The building blocks of international ecological footprint inequality: a regression-based decomposition

This paper performs an empirical Decomposition of International Inequality in Ecological Footprint in order to quantify to what extent explanatory variables such as a country’s affluence, economic structure, demographic characteristics, climate and technology contributed to international differences in terms of natural resource consumption during the period 1993-2007. We use a Regression-Based Inequality Decomposition approach. As a result, the methodology extends qualitatively the results obtained in standard environmental impact regressions as it comprehends further social dimensions of the Sustainable Development concept, i.e. equity within generations. The results obtained point to prioritizing policies that take into account both future and present generations.

The Building Blocks of International Ecological Footprint inequality: A Regression-Base Decomposition

This paper performs an empirical Decomposition of International Inequality in Ecological Footprint in order to quantify to what extent explanatory variables such as a country’s affluence, economic structure, demographic characteristics, climate and technology contributed to international differences in terms of natural resource consumption during the period 1993-2007. We use a Regression- Based Inequality Decomposition approach. As a result, the methodology extends qualitatively the results obtained in standard environmental impact regressions as it comprehends further social dimensions of the Sustainable Development concept, i.e. equity within generations. The results obtained point to prioritizing policies that take into account both future and present generations. Keywords: Ecological Footprint Inequality, Regression-Based Inequality Decomposition, Intragenerational equity, Sustainable development.

Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions: setting the scene

An important statistical development of the last 30 years has been the advance in regression analysis provided by generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs). Here we introduce a series of papers prepared within the framework of an international workshop entitled: Advances in GLMs/GAMs modeling: from species distribution to environmental management, held in Riederalp, Switzerland, 6-11 August 2001.We first discuss some general uses of statistical models in ecology, as well as provide a short review of several key examples of the use of GLMs and GAMs in ecological modeling efforts. We next present an overview of GLMs and GAMs, and discuss some of their related statistics used for predictor selection, model diagnostics, and evaluation. Included is a discussion of several new approaches applicable to GLMs and GAMs, such as ridge regression, an alternative to stepwise selection of predictors, and methods for the identification of interactions by a combined use of regression trees and several other approaches. We close with an overview of the papers and how we feel they advance our understanding of their application to ecological modeling.

TECTONICS OF THE HELVETIC NAPPE SYSTEM (W SWITZERLAND): CONTROL OF STRAIN LOCALIZATION AND BASEMENT-COVER DEFORMATION. Insights from models based on continuum mechanics

The Helvetic nappe system in Western Switzerland is a stack of fold nappes and thrust sheets em-placed at low grade metamorphism. Fold nappes and thrust sheets are also some of the most common features in orogens. Fold nappes are kilometer scaled recumbent folds which feature a weakly deformed normal limb and an intensely deformed overturned limb. Thrust sheets on the other hand are characterized by the absence of overturned limb and can be defined as almost rigid blocks of crust that are displaced sub-horizontally over up to several tens of kilometers. The Morcles and Doldenhom nappe are classic examples of fold nappes and constitute the so-called infra-Helvetic complex in Western and Central Switzerland, respectively. This complex is overridden by thrust sheets such as the Diablerets and Wildhörn nappes in Western Switzerland. One of the most famous example of thrust sheets worldwide is the Glariis thrust sheet in Central Switzerland which features over 35 kilometers of thrusting which are accommodated by a ~1 m thick shear zone. Since the works of the early Alpine geologist such as Heim and Lugeon, the knowledge of these nappes has been steadily refined and today the geometry and kinematics of the Helvetic nappe system is generally agreed upon. However, despite the extensive knowledge we have today of the kinematics of fold nappes and thrust sheets, the mechanical process leading to the emplacement of these nappe is still poorly understood. For a long time geologist were facing the so-called 'mechanical paradox' which arises from the fact that a block of rock several kilometers high and tens of kilometers long (i.e. nappe) would break internally rather than start moving on a low angle plane. Several solutions were proposed to solve this apparent paradox. Certainly the most successful is the theory of critical wedges (e.g. Chappie 1978; Dahlen, 1984). In this theory the orogen is considered as a whole and this change of scale allows thrust sheet like structures to form while being consistent with mechanics. However this theoiy is intricately linked to brittle rheology and fold nappes, which are inherently ductile structures, cannot be created in these models. When considering the problem of nappe emplacement from the perspective of ductile rheology the problem of strain localization arises. The aim of this thesis was to develop and apply models based on continuum mechanics and integrating heat transfer to understand the emplacement of nappes. Models were solved either analytically or numerically. In the first two papers of this thesis we derived a simple model which describes channel flow in a homogeneous material with temperature dependent viscosity. We applied this model to the Morcles fold nappe and to several kilometer-scale shear zones worldwide. In the last paper we zoomed out and studied the tectonics of (i) ductile and (ii) visco-elasto-plastic and temperature dependent wedges. In this last paper we focused on the relationship between basement and cover deformation. We demonstrated that during the compression of a ductile passive margin both fold nappes and thrust sheets can develop and that these apparently different structures constitute two end-members of a single structure (i.e. nappe). The transition from fold nappe to thrust sheet is to first order controlled by the deformation of the basement. -- Le système des nappes helvétiques en Suisse occidentale est un empilement de nappes de plis et de nappes de charriage qui se sont mis en place à faible grade métamorphique. Les nappes de plis et les nappes de charriage sont parmi les objets géologiques les plus communs dans les orogènes. Les nappes de plis sont des plis couchés d'échelle kilométrique caractérisés par un flanc normal faiblement défor-mé, au contraire de leur flanc inverse, intensément déformé. Les nappes de charriage, à l'inverse se caractérisent par l'absence d'un flanc inverse bien défini. Elles peuvent être définies comme des blocs de croûte terrestre qui se déplacent de manière presque rigide qui sont déplacés sub-horizontalement jusqu'à plusieurs dizaines de kilomètres. La nappe de Mordes et la nappe du Doldenhorn sont des exemples classiques de nappes de plis et constitue le complexe infra-helvétique en Suisse occidentale et centrale, respectivement. Ce complexe repose sous des nappes de charriages telles les nappes des Diablerets et du Widlhörn en Suisse occidentale. La nappe du Glariis en Suisse centrale se distingue par un déplacement de plus de 35 kilomètres qui s'est effectué à la faveur d'une zone de cisaillement basale épaisse de seulement 1 mètre. Aujourd'hui la géométrie et la cinématique des nappes alpines fait l'objet d'un consensus général. Malgré cela, les processus mécaniques par lesquels ces nappes se sont mises en place restent mal compris. Pendant toute la première moitié du vingtième siècle les géologues les géologues ont été confrontés au «paradoxe mécanique». Celui-ci survient du fait qu'un bloc de roche haut de plusieurs kilomètres et long de plusieurs dizaines de kilomètres (i.e., une nappe) se fracturera de l'intérieur plutôt que de se déplacer sur une surface frictionnelle. Plusieurs solutions ont été proposées pour contourner cet apparent paradoxe. La solution la plus populaire est la théorie des prismes d'accrétion critiques (par exemple Chappie, 1978 ; Dahlen, 1984). Dans le cadre de cette théorie l'orogène est considéré dans son ensemble et ce simple changement d'échelle solutionne le paradoxe mécanique (la fracturation interne de l'orogène correspond aux nappes). Cette théorie est étroitement lié à la rhéologie cassante et par conséquent des nappes de plis ne peuvent pas créer au sein d'un prisme critique. Le but de cette thèse était de développer et d'appliquer des modèles basés sur la théorie de la méca-nique des milieux continus et sur les transferts de chaleur pour comprendre l'emplacement des nappes. Ces modèles ont été solutionnés de manière analytique ou numérique. Dans les deux premiers articles présentés dans ce mémoire nous avons dérivé un modèle d'écoulement dans un chenal d'un matériel homogène dont la viscosité dépend de la température. Nous avons appliqué ce modèle à la nappe de Mordes et à plusieurs zone de cisaillement d'échelle kilométrique provenant de différents orogènes a travers le monde. Dans le dernier article nous avons considéré le problème à l'échelle de l'orogène et avons étudié la tectonique de prismes (i) ductiles, et (ii) visco-élasto-plastiques en considérant les transferts de chaleur. Nous avons démontré que durant la compression d'une marge passive ductile, a la fois des nappes de plis et des nappes de charriages peuvent se développer. Nous avons aussi démontré que nappes de plis et de charriages sont deux cas extrêmes d'une même structure (i.e. nappe) La transition entre le développement d'une nappe de pli ou d'une nappe de charriage est contrôlé au premier ordre par la déformation du socle. -- Le système des nappes helvétiques en Suisse occidentale est un emblement de nappes de plis et de nappes de chaînage qui se sont mis en place à faible grade métamoiphique. Les nappes de plis et les nappes de charriage sont parmi les objets géologiques les plus communs dans les orogènes. Les nappes de plis sont des plis couchés d'échelle kilométrique caractérisés par un flanc normal faiblement déformé, au contraire de leur flanc inverse, intensément déformé. Les nappes de charriage, à l'inverse se caractérisent par l'absence d'un flanc inverse bien défini. Elles peuvent être définies comme des blocs de croûte terrestre qui se déplacent de manière presque rigide qui sont déplacés sub-horizontalement jusqu'à plusieurs dizaines de kilomètres. La nappe de Morcles and la nappe du Doldenhorn sont des exemples classiques de nappes de plis et constitue le complexe infra-helvétique en Suisse occidentale et centrale, respectivement. Ce complexe repose sous des nappes de charriages telles les nappes des Diablerets et du Widlhörn en Suisse occidentale. La nappe du Glarüs en Suisse centrale est certainement l'exemple de nappe de charriage le plus célèbre au monde. Elle se distingue par un déplacement de plus de 35 kilomètres qui s'est effectué à la faveur d'une zone de cisaillement basale épaisse de seulement 1 mètre. La géométrie et la cinématique des nappes alpines fait l'objet d'un consensus général parmi les géologues. Au contraire les processus physiques par lesquels ces nappes sont mises en place reste mal compris. Les sédiments qui forment les nappes alpines se sont déposés à l'ère secondaire et à l'ère tertiaire sur le socle de la marge européenne qui a été étiré durant l'ouverture de l'océan Téthys. Lors de la fermeture de la Téthys, qui donnera naissance aux Alpes, le socle et les sédiments de la marge européenne ont été déformés pour former les nappes alpines. Le but de cette thèse était de développer et d'appliquer des modèles basés sur la théorie de la mécanique des milieux continus et sur les transferts de chaleur pour comprendre l'emplacement des nappes. Ces modèles ont été solutionnés de manière analytique ou numérique. Dans les deux premiers articles présentés dans ce mémoire nous nous sommes intéressés à la localisation de la déformation à l'échelle d'une nappe. Nous avons appliqué le modèle développé à la nappe de Morcles et à plusieurs zones de cisaillement provenant de différents orogènes à travers le monde. Dans le dernier article nous avons étudié la relation entre la déformation du socle et la défonnation des sédiments. Nous avons démontré que nappe de plis et nappes de charriages constituent les cas extrêmes d'un continuum. La transition entre nappe de pli et nappe de charriage est intrinsèquement lié à la déformation du socle sur lequel les sédiments reposent.

Testing demographic models of effective population size.

Due to practical difficulties in obtaining direct genetic estimates of effective sizes, conservation biologists have to rely on so-called 'demographic models' which combine life-history and mating-system parameters with F-statistics in order to produce indirect estimates of effective sizes. However, for the same practical reasons that prevent direct genetic estimates, the accuracy of demographic models is difficult to evaluate. Here we use individual-based, genetically explicit computer simulations in order to investigate the accuracy of two such demographic models aimed at investigating the hierarchical structure of populations. We show that, by and large, these models provide good estimates under a wide range of mating systems and dispersal patterns. However, one of the models should be avoided whenever the focal species' breeding system approaches monogamy with no sex bias in dispersal or when a substructure within social groups is suspected because effective sizes may then be strongly overestimated. The timing during the life cycle at which F-statistics are evaluated is also of crucial importance and attention should be paid to it when designing field sampling since different demographic models assume different timings. Our study shows that individual-based, genetically explicit models provide a promising way of evaluating the accuracy of demographic models of effective size and delineate their field of applicability.

Nonlinear models and small sample performance of the generalized method of moments

In this paper I explore the issue of nonlinearity (both in the datageneration process and in the functional form that establishes therelationship between the parameters and the data) regarding the poorperformance of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) in small samples.To this purpose I build a sequence of models starting with a simple linearmodel and enlarging it progressively until I approximate a standard (nonlinear)neoclassical growth model. I then use simulation techniques to find the smallsample distribution of the GMM estimators in each of the models.

Defining new criteria for selection of cell-based intestinal models using publicly available databases.

BACKGROUND: The criteria for choosing relevant cell lines among a vast panel of available intestinal-derived lines exhibiting a wide range of functional properties are still ill-defined. The objective of this study was, therefore, to establish objective criteria for choosing relevant cell lines to assess their appropriateness as tumor models as well as for drug absorption studies. RESULTS: We made use of publicly available expression signatures and cell based functional assays to delineate differences between various intestinal colon carcinoma cell lines and normal intestinal epithelium. We have compared a panel of intestinal cell lines with patient-derived normal and tumor epithelium and classified them according to traits relating to oncogenic pathway activity, epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) and stemness, migratory properties, proliferative activity, transporter expression profiles and chemosensitivity. For example, SW480 represent an EMT-high, migratory phenotype and scored highest in terms of signatures associated to worse overall survival and higher risk of recurrence based on patient derived databases. On the other hand, differentiated HT29 and T84 cells showed gene expression patterns closest to tumor bulk derived cells. Regarding drug absorption, we confirmed that differentiated Caco-2 cells are the model of choice for active uptake studies in the small intestine. Regarding chemosensitivity we were unable to confirm a recently proposed association of chemo-resistance with EMT traits. However, a novel signature was identified through mining of NCI60 GI50 values that allowed to rank the panel of intestinal cell lines according to their drug responsiveness to commonly used chemotherapeutics. CONCLUSIONS: This study presents a straightforward strategy to exploit publicly available gene expression data to guide the choice of cell-based models. While this approach does not overcome the major limitations of such models, introducing a rank order of selected features may allow selecting model cell lines that are more adapted and pertinent to the addressed biological question.

Do habitat suitability models reliably predict the recovery areas of threatened species?

1. Identifying those areas suitable for recolonization by threatened species is essential to support efficient conservation policies. Habitat suitability models (HSM) predict species' potential distributions, but the quality of their predictions should be carefully assessed when the species-environment equilibrium assumption is violated.2. We studied the Eurasian otter Lutra lutra, whose numbers are recovering in southern Italy. To produce widely applicable results, we chose standard HSM procedures and looked for the models' capacities in predicting the suitability of a recolonization area. We used two fieldwork datasets: presence-only data, used in the Ecological Niche Factor Analyses (ENFA), and presence-absence data, used in a Generalized Linear Model (GLM). In addition to cross-validation, we independently evaluated the models with data from a recolonization event, providing presences on a previously unoccupied river.3. Three of the models successfully predicted the suitability of the recolonization area, but the GLM built with data before the recolonization disagreed with these predictions, missing the recolonized river's suitability and badly describing the otter's niche. Our results highlighted three points of relevance to modelling practices: (1) absences may prevent the models from correctly identifying areas suitable for a species spread; (2) the selection of variables may lead to randomness in the predictions; and (3) the Area Under Curve (AUC), a commonly used validation index, was not well suited to the evaluation of model quality, whereas the Boyce Index (CBI), based on presence data only, better highlighted the models' fit to the recolonization observations.4. For species with unstable spatial distributions, presence-only models may work better than presence-absence methods in making reliable predictions of suitable areas for expansion. An iterative modelling process, using new occurrences from each step of the species spread, may also help in progressively reducing errors.5. Synthesis and applications. Conservation plans depend on reliable models of the species' suitable habitats. In non-equilibrium situations, such as the case for threatened or invasive species, models could be affected negatively by the inclusion of absence data when predicting the areas of potential expansion. Presence-only methods will here provide a better basis for productive conservation management practices.

Origin of the neutron skin thickness of 208Pb in nuclear mean-field models

We study whether the neutron skin thickness Δrnp of 208Pb originates from the bulk or from the surface of the nucleon density distributions, according to the mean-field models of nuclear structure, and find that it depends on the stiffness of the nuclear symmetry energy. The bulk contribution to Δrnp arises from an extended sharp radius of neutrons, whereas the surface contribution arises from different widths of the neutron and proton surfaces. Nuclear models where the symmetry energy is stiff, as typical of relativistic models, predict a bulk contribution in Δrnp of 208Pb about twice as large as the surface contribution. In contrast, models with a soft symmetry energy like common nonrelativistic models predict that Δrnp of 208Pb is divided similarly into bulk and surface parts. Indeed, if the symmetry energy is supersoft, the surface contribution becomes dominant. We note that the linear correlation of Δrnp of 208Pb with the density derivative of the nuclear symmetry energy arises from the bulk part of Δrnp. We also note that most models predict a mixed-type (between halo and skin) neutron distribution for 208Pb. Although the halo-type limit is actually found in the models with a supersoft symmetry energy, the skin-type limit is not supported by any mean-field model. Finally, we compute parity-violating electron scattering in the conditions of the 208Pb parity radius experiment (PREX) and obtain a pocket formula for the parity-violating asymmetry in terms of the parameters that characterize the shape of the 208Pb nucleon densities.

Classical anisotropies in models of open inflation

In the simplest model of open inflation there are two inflaton fields decoupled from each other. One of them, the tunneling field, produces a first stage of inflation which prepares the ground for the nucleation of a highly symmetric bubble. The other, a free field, drives a second period of slow-roll inflation inside the bubble. However, the second field also evolves during the first stage of inflation, which to some extent breaks the needed symmetry. We show that this generates large supercurvature anisotropies which, together with the results of Tanaka and Sasaki, rule out this class of simple models (unless, of course, Omega0 is sufficiently close to 1). The problem does not arise in modified models where the second field does not evolve in the first stage of inflation.

A probabilistic approach to niche-based community models for spatial forecasts of assemblage properties and their uncertainties

Aim Conservation strategies are in need of predictions that capture spatial community composition and structure. Currently, the methods used to generate these predictions generally focus on deterministic processes and omit important stochastic processes and other unexplained variation in model outputs. Here we test a novel approach of community models that accounts for this variation and determine how well it reproduces observed properties of alpine butterfly communities. Location The western Swiss Alps. Methods We propose a new approach to process probabilistic predictions derived from stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) in order to predict and assess the uncertainty in the predictions of community properties. We test the utility of our novel approach against a traditional threshold-based approach. We used mountain butterfly communities spanning a large elevation gradient as a case study and evaluated the ability of our approach to model species richness and phylogenetic diversity of communities. Results S-SDMs reproduced the observed decrease in phylogenetic diversity and species richness with elevation, syndromes of environmental filtering. The prediction accuracy of community properties vary along environmental gradient: variability in predictions of species richness was higher at low elevation, while it was lower for phylogenetic diversity. Our approach allowed mapping the variability in species richness and phylogenetic diversity projections. Main conclusion Using our probabilistic approach to process species distribution models outputs to reconstruct communities furnishes an improved picture of the range of possible assemblage realisations under similar environmental conditions given stochastic processes and help inform manager of the uncertainty in the modelling results

Measures of ionicity of alkaline-earth oxides from the analysis of ab initio cluster wave functions

We present an analysis of the M-O chemical bonding in the binary oxides MgO, CaO, SrO, BaO, and Al2O3 based on ab initio wave functions. The model used to represent the local environment of a metal cation in the bulk oxide is an MO6 cluster which also includes the effect of the lattice Madelung potential. The analysis of the wave functions for these clusters leads to the conclusion that all the alkaline-earth oxides must be regarded as highly ionic oxides; however, the ionic character of the oxides decreases as one goes from MgO, almost perfectly ionic, to BaO. In Al2O3 the ionic character is further reduced; however, even in this case, the departure from the ideal, fully ionic, model of Al3+ is not exceptionally large. These conclusions are based on three measures, a decomposition of the Mq+-Oq- interaction energy, the number of electrons associated to the oxygen ions as obtained from a projection operator technique, and the analysis of the cation core-level binding energies. The increasing covalent character along the series MgO, CaO, SrO, and BaO is discussed in view of the existing theoretical models and experimental data.

Advanced geostatistical and machine-learning models for spatial data analysis of radioactively contaminated regions

Radioactive soil-contamination mapping and risk assessment is a vital issue for decision makers. Traditional approaches for mapping the spatial concentration of radionuclides employ various regression-based models, which usually provide a single-value prediction realization accompanied (in some cases) by estimation error. Such approaches do not provide the capability for rigorous uncertainty quantification or probabilistic mapping. Machine learning is a recent and fast-developing approach based on learning patterns and information from data. Artificial neural networks for prediction mapping have been especially powerful in combination with spatial statistics. A data-driven approach provides the opportunity to integrate additional relevant information about spatial phenomena into a prediction model for more accurate spatial estimates and associated uncertainty. Machine-learning algorithms can also be used for a wider spectrum of problems than before: classification, probability density estimation, and so forth. Stochastic simulations are used to model spatial variability and uncertainty. Unlike regression models, they provide multiple realizations of a particular spatial pattern that allow uncertainty and risk quantification. This paper reviews the most recent methods of spatial data analysis, prediction, and risk mapping, based on machine learning and stochastic simulations in comparison with more traditional regression models. The radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident is used to illustrate the application of the models for prediction and classification problems. This fallout is a unique case study that provides the challenging task of analyzing huge amounts of data ('hard' direct measurements, as well as supplementary information and expert estimates) and solving particular decision-oriented problems.

Case studies and mathematical models of ecological speciation. 1. Cichlids in a crater lake.

A recent study of a pair of sympatric species of cichlids in Lake Apoyo in Nicaragua is viewed as providing probably one of the most convincing examples of sympatric speciation to date. Here, we describe and study a stochastic, individual-based, explicit genetic model tailored for this cichlid system. Our results show that relatively rapid (<20,000 generations) colonization of a new ecological niche and (sympatric or parapatric) speciation via local adaptation and divergence in habitat and mating preferences are theoretically plausible if: (i) the number of loci underlying the traits controlling local adaptation, and habitat and mating preferences is small; (ii) the strength of selection for local adaptation is intermediate; (iii) the carrying capacity of the population is intermediate; and (iv) the effects of the loci influencing nonrandom mating are strong. We discuss patterns and timescales of ecological speciation identified by our model, and we highlight important parameters and features that need to be studied empirically to provide information that can be used to improve the biological realism and power of mathematical models of ecological speciation.

A benchmark test for a quantitative assessment of simple neuron models

Several methods and algorithms have recently been proposed that allow for the systematic evaluation of simple neuron models from intracellular or extracellular recordings. Models built in this way generate good quantitative predictions of the future activity of neurons under temporally structured current injection. It is, however, difficult to compare the advantages of various models and algorithms since each model is designed for a different set of data. Here, we report about one of the first attempts to establish a benchmark test that permits a systematic comparison of methods and performances in predicting the activity of rat cortical pyramidal neurons. We present early submissions to the benchmark test and discuss implications for the design of future tests and simple neurons models