Malaria chemoprophylaxis: what do the travelers choose, and how does pretravel consultation influence their final decision.

Three different drugs (mefloquine, atovaquone/proguanil, doxycycline) are recommended for malaria chemoprophylaxis, each with approximately the same efficacy but various adverse event profiles, regimens, and prices. We investigated which medication the travelers would have chosen on the basis of written evidence-based information and the impact that pretravel consultation had on their decision. A prospective study was performed in a travel clinic and private practice, and 1073 travelers were included; 45% chose mefloquine (Lariam or Mephaquine), 21% atovaquone/proguanil (Malarone), 18% doxycycline (Supracycline), 5% "no prophylaxis," and 11% "do not know." Lariam was principally chosen because of prior experience (38%), Mephaquine because of low price (34%), and doxycycline and Malarone because of the profile of adverse events (55% and 43%, respectively). Based on objective written information, travelers most frequently chose mefloquine for chemoprophylaxis. This suggests that evidence-based information weighs more heavily than negative publicity. Taking into account the perspective of the user should improve appropriateness of the pretravel advice.

A Local DLP-GIS-LP system for geographically decentralized wood procurement planning and decision making

Summary

Modified Blalock Taussig shunt: a not-so-simple palliative procedure.

OBJECTIVES: Thirty-two consecutive isolated modified Blalock Taussig (BT) shunts performed in infancy since 2004 were reviewed and analysed to identify the risk factors for shunt intervention and mortality. METHODS: Sternotomy was the only approach used. Median age and weight were 10.5 (range 1-74) days and 2.9 (1.9-4.4) kg, respectively. Shunt palliation was performed for biventricular hearts (Tetralogy of Fallot/double outlet right ventricle/transposition of great arteries_ventricular septal defect_pulmonary stenosis/pulmonary atresia_ventricular septal defect/others) in 21, and univentricular hearts in 11, patients. Hypoplastic left heart syndrome patients were excluded. Two procedures required cardiopulmonary bypass. Median shunt size was 3.5 (3-4) mm and median shunt size/kg body weight was 1.2 (0.9-1.7) mm/kg. Reduction in shunt size was necessary in 5 of 32 (16%) patients. RESULTS: Three of 32 (9%) patients died after 3 (1-15) days due to cardiorespiratory decompensation. Lower body weight (P = 0.04) and bigger shunt size/kg of body weight (P = 0.004) were significant risk factors for mortality. Acute shunt thrombosis was observed in 3 of 32 (9%), none leading to death. Need for cardiac decongestive therapy was associated with univentricular hearts (P < 0.001), bigger shunt size (P = 0.054) and longer hospital stay (P = 0.005). Twenty-eight patients have undergone a successful shunt takedown at a median age of 5.5 (0.5-11.9) months, without late mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Palliation with a modified BT shunt continues to be indicated despite increased thrust on primary corrective surgery. Though seemingly simple, it is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Effective over-shunting and acute shunt thrombosis are the lingering problems of shunt therapy.

Record of Decision Council Bluffs Interstate System (I-29, I-80 and I-480) Improvements Project TIER 1 Environmental Impact Statement Council Bluffs, Iowa to Omaha, Nebraska FHWA-IA- EIS-04-01F Project Number: IM-029-3(62)54—13-78 Submitted Pursuant to 42 USC 4332(2)(c) and 49 USC 303, October 2008

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) approves the selection of the Reconstruction of All or Part of the Interstate (Construction Alternative) as the Preferred Alternative to provide improvements to the interstate system in the Omaha/Council Bluffs metropolitan area, extending across the Missouri River on Interstate 80 to east of the Interstate 480 interchange in Omaha, Nebraska. The study considered long-term, broad-based transportation improvements along Interstate I-29 (I-29), I-80, and I-480, including approximately 18 mainline miles of interstate and 14 interchanges (3 system, 11 service), that would add capacity and correct functional issues along the mainline and interchanges and upgrade the I-80 Missouri River Crossing. FHWA also approves the decisions to provide full access between West Broadway and I-29, design the I-80/I-29 overlap section as a dual-divided freeway, and locating the new I-80 Missouri River Bridge north of the existing bridge. Improvements to the interstate system, once implemented, would bring the segments of I-80 and I-29 (see Figure 1) up to current engineering standards and accommodate future traffic needs. This Record of Decision (ROD) concludes Tier 1 of the Council Bluffs Interstate System (CBIS) Improvements Project. Tier 1 included an examination of the area’s transportation needs, a study of alternatives to satisfy them, and broad consideration of potential environmental and social impacts. The Tier 1 evaluation consisted of a sufficient level of engineering and environmental detail to assist decision makers in selecting a preferred transportation strategy. During Tier 1 a Draft EIS (FHWA-IA- EIS-04-01D) was developed which was approved by FHWA, Iowa DOT, and Nebraska Department of Roads (NDOR) in November 2004 with comments accepted through March 15, 2005. The Draft EIS summarized the alternatives that were considered to address the transportation needs around Council Bluffs; identified reconstruction of all or part of the interstate, the “Construction Alternative,” as the Preferred Alternative; identified three system-level decisions that needed to be made at the Tier 1 level; and invited comment on the issues. The Final EIS (FHWA-IA- EIS-04-01F) further documented the Construction Alternative as the Preferred Alternative and identified the recommended decisions for the three system level decisions that needed to be made in Tier 1. This ROD defines the Selected Alternative determined in the Tier 1 studies.

Estimation of jump-diffusion processes via empirical characteristic functions

Preface The starting point for this work and eventually the subject of the whole thesis was the question: how to estimate parameters of the affine stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models. These models are very important for contingent claim pricing. Their major advantage, availability T of analytical solutions for characteristic functions, made them the models of choice for many theoretical constructions and practical applications. At the same time, estimation of parameters of stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models is not a straightforward task. The problem is coming from the variance process, which is non-observable. There are several estimation methodologies that deal with estimation problems of latent variables. One appeared to be particularly interesting. It proposes the estimator that in contrast to the other methods requires neither discretization nor simulation of the process: the Continuous Empirical Characteristic function estimator (EGF) based on the unconditional characteristic function. However, the procedure was derived only for the stochastic volatility models without jumps. Thus, it has become the subject of my research. This thesis consists of three parts. Each one is written as independent and self contained article. At the same time, questions that are answered by the second and third parts of this Work arise naturally from the issues investigated and results obtained in the first one. The first chapter is the theoretical foundation of the thesis. It proposes an estimation procedure for the stochastic volatility models with jumps both in the asset price and variance processes. The estimation procedure is based on the joint unconditional characteristic function for the stochastic process. The major analytical result of this part as well as of the whole thesis is the closed form expression for the joint unconditional characteristic function for the stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models. The empirical part of the chapter suggests that besides a stochastic volatility, jumps both in the mean and the volatility equation are relevant for modelling returns of the S&P500 index, which has been chosen as a general representative of the stock asset class. Hence, the next question is: what jump process to use to model returns of the S&P500. The decision about the jump process in the framework of the affine jump- diffusion models boils down to defining the intensity of the compound Poisson process, a constant or some function of state variables, and to choosing the distribution of the jump size. While the jump in the variance process is usually assumed to be exponential, there are at least three distributions of the jump size which are currently used for the asset log-prices: normal, exponential and double exponential. The second part of this thesis shows that normal jumps in the asset log-returns should be used if we are to model S&P500 index by a stochastic volatility jump-diffusion model. This is a surprising result. Exponential distribution has fatter tails and for this reason either exponential or double exponential jump size was expected to provide the best it of the stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models to the data. The idea of testing the efficiency of the Continuous ECF estimator on the simulated data has already appeared when the first estimation results of the first chapter were obtained. In the absence of a benchmark or any ground for comparison it is unreasonable to be sure that our parameter estimates and the true parameters of the models coincide. The conclusion of the second chapter provides one more reason to do that kind of test. Thus, the third part of this thesis concentrates on the estimation of parameters of stochastic volatility jump- diffusion models on the basis of the asset price time-series simulated from various "true" parameter sets. The goal is to show that the Continuous ECF estimator based on the joint unconditional characteristic function is capable of finding the true parameters. And, the third chapter proves that our estimator indeed has the ability to do so. Once it is clear that the Continuous ECF estimator based on the unconditional characteristic function is working, the next question does not wait to appear. The question is whether the computation effort can be reduced without affecting the efficiency of the estimator, or whether the efficiency of the estimator can be improved without dramatically increasing the computational burden. The efficiency of the Continuous ECF estimator depends on the number of dimensions of the joint unconditional characteristic function which is used for its construction. Theoretically, the more dimensions there are, the more efficient is the estimation procedure. In practice, however, this relationship is not so straightforward due to the increasing computational difficulties. The second chapter, for example, in addition to the choice of the jump process, discusses the possibility of using the marginal, i.e. one-dimensional, unconditional characteristic function in the estimation instead of the joint, bi-dimensional, unconditional characteristic function. As result, the preference for one or the other depends on the model to be estimated. Thus, the computational effort can be reduced in some cases without affecting the efficiency of the estimator. The improvement of the estimator s efficiency by increasing its dimensionality faces more difficulties. The third chapter of this thesis, in addition to what was discussed above, compares the performance of the estimators with bi- and three-dimensional unconditional characteristic functions on the simulated data. It shows that the theoretical efficiency of the Continuous ECF estimator based on the three-dimensional unconditional characteristic function is not attainable in practice, at least for the moment, due to the limitations on the computer power and optimization toolboxes available to the general public. Thus, the Continuous ECF estimator based on the joint, bi-dimensional, unconditional characteristic function has all the reasons to exist and to be used for the estimation of parameters of the stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models.

Report of agreed upon procedure of the Medicaid demonstration project, entitled IowaCare, for the year ended June 30, 2011

Report of agreed upon procedure of the Medicaid demonstration project, entitled IowaCare, for the year ended June 30, 2011

Task 4: Testing Iowa Portland Cement Concrete Mixtures for the AASHTO Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Procedure, May 2008

The present research project was designed to identify the typical Iowa material input values that are required by the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) for the Level 3 concrete pavement design. It was also designed to investigate the existing equations that might be used to predict Iowa pavement concrete for the Level 2 pavement design. In this project, over 20,000 data were collected from the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) and other sources. These data, most of which were concrete compressive strength, slump, air content, and unit weight data, were synthesized and their statistical parameters (such as the mean values and standard variations) were analyzed. Based on the analyses, the typical input values of Iowa pavement concrete, such as 28-day compressive strength (f’c), splitting tensile strength (fsp), elastic modulus (Ec), and modulus of rupture (MOR), were evaluated. The study indicates that the 28-day MOR of Iowa concrete is 646 + 51 psi, very close to the MEPDG default value (650 psi). The 28-day Ec of Iowa concrete (based only on two available data of the Iowa Curling and Warping project) is 4.82 + 0.28x106 psi, which is quite different from the MEPDG default value (3.93 x106 psi); therefore, the researchers recommend re-evaluating after more Iowa test data become available. The drying shrinkage (εc) of a typical Iowa concrete (C-3WR-C20 mix) was tested at Concrete Technology Laboratory (CTL). The test results show that the ultimate shrinkage of the concrete is about 454 microstrain and the time for the concrete to reach 50% of ultimate shrinkage is at 32 days; both of these values are very close to the MEPDG default values. The comparison of the Iowa test data and the MEPDG default values, as well as the recommendations on the input values to be used in MEPDG for Iowa PCC pavement design, are summarized in Table 20 of this report. The available equations for predicting the above-mentioned concrete properties were also assembled. The validity of these equations for Iowa concrete materials was examined. Multiple-parameters nonlinear regression analyses, along with the artificial neural network (ANN) method, were employed to investigate the relationships among Iowa concrete material properties and to modify the existing equations so as to be suitable for Iowa concrete materials. However, due to lack of necessary data sets, the relationships between Iowa concrete properties were established based on the limited data from CP Tech Center’s projects and ISU classes only. The researchers suggest that the resulting relationships be used by Iowa pavement design engineers as references only. The present study furthermore indicates that appropriately documenting concrete properties, including flexural strength, elastic modulus, and information on concrete mix design, is essential for updating the typical Iowa material input values and providing rational prediction equations for concrete pavement design in the future.

Subclass problem-dependent design for error-correcting output codes

A common way to model multiclass classification problems is by means of Error-Correcting Output Codes (ECOCs). Given a multiclass problem, the ECOC technique designs a code word for each class, where each position of the code identifies the membership of the class for a given binary problem. A classification decision is obtained by assigning the label of the class with the closest code. One of the main requirements of the ECOC design is that the base classifier is capable of splitting each subgroup of classes from each binary problem. However, we cannot guarantee that a linear classifier model convex regions. Furthermore, nonlinear classifiers also fail to manage some type of surfaces. In this paper, we present a novel strategy to model multiclass classification problems using subclass information in the ECOC framework. Complex problems are solved by splitting the original set of classes into subclasses and embedding the binary problems in a problem-dependent ECOC design. Experimental results show that the proposed splitting procedure yields a better performance when the class overlap or the distribution of the training objects conceal the decision boundaries for the base classifier. The results are even more significant when one has a sufficiently large training size.

Decision Support Model for Assessing Archaeological Survey Needs for Bridge Replacement Projects in Iowa, 2006

The Bridges Decision Support Model is a geographic information system (GIS) that assembles existing data on archaeological sites, surveys, and their geologic contexts to assess the risk of bridge replacement projects encountering 13,000- to 150-year-old Native American sites. This project identifies critical variables for assessing prehistoric sites potential, examines the quality of available data about the variables, and applies the data to creating a decision support framework for use by the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) and others. An analysis of previous archaeological surveys indicates that subsurface testing to discover buried sites became increasingly common after 1980, but did not become routine until after the adoption of guidelines recommending such testing, in 1993. Even then, the average depth of testing has been relatively shallow. Alluvial deposits of sufficient age, deposited in depositional environments conducive to human habitation, are considerably thicker than archaeologists have routinely tested.

GIS - Based Decision and Outreach Tools for Aggregate Source Management, September 2008

This research project combined various datasets, existing and created for this project, into an Interactive Mapping Service (IMS) for use by Iowa DOT personnel, county planning and zoning departments and the public in order to make more informed decisions regarding aggregate sources and future access to them. Iowa DOT Technical Advisory Committee meetings were held, along with public forum presentations, in order to understand better the social, ecological and economic limitations to extracting aggregate. The information needed by potential users was conveyed and integrated into a single informational source, the Aggregate Planning IMS.

Automatic selection of tidal volume, respiratory frequency and minute ventilation in intubated ICU patients as start up procedure for closed-loop controlled ventilation.

OBJECTIVE: Before a patient can be connected to a mechanical ventilator, the controls of the apparatus need to be set up appropriately. Today, this is done by the intensive care professional. With the advent of closed loop controlled mechanical ventilation, methods will be needed to select appropriate start up settings automatically. The objective of our study was to test such a computerized method which could eventually be used as a start-up procedure (first 5-10 minutes of ventilation) for closed-loop controlled ventilation. DESIGN: Prospective Study. SETTINGS: ICU's in two adult and one children's hospital. PATIENTS: 25 critically ill adult patients (age > or = 15 y) and 17 critically ill children selected at random were studied. INTERVENTIONS: To stimulate 'initial connection', the patients were disconnected from their ventilator and transiently connected to a modified Hamilton AMADEUS ventilator for maximally one minute. During that time they were ventilated with a fixed and standardized breath pattern (Test Breaths) based on pressure controlled synchronized intermittent mandatory ventilation (PCSIMV). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Measurements of airway flow, airway pressure and instantaneous CO2 concentration using a mainstream CO2 analyzer were made at the mouth during application of the Test-Breaths. Test-Breaths were analyzed in terms of tidal volume, expiratory time constant and series dead space. Using this data an initial ventilation pattern consisting of respiratory frequency and tidal volume was calculated. This ventilation pattern was compared to the one measured prior to the onset of the study using a two-tailed paired t-test. Additionally, it was compared to a conventional method for setting up ventilators. The computer-proposed ventilation pattern did not differ significantly from the actual pattern (p > 0.05), while the conventional method did. However the scatter was large and in 6 cases deviations in the minute ventilation of more than 50% were observed. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis of standardized Test Breaths allows automatic determination of an initial ventilation pattern for intubated ICU patients. While this pattern does not seem to be superior to the one chosen by the conventional method, it is derived fully automatically and without need for manual patient data entry such as weight or height. This makes the method potentially useful as a start up procedure for closed-loop controlled ventilation.

Traumatic recurrent anterior dislocation of the shoulder: two- to four-year follow-up of an anatomic open procedure.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the results of an anatomic open stabilization procedure. Twenty-three consecutive patients with traumatic, recurrent, anterior glenohumeral instability were managed with a modified open procedure. All had a Bankart lesion. A standardized, true anatomic capsulolabral reconstruction was performed with suture anchors. Two patients were lost to follow-up, and twenty-one were evaluated after 36 months [range, 24-49 months] by an independent observer. Shoulder stability and function were the principal outcome measures. None of the patients had subsequent dislocations. All returned to full working capacity, and 19 reached their previous level of sport activities. The mean loss in active abduction and flexion was 1 degrees, in internal rotation, one vertebral level, and in external rotation, 7 degrees (arm at 90 degrees of abduction). Two patients had a positive anterior apprehension test. No sign of shoulder osteoarthritis was observed. The open anatomic capsulolabral reconstruction provides excellent results and allows the restoration of stability with good function.