needs, are not typically placed in the hands of planners and other interested stakeholders. Most tools are not constructed with a nontechnical user in mind and lack an easyto-use, easily understood interface. A major goal of this project was to implement a web-based Winter Maintenance Decision Support System (WMDSS) that enhances the capacity of stakeholders (city/county planners, resource managers, transportation personnel, citizens, and policy makers) to evaluate different procedures for managing snow removal assets optimally. This was accomplished by integrating geospatial analytical techniques (GIS and remote sensing), the existing snow removal asset management system, and webbased spatial decision support systems. The web-based system was implemented using the ESRI ArcIMS ActiveX Connector and related web technologies, such as Active Server Pages, JavaScript, HTML, and XML. The expert knowledge on snow removal procedures is gathered and integrated into the system in the form of encoded business rules using Visual Rule Studio. The system developed not only manages the resources but also provides expert advice to assist complex decision making, such as routing, optimal resource allocation, and monitoring live weather information. This system was developed in collaboration with Black Hawk County, IA, the city of Columbia, MO, and the Iowa Department of transportation. This product was also demonstrated for these agencies to improve the usability and applicability of the system.

Magnetization transfer-based 3D visualization of foot peripheral nerves.

PURPOSE: To investigate magnetization transfer (MT) effects as a new source of contrast for imaging and tracking of peripheral foot nerves. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two sets of 3D spoiled gradient-echo images acquired with and without a saturation pulse were used to generate MT ratio (MTR) maps of 260 μm in-plane resolution for eight volunteers at 3T. Scan parameters were adjusted to minimize signal loss due to T2 dephasing, and a dedicated coil was used to improve the inherently low signal-to-noise ratio of small voxels. Resulting MTR values in foot nerves were compared with those in surrounding muscle tissue. RESULTS: Average MTR values for muscle (45.5 ± 1.4%) and nerve (21.4 ± 3.1%) were significantly different (P < 0.0001). In general, the difference in MTR values was sufficiently large to allow for intensity-based segmentation and tracking of foot nerves in individual subjects. This procedure was termed MT-based 3D visualization. CONCLUSION: The MTR serves as a new source of contrast for imaging of peripheral foot nerves and provides a means for high spatial resolution tracking of these structures. The proposed methodology is directly applicable on standard clinical MR scanners and could be applied to systemic pathologies, such as diabetes.

Voice Transformations for Extreme Vocal Effects

Extreme Vocal Effects (EVE) in music are so recent that few studies have been carried out about how they are physiologically produced and whether they are harmful or not for the human voice.Voice Transformations in real-time are possible nowadays thanks to new technologies and voice processing algorithms. This Master's Thesis pretends to define and classify these new singing techniques and to create a mapping between the physiological aspect of each EVE to its relative spectrumvariations.Voice Transformation Models based on these mappings are proposed and discussed for each one of these EVEs. We also discuss different transformation methods and strategies in order to obtain better results.A subjective evaluation of the results of the transformations is also presented and discussed along with further work, improvements, and working lines on this field.

Towards robust network based complex systems : from evolutionary cellular automata to biological models

Abstract Sitting between your past and your future doesn't mean you are in the present. Dakota Skye Complex systems science is an interdisciplinary field grouping under the same umbrella dynamical phenomena from social, natural or mathematical sciences. The emergence of a higher order organization or behavior, transcending that expected of the linear addition of the parts, is a key factor shared by all these systems. Most complex systems can be modeled as networks that represent the interactions amongst the system's components. In addition to the actual nature of the part's interactions, the intrinsic topological structure of underlying network is believed to play a crucial role in the remarkable emergent behaviors exhibited by the systems. Moreover, the topology is also a key a factor to explain the extraordinary flexibility and resilience to perturbations when applied to transmission and diffusion phenomena. In this work, we study the effect of different network structures on the performance and on the fault tolerance of systems in two different contexts. In the first part, we study cellular automata, which are a simple paradigm for distributed computation. Cellular automata are made of basic Boolean computational units, the cells; relying on simple rules and information from- the surrounding cells to perform a global task. The limited visibility of the cells can be modeled as a network, where interactions amongst cells are governed by an underlying structure, usually a regular one. In order to increase the performance of cellular automata, we chose to change its topology. We applied computational principles inspired by Darwinian evolution, called evolutionary algorithms, to alter the system's topological structure starting from either a regular or a random one. The outcome is remarkable, as the resulting topologies find themselves sharing properties of both regular and random network, and display similitudes Watts-Strogtz's small-world network found in social systems. Moreover, the performance and tolerance to probabilistic faults of our small-world like cellular automata surpasses that of regular ones. In the second part, we use the context of biological genetic regulatory networks and, in particular, Kauffman's random Boolean networks model. In some ways, this model is close to cellular automata, although is not expected to perform any task. Instead, it simulates the time-evolution of genetic regulation within living organisms under strict conditions. The original model, though very attractive by it's simplicity, suffered from important shortcomings unveiled by the recent advances in genetics and biology. We propose to use these new discoveries to improve the original model. Firstly, we have used artificial topologies believed to be closer to that of gene regulatory networks. We have also studied actual biological organisms, and used parts of their genetic regulatory networks in our models. Secondly, we have addressed the improbable full synchronicity of the event taking place on. Boolean networks and proposed a more biologically plausible cascading scheme. Finally, we tackled the actual Boolean functions of the model, i.e. the specifics of how genes activate according to the activity of upstream genes, and presented a new update function that takes into account the actual promoting and repressing effects of one gene on another. Our improved models demonstrate the expected, biologically sound, behavior of previous GRN model, yet with superior resistance to perturbations. We believe they are one step closer to the biological reality.

The adaptative function of melanin-based colour variants

Résumé : Les mécanismes de contrôle des couleurs mélaniques chez les vertébrés sont encore discutés parmi les biologistes de l'évolution. Une hypothèse récente affirme que les effets pléiotropies du système des mélanocortines expliquent l'association fréquente entre la coloration eumélanique noire (due à la déposition d'eumélanine) et de nombreux traits physiologiques et comportementaux. De nombreuses études suggèrent, en effet, que des niveaux plus élevés des mélanocortines induisent l'assombrissement des téguments eumélaniques et affectent d'autres traits phénotypiques simultanément. Cependant, il n'est pas encore établi si ce mécanisme de pléiotropie peut s'appliquer aux colorations dues à la déposition de phaeomélanine, une autre forme commune de mélanine. Les antagonistes des mélanocortines déclenchent le phaeomélanogenèse et bloquent l'effet des mélanocortines ou ont un effet pharmacologique opposé. Nous nous proposons donc d'évaluer l'hypothèse que les effets pléiotropes des antagonistes des mélanocortines génèrent des covariations entre la coloration phaeomélanique et des aspects de la qualité individuelle. Comme prédit par cette hypothèse, nous constatons chez la chouette effraie (Tyto alba) que les traits phénotypiques (résistance au stress oxydatif et aux parasites) corrèlent positivement au degré d'expression d'une couleur eumélanique mais négativement au degré d'expression d'une coloration phaeomélanique. Puis, nous montrons chez la chouette hulotte (Strix aluco) que les associations génétiques entre la coloration phaeomélanique et la physiologie (immunité et la régulation de l'homéostasie) confèrent des avantages aux individus de différentes couleurs dans différents environnements caractérisés par l'abondance de nourriture et le niveau d'exposition aux parasites. Ainsi, nos études soutiennent l'hypothèse que les effets pléiotropes des antagonistes des mélanocortines génèrent des covariations entre les traits mélaniques et divers aspects de la qualité individuelle. Finalement, nous montrons chez le faucon crécerelle (Falco Tinnunculus) que l'expression des ornements mélaniques est sensible à la qualité de l'environnement dans lequel les individus grandissent. Ceci suggère que les gènes codant pour les mélanocortines et leurs antagonistes pourraient induire une expression des traits mélaniques dépendante de la condition de l'individu, un pattern d'expression rarement observé pour des traits généralement sous fort contrôle génétique. Summary : The information content and control mechanisms of melanin-based colour signals in vertebrates are still debated among evolutionary biologists. A recent hypothesis contends that pleiotropic effects of the melanocortin system accounts for the frequent association between black eumelanic coloration and physiological and behavioural traits. Accordingly, empirical evidence suggests that higher levels of melanocortins concurrently promote darker eumelanic integuments and affect other phenotypic traits. However, whether this mechanism may apply to signals relying on phaeomelanin, another common form of melanin pigments, remains to be established. Melanocortin antagonists trigger phaeomelanogenesis and block the effect of melanocortins or result in the opposite pharmacological effect. Therefore, we tested the hypothesis that pleiotropic effects of melanocortin antagonists and inverse agonists account for covariations between phaeomelanin-based coloration and aspects of individual quality. As predicted, we found that phenotypic traits (resistance to oxidative stress and parasites) correlated positively with a eumelanic trait and negatively with a phaeomelanic trait in the barn owl (Tyto alba). Then, we showed in the tawny owl (Strix aluco) that genetic associations between phaeomelanin-based coloration and physiology (immunity and regulation of energy homeostasis) confer benefits to differently coloured individuals under different levels of food abundance and parasite exposure. Altogether, our studies support the hypothesis that pleiotropic effects of melanocortins antagonists can indeed account for covariations between phaeomelanin-based traits and aspects of individual quality. Eventually, we show in the Eurasian kestrel (Falco Tinnunculus) that expression of melanin-based ornaments is sensitive to the environment in which individuals grow. This suggests that genes coding for melanocortins and their antagonists can mediate the condition-dependent component of melanin-based traits.

Development of improved soluble inhibitors of FasL and CD40L based on oligomerized receptors.

TNF receptor family members fused to the constant domain of immunoglobulin G have been widely used as immunoadhesins in basic in vitro and in vivo research and in some clinical applications. In this study, we assemble soluble, high avidity chimeric receptors on a pentameric scaffold derived from the coiled-coil domain of cartilage oligomeric matrix protein (COMP). The affinity of Fas and CD40 (but not TNFR-1 and TRAIL-R2) to their ligands is increased by fusion to COMP, when compared to the respective Fc chimeras. In functional assays, Fas:COMP was at least 20-fold more active than Fas:Fc at inhibiting the action of sFasL, and CD40:COMP could block CD40L-mediated proliferation of B cells, whereas CD40:Fc could not. In conclusion, members of the TNF receptor family can display high specificity and excellent avidity for their ligands if they are adequately multimerized.

Effects of phylogenetic signal on ancestral state reconstruction.

One of the standard tools used to understand the processes shaping trait evolution along the branches of a phylogenetic tree is the reconstruction of ancestral states (Pagel 1999). The purpose is to estimate the values of the trait of interest for every internal node of a phylogenetic tree based on the trait values of the extant species, a topology and, depending on the method used, branch lengths and a model of trait evolution (Ronquist 2004). This approach has been used in a variety of contexts such as biogeography (e.g., Nepokroeff et al. 2003, Blackburn 2008), ecological niche evolution (e.g., Smith and Beaulieu 2009, Evans et al. 2009) and metabolic pathway evolution (e.g., Gabaldón 2003, Christin et al. 2008). Investigations of the factors affecting the accuracy with which ancestral character states can be reconstructed have focused in particular on the choice of statistical framework (Ekman et al. 2008) and the selection of the best model of evolution (Cunningham et al. 1998, Mooers et al. 1999). However, other potential biases affecting these methods, such as the effect of tree shape (Mooers 2004), taxon sampling (Salisbury and Kim 2001) as well as reconstructing traits involved in species diversification (Goldberg and Igić 2008), have also received specific attention. Most of these studies conclude that ancestral character states reconstruction is still not perfect, and that further developments are necessary to improve its accuracy (e.g., Christin et al. 2010). Here, we examine how different estimations of branch lengths affect the accuracy of ancestral character state reconstruction. In particular, we tested the effect of using time-calibrated versus molecular branch lengths and provide guidelines to select the most appropriate branch lengths to reconstruct the ancestral state of a trait.

Electrical neuroimaging of memory discrimination based on single-trial multisensory learning.

Multisensory experiences influence subsequent memory performance and brain responses. Studies have thus far concentrated on semantically congruent pairings, leaving unresolved the influence of stimulus pairing and memory sub-types. Here, we paired images with unique, meaningless sounds during a continuous recognition task to determine if purely episodic, single-trial multisensory experiences can incidentally impact subsequent visual object discrimination. Psychophysics and electrical neuroimaging analyses of visual evoked potentials (VEPs) compared responses to repeated images either paired or not with a meaningless sound during initial encounters. Recognition accuracy was significantly impaired for images initially presented as multisensory pairs and could not be explained in terms of differential attention or transfer of effects from encoding to retrieval. VEP modulations occurred at 100-130ms and 270-310ms and stemmed from topographic differences indicative of network configuration changes within the brain. Distributed source estimations localized the earlier effect to regions of the right posterior temporal gyrus (STG) and the later effect to regions of the middle temporal gyrus (MTG). Responses in these regions were stronger for images previously encountered as multisensory pairs. Only the later effect correlated with performance such that greater MTG activity in response to repeated visual stimuli was linked with greater performance decrements. The present findings suggest that brain networks involved in this discrimination may critically depend on whether multisensory events facilitate or impair later visual memory performance. More generally, the data support models whereby effects of multisensory interactions persist to incidentally affect subsequent behavior as well as visual processing during its initial stages.