Price forecasting in the day-ahead Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations Arima model

Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.

Desirable role in an international duopoly model with tariffs

In this paper, we study an international market model in which the home government imposes a tariff on the imported goods. The model has two stages. In the first stage, the home government chooses an import tariff to maximize a function that cares about the home firm’s profit and the total revenue. Then, the firms engage in a Cournot or in a Stackelberg competition. We compare the results obtained in the three different ways of moving on the decision make of the firms.

Testing native speakers of German and Portuguese on the understanding of topological operators-line-region relations in gvSIG

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Single side damage simulations and detection in beam-like structures

Beam-like structures are the most common components in real engineering, while single side damage is often encountered. In this study, a numerical analysis of single side damage in a free-free beam is analysed with three different finite element models; namely solid, shell and beam models for demonstrating their performance in simulating real structures. Similar to experiment, damage is introduced into one side of the beam, and natural frequencies are extracted from the simulations and compared with experimental and analytical results. Mode shapes are also analysed with modal assurance criterion. The results from simulations reveal a good performance of the three models in extracting natural frequencies, and solid model performs better than shell while shell model performs better than beam model under intact state. For damaged states, the natural frequencies captured from solid model show more sensitivity to damage severity than shell model and shell model performs similar to the beam model in distinguishing damage. The main contribution of this paper is to perform a comparison between three finite element models and experimental data as well as analytical solutions. The finite element results show a relatively well performance.

Novel Secretion Apparatus Maintains Spore Integrity and Developmental Gene Expression in Bacillus subtilis

Plos Genetics, 5(7): ARTe1000566

A Random Access Protocol incorporating Multi-Packet Reception, Retransmission Diversity and Successive Interference Cancellation

8th International Workshop on Multiple Access Communications (MACOM2015), Helsinki, Finland.

Clinical and Bacteriological Survey of Diabetic Foot Infections in Lisbon

AIMS: An epidemiological survey of diabetic foot infections (DFIs) in Lisbon, stratifying the bacterial profile based on patient demographical data, diabetic foot characteristics (PEDIS classification), ulcer duration and antibiotic therapy. METHODS: A transversal observational multicenter study, with clinical data collection using a structured questionnaire and microbiological products (aspirates, biopsies or swabs collected using the Levine method) of clinically infected foot ulcers of patients with diabetes mellitus (DM). RESULTS: Forty-nine hospitalized and ambulatory patients were enrolled in this study, and 147 microbial isolates were cultured. Staphylococcus was the main genus identified, and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) was present in 24.5% of total cases. In the clinical samples collected from patients undergoing antibiotic therapy, 93% of the antibiotic regimens were considered inadequate based on the antibiotic susceptibility test results. The average duration of an ulcer with any isolated multi-drug resistant (MDR) organism was 29 days, and previous treatment with fluoroquinolones was statistically associated with multi-drug resistance. CONCLUSIONS: Staphylococcus aureus was the most common cause of DFIs in our area. Prevalence and precocity of MDR organisms, namely MRSA, were high and were probably related to previous indiscriminate antibiotic use. Clinicians should avoid fluoroquinolones and more frequently consider the use of empirical anti-MRSA therapy.

Delineating environmental groundwater vulnerability and protection zones mapping in fractured rock masses

Hard‐rock watersheds commonly exhibit complex geological bedrock and morphological features. Hydromineral resources have relevant economic value for the thermal spas industry. The present study aims to develop a groundwater vulnerability approach in Caldas da Cavaca hydromineral system (Aguiar da Beira, Central Portugal) which has a thermal tradition that dates back to the late 19th century, and contribute to a better understanding of the hydrogeological conceptual site model. In this work different layers were overlaid, generating several thematic maps to arrive at an integrated framework of several key‐sectors in Caldas da Cavaca site. Thus, to accomplish a comprehensive analysis and conceptualization of the site, a multi‐technical approach was used, such as, field and laboratory techniques, where several data was collected, like geotectonics, hydrology and hydrogeology, hydrogeomorphology, hydrogeophysical and hydrogeomechanical zoning aiming the application of the so‐called DISCO method. All these techniques were successfully performed and a groundwater vulnerability to contamination assessment, based on GOD‐S, DRASTIC‐Fm, SINTACS, SI and DISCO indexes methodology, was delineated. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) technology was on the basis to organise and integrate the geodatabases and to produce all the thematic maps. This multi‐technical approach highlights the importance of groundwater vulnerability to contamination mapping as a tool to support hydrogeological conceptualisation, contributing to better decision‐making of water resources management and sustainability.

Spatial analysis and investigation of fire events occurrences in the Valencian Community, Spain

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

SEROVARS AND ANTIMICROBIAL RESISTANCE OF Salmonella spp. ISOLATED FROM TURKEY AND BROILER CARCASSES IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL BETWEEN 2004 AND 2006

Salmonella spp. causes diseases in fowls, when species-specific serovars (Salmonella Pullorum and S.Gallinarum) are present in flocks, and public health problems, when non-typhoid serovars are isolated, as well as possible bacterial resistance induced by the preventive and therapeutic use of antimicrobials in animal production. This study describes the serovars and bacterial resistance of 280Salmonella spp. strains isolated from turkey and broiler carcasses in Southern Brazil between 2004 and 2006. SalmonellaEnteritidis was the most prevalent serovar (55.7%), followed by Heidelberg (5.0%), Agona (4.3%), Bredeney (3.9%), Hadar (3.2%), and Typhimurium (2.9%). Tennessee and S. Enterica subspecies enterica(O: 4.5) were isolated only in turkeys, and Hadar (18.6%) was the most prevalent serovar in this species. Antimicrobial susceptibility tests were performed in 178 isolates (43 from turkeys and 135 from broilers). All isolates were sensitive to amoxicillin + clavulanic acid, polymyxin B, ciprofloxacin, and norfloxacin, and were resistant to bacitracin and penicillin. Broiler carcass isolates showed resistance to nalidixic acid (48.9%), nitrofurantoin (34.3%), neomycin (9.6%), tetracycline (5.2%), and kanamycin (8.9%); and turkey carcass isolates were resistant to nalidixic acid (62.8%), tetracycline (34.9%), and neomycin (30.2%), with a significant difference in turkeys when compared to broiler carcass isolates. These results indicate the need for judicious use of antimicrobials in livestock production, given that the serovars identified are potential causes of food poisoning.

Watershed-scale runoff routing and solute transport in a spatially aggregated hydrological framework

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Indoor location-based analytics systems: Portuguese market compettive assessment and entry procing strategy of BIPs' technology in Sonae Sierra Shopping malls stores

This project attempts to provide an in-depth competitive assessment of the Portuguese indoor location-based analytics market, and to elaborate an entry-pricing strategy for Business Intelligence Positioning System (BIPS) implementation in Portuguese shopping centre stores. The role of industry forces and company’s organizational resources platform to sustain company’s competitive advantage was explored. A customer value-based pricing approach was adopted to assess BIPS value to retailers and maximize Sonae Sierra profitability. The exploratory quantitative research found that there is a market opportunity to explore every store area types with tailored proposals, and to set higher-than-tested membership fees to allow a rapid ROI, concluding there are propitious conditions for Sierra to succeed in BIPS store’s business model in Portugal.

Multidrug resistance genes, including blaKPC and blaCTX-M-2, among Klebsiella pneumoniae isolated in Recife, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: The prevalence of cephalosporins and carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae strains is rising in Brazil, with potential serious consequences in terms of patients' outcomes and general care. METHODS: This study characterized 24 clinical isolates of K. pneumoniae from two hospitals in Recife, Brazil, through the antimicrobial susceptibility profile, analyses of β-lactamase genes (blaTEM, blaSHV,blaCTX-MblaKPC, blaVIM, blaIMP, and blaSPM), plasmidial profile and ERIC-PCR (Enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus-polymerase chain reaction). RESULTS: ERIC-PCR and plasmidial analysis grouped the isolates in 17 and 19 patterns, respectively. Six isolates from one hospital presented the same pattern by ERIC-PCR, indicating clonal dissemination. All isolates presented blaSHV, 62.5% presented blaCTX-M-2, 29% blaTEM, and 41.7% blaKPC. Metallo-β-lactamase genes blaand blawere not detected. Eleven isolates were identified carrying at least 3 β-lactamase studied genes, and 2 isolates carried blaSHVblaTEM, blaCTX-M-2 and blaKPC simultaneously. CONCLUSIONS: The accumulation of resistance genes in some strains, observed in this study, imposes limitations in the therapeutic options available for the treatment of infections caused by K. pneumoniae in Recife, Brazil. These results should alert the Brazilian medical authorities to establish rigorous methods for more efficiently control the dissemination of antimicrobial resistance genes in the hospital environment.

Concordance between expected and observed bacilloscopy results of clinical forms of leprosy: a 6-year retrospective study in Recife, State of Pernambuco, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Operational classification of leprosy based on the number of skin lesions was conceived to screen patients presenting severe forms of the disease to enable their reception of a more intense multidrug regimen without having to undergo lymph smear testing. We evaluated the concordance between operational classification and bacilloscopy to define multibacillary and paucibacillary leprosy. METHODS: We selected 1,213 records of individuals with leprosy, who were untreated (new cases) and admitted to a dermatology clinic in Recife, Brazil, from 2000 to 2005, and who underwent bacteriological examination at diagnosis for ratification of the operational classification. RESULTS: Compared to bacilloscopy, operational classification demonstrated 88.6% sensitivity, 76.9% specificity, a positive predictive value of 61.8%, and a negative predictive value of 94.1%, with 80% accuracy and a moderate kappa index. Among the bacilloscopy-negative cases, 23% had more than 5 skin lesions. Additionally, 11% of the bacilloscopy-positive cases had up to 5 lesions, which would have led to multibacillary cases being treated as paucibacillary leprosy if the operational classification had not been confirmed by bacilloscopy. CONCLUSIONS: Operational classification has limitations that are more obvious in borderline cases, suggesting that in these cases, lymph smear testing is advisable to enable the selection of true multibacillary cases for more intense treatment, thereby contributing to minimization of resistant strain selection and possible relapse.

Phenotypic and molecular characterization of antimicrobial resistance and virulence factors in Pseudomonas aeruginosa clinical isolates from Recife, State of Pernambuco, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: The emergence of carbapenem resistance mechanisms in Pseudomonas aeruginosa has been outstanding due to the wide spectrum of antimicrobial degradation of these bacteria, reducing of therapeutic options. METHODS: Sixty-one clinical strains of P. aeruginosa isolated from five public hospitals in Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil, were examined between 2006 and 2010, aiming of evaluating the profiles of virulence, resistance to antimicrobials, presence of metallo-β-lactamase (MBL) genes, and clonal relationship among isolates. RESULTS: A high percentage of virulence factors (34.4% mucoid colonies; 70.5% pyocyanin; 93.4% gelatinase positives; and 72.1% hemolysin positive) and a high percentage of antimicrobial resistance rates (4.9% pan-resistant and 54.1% multi-drug resistant isolates) were observed. Among the 29 isolates resistant to imipenem and/or ceftazidime, 44.8% (13/29) were MBL producers by phenotypic evaluation, and of these, 46.2% (6/13) were positive for the blaSPM-1 gene. The blaIMP and blaVIM genes were not detected. The molecular typing revealed 21 molecular profiles of which seven were detected in distinct hospitals and periods. Among the six positive blaSPM-1 isolates, three presented the same clonal profile and were from the same hospital, whereas the other three presented different clonal profiles. CONCLUSIONS: These results revealed that P. aeruginosa is able to accumulate different resistance and virulence factors, making the treatment of infections difficult. The identification of blaSPM-1 genes and the dissemination of clones in different hospitals, indicate the need for stricter application of infection control measures in hospitals in Recife, Brazil, aiming at reducing costs and damages caused by P. aeruginosa infections.