A correlation sensitivity analysis of non-life underwriting risk in solvency capital requirement estimation

This paper analyses the impact of using different correlation assumptions between lines of business when estimating the risk-based capital reserve, the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR), under Solvency II regulations. A case study is presented and the SCR is calculated according to the Standard Model approach. Alternatively, the requirement is then calculated using an Internal Model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the net underwriting result at a one-year horizon, with copulas being used to model the dependence between lines of business. To address the impact of these model assumptions on the SCR we conduct a sensitivity analysis. We examine changes in the correlation matrix between lines of business and address the choice of copulas. Drawing on aggregate historical data from the Spanish non-life insurance market between 2000 and 2009, we conclude that modifications of the correlation and dependence assumptions have a significant impact on SCR estimation.

How The 1996 Hotel Majestic agreement may explain a future PP/CiU relationship in Madrid

Some historians have argued that 1996 marked a ‘second transition’ for Spain because of the return to power of the political right in Madrid and that the relationship and eventual pact between the Partido Popular (PP) and Convergència i Unió (CiU) meant that the state could finally escape the ghosts of its Francoist past. For this research, face-to-face interviews were conducted with Catalan Members of Parliament who served under either José María Aznar or Jordi Pujol in Madrid or Barcelona. Drawing upon both interviews and other evidence, including the analysis of election results and the 1996 Hotel Majestic Agreement, the research seeks to provide a better understanding of the previous relationships between the PP and CiU and their leaders in order to understand what lessons might be learnt that would contribute to anticipating and explaining possible future negotiations between the two parties. This is attempted by first examining the potential costs and benefits of political pacts between centre (Madrid) and periphery (Barcelona). Secondly, due to many interviewees making reference to Salvador Espriu’s work La Pell de Brau, the three routes of Espriu’s Catalan nationalism are put into the context of the political pacts. Finally, the likelihood of future agreements between PP and CiU are hypothesized, not only how those agreements may (or may not) come about, but also, what might the result of those negotiations be. Ultimately, it is concluded that the benefits of the Hotel Majestic Agreement outweighed the costs, thus leaving the door open for future negotiations, even if some of those interviewed disagreed.

IPH gives evidence to NI Assembly Health Committee Inquiry into Obesity

IPH Chief Executive, Dr Jane Wilde gave evidence to the Northern Ireland Assembly Health Committee inquiry into obesity. Dr Wilde recommended the following: Supporting the Department of Health’s strategic approach based on an understanding of the nature and complexity of obesity. Urgent and short term action to coordinate current activities and ensure focus on the most vulnerable. Exploring new forms and incentives to promote cross departmental work. Setting intermediate outcomes and targets Building stronger links between research, policy and practice, for example asking the Health Committee to set up a round table of researchers and policy makers Working systematically and transparently to identify key areas for cooperation with UK, Ireland and Europe Drawing from IPH work and other research, Dr Wilde briefed the Health Committee on the extent and impact of obesity, reasons for rising levels of obesity and the need for a stronger strategic response. She highlighted the importance of cross government action, the responsibilities of those beyond the health sector and the need for stronger evidence-informed policy and practice.

Driving competition in local gasoline markets

Relevant market definition is still a key element of economic analysis of competition in the gasoline market. It is particularly difficult to handle when competition is local and market power is geographically constrained like is the case in the gasoline market. We analyse how the application of the hypothetical monopolist or Small but Significant Non-Transitory Increase in Prices (SSNIP) test performs for defining isochrones using only information on prices and distance among competitors. We conclude that geographic information systems can be very successfully used to define more precisely relevant geographic market in the gasoline retailing. The application to the Spanish gasoline market concludes that geographic relevant market is composed by 5-6 minutes of travel time. Localised market power should be taken into account when analysing the adverse effects of mergers and entry regulations in gasoline retailing. Only drawing small enough isochrones will drive competition in local markets because it is just close rivals that compete effectively with each other.

Quantitative integration of geophysical and hydraulic data : from the local towards the regional scale range

Des progrès significatifs ont été réalisés dans le domaine de l'intégration quantitative des données géophysique et hydrologique l'échelle locale. Cependant, l'extension à de plus grandes échelles des approches correspondantes constitue encore un défi majeur. Il est néanmoins extrêmement important de relever ce défi pour développer des modèles fiables de flux des eaux souterraines et de transport de contaminant. Pour résoudre ce problème, j'ai développé une technique d'intégration des données hydrogéophysiques basée sur une procédure bayésienne de simulation séquentielle en deux étapes. Cette procédure vise des problèmes à plus grande échelle. L'objectif est de simuler la distribution d'un paramètre hydraulique cible à partir, d'une part, de mesures d'un paramètre géophysique pertinent qui couvrent l'espace de manière exhaustive, mais avec une faible résolution (spatiale) et, d'autre part, de mesures locales de très haute résolution des mêmes paramètres géophysique et hydraulique. Pour cela, mon algorithme lie dans un premier temps les données géophysiques de faible et de haute résolution à travers une procédure de réduction déchelle. Les données géophysiques régionales réduites sont ensuite reliées au champ du paramètre hydraulique à haute résolution. J'illustre d'abord l'application de cette nouvelle approche dintégration des données à une base de données synthétiques réaliste. Celle-ci est constituée de mesures de conductivité hydraulique et électrique de haute résolution réalisées dans les mêmes forages ainsi que destimations des conductivités électriques obtenues à partir de mesures de tomographic de résistivité électrique (ERT) sur l'ensemble de l'espace. Ces dernières mesures ont une faible résolution spatiale. La viabilité globale de cette méthode est testée en effectuant les simulations de flux et de transport au travers du modèle original du champ de conductivité hydraulique ainsi que du modèle simulé. Les simulations sont alors comparées. Les résultats obtenus indiquent que la procédure dintégration des données proposée permet d'obtenir des estimations de la conductivité en adéquation avec la structure à grande échelle ainsi que des predictions fiables des caractéristiques de transports sur des distances de moyenne à grande échelle. Les résultats correspondant au scénario de terrain indiquent que l'approche d'intégration des données nouvellement mise au point est capable d'appréhender correctement les hétérogénéitées à petite échelle aussi bien que les tendances à gande échelle du champ hydraulique prévalent. Les résultats montrent également une flexibilté remarquable et une robustesse de cette nouvelle approche dintégration des données. De ce fait, elle est susceptible d'être appliquée à un large éventail de données géophysiques et hydrologiques, à toutes les gammes déchelles. Dans la deuxième partie de ma thèse, j'évalue en détail la viabilité du réechantillonnage geostatique séquentiel comme mécanisme de proposition pour les méthodes Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) appliquées à des probmes inverses géophysiques et hydrologiques de grande dimension . L'objectif est de permettre une quantification plus précise et plus réaliste des incertitudes associées aux modèles obtenus. En considérant une série dexemples de tomographic radar puits à puits, j'étudie deux classes de stratégies de rééchantillonnage spatial en considérant leur habilité à générer efficacement et précisément des réalisations de la distribution postérieure bayésienne. Les résultats obtenus montrent que, malgré sa popularité, le réechantillonnage séquentiel est plutôt inefficace à générer des échantillons postérieurs indépendants pour des études de cas synthétiques réalistes, notamment pour le cas assez communs et importants où il existe de fortes corrélations spatiales entre le modèle et les paramètres. Pour résoudre ce problème, j'ai développé un nouvelle approche de perturbation basée sur une déformation progressive. Cette approche est flexible en ce qui concerne le nombre de paramètres du modèle et lintensité de la perturbation. Par rapport au rééchantillonage séquentiel, cette nouvelle approche s'avère être très efficace pour diminuer le nombre requis d'itérations pour générer des échantillons indépendants à partir de la distribution postérieure bayésienne. - Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale. However, extending corresponding approaches beyond the local scale still represents a major challenge, yet is critically important for the development of reliable groundwater flow and contaminant transport models. To address this issue, I have developed a hydrogeophysical data integration technique based on a two-step Bayesian sequential simulation procedure that is specifically targeted towards larger-scale problems. The objective is to simulate the distribution of a target hydraulic parameter based on spatially exhaustive, but poorly resolved, measurements of a pertinent geophysical parameter and locally highly resolved, but spatially sparse, measurements of the considered geophysical and hydraulic parameters. To this end, my algorithm links the low- and high-resolution geophysical data via a downscaling procedure before relating the downscaled regional-scale geophysical data to the high-resolution hydraulic parameter field. I first illustrate the application of this novel data integration approach to a realistic synthetic database consisting of collocated high-resolution borehole measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities and spatially exhaustive, low-resolution electrical conductivity estimates obtained from electrical resistivity tomography (ERT). The overall viability of this method is tested and verified by performing and comparing flow and transport simulations through the original and simulated hydraulic conductivity fields. The corresponding results indicate that the proposed data integration procedure does indeed allow for obtaining faithful estimates of the larger-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and reliable predictions of the transport characteristics over medium- to regional-scale distances. The approach is then applied to a corresponding field scenario consisting of collocated high- resolution measurements of the electrical conductivity, as measured using a cone penetrometer testing (CPT) system, and the hydraulic conductivity, as estimated from electromagnetic flowmeter and slug test measurements, in combination with spatially exhaustive low-resolution electrical conductivity estimates obtained from surface-based electrical resistivity tomography (ERT). The corresponding results indicate that the newly developed data integration approach is indeed capable of adequately capturing both the small-scale heterogeneity as well as the larger-scale trend of the prevailing hydraulic conductivity field. The results also indicate that this novel data integration approach is remarkably flexible and robust and hence can be expected to be applicable to a wide range of geophysical and hydrological data at all scale ranges. In the second part of my thesis, I evaluate in detail the viability of sequential geostatistical resampling as a proposal mechanism for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods applied to high-dimensional geophysical and hydrological inverse problems in order to allow for a more accurate and realistic quantification of the uncertainty associated with the thus inferred models. Focusing on a series of pertinent crosshole georadar tomographic examples, I investigated two classes of geostatistical resampling strategies with regard to their ability to efficiently and accurately generate independent realizations from the Bayesian posterior distribution. The corresponding results indicate that, despite its popularity, sequential resampling is rather inefficient at drawing independent posterior samples for realistic synthetic case studies, notably for the practically common and important scenario of pronounced spatial correlation between model parameters. To address this issue, I have developed a new gradual-deformation-based perturbation approach, which is flexible with regard to the number of model parameters as well as the perturbation strength. Compared to sequential resampling, this newly proposed approach was proven to be highly effective in decreasing the number of iterations required for drawing independent samples from the Bayesian posterior distribution.

Narrative Diagrammatik. Mit einer Modellanalyse: Die Diagrammatik des "Decameron"

Taking as a starting point the seeming inconsistency of late-medieval romances notoriously 'run wild' (verwildert), this article is concerned with the description of an abstract form of narrative coherence that is based on the notion of the diagrammatic. In a first section, this concept is illustrated in a simplified manner by an analysis of Boccaccio's Decameron based on two levels of spatial structure: that of the autograph Berlin manuscript (Codex Hamilton 90) and that of the recipient's mental visualisation of the relations between the frame and the tales of the work. It is argued that the connectivity of the work as a whole depends on the perception of those two spatial representations of the plot. A second section develops this concept in a more theoretical fashion, drawing on Charles Sanders Peirce's notion of diagrammatic reasoning as a way of perceiving relations through mental and material topological representations. Correspondingly, a view of narrative is proposed that does not depend on the traditional perspective of temporal sequence but emphasizes the spatial structure of literary narrative. It is argued that these conditions form the primary ontological mode of narrative, whereas the temporal development of a story is an aesthetic illusion that has been specifically stimulated by the narrative conventions of approximately the past three centuries and must thus be considered a secondary effect. To conclude, an interpretation in miniature of an aspect of Heinrich von Neustadt's Apollonius von Tyrland that seems to have 'run wild' is undertaken from a diagrammatic perspective.

Regional Advisory Committee on Cancer - Second Report 2002 (PDF 132 KB)

Regional Advisory Committee on Cancer (RACC) was established in 1997 to carry forward the recommendations of the Campbell Report of 1996 and to provide advice to the Department of Health and Social Services on the future development of cancer services. The Committee meets twice a year and its membership (Appendix I) is an indication of the wide range of interests involved in Cancer Care across the community. This report records some of the key developments in cancer services over the last 3 years. åÊ Significant progress has been made toward developing a high quality and integrated cancer care network. All five Cancer Units are now operational with chemotherapy and outpatient services for the most common forms of cancer are delivered from these locations. Agreement to the start of the new Cancer Centre, at the Belfast City Hospital, currently estimated to cost å£58m, is expected shortly. As a temporary expedient two additional therapy machines will be installed in Belvoir Park Hospital to increase capacity while the building of the new Cancer Centre proceeds. åÊ To deliver high quality cancer care the workforce needs to continue to expand. This requires increasing investment in the training of professional staff in the context of an already difficult HPSS labour market. The development of the five Cancer Units has increased staff mobility in the short-term, drawing skilled staff away from the centre who have been difficult to replace. At the same time increasing numbers of patients are being offered effective therapies at both the Cancer Units and the Centre. åÊ This report contains a review of selected developments in cancer care. The first section introduces the Memorandum of Understanding and the Tripartite Agreement between the National Cancer Institute of the USA and the Health Departments both North and South. This is a unique international partnership, which promises to bring very significant advantages to both the service and research communities across the Island. åÊ åÊ åÊ

Coffee consumption and digestive tract cancers.

The relationship between coffee drinking and the risk of digestive tract neoplasms was analyzed in a case-control study of 50 cases of cancer of the mouth or pharynx, 209 of the esophagus, 397 of the stomach, 455 of the colon, 295 of the rectum, 151 of the liver, 214 of the pancreas, and 1944 control subjects admitted for acute, non-digestive tract disorders. There was no significant or consistent association between coffee and cancers of the mouth or pharynx, esophagus, stomach, liver, or pancreas. In particular, for pancreatic cancer, the multivariate relative risks for the intermediate and upper tertiles were 1.05 and 1.01, respectively. There were significant inverse trends in risk with measures of coffee consumption for colon and rectal cancers, the multivariate relative risks according to tertiles of coffee consumption being 0.86 and 0.64 for colon and 0.97 and 0.66 for rectum. This apparent protection is in agreement with some (but not all) previous epidemiological evidence and finds a possible biological interpretation in terms of interference on bile secretion, causing reduced bile acid and neutral sterol concentrations in the bowel. In conclusion, the results of this study, the major interest of which lies in the opportunity of drawing up an overall pattern of risk for various digestive neoplasms, offer further reassurance as regards the effects of coffee on digestive tract carcinogenesis.

Wissensvermehrung durch Konzeptentwicklung? Das Beispiel Vergänglichkeit [The contibution of concept development to nursing knowledge? The example of Transitoriness].

To provide nursing practice with evidence, it is important to understand nursing phenomena in detail. Therefore, good descriptions including the identification of characteristics and attributes of nursing phenomena on various levels of abstraction, i. e., concepts, are needed. In this article the significance of concept development for nursing science will be demonstrated by drawing on the example of 'transitoriness'. The evolutionary concept analysis proposed by Rodgers (2000) is introduced in more detail. Drawing on transitoriness, the phenomenon is presented with the help of the evolutionary concept analysis by Rodgers (2000). The phenomenon's characteristics and attributes are identified, as well as potential areas of application. Moreover, areas are outlined, in which interventions for nursing practice can be developed, implemented and evaluated. Thus, nursing practice is updated to include new findings and innovation. Through concept analysis nursing phenomena can be described in more detail, enhanced or broadened for use in nursing practice. Such structured processes as concept analysis can be employed successfully for other nursing phenomena. Concept analyses can lead to the identification of tasks for the respective scientific discipline and professionals. Thus, concept analyses can lead to the concretisation of tasks in nursing.

The category 'natural' in the discourse of couples who used medically assisted procreation

As a constantly evolving set of complex biotechnologies, medically assisted procreation (MAP) jeopardises a category that seems to be taken for granted: that of 'natural'. What is 'natural' or not when MAP is used to procreate? What are the boundaries between a 'natural' and a 'non-natural' fertilisation? Drawing upon a dialogical approach to language and cognition, our study examined the semantic field of the category 'natural' as expressed in interviews between a psychiatrist and seven couples who resorted to MAP and had to decide whether to keep their frozen pre-embryonic cells (zygotes) for further procreation or to allow them be destroyed. We examined how these couples evoked the category 'natural' and showed that in their argumentation, the category 'natural' encompassed a wide variety of phenomena, which shifted the boundaries between the 'natural' and 'non-natural'. In so doing, the couples 'renaturalised' MAP, normalized it, moved the boundaries between what is legitimate or not, and showed their accountability. Hence, reference to the category 'natural' seemed to act both as an argumentative and a psychological resource in the elaboration of the person's experience in resorting to MAP.

Hungry for Change: Social Exclusion, Food Poverty and Homelessness in Dublin

This study investigates the impact of poverty and social exclusion on the food, diet and nutrition of people out-of-home in Dublin. The research involved a food frequency survey carried out with 75 people out of home, qualitative interviews with 12 individuals as well as a self-completion questionnaire administered to 18 food service providers in Dublin city. One of the main findings from the study was that the extent and experience of food poverty among homeless people was not only conditioned by income inadequacy and other socio-economic and cultural determinants, but particularly, by access to accommodation, as well as the quality of that accommodation. The report makes a number of practice and policy recommendations to tackle food poverty and homelessness. The qualitative approaches to food poverty employed for use with this sample of people out-of-home aimed to deal in depth with issues around food consumption. Through drawing a sub-sample from those who participated in the survey research (a process of recapture), the authors sought to expand on the survey questionnaire information on food issues. The themes for the Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) emerged from the analysis of the survey questionnaires and 4 key thematic areas were selected. i) Access to cooking, preparation and storage facilities ii) Access, choice and constraints in food purchase and consumption iii) Access to information about healthy diet, food preparation and storage iv) Expectations, cultures, values and choice concerning eating The qualitative aspect of the research enquiry eventually generated one FGD and seven semi-structured interviews representing the views of a total of 12 persons all of whom had completed the initial survey questionnaire.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Growing up in Ireland. Key findings: 13-year-olds. No. 2. Physical activity and obesity among 13-year-olds.

This Key Finding reports on data from the second wave of interviews with Growing Up in Ireland's Child Cohort. The 8,568 children and their families were first interviewed when the children were 9 years old, and then at age 13 years, when 7,400 were reinterviewed between August 2011 and February 2012.The findings show that boys and young people from more socially advantaged backgrounds were more likely to exercise, and that 13-year-olds who took more exercise (whether hard or light exercise) were less likely to be overweight or obese.While most of the young people in Growing Up in Ireland maintained a healthy weight over time, one in four was either overweight or obese, a finding similar to that at 9 years. Girls were also more likely to be classified as overweight or obese than boys. The majority of 13-year-olds were quite positive about their physical appearance, although a quarter rated themselves as below average in this respect, and girls tended to be less positive about their body image than boys. Dieting behaviours had also become evident at 13.To understand more fully the origins and course of overweight and obesity, the descriptive data in this Key Finding can be used in more complex analyses drawing on the rich data available on the child, family and other important contextual variables.This resource was contributed by the National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Genetic polymorphism of the serine rich antigen N-terminal region in Plasmodium falciparum field isolates from Brazil

In this work we investigated the frequency of polymorphism in exon II of the gene encoding most of the amino-terminal region of the serine rich antigen (SERA) in Plasmodium falciparum field samples. The blood samples were colleted from P. falciparum infected individuals in three areas of the Brazilian Amazon. Two fragments have been characterized by polymerase chain reaction: one of 175 bp corresponding to the repeat region with 5 octamer units and one other of 199 bp related to the 6 repeat octamer units of SERA protein. The 199 bp fragment was the predominant one in all the studied areas. The higher frequency of this fragment has not been described before and could be explained by an immunological selection of the plasmodial population in the infected individuals under study. Since repeat motifs in the amino-terminal region of SERA contain epitopes recognized by parasite-inhibitor antibodies, data reported here suggest that the analysis of the polymorphism of P. falciparum isolates in different geographical areas is a preliminary stage before the final drawing of an universal vaccine against malaria can be reached.

Estudio de accesibilidad de sitios Weborientados al comercio electrónico y a laprestación de servicios

Anàlisi de diverses pàgines que tinguin com a finalitat el comerç electrònic o la prestació de serveis, de cara a trobar els principals problemes a què s'enfronten les persones amb discapacitat en utilitzar aquests llocs i extreure conclusions per proposar possibles procediments de desenvolupament dels mateixos que facilitin la seva accessibilitat / usabilitat final.

4th annual conference on Clinical Trials in Alzheimer's Disease: Highlights

��In a sign that researchers are grappling with therapy development, the 4th annual conference on Clinical Trials in Alzheimer's Disease was filled beyond its venue's capacity, drawing 522 researchers from around the globe. Held 3-5 November 2011 in San Diego, CTAD is the brainchild of Paul Aisen, Jacques Touchon, Bruno Vellas, and Michael Weiner. The conference posted no ringing trial successes. Instead, scientists worked on methodological aspects they hope will improve future trials' chances. They discussed Bayesian models, simulated placebos, and biomarker data standards. They presented alternative outcome measures to the ADAS-cog, ranging widely from composite scales that are sensitive early on to continuous measures that encompass a patients' day-to-day variability. They focused on EEG, and on a collective effort to develop patient-reported outcomes. Highlights include:Whence and Where To: History and Future of AD Therapy Trials��Webinar: Evolution of AD Trials��Nutrient Formulation Appears to Grease Memory Function��Door Slams on RAGE��Clinical Trials: Making "Protocols From Hell" Less Burdensome��EEG: Coming in From the Margins of Alzheimer's Research?��EEG: Old Method to Lend New Help in AD Drug Development?������