Emulation of dynamic computer models with multivariate output

This preliminary report describes work carried out as part of work package 1.2 of the MUCM research project. The report is split in two parts: the ?rst part (Sections 1 and 2) summarises the state of the art in emulation of computer models, while the second presents some initial work on the emulation of dynamic models. In the ?rst part, we describe the basics of emulation, introduce the notation and put together the key results for the emulation of models with single and multiple outputs, with or without the use of mean function. In the second part, we present preliminary results on the chaotic Lorenz 63 model. We look at emulation of a single time step, and repeated application of the emulator for sequential predic- tion. After some design considerations, the emulator is compared with the exact simulator on a number of runs to assess its performance. Several general issues related to emulating dynamic models are raised and discussed. Current work on the larger Lorenz 96 model (40 variables) is presented in the context of dimension reduction, with results to be provided in a follow-up report. The notation used in this report are summarised in appendix.

Neural network enhanced self tuning adaptive control application for non-linear control of dynamic systems

The main theme of research of this project concerns the study of neutral networks to control uncertain and non-linear control systems. This involves the control of continuous time, discrete time, hybrid and stochastic systems with input, state or output constraints by ensuring good performances. A great part of this project is devoted to the opening of frontiers between several mathematical and engineering approaches in order to tackle complex but very common non-linear control problems. The objectives are: 1. Design and develop procedures for neutral network enhanced self-tuning adaptive non-linear control systems; 2. To design, as a general procedure, neural network generalised minimum variance self-tuning controller for non-linear dynamic plants (Integration of neural network mapping with generalised minimum variance self-tuning controller strategies); 3. To develop a software package to evaluate control system performances using Matlab, Simulink and Neural Network toolbox. An adaptive control algorithm utilising a recurrent network as a model of a partial unknown non-linear plant with unmeasurable state is proposed. Appropriately, it appears that structured recurrent neural networks can provide conveniently parameterised dynamic models for many non-linear systems for use in adaptive control. Properties of static neural networks, which enabled successful design of stable adaptive control in the state feedback case, are also identified. A survey of the existing results is presented which puts them in a systematic framework showing their relation to classical self-tuning adaptive control application of neural control to a SISO/MIMO control. Simulation results demonstrate that the self-tuning design methods may be practically applicable to a reasonably large class of unknown linear and non-linear dynamic control systems.

Calculating the balance between water resources and water demands:an approach using risk analysis

Predicting future need for water resources has traditionally been, at best, a crude mixture of art and science. This has prevented the evaluation of water need from being carried out in either a consistent or comprehensive manner. This inconsistent and somewhat arbitrary approach to water resources planning led to well publicised premature developments in the 1970's and 1980's but privatisation of the Water Industry, including creation of the Office of Water Services and the National Rivers Authority in 1989, turned the tide of resource planning to the point where funding of schemes and their justification by the Regulators could no longer be assumed. Furthermore, considerable areas of uncertainty were beginning to enter the debate and complicate the assessment It was also no longer appropriate to consider that contingencies would continue to lie solely on the demand side of the equation. An inability to calculate the balance between supply and demand may mean an inability to meet standards of service or, arguably worse, an excessive provision of water resources and excessive costs to customers. United Kingdom Water Industry Research limited (UKWlR) Headroom project in 1998 provided a simple methodology for the calculation of planning margins. This methodology, although well received, was not, however, accepted by the Regulators as a tool sufficient to promote resource development. This thesis begins by considering the history of water resource planning in the UK, moving on to discuss events following privatisation of the water industry post·1985. The mid section of the research forms the bulk of original work and provides a scoping exercise which reveals a catalogue of uncertainties prevalent within the supply-demand balance. Each of these uncertainties is considered in terms of materiality, scope, and whether it can be quantified within a risk analysis package. Many of the areas of uncertainty identified would merit further research. A workable, yet robust, methodology for evaluating the balance between water resources and water demands by using a spreadsheet based risk analysis package is presented. The technique involves statistical sampling and simulation such that samples are taken from input distributions on both the supply and demand side of the equation and the imbalance between supply and demand is calculated in the form of an output distribution. The percentiles of the output distribution represent different standards of service to the customer. The model allows dependencies between distributions to be considered, for improved uncertainties to be assessed and for the impact of uncertain solutions to any imbalance to be calculated directly. The method is considered a Significant leap forward in the field of water resource planning.

A framework for assessing business-incubation input, process and output performance:proceedings of the RENT XXVII Conference, 20-22 November 2013, Vilnius, Lithuania

With business incubators deemed as a potent infrastructural element for entrepreneurship development, business incubation management practice and performance have received widespread attention. However, despite this surge of interest, scholars have questioned the extent to which business incubation delivers added value. Thus, there is a growing awareness among researchers, practitioners and policy makers of the need for more rigorous evaluation of the business incubation output performance. Aligned to this is an increasing demand for benchmarking business incubation input/process performance and highlighting best practice. This paper offers a business incubation assessment framework, which considers input/process and output performance domains with relevant indicators. This tool adds value on different levels. It has been developed in collaboration with practitioners and industry experts and therefore it would be relevant and useful to business incubation managers. Once a large enough database of completed questionnaires has been populated on an online platform managed by a coordinating mechanism, such as a business incubation membership association, business incubator managers can reflect on their practices by using this assessment framework to learn their relative position vis-à-vis their peers against each domain. This will enable them to align with best practice in this field. Beyond implications for business incubation management practice, this performance assessment framework would also be useful to researchers and policy makers concerned with business incubation management practice and impact. Future large-scale research could test for construct validity and reliability. Also, discriminant analysis could help link input and process indicators with output measures.

Orthogonal frequency division multiplexing based air interfaces and multiple input multiple output techniques in cooperative satellite communications for 4th generation mobile systems

Recently, wireless network technology has grown at such a pace that scientific research has become a practical reality in a very short time span. Mobile wireless communications have witnessed the adoption of several generations, each of them complementing and improving the former. One mobile system that features high data rates and open network architecture is 4G. Currently, the research community and industry, in the field of wireless networks, are working on possible choices for solutions in the 4G system. 4G is a collection of technologies and standards that will allow a range of ubiquitous computing and wireless communication architectures. The researcher considers one of the most important characteristics of future 4G mobile systems the ability to guarantee reliable communications from 100 Mbps, in high mobility links, to as high as 1 Gbps for low mobility users, in addition to high efficiency in the spectrum usage. On mobile wireless communications networks, one important factor is the coverage of large geographical areas. In 4G systems, a hybrid satellite/terrestrial network is crucial to providing users with coverage wherever needed. Subscribers thus require a reliable satellite link to access their services when they are in remote locations, where a terrestrial infrastructure is unavailable. Thus, they must rely upon satellite coverage. Good modulation and access technique are also required in order to transmit high data rates over satellite links to mobile users. This technique must adapt to the characteristics of the satellite channel and also be efficient in the use of allocated bandwidth. Satellite links are fading channels, when used by mobile users. Some measures designed to approach these fading environments make use of: (1) spatial diversity (two receive antenna configuration); (2) time diversity (channel interleaver/spreading techniques); and (3) upper layer FEC. The author proposes the use of OFDM (Orthogonal Frequency Multiple Access) for the satellite link by increasing the time diversity. This technique will allow for an increase of the data rate, as primarily required by multimedia applications, and will also optimally use the available bandwidth. In addition, this dissertation approaches the use of Cooperative Satellite Communications for hybrid satellite/terrestrial networks. By using this technique, the satellite coverage can be extended to areas where there is no direct link to the satellite. For this purpose, a good channel model is necessary.

Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing Based Air Interfaces and Multiple Input Multiple Output Techniques in Cooperative Satellite Communications for 4th Generation Mobile Systems

Recently, wireless network technology has grown at such a pace that scientific research has become a practical reality in a very short time span. One mobile system that features high data rates and open network architecture is 4G. Currently, the research community and industry, in the field of wireless networks, are working on possible choices for solutions in the 4G system. The researcher considers one of the most important characteristics of future 4G mobile systems the ability to guarantee reliable communications at high data rates, in addition to high efficiency in the spectrum usage. On mobile wireless communication networks, one important factor is the coverage of large geographical areas. In 4G systems, a hybrid satellite/terrestrial network is crucial to providing users with coverage wherever needed. Subscribers thus require a reliable satellite link to access their services when they are in remote locations where a terrestrial infrastructure is unavailable. The results show that good modulation and access technique are also required in order to transmit high data rates over satellite links to mobile users. The dissertation proposes the use of OFDM (Orthogonal Frequency Multiple Access) for the satellite link by increasing the time diversity. This technique will allow for an increase of the data rate, as primarily required by multimedia applications, and will also optimally use the available bandwidth. In addition, this dissertation approaches the use of Cooperative Satellite Communications for hybrid satellite/terrestrial networks. By using this technique, the satellite coverage can be extended to areas where there is no direct link to the satellite. The issue of Cooperative Satellite Communications is solved through a new algorithm that forwards the received data from the fixed node to the mobile node. This algorithm is very efficient because it does not allow unnecessary transmissions and is based on signal to noise ratio (SNR) measures.

Dynamic fault tree analysis with PEWMA modeling of event rates and Bayesian updating of material balance parameters using MCMC

This research explores Bayesian updating as a tool for estimating parameters probabilistically by dynamic analysis of data sequences. Two distinct Bayesian updating methodologies are assessed. The first approach focuses on Bayesian updating of failure rates for primary events in fault trees. A Poisson Exponentially Moving Average (PEWMA) model is implemnented to carry out Bayesian updating of failure rates for individual primary events in the fault tree. To provide a basis for testing of the PEWMA model, a fault tree is developed based on the Texas City Refinery incident which occurred in 2005. A qualitative fault tree analysis is then carried out to obtain a logical expression for the top event. A dynamic Fault Tree analysis is carried out by evaluating the top event probability at each Bayesian updating step by Monte Carlo sampling from posterior failure rate distributions. It is demonstrated that PEWMA modeling is advantageous over conventional conjugate Poisson-Gamma updating techniques when failure data is collected over long time spans. The second approach focuses on Bayesian updating of parameters in non-linear forward models. Specifically, the technique is applied to the hydrocarbon material balance equation. In order to test the accuracy of the implemented Bayesian updating models, a synthetic data set is developed using the Eclipse reservoir simulator. Both structured grid and MCMC sampling based solution techniques are implemented and are shown to model the synthetic data set with good accuracy. Furthermore, a graphical analysis shows that the implemented MCMC model displays good convergence properties. A case study demonstrates that Likelihood variance affects the rate at which the posterior assimilates information from the measured data sequence. Error in the measured data significantly affects the accuracy of the posterior parameter distributions. Increasing the likelihood variance mitigates random measurement errors, but casuses the overall variance of the posterior to increase. Bayesian updating is shown to be advantageous over deterministic regression techniques as it allows for incorporation of prior belief and full modeling uncertainty over the parameter ranges. As such, the Bayesian approach to estimation of parameters in the material balance equation shows utility for incorporation into reservoir engineering workflows.

Dynamic multi-partitioning for parallel finite element applications

The central product of the DRAMA (Dynamic Re-Allocation of Meshes for parallel Finite Element Applications) project is a library comprising a variety of tools for dynamic re-partitioning of unstructured Finite Element (FE) applications. The input to the DRAMA library is the computational mesh, and corresponding costs, partitioned into sub-domains. The core library functions then perform a parallel computation of a mesh re-allocation that will re-balance the costs based on the DRAMA cost model. We discuss the basic features of this cost model, which allows a general approach to load identification, modelling and imbalance minimisation. Results from crash simulations are presented which show the necessity for multi-phase/multi-constraint partitioning components.

Automated Software Debugging Using Hybrid Static/Dynamic Analysis

With the increasing complexity of today's software, the software development process is becoming highly time and resource consuming. The increasing number of software configurations, input parameters, usage scenarios, supporting platforms, external dependencies, and versions plays an important role in expanding the costs of maintaining and repairing unforeseeable software faults. To repair software faults, developers spend considerable time in identifying the scenarios leading to those faults and root-causing the problems. While software debugging remains largely manual, it is not the case with software testing and verification. The goal of this research is to improve the software development process in general, and software debugging process in particular, by devising techniques and methods for automated software debugging, which leverage the advances in automatic test case generation and replay. In this research, novel algorithms are devised to discover faulty execution paths in programs by utilizing already existing software test cases, which can be either automatically or manually generated. The execution traces, or alternatively, the sequence covers of the failing test cases are extracted. Afterwards, commonalities between these test case sequence covers are extracted, processed, analyzed, and then presented to the developers in the form of subsequences that may be causing the fault. The hypothesis is that code sequences that are shared between a number of faulty test cases for the same reason resemble the faulty execution path, and hence, the search space for the faulty execution path can be narrowed down by using a large number of test cases. To achieve this goal, an efficient algorithm is implemented for finding common subsequences among a set of code sequence covers. Optimization techniques are devised to generate shorter and more logical sequence covers, and to select subsequences with high likelihood of containing the root cause among the set of all possible common subsequences. A hybrid static/dynamic analysis approach is designed to trace back the common subsequences from the end to the root cause. A debugging tool is created to enable developers to use the approach, and integrate it with an existing Integrated Development Environment. The tool is also integrated with the environment's program editors so that developers can benefit from both the tool suggestions, and their source code counterparts. Finally, a comparison between the developed approach and the state-of-the-art techniques shows that developers need only to inspect a small number of lines in order to find the root cause of the fault. Furthermore, experimental evaluation shows that the algorithm optimizations lead to better results in terms of both the algorithm running time and the output subsequence length.

Input-state-output representations of concatenated 2D convolutional codes

In this paper we investigate a novel model of concatenation of a pair of two-dimensional (2D) convolutional codes. We consider finite-support 2D convolutional codes and choose the so-called Fornasini-Marchesini input-state-output (ISO) model to represent these codes. More concretely, we interconnect in series two ISO representations of two 2D convolutional codes and derive the ISO representation of the ob- tained 2D convolutional code. We provide necessary condition for this representation to be minimal. Moreover, structural properties of modal reachability and modal observability of the resulting 2D convolutional codes are investigated.

An identification procedure of multi-input Wiener models for the distortion analysis of nonlinear circuits

In this contribution, a system identification procedure of a two-input Wiener model suitable for the analysis of the disturbance behavior of integrated nonlinear circuits is presented. The identified block model is comprised of two linear dynamic and one static nonlinear block, which are determined using an parameterized approach. In order to characterize the linear blocks, an correlation analysis using a white noise input in combination with a model reduction scheme is adopted. After having characterized the linear blocks, from the output spectrum under single tone excitation at each input a linear set of equations will be set up, whose solution gives the coefficients of the nonlinear block. By this data based black box approach, the distortion behavior of a nonlinear circuit under the influence of an interfering signal at an arbitrary input port can be determined. Such an interfering signal can be, for example, an electromagnetic interference signal which conductively couples into the port of consideration. © 2011 Author(s).

ANÁLISIS COMPARATIVO DE DOS FINCAS PRODUCTORAS DE CAFÉ ORGÁNICO UTILIZANDO LOS MÉTODOS DEL BALANCE ENERGÉTICO Y AGROECONÓMICO

En todos los procesos en que se transforma materia existe un flujo de energía, los sistemas productivos no se excluyen de esta regla, todo proceso productivo tiene una entrada (input) energía y una salida (output).La energía necesaria para la producción proviene de fuentes muy diversas, que podemos clasificar, de acuerdo con el tiempo que tarda el ciclo de formación de la materia prima, en: fuentes renovables a corto y mediano plazo, y fuentes renovables a largo plazo.Desde el descubrimiento del petróleo, la producción de energía se ha basado en fuentes renovables a muy largo plazo, de modo que el sistema no es sostenible. Las fuentes de combustibles fósiles se están agotando y los desechos producidos se acumulan porque su asimilación es más lenta que su formación.

Multiple solutions and numerical analysis to the dynamic and stationary models coupling a delayed energy balance model involving latent heat and discontinuous albedo with a deep ocean

We study a climatologically important interaction of two of the main components of the geophysical system by adding an energy balance model for the averaged atmospheric temperature as dynamic boundary condition to a diagnostic ocean model having an additional spatial dimension. In this work, we give deeper insight than previous papers in the literature, mainly with respect to the 1990 pioneering model by Watts and Morantine. We are taking into consideration the latent heat for the two phase ocean as well as a possible delayed term. Non-uniqueness for the initial boundary value problem, uniqueness under a non-degeneracy condition and the existence of multiple stationary solutions are proved here. These multiplicity results suggest that an S-shaped bifurcation diagram should be expected to occur in this class of models generalizing previous energy balance models. The numerical method applied to the model is based on a finite volume scheme with nonlinear weighted essentially non-oscillatory reconstruction and Runge–Kutta total variation diminishing for time integration.

User scheduling for low earth orbit multi-user multiple-input-multiple-output non-terrestrial network systems

In rural and isolated areas without cellular coverage, Satellite Communication (SatCom) is the best candidate to complement terrestrial coverage. However, the main challenge for future generations of wireless networks will be to meet the growing demand for new services while dealing with the scarcity of frequency spectrum. As a result, it is critical to investigate more efficient methods of utilizing the limited bandwidth; and resource sharing is likely the only choice. The research community’s focus has recently shifted towards the interference management and exploitation paradigm to meet the increasing data traffic demands. In the Downlink (DL) and Feedspace (FS), LEO satellites with an on-board antenna array can offer service to numerous User Terminals (UTs) (VSAT or Handhelds) on-ground in FFR schemes by using cutting-edge digital beamforming techniques. Considering this setup, the adoption of an effective user scheduling approach is a critical aspect given the unusually high density of User terminals on the ground as compared to the on-board available satellite antennas. In this context, one possibility is that of exploiting clustering algorithms for scheduling in LEO MU-MIMO systems in which several users within the same group are simultaneously served by the satellite via Space Division Multiplexing (SDM), and then these different user groups are served in different time slots via Time Division Multiplexing (TDM). This thesis addresses this problem by defining a user scheduling problem as an optimization problem and discusses several algorithms to solve it. In particular, focusing on the FS and user service link (i.e., DL) of a single MB-LEO satellite operating below 6 GHz, the user scheduling problem in the Frequency Division Duplex (FDD) mode is addressed. The proposed State-of-the-Art scheduling approaches are based on graph theory. The proposed solution offers high performance in terms of per-user capacity, Sum-rate capacity, SINR, and Spectral Efficiency.