Data to Decision in a Dynamic Ocean: Robust Species Distribution Models and Spatial Decision Frameworks

Human use of the oceans is increasingly in conflict with conservation of endangered species. Methods for managing the spatial and temporal placement of industries such as military, fishing, transportation and offshore energy, have historically been post hoc; i.e. the time and place of human activity is often already determined before assessment of environmental impacts. In this dissertation, I build robust species distribution models in two case study areas, US Atlantic (Best et al. 2012) and British Columbia (Best et al. 2015), predicting presence and abundance respectively, from scientific surveys. These models are then applied to novel decision frameworks for preemptively suggesting optimal placement of human activities in space and time to minimize ecological impacts: siting for offshore wind energy development, and routing ships to minimize risk of striking whales. Both decision frameworks relate the tradeoff between conservation risk and industry profit with synchronized variable and map views as online spatial decision support systems.

For siting offshore wind energy development (OWED) in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 4), bird density maps are combined across species with weights of OWED sensitivity to collision and displacement and 10 km2 sites are compared against OWED profitability based on average annual wind speed at 90m hub heights and distance to transmission grid. A spatial decision support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot views by site. A selected site can be inspected for sensitivity to a cetaceans throughout the year, so as to capture months of the year which minimize episodic impacts of pre-operational activities such as seismic airgun surveying and pile driving.

Routing ships to avoid whale strikes (chapter 5) can be similarly viewed as a tradeoff, but is a different problem spatially. A cumulative cost surface is generated from density surface maps and conservation status of cetaceans, before applying as a resistance surface to calculate least-cost routes between start and end locations, i.e. ports and entrance locations to study areas. Varying a multiplier to the cost surface enables calculation of multiple routes with different costs to conservation of cetaceans versus cost to transportation industry, measured as distance. Similar to the siting chapter, a spatial decisions support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot view of proposed routes. The user can also input arbitrary start and end locations to calculate the tradeoff on the fly.

Essential to the input of these decision frameworks are distributions of the species. The two preceding chapters comprise species distribution models from two case study areas, U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2) and British Columbia (chapter 3), predicting presence and density, respectively. Although density is preferred to estimate potential biological removal, per Marine Mammal Protection Act requirements in the U.S., all the necessary parameters, especially distance and angle of observation, are less readily available across publicly mined datasets.

In the case of predicting cetacean presence in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2), I extracted datasets from the online OBIS-SEAMAP geo-database, and integrated scientific surveys conducted by ship (n=36) and aircraft (n=16), weighting a Generalized Additive Model by minutes surveyed within space-time grid cells to harmonize effort between the two survey platforms. For each of 16 cetacean species guilds, I predicted the probability of occurrence from static environmental variables (water depth, distance to shore, distance to continental shelf break) and time-varying conditions (monthly sea-surface temperature). To generate maps of presence vs. absence, Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to define the optimal threshold that minimizes false positive and false negative error rates. I integrated model outputs, including tables (species in guilds, input surveys) and plots (fit of environmental variables, ROC curve), into an online spatial decision support system, allowing for easy navigation of models by taxon, region, season, and data provider.

For predicting cetacean density within the inner waters of British Columbia (chapter 3), I calculated density from systematic, line-transect marine mammal surveys over multiple years and seasons (summer 2004, 2005, 2008, and spring/autumn 2007) conducted by Raincoast Conservation Foundation. Abundance estimates were calculated using two different methods: Conventional Distance Sampling (CDS) and Density Surface Modelling (DSM). CDS generates a single density estimate for each stratum, whereas DSM explicitly models spatial variation and offers potential for greater precision by incorporating environmental predictors. Although DSM yields a more relevant product for the purposes of marine spatial planning, CDS has proven to be useful in cases where there are fewer observations available for seasonal and inter-annual comparison, particularly for the scarcely observed elephant seal. Abundance estimates are provided on a stratum-specific basis. Steller sea lions and harbour seals are further differentiated by ‘hauled out’ and ‘in water’. This analysis updates previous estimates (Williams & Thomas 2007) by including additional years of effort, providing greater spatial precision with the DSM method over CDS, novel reporting for spring and autumn seasons (rather than summer alone), and providing new abundance estimates for Steller sea lion and northern elephant seal. In addition to providing a baseline of marine mammal abundance and distribution, against which future changes can be compared, this information offers the opportunity to assess the risks posed to marine mammals by existing and emerging threats, such as fisheries bycatch, ship strikes, and increased oil spill and ocean noise issues associated with increases of container ship and oil tanker traffic in British Columbia’s continental shelf waters.

Starting with marine animal observations at specific coordinates and times, I combine these data with environmental data, often satellite derived, to produce seascape predictions generalizable in space and time. These habitat-based models enable prediction of encounter rates and, in the case of density surface models, abundance that can then be applied to management scenarios. Specific human activities, OWED and shipping, are then compared within a tradeoff decision support framework, enabling interchangeable map and tradeoff plot views. These products make complex processes transparent for gaming conservation, industry and stakeholders towards optimal marine spatial management, fundamental to the tenets of marine spatial planning, ecosystem-based management and dynamic ocean management.

Assessment of primary energy conversions of oscillating water columns. I. Hydrodynamic analysis

This is an investigation on the development of a numerical assessment method for the hydrodynamic performance of an oscillating water column (OWC) wave energy converter. In the research work, a systematic study has been carried out on how the hydrodynamic problem can be solved and represented reliably, focusing on the phenomena of the interactions of the wave-structure and the wave-internal water surface. These phenomena are extensively examined numerically to show how the hydrodynamic parameters can be reliably obtained and used for the OWC performance assessment. In studying the dynamic system, a two-body system is used for the OWC wave energy converter. The first body is the device itself, and the second body is an imaginary “piston,” which replaces part of the water at the internal water surface in the water column. One advantage of the two-body system for an OWC wave energy converter is its physical representations, and therefore, the relevant mathematical expressions and the numerical simulation can be straightforward. That is, the main hydrodynamic parameters can be assessed using the boundary element method of the potential flow in frequency domain, and the relevant parameters are transformed directly from frequency domain to time domain for the two-body system. However, as it is shown in the research, an appropriate representation of the “imaginary” piston is very important, especially when the relevant parameters have to be transformed from frequency-domain to time domain for a further analysis. The examples given in the research have shown that the correct parameters transformed from frequency domain to time domain can be a vital factor for a successful numerical simulation.

Wave energy conversion of oscillating water column devices including air compressibility

This paper presents an investigation on air compressibility in the air chamber and its effects on the power conversion of oscillating water column (OWC) devices. As it is well known that for practical OWC plants, their air chambers may be large enough for accommodating significant air compressibility, the “spring effect,” an effect that is frequently and simply regarded to store and release energy during the reciprocating process of a wave cycle. Its insight effects on the device’s performance and power conversion, however, have not been studied in detail. This research will investigate the phenomena with a special focus on the effects of air compressibility on wave energy conversion. Air compressibility itself is a complicated nonlinear process in nature, but it can be linearised for numerical simulations under certain assumptions for frequency domain analysis. In this research work, air compressibility in the OWC devices is first linearised and further coupled with the hydrodynamics of the OWC. It is able to show mathematically that in frequency-domain, air compressibility can increase the spring coefficients of both the water body motion and the device motion (if it is a floating device), and enhance the coupling effects between the water body and the structure. Corresponding to these changes, the OWC performance, the capture power, and the optimised Power Take-off (PTO) damping coefficient in the wave energy conversion can be all modified due to air compressibility. To validate the frequency-domain results and understand the problems better, the more accurate time-domain simulations with fewer assumptions have been used for comparison. It is shown that air compressibility may significantly change the dynamic responses and the capacity of converting wave energy of the OWC devices if the air chamber is very large.

Dynamic effects of anchor positional tolerance on tension moored floating wind turbine

For water depths greater than 60m floating wind turbines will become the most economical option for generating offshore wind energy. Tension mooring stabilised units are one type of platform being considered by the offshore wind energy industry. The complex mooring arrangement used by this type of platform means that the dynamics are greatly effected by offsets in the positioning of the anchors. This paper examines the issue of tendon anchor position tolerances. The dynamic effects of three positional tolerances are analysed in survival state using the time domain FASTLink. The severe impact of worst case anchor positional offsets on platform and turbine survivability is shown. The worst anchor misposition combinations are highlighted and should be strongly avoided. Novel methods to mitigate this issue are presented.

Dynamic control of laser driven proton beams by exploiting self-generated, ultrashort electromagnetic pulses

As part of the ultrafast charge dynamics initiated by high intensity laser irradiations of solid targets,high amplitude EM pulses propagate away from the interaction point and are transported along anystalks and wires attached to the target. The propagation of these high amplitude pulses along a thinwire connected to a laser irradiated target was diagnosed via the proton radiography technique,measuring a pulse duration of 20 ps and a pulse velocity close to the speed of light. The strongelectric field associated with the EM pulse can be exploited for controlling dynamically the protonbeams produced from a laser-driven source. Chromatic divergence control of broadband laser drivenprotons (upto 75% reduction in divergence of >5 MeV protons) was obtained by winding the supportingwire around the proton beam axis to create a helical coil structure. In addition to providingfocussing and energy selection, the technique has the potential to post-accelerate the transiting protonsby the longitudinal component of the curved electric field lines produced by the helical coil lens.

Achieving Energy Saving through Proxying Applications on behalf of Idle Devices

Several studies in the past have revealed that network end user devices are left powered up 24/7 even when idle just for the sake of maintaining Internet connectivity. Network devices normally support low power states but are kept inactive due to their inability to maintain network connectivity. The Network Connectivity Proxy (NCP) has recently been proposed as an effective mechanism to impersonate network connectivity on behalf of high power devices and enable them to sleep when idle without losing network presence. The NCP can efficiently proxy basic networking protocol, however, proxying of Internet based applications have no absolute solution due to dynamic and non-predictable nature of the packets they are sending and receiving periodically. This paper proposes an approach for proxying Internet based applications and presents the basic software architectures and capabilities. Further, this paper also practically evaluates the proposed framework and analyzes expected energy savings achievable under-different realistic conditions.

XFEL resonant photo-pumping of dense plasmas and dynamic evolution of autoionizing core hole states

Similarly to the case of LIF (Laser-Induced Fluorescence), an equally revolutionary impact to science is expected from resonant X-ray photo-pumping. It will particularly contribute to a progress in high energy density science: pumped core hole states create X-ray transitions that can escape dense matter on a 10 fs-time scale without essential photoabsorption, thus providing a unique possibility to study matter under extreme conditions. In the first proof of principle experiment at the X-ray Free Electron Laser LCLS at SCLAC [Seely, J., Rosmej, F.B., Shepherd, R., Riley, D., Lee, R.W. Proposal to Perform the 1^st High Energy Density Plasma Spectroscopic Pump/Probe Experiment", approved LCLS proposal L332 (2010)] we have successfully pumped inner-shell X-ray transitions in dense plasmas. The plasma was generated with a YAG laser irradiating solid Al and Mg targets attached to a rotating cylinder. In parallel to the optical laser beam, the XFEL was focused into the plasma plume at different delay times and pump energies. Pumped X-ray transitions have been observed with a spherically bent crystal spectrometer coupled to a Princeton CCD. By using this experimental configuration, we have simultaneously achieved extremely high spectral (λ/δλ ≈ 5000) and spatial resolution (δx≈70 μm) while maintaining high luminosity and a large spectral range covered (6.90 - 8.35 Å). By precisely measuring the variations in spectra emitted from plasma under action of XFEL radiation, we have successfully demonstrated transient X- ray pumping in a dense plasma.

Application of Volterra Equations to Solve Unit Commitment Problem of Optimised Energy Storage and Generation

Development of reliable methods for optimised energy storage and generation is one of the most imminent challenges in modern power systems. In this paper an adaptive approach to load leveling problem using novel dynamic models based on the Volterra integral equations of the first kind with piecewise continuous kernels. These integral equations efficiently solve such inverse problem taking into account both the time dependent efficiencies and the availability of generation/storage of each energy storage technology. In this analysis a direct numerical method is employed to find the least-cost dispatch of available storages. The proposed collocation type numerical method has second order accuracy and enjoys self-regularization properties, which is associated with confidence levels of system demand. This adaptive approach is suitable for energy storage optimisation in real time. The efficiency of the proposed methodology is demonstrated on the Single Electricity Market of Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

Building performance evaluation of domestic energy efficient retrofits in current and future climates

Approximately half of the houses in Northern Ireland were built before any form of minimum thermal specification or energy efficiency standard was enforced. Furthermore, 44% of households are categorised as being in fuel poverty; spending more than 10% of the household income to heat the house to bring it to an acceptable level of thermal comfort. To bring existing housing stock up to an acceptable standard, retrofitting for improving the energy efficiency is essential and it is also necessary to study the effectiveness of such improvements in future climate scenarios. This paper presents the results from a year-long performance monitoring of two houses that have undergone retrofits to improve energy efficiency. Using wireless sensor technology internal temperature, humidity, external weather, household gas and electricity usage were monitored for a year. Simulations using IES-VE dynamic building modelling software were calibrated using the monitoring data to ASHARE Guideline 14 standards. The energy performance and the internal environment of the houses were then assessed for current and future climate scenarios and the results show that there is a need for a holistic balanced strategy for retrofitting.

Data-Driven Dynamic Modeling of Coupled Thermal and Electric Outputs of Microturbines

Microturbines are among the most successfully commercialized distributed energy resources, especially when they are used for combined heat and power generation. However, the interrelated thermal and electrical system dynamic behaviors have not been fully investigated. This is technically challenging due to the complex thermo-fluid-mechanical energy conversion processes which introduce multiple time-scale dynamics and strong nonlinearity into the analysis. To tackle this problem, this paper proposes a simplified model which can predict the coupled thermal and electric output dynamics of microturbines. Considering the time-scale difference of various dynamic processes occuring within microturbines, the electromechanical subsystem is treated as a fast quasi-linear process while the thermo-mechanical subsystem is treated as a slow process with high nonlinearity. A three-stage subspace identification method is utilized to capture the dominant dynamics and predict the electric power output. For the thermo-mechanical process, a radial basis function model trained by the particle swarm optimization method is employed to handle the strong nonlinear characteristics. Experimental tests on a Capstone C30 microturbine show that the proposed modeling method can well capture the system dynamics and produce a good prediction of the coupled thermal and electric outputs in various operating modes.

Identification of Microturbine Model for Long-term Dynamic Analysis of Distribution Networks

As one of the most successfully commercialized distributed energy resources, the long-term effects of microturbines (MTs) on the distribution network has not been fully investigated due to the complex thermo-fluid-mechanical energy conversion processes. This is further complicated by the fact that the parameter and internal data of MTs are not always available to the electric utility, due to different ownerships and confidentiality concerns. To address this issue, a general modeling approach for MTs is proposed in this paper, which allows for the long-term simulation of the distribution network with multiple MTs. First, the feasibility of deriving a simplified MT model for long-term dynamic analysis of the distribution network is discussed, based on the physical understanding of dynamic processes that occurred within MTs. Then a three-stage identification method is developed in order to obtain a piecewise MT model and predict electro-mechanical system behaviors with saturation. Next, assisted with the electric power flow calculation tool, a fast simulation methodology is proposed to evaluate the long-term impact of multiple MTs on the distribution network. Finally, the model is verified by using Capstone C30 microturbine experiments, and further applied to the dynamic simulation of a modified IEEE 37-node test feeder with promising results.

Data-Driven Dynamic Prediction of Interrelated Heat and Electric Outputs of Microturbines

Microturbines are among the most successfully commercialized distributed energy resources, especially when they are used for combined heat and power generation. However, the interrelated thermal and electrical system dynamic behaviors have not been fully investigated. This is technically challenging due to the complex thermo-fluid-mechanical energy conversion processes which introduce multiple time-scale dynamics and strong nonlinearity into the analysis. To tackle this problem, this paper proposes a simplified model which can predict the coupled thermal and electric output dynamics of microturbines. Considering the time-scale difference of various dynamic processes occuring within microturbines, the electromechanical subsystem is treated as a fast quasi-linear process while the thermo-mechanical subsystem is treated as a slow process with high nonlinearity. A three-stage subspace identification method is utilized to capture the dominant dynamics and predict the electric power output. For the thermo-mechanical process, a radial basis function model trained by the particle swarm optimization method is employed to handle the strong nonlinear characteristics. Experimental tests on a Capstone C30 microturbine show that the proposed modeling method can well capture the system dynamics and produce a good prediction of the coupled thermal and electric outputs in various operating modes.

Parallel Cyclostationarity-Exploiting Algorithm for Energy-Efficient Spectrum Sensing

The evolution of wireless communication systems leads to Dynamic Spectrum Allocation for Cognitive Radio, which requires reliable spectrum sensing techniques. Among the spectrum sensing methods proposed in the literature, those that exploit cyclostationary characteristics of radio signals are particularly suitable for communication environments with low signal-to-noise ratios, or with non-stationary noise. However, such methods have high computational complexity that directly raises the power consumption of devices which often have very stringent low-power requirements. We propose a strategy for cyclostationary spectrum sensing with reduced energy consumption. This strategy is based on the principle that p processors working at slower frequencies consume less power than a single processor for the same execution time. We devise a strict relation between the energy savings and common parallel system metrics. The results of simulations show that our strategy promises very significant savings in actual devices.

Revised Iowa State Energy Conservation Plan : 1979 - 1980, 1979

The Revised Iowa Energy Conservation Plan: 1979-1980 is a blue print for the state's continued participation. The original Plan contained descriptions of more than 70 programs underway or conceived for state implementation with federal dollars. The Revised Plan contains only those programs to be funded in Federal dollars. The projects include five mandatory programs identified by DOE and several projects selected for funding by the Iowa Energy Policy Council (EPC), the policy making board which governs the state energy agency. The 18-member Council selected the conservation programs at its March 20-21, 1979 meeting. The Council retains the right to amend both the Plan and the budget at any time for the duration of the three-year program.