Innovative tools to address drought risk in grazing lands

Drought spells can impose severe impacts in most vulnerable farms. It is well known that uninsured exposure exacerbates income inequality in farming systems. However, high administrative costs of traditional insurance hinder small farmers? access to risk management tools. The existence of moral hazard and systemic risk prevents the implementation of traditional insurance programs to address drought risk in rural areas. Innovative technologies like satellite images are being used to derive vegetation index which are highly correlated with drought impacts. The implementation of this technology in agricultural insurance may help to overcome some of the limitations of traditional insurance. However, basis risk has been identified as one of the main problems that hinder the acceptance of index insurance. In this paper we focus on the analyses of basis risk under different contract options in the grazing lands of the Araucanía region. A vegetation index database is used to develop an actuarial insurance model and estimate risk premiums for moderate and severe drought coverage. Risk premium sharply increases with risk coverage. In contrast with previous findings in the literature, our results are not conclusive and show that lowering the coverage level does not necessarily imply a reduction in basis risk. Further analyses of the relation between contract design and basis risk is a promising area of research that may render an important social utility for most vulnerable farming systems.

Hydrogen embrittlement risk of high strength galvanized steel in contact with alkaline media

The critical conditions for hydrogenembrittlement (HE) risk of highstrengthgalvanizedsteel (HSGS) wires and tendons exposed to alkaline concrete pore solutions have been evaluated by means of electrochemical and mechanical testing. There is a relationship between the hydrogenembrittlementrisk in HSGS and the length of hydrogen evolution process in alkalinemedia. The galvanizedsteel suffers anodic dissolution simultaneously to the hydrogen evolution which does not stop until the passivation process is completed. HSGS wires exposed to a very highalkalinemedia have showed HE risk with loss in mechanical properties only if long periods with hydrogen evolution process take place with a simultaneous intensive galvanized coating reduction.

Risk analysis for UAV safe operations: a rationalization for an agricultural environment

The road to the automation of the agricultural processes passes through the safe operation of the autonomous vehicles. This requirement is a fact in ground mobile units, but it still has not well defined for the aerial robots (UAVs) mainly because the normative and legislation are quite diffuse or even inexistent. Therefore, to define a common and global policy is the challenge to tackle. This characterization has to be addressed from the field experience. Accordingly, this paper presents the work done in this direction, based on the analysis of the most common sources of hazards when using UAV's for agricultural tasks. The work, based on the ISO 31000 normative, has been carried out by applying a three-step structure that integrates the identification, assessment and reduction procedures. The present paper exposes how this method has been applied to analyze previous accidents and malfunctions during UAV operations in order to obtain real failure causes. It has allowed highlighting common risks and hazardous sources and proposing specific guards and safety measures for the agricultural context.

Risk-based methodology for parameter calibration of a reservoir flood control model

Flash floods are of major relevance in natural disaster management in the Mediterranean region. In many cases, the damaging effects of flash floods can be mitigated by adequate management of flood control reservoirs. This requires the development of suitable models for optimal operation of reservoirs. A probabilistic methodology for calibrating the parameters of a reservoir flood control model (RFCM) that takes into account the stochastic variability of flood events is presented. This study addresses the crucial problem of operating reservoirs during flood events, considering downstream river damages and dam failure risk as conflicting operation criteria. These two criteria are aggregated into a single objective of total expected damages from both the maximum released flows and stored volumes (overall risk index). For each selected parameter set the RFCM is run under a wide range of hydrologic loads (determined through Monte Carlo simulation). The optimal parameter set is obtained through the overall risk index (balanced solution) and then compared with other solutions of the Pareto front. The proposed methodology is implemented at three different reservoirs in the southeast of Spain. The results obtained show that the balanced solution offers a good compromise between the two main objectives of reservoir flood control management

Evaluación de la vulnerabilidad sísmica urbana basada en tipologías constructivas y disposición urbana de la edificación. Aplicación en la ciudad de Lorca, región de Murcia

Actualmente, diversos terremotos han puesto de manifiesto la importancia de planificar las ciudades y la gran influencia que tiene el comportamiento de los edificios como consecuencia de los resultados de pérdidas humanas y económicas. Ante la imposibilidad de evitar la ocurrencia de terremotos y de predecirlos con un margen pequeño de tiempo para tomar acciones a corto plazo, la reducción de la vulnerabilidad de los elementos expuestos es la medida más eficaz para prevenir los daños y para evitar el desastre. Existen varios estudios anteriores de Norman B. Green (1980), Teresa Guevara López (2009 y 2012) que recogen criterios ya generalizados dentro de la bibliografía sísmica y algunos aspectos procedentes de norma sísmicas precursoras en este campo (por ejemplo, las peruanas) para establecer inicialmente unos principios urbanístico-sísmicos. Además, varios proyectos relacionados con el riesgo sísmico, RisK-Ue (2003), SERAMAR (Lars Abrahamczyk et al., 2013) han desarrollado metodologías que clasifican la vulnerabilidad de los edificios teniendo en cuenta modificadores por comportamientos y configuraciones irregulares sísmicamente. El presente trabajo desarrolla una metodología empírica para identificar y caracterizar los parámetros urbanísticos que determinan una respuesta sísmica irregular de las edificaciones, graduar su relación con el daño tras un terremoto y poder así disminuir la vulnerabilidad sísmica de las ciudades. La metodología desarrollada en esta tesis doctoral se aplica en la ciudad de Lorca, Región de Murcia. Se realiza un trabajo de campo donde se clasifican los edificios según su tipología estructural y sus parámetros urbanísticos. A través de un estudio estadístico se analiza la correlación con el daño de las edificaciones tras el terremoto del 11 de mayo de 2011. Previamente se ha hecho una clasificación de los edificios según la clase de suelo en la que se encuentran según el Eurocódigo8 (Navarro et al, 2012). Por último, se aplica la metodología para obtener una estimación de la habitabilidad de los edificios en Lorca post sismo. Para esta clasificación se ha adoptado el criterio recogido en diversas recomendaciones internacionales, la mayoría de las cuales se basan en la documentación generada por el ATC- Applied Technology Council, distinguiendo entre edificios habitables (no daño-daño no estructural) y edificios no habitables (daño estructural). ABSTRACT Currently, various earthquakes have made clear first, the importance of city planning and secondly, the great influence that has the behaviour of buildings as a consequence of the results of human and economic losses. Faced with the impossibility of avoiding the occurrence of earthquakes and predicting its with a small margin of time to take action in the short term, the reduction of the vulnerability of exposed elements is the most effective measure to prevent damage and to prevent the disaster. There are several previous studies, Norman B. Green (1980), Teresa Guevara López (2009-2012) collecting criteria already widespread within the seismic bibliography and we can find some aspects from standard seismic precursor in this field (for example, the Peruvian) to initially establish urban - seismic principles. In addition, several projects related to seismic risk, RisK-EU (2003), SERAMAR (Lars Abrahamczyk et al., 2013) have developed methodologies that classify the vulnerability of buildings taking into account modifiers for behaviours and irregular configurations in seismical terms. This paper develops an empirical methodology to identify and characterize the irregular urban parameters seismically, graduate its relationship with the building damages after an earthquake and thus reduce the seismic vulnerability of cities. The methodology developed in this thesis applies in the city of Lorca, Region of Murcia. Fieldwork where buildings are classified according to their structural type and its urban performance parameters. Through a statistical study the correlation with damage of buildings is analyzed after the earthquake of May 11, 2011. Previously a classification of the buildings has been made according to the kind of soil according to the Eurocodigo 8 (Navarro et al, 2012). Finally, you get an estimate of the building habitability in Lorca. As a result, this classification adopted the criterion contained in various international recommendations, most of which are based on the documentation published by the ATC - Applied Technology Council, habitable buildings (not damage -damage non-structural) and non habitable buildings (structural damage).

Modeling of dangerous phenomena and innovative techniques for hazard evaluation and risk mitigation

Society is frequently exposed to and threatened by dangerous phenomena in many parts of the world. Different types of such phenomena require specific actions for proper risk management, from the stages of hazard identification to those of mitigation (including monitoring and early-warning) and/or reduction. The understanding of both predisposing factors and triggering mechanisms of a given danger and the prediction of its evolution from the source to the overall affected zone are relevant issues that must be addressed to properly evaluate a given hazard.

Mitigating Risk For Anxiety Among Preschool-Age Children Living In Poverty: Evaluating The Impact Of Adult-Provided Social Support On Autonomic Stress Reactivity

Poverty increases children's exposure to stress, elevating their risk for developing patterns of heightened sympathetic and parasympathetic stress reactivity. Repeated patterns of high sympathetic activation and parasympathetic withdrawal place children at risk for anxiety disorders. This study evaluated whether providing social support to preschool-age children during mildly stressful situations helps reduce reactivity, and whether this effect partly depends on children's previously assessed baseline reactivity patterns. The Biological Sensitivity to Context (BSC) theory proposes that highly reactive children may be more sensitive than less reactive children to all environmental influences, including social support. In contrast, conventional physiological reactivity (CPR) theory contends that highly reactive children are more vulnerable to the impact of stress but are less receptive to the potential benefits present within their social environments. In this study, baseline autonomic reactivity patterns were measured. Children were then randomly assigned to a high-support or neutral control condition, and the effect of social support on autonomic response patterns was assessed. Results revealed an interaction between baseline reactivity profiles and experimental condition. Children with patterns of high-reactivity reaped more benefits from the social support in the experimental condition than did their less reactive peers. Highly reactive children experienced relatively less reactivity reduction in the neutral condition while experiencing relatively greater reactivity reduction in the support condition. Despite their demonstrated stability over time, reactivity patterns are also quite susceptible to change at this age; therefore understanding how social support ameliorates reactivity will further efforts to avert stable patterns of high-reactivity among children with high levels of stress, ultimately reducing risk for anxiety disorders.

Validation of the reduction of rear-end collisions by a high-mounted auxiliary stoplamp. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Pedestrian head injury reduction concepts. Final report.

Mode of access: Internet.

Estimates of global and regional potential health gains from reducing multiple major risk factors

Background Estimates of the disease burden due to multiple risk factors can show the potential gain from combined preventive measures. But few such investigations have been attempted, and none on a global scale. Our aim was to estimate the potential health benefits from removal of multiple major risk factors. Methods We assessed the burden of disease and injury attributable to the joint effects of 20 selected leading risk factors in 14 epidemiological subregions of the world. We estimated population attributable fractions, defined as the proportional reduction in disease or mortality that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to an alternative level, from data for risk factor prevalence and hazard size. For every disease, we estimated joint population attributable fractions, for multiple risk factors, by age and sex, from the direct contributions of individual risk factors. To obtain the direct hazards, we reviewed publications and re-analysed cohort data to account for that part of hazard that is mediated through other risks. Results Globally, an estimated 47% of premature deaths and 39% of total disease burden in 2000 resulted from the joint effects of the risk factors considered. These risks caused a substantial proportion of important diseases, including diarrhoea (92%-94%), lower respiratory infections (55-62%), lung cancer (72%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (60%), ischaemic heart disease (83-89%), and stroke (70-76%). Removal of these risks would have increased global healthy life expectancy by 9.3 years (17%) ranging from 4.4 years (6%) in the developed countries of the western Pacific to 16.1 years (43%) in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Removal of major risk factors would not only increase healthy life expectancy in every region, but also reduce some of the differences between regions, The potential for disease prevention and health gain from tackling major known risks simultaneously would be substantial.

Altered cell surface expression of human MC1R variant receptor alleles associated with red hair and skin cancer risk

The human melanocortin-1 receptor gene (MC1R) encodes a G-protein coupled receptor that is primarily expressed on melanocytes, where it plays a key role in pigmentation regulation. Variant alleles are associated with red hair colour and fair skin, known as the RHC phenotype, as well as skin cancer risk. The R151C, R160W and D294H alleles, designated 'R', are strongly associated with the RHC phenotype and have been proposed to result in loss of function receptors due to impaired G-protein coupling. We recently provided evidence that the R151C and R160W variants can efficiently couple to G-proteins in response to alpha-melanocyte stimulating hormone. The possibility that altered cellular localization of the R151C and R160W variant receptors could underlie their association with RHC was therefore considered. Using immunofluorescence and ligand binding studies, we found that melanocytic cells exogenously or endogenously expressing MC1R show strong surface localization of the wild-type and D294H alleles but markedly reduced cell surface expression of the R151C and R160W receptors. In additional exogenous expression studies, the R variant D84E and the rare I155T variant, also demonstrated a significant reduction in plasma membrane receptor numbers. The V60L, V92M and R163Q weakly associated RHC alleles, designated 'r', were expressed with normal or intermediate cell surface receptor levels. These results indicate that reduced receptor coupling activity may not be the only contributing factor to the genetic association between the MC1R variants and the RHC phenotype, with MC1R polymorphisms now linked to a change in receptor localization.

White blood cell count predicts reduction in coronary heart disease mortality with pravastatin

Background-Elevated serum inflammatory marker levels are associated with a greater long-term risk of cardiovascular events. Because 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme-A reductase inhibitors (statins) may have an antiinflammatory action, it has been suggested that patients with elevated inflammatory marker levels may have a greater reduction in cardiovascular risk with statin treatment. Methods and Results-We evaluated the association between the white blood cell count (WBC) and coronary heart disease mortality during a mean follow-up of 6.0 years in the Long-Term Intervention With Pravastatin in Ischemic Disease (LIPID) Study, a clinical trial comparing pravastatin (40 mg/d) with a placebo in 9014 stable patients with previous myocardial infarction or unstable angina. An increase in baseline WBC was associated with greater coronary heart disease mortality in patients randomized to placebo (hazard ratio for 1 X 10(9)/L increase in WBC, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.25; P<0.001) but not pravastatin (hazard ratio, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.96 to 1.09; P=0.56; P for interaction=0.004). The numbers of coronary heart disease deaths prevented per 1000 patients treated with pravastatin were 0, 9, 30, and 38 for baseline WBC quartiles of <5.9, 6.0 to 6.9, 7.0 to 8.1, and >8.2X10(9)/L, respectively. WBC was a stronger predictor of this treatment benefit than the ratio of total to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and a global measure of cardiac risk. There was also a greater reduction (P=0.052) in the combined incidence of cardiovascular mortality, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and stroke with pravastatin as baseline WBC increased ( by quartile: 3, 41, 61, and 60 events prevented per 1000 patients treated, respectively). Conclusions-These data support the hypothesis that individuals with evidence of inflammation may obtain a greater benefit from statin therapy.

Posttraumatic stress disorder and general psychopathology in children and adolescents following a wildfire disaster

Objective: To report on the use of the Post Traumatic Stress Disorder Reaction Index (PTSD-RI) and the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) in identifying children and adolescents who may require psychological interventions following exposure to a wildfire disaster. Method: Six months after a wildfire disaster, we conducted a school-based program to screen for wildfire-related events, such as exposure to and perception of threat, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and general psychopathology. Results: The screening battery was completed by 222 children (mean age 12.5 years, SD 2.48; range 8 to 18 years). Severe or very severe PTSD was reported by 9.0% of students, while 22.6% scored in the abnormal range on the Emotional Symptoms subscale of the SDQ. Younger children and individuals with greater exposure to and perception of threat experienced higher levels of PTSD and general psychopathology. Female students reported a greater perception of threat but did not report higher levels of PTSD or other symptoms. Conclusions: Screening was well received by students, parents, and staff and proved feasible in the postdisaster environment. The PTSD-RI and SDQ demonstrated different individual risk associations and functioned as complementary measures within the screening battery. The identification of children at greatest risk of mental health morbidity enabled service providers to selectively target limited mental health resources.

Does anticipation training affect drivers' risk taking?

Skill and risk taking are argued to be independent and to require different remedial programs. However, it is possible to contend that skill-based training could be associated with an increase, a decrease, or no change in fisk-taking behavior. In 3 experiments, the authors examined the influence of a skill-based training program (hazard perception) on the fisk-taking behavior of car drivers (using video-based driving simulations). Experiment 1 demonstrated a decrease in risk taking for novice drivers. In Experiment 2, the authors examined the possibilities that the skills training might operate through either a nonspecific reduction in risk taking or a specific improvement in hazard perception. Evidence supported the latter. These findings were replicated in a more ecological context in Experiment 3, which compared advanced and nonadvanced police drivers.

Effect of conditional release from hospitalization on mortality risk

Objectives: This study considered the protective value provided by conditional release. It assessed the contribution of conditional release to mortality risk among patients with mental disorders severe enough to require psychiatric hospitalization during a mental health treatment span of 13.5 years in Victoria, Australia. Methods: Death records were obtained from the Australian National Death Index for a sample of 24,973 Victorian Psychiatric Case Register patients with a history of psychiatric hospitalizations: 8,879 had experienced at least one conditional release during community care intervals and 16,094 had not. Risk of death was assessed with standardized mortality ratios of the general population of Victoria. Relative risk of death among patients with and without past experience of conditional release was computed with risk and odds ratios. The contribution of conditional release to mortality, taking into account use of community care services, age, gender, inpatient experience, and diagnosis, as well as other controls, was assessed with logistic regression. Results: Patients who had been hospitalized showed higher mortality risk than the general population. Sixteen percent ( 4,034) died. Patients exposed to conditional release, however, had a 14 percent reduction in probability of noninjury-related death and a 24 percent reduction per day on orders in the probability of death from injury compared with those not offered such oversight throughout their mental health treatment, all other factors taken into account. Conclusions: Conditional release can offer protective oversight for those considered dangerous to self or others and appears to reduce mortality risk among those with disorders severe enough to require psychiatric hospitalization.