RISKS TO FOOD AVAILABILITY AND ACCESS FROM CLIMATE POLICIES: AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL FOOD AVAILABILITY AND ACCESS WITH ALTERNATIVE CLIMATE MITIGATION STRATEGIES TO 2050

Although mitigating GHG emissions is necessary to reduce the overall negative climate change impacts on crop yields and agricultural production, certain mitigation measures may generate unintended consequences to food availability and access due to land use competition and economic burden of mitigation. Prior studies have examined the co-impacts on food availability and global producer prices caused by alternative climate policies. More recent studies have looked at the reduction in total caloric intake driven by both changing income and changing food prices under one specific climate policy. However, due to inelastic calorie demand, consumers’ well-being are likely further reduced by increased food expenditures. Built upon existing literature, my dissertation explores how alternative climate policy designs might adversely affect both caloric intake and staple food budget share to 2050, by using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and a post-estimated metric of food availability and access (FAA). My dissertation first develop a set of new metrics and methods to explore new perspectives of food availability and access under new conditions. The FAA metric consists of two components, the fraction of GDP per capita spent on five categories of staple food and total caloric intake relative to a reference level. By testing the metric against alternate expectations of the future, it shows consistent results with previous studies that economic growth dominates the improvement of FAA. As we increase our ambition to achieve stringent climate targets, two policy conditions tend to have large impacts on FAA driven by competing land use and increasing food prices. Strict conservation policies leave the competition between bioenergy and agriculture production on existing commercial land, while pricing terrestrial carbon encourages large-scale afforestation. To avoid unintended outcomes to food availability and access for the poor, pricing land emissions in frontier forests has the advantage of selecting more productive land for agricultural activities compared to the full conservation approach, but the land carbon price should not be linked to the price of energy system emissions. These results are highly relevant to effective policy-making to reduce land use change emissions, such as the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD).

Sediment toxicity assessment of Guanabara Bay, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Guanabara Bay (GB) comprises of estuarine and marine environments of high ecological and socio-economic relevance, together with port, industrial and urban areas. The anthropogenic activities produce environmental impacts, including the aquatic pollution. The sediment quality assessment is important to evaluate the effects of contamination, once sediments are a repository for most of the contaminants. In this Study, the quality of sediments from GB was evaluated, in rainy and dry periods, throughout the employment of acute toxicity tests with the amphipod Tiburonella viscana, and chronic bioassays with embryos of the sea-urchin Lytechinus variegatus. In the dry period, acute toxicity was found in the sediments from stations 1, 2 3 (NW) and 7 (near Guapimirim Environmental Protection Area). The bioassays with liquid phases showed effects, but were strongly influenced by the unionized ammonia levels, which were high in this period. In the rainy period, acute toxicity was found in sediments samples from stations 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 10, 11, 12 and 15. Chronic toxicity could be clearly detected, as ammonia concentrations tended to be low in the most part of the samples. The results showed that the sediment toxicity is influenced by precipitation rates, which increase the input of contaminants to the Bay, and also allowed subdividing GB in three main zones: northwest (stations 1, 2, 3, 5), northeast (stations 6, 7, 8, 9) and centre-south (stations 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15). Results also showed that the quality of GB sediments is poor, and that toxicity tests could determine the combined effects of pollutants.

Equity-focused health impact assessment of Portuguese tobacco control legislation

The World Health Organization recommend the Equity-Focused Health Impact Assessment (HIA) as a means to assess the impact of social and economic policies on the health of populations, and acknowledges their contribution to health inequality. We describe the application of the Equity-focusedImpact Assessment methodology on the Portuguese law on Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control (Law No. 37/2007). A rapid assessment was carried out to issue recommendations which could be incorporated into the law during a revision in 2014. Quantitative (consumption and health status indicators; equity analysis) and qualitative (Focus Group) approaches were taken to evaluate the impact of the law and formulate recommendations. Young people, men and women of low socioeconomic status, and pregnant women were identified as requiring specific and appropriate interventions to prevent smoking and support smoking cessation.

Local productive arrangements for biodiesel production in Brazil: Environmental assessment of small-holders integrated oleaginous crops management.

Sustainability assessments were carried out in small-holders? farms in four territories where productive arrangements have been organized for production of minor oleagi- nous crops under the Brazilian biodiesel program. The study aimed at checking local impacts of the biodiesel productive chains at the rural establishment scale, and pro- moting the environmental performance of the selected farms, henceforth proposed as sustainable management demonstration units. Assessments were carried out with the APOIA-NovoRural system, which integrates 62 objective and quantitative indicators re- lated to five sustainability dimensions: i) Landscape Ecology, ii) Environmental Quality (Atmosphere, Water and Soil), iii) Socio-cultural Values, iv) Economic Values and v) Management and Administration. The main results point out that, in general, the eco- logical dimensions of sustainability, that is, the Landscape Ecology and Atmosphere, Water, and Soil quality indicators, show adequate field conditions, seemingly not yet negatively affected by increases in chemical inputs and natural resources use predicted as important potential impacts of the agro-energy sector. The Economic Values indica- tors have been favorably influenced in the studied farms, due to a steadier demand and improved prices for the oleaginous crops. On the other hand, valuable positive conse- quences expected for favoring farmers? market insertion, such as improved Socio-cultural Values and Management & Administration indicators, are still opportunities to be ma-terialized. The Environmental Management Reports issued to the farmers, based on the presented sustainability assessment procedures, offer valuable documentation and com-munication means for consolidating the organizational influence of the local productive arrangements studied. These productive arrangements were shown to be determinant for the selection of crop associations and diversification, as well as for the provision of technical assistance and the stabilization of demand - conditions that promote value aggregation and income improvements, favoring small-holders? insertion in the market. More importantly, these locally organized productive arrangements have been shown to strongly influence the valorization of natural resources and environmental assets, which are fundamental if sustainable rural development is to take place under the emerging agro-energy scenario.

A proposed impact assessment method for genetically modified plants (AS-GMP Method).

An essential step in the development of products based on biotechnology is an assessment of their potential economic impacts and safety, including an evaluation of the potential impact of transgenic crops and practices related to their cultivation on the environment and human or animal health. The purpose of this paper is to provide an assessment method to evaluate the impact of biotechnologies that uses quantifiable parameters and allows a comparative analysis between conventional technology and technologies using GMOs. This paper introduces amethod to performan impact analysis associatedwith the commercial release and use of genetically modified plants, the Assessment SystemGMPMethod. The assessment is performed through indicators that are arranged according to their dimension criterion likewise: environmental, economic, social, capability and institutional approach. To perform an accurate evaluation of the GMP specific indicators related to genetic modification are grouped in common fields: genetic insert features, GMplant features, gene flow, food/feed field, introduction of the GMP, unexpected occurrences and specific indicators. The novelty is the possibility to include specific parameters to the biotechnology under assessment. In this case by case analysis the factors ofmoderation and the indexes are parameterized to perform an available assessment.

Multibiomarker assessment of cadmium-based quantum dots effects in the marine mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis

Tese de Doutoramento, Ciências do Mar, da Terra e do Ambiente, Ramo: Ciências e Tecnologias do Ambiente, Especialização em Ecotoxicologia, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2016

Interest rate (in)sensitivity of emerging market corporate debt : economic analysis based on 2002-2015 empirical evidence

Interest rate sensitivity assessment framework based on fixed income yield indexes is developed and applied to two types of emerging market corporate debt: investment grade and high yield exposures. Our research advances beyond the correlation analyses focused on co- movements in yields and/or spreads of risky and risk-free assets. We show that correlation- based analyses of interest rate sensitivity could appear rather inconclusive and, hence, we investigate the bottom line profit and loss of a hypothetical model portfolio of corporates. We consider historical data covering the period 2002 – 2015, which enable us to assess interest rate sensitivity of assets during the development, the apogee, and the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Based on empirical evidence, both for investment and speculative grades securities, we find that the emerging market corporates exhibit two different regimes of sensitivity to interest rate changes. We observe switching from a positive sensitivity under the normal market conditions to a negative one during distressed phases of business cycles. This research sheds light on how financial institutions may approach interest rate risk management, evidencing that even plain vanilla portfolios of emerging market corporates, which on average could appear rather insensitive to the interest rate risk in fact present a binary behavior of their interest rate sensitivities. Our findings allow banks and financial institutions for optimizing economic capital under Basel III regulatory capital rules.

Exchange, know-hows, and interpersonal segmentation : an assessment of the archaic component of the Gaudreau (BkEu-8) site, Weedon, Quebec

Le site Gaudreau est un site perturbé et à occupations multiples situé dans le sud-est du Québec, et présente des occupations datant du Paléoindien Récent jusqu’à la période historique. Les occupations Archaïques du site, noté par la présence de bifaces diagnostiques de l’Archaïque Supérieur et de l’Archaïque Terminal et par des Macrooutils de l’Archaïque Moyen et de l’Archaïque Supérieur, sont le sujet principal de ce mémoire. Puisqu’aucune occupation ne peut être différencié horizontalement ni verticalement, et qu’aucun objet non-diagnostique ne peut être associé avec certitude, seul un échantillon de 32 objets ont été observés. Étant donné la faible taille de l’échantillon analysé, il est fort probable qu’un plus grand nombre de sources de matières premières aient été utilisés durant les occupations de l’Archaïque. Toutefois, un réseau de matières premières lithiques similaire à ceux des sites du Lac Mégantic a été observé, avec une forte représentation de la rhyolite Kineo-Traveller et des cherts Appalachiens. Des cherts des Grands Lacs et le quartzite de Cheshire sont aussi présents. Le mudstone silicifié d’origine locale et le quartz sont par contre faiblement représentés dans l’échantillon, probablement dû à un biais de proximité de source. L’analyse technique de l’échantillon, sans contrôle pour les pratiques techno-économiques, dénote plusieurs récurrences techniques à l’intérieur des unités typologiques, sans toutefois appuyer des différences récurrentes significatives entre les matières premières de régions différentes. À cause de la taille de l’échantillon et du contexte perturbé, la pertinence des fortes similarités entre certains objets est douteuse. La segmentation interpersonnelle des chaînes opératoires ne pouvait être déterminée dans l’échantillon. Cependant, les résultats incitent plutôt à croire que les matières premières devaient circuler sous diverses formes. Il peut être considéré que, en dehors des matières premières locales, les occupants Archaïques du site Gaudreau n’avaient pas d’accès direct aux matières premières exogènes.

Exchange, know-hows, and interpersonal segmentation : an assessment of the archaic component of the Gaudreau (BkEu-8) site, Weedon, Quebec

Le site Gaudreau est un site perturbé et à occupations multiples situé dans le sud-est du Québec, et présente des occupations datant du Paléoindien Récent jusqu’à la période historique. Les occupations Archaïques du site, noté par la présence de bifaces diagnostiques de l’Archaïque Supérieur et de l’Archaïque Terminal et par des Macrooutils de l’Archaïque Moyen et de l’Archaïque Supérieur, sont le sujet principal de ce mémoire. Puisqu’aucune occupation ne peut être différencié horizontalement ni verticalement, et qu’aucun objet non-diagnostique ne peut être associé avec certitude, seul un échantillon de 32 objets ont été observés. Étant donné la faible taille de l’échantillon analysé, il est fort probable qu’un plus grand nombre de sources de matières premières aient été utilisés durant les occupations de l’Archaïque. Toutefois, un réseau de matières premières lithiques similaire à ceux des sites du Lac Mégantic a été observé, avec une forte représentation de la rhyolite Kineo-Traveller et des cherts Appalachiens. Des cherts des Grands Lacs et le quartzite de Cheshire sont aussi présents. Le mudstone silicifié d’origine locale et le quartz sont par contre faiblement représentés dans l’échantillon, probablement dû à un biais de proximité de source. L’analyse technique de l’échantillon, sans contrôle pour les pratiques techno-économiques, dénote plusieurs récurrences techniques à l’intérieur des unités typologiques, sans toutefois appuyer des différences récurrentes significatives entre les matières premières de régions différentes. À cause de la taille de l’échantillon et du contexte perturbé, la pertinence des fortes similarités entre certains objets est douteuse. La segmentation interpersonnelle des chaînes opératoires ne pouvait être déterminée dans l’échantillon. Cependant, les résultats incitent plutôt à croire que les matières premières devaient circuler sous diverses formes. Il peut être considéré que, en dehors des matières premières locales, les occupants Archaïques du site Gaudreau n’avaient pas d’accès direct aux matières premières exogènes.

Life cycle assessment of residual forestry biomass chips at a power plant: a Portuguese case study

The residual forest biomass (RFB) sector has been experiencing strong development at European level and particularly in Portugal mainly due to the increase of energy production from renewable sources. The aim of this study is to assess the environmental impacts of eucalyptus RFB chips production chain in Portugal. The environmental and economic impact comparison of the processes included in the production chain is presented as well. The environmental impacts were calculated by the life cycle assessment approach described in the ISO 14040 series of standards. The production chain assessed included all processes from eucalyptus forest until the delivery of RFB chips at the power plant. The main conclusion of this study is that eucalyptus wood production is the process that presents the greatest environmental impact through the product life cycle.

Predictors of anxiety in centenarians: health, economic factors, and loneliness

Centenarians' psychological well-being is presently of great interest in psychogeriatric research but little is known about factors that specifically account for the presence of clinically relevant anxiety symptoms in this age group. This study examined the presence of anxiety and its predictors in a sample of centenarians and aims to contribute to a better understanding of anxiety determinants in extreme old age.

Defending the 'public interest': an assessment of competing actor representations of 'solutions' to growing natural resource deficiencies.

This paper applies a SRT framework to the study of two case studies, namely the recent campaign of opposition to the legalization of hydraulic fracking in the State of New York and the more ongoing debate on land leasing in Africa. In relation to both campaigns, the analysis accounts for the arguments of a major financial institution and industry representatives who stress the safe and value-adding dimensions of these practices, as well as the views of opponents who refute the validity of industry's position and point to the unacceptable risks posed to the community, health and the environment. In spite of a number of obvious differences between these two case studies, not least differences arising from contrasting socio-economic and geo-political settings, there were also some notable similarities. First, was a tendency amongst protesters in both cases to formulate their role as contemporaries in a historically extended struggle for democratic justice. All perceived of themselves as guardians of their community's right to resist a corporate 'invasion' of their territories, like their forefathers and mothers before them. A theme of colonialism was explored in both settings through various identity and thematic anchoring devices that deliberately evoked shared understandings and historical memories of exploitation and human suffering. The evocation of powerful symbols of identity through visual narratives of protest further reinforced the cultural comprehensibility of opponents' message of protest in both contexts.

Assessment of catches, landings and fishing effort as useful tools for MPA management

Marine protected areas (MPAs) have been widely recognized as a tool to achieve both fisheries management and conservation goals. Simultaneously achieving these multiple goals is difficult due to conflicts between conservation (often long-term) and economic (often short-term) objectives. MPA implementation often includes additional control measures on fisheries (e.g. vessel size restrictions, gear exclusion, catch controls) that in the short-term may have impacts on local fishers' communities. Thus, monitoring fisheries catches before, during and after MPA implementation is essential to document changes in fisheries activities and to evaluate the impact of MPAs in fishers' communities. Remarkably, in contrast with standard fisheries-independent biological surveys, these data are rarely measured at appropriate spatial scales following MPA implementation. Here, the effects of MPA implementation on local fisheries are assessed in a temperate MPA (Arrabida Marine Park, Portugal), using fisheries monitoring methods combining spatial distribution of fishing effort, on-board observations and official landings statistics at scales appropriate to the Marine Park. Fisheries spatial distribution, fishing effort, on-board data collection and official landings registered for the same vessels over time were analysed between 2004 and 2010. The applicability and reliability of using landings statistics alone was tested (i.e. when no sampling data are available) and we conclude that landings data alone only allow the identification of general patterns. The combination of landings information (which is known to be unreliable in many coastal communities) with other methods, provides an effective tool to evaluate fisheries dynamics in response to MPA implementation. As resources for monitoring socio-ecological responses to MPAs are frequently scarce, the use of landings data calibrated with fisheries information (from vessels, gear distribution and on-board data) is a valuable tool applicable to many worldwide coastal small-scale fisheries. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Research, development, and innovations in health risk assessment for brazilian agriculture.

Agriculture and livestock are key sectors of the Brazilian economy, which are essential for the country?s economic growth and for the equality between the domestic currency?s supply and demand. Agribusiness answered for about 23% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015, according to Confederação Nacional da Agricultura (CNA), and reached 50.3% of total exports in February 2016, according to Secretaria de Relações Internacionais do Agronegócio (SRI) of Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento (Mapa) (Brasil, 2016). Currently, this sector is recognized as the most competitive and efficient in Brazil, considering the global scenario.

Field-oriented assessment of agricultural crops through temporal segmentation of modis VI data.

Monitoring agricultural crops constitutes a vital task for the general understanding of land use spatio-temporal dynamics. This paper presents an approach for the enhancement of current crop monitoring capabilities on a regional scale, in order to allow for the analysis of environmental and socio-economic drivers and impacts of agricultural land use. This work discusses the advantages and current limitations of using 250m VI data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for this purpose, with emphasis in the difficulty of correctly analyzing pixels whose temporal responses are disturbed due to certain sources of interference such as mixed or heterogeneous land cover. It is shown that the influence of noisy or disturbed pixels can be minimized, and a much more consistent and useful result can be attained, if individual agricultural fields are identified and each field's pixels are analyzed in a collective manner. As such, a method is proposed that makes use of image segmentation techniques based on MODIS temporal information in order to identify portions of the study area that agree with actual agricultural field borders. The pixels of each portion or segment are then analyzed individually in order to estimate the reliability of the temporal signal observed and the consequent relevance of any estimation of land use from that data. The proposed method was applied in the state of Mato Grosso, in mid-western Brazil, where extensive ground truth data was available. Experiments were carried out using several supervised classification algorithms as well as different subsets of land cover classes, in order to test the methodology in a comprehensive way. Results show that the proposed method is capable of consistently improving classification results not only in terms of overall accuracy but also qualitatively by allowing a better understanding of the land use patterns detected. It thus provides a practical and straightforward procedure for enhancing crop-mapping capabilities using temporal series of moderate resolution remote sensing data.