Local likelihood smoothing of sample extremes

Trends in sample extremes are of interest in many contexts, an example being environmental statistics. Parametric models are often used to model trends in such data, but they may not be suitable for exploratory data analysis. This paper outlines a semiparametric approach to smoothing example extremes, based on local polynomial fitting of the generalized extreme value distribution and related models. The uncertainty of fits is assessed by using resampling methods. The methods are applied to data on extreme temperatures and on record times for the womens 3000m race.

Local models for exploratory analysis of hydrological extremes

Trend analysis is widely used for detecting changes in hydrological data. Parametric methods for this employ pre-specified models and associated tests to assess significance, whereas non-parametric methods generally apply rank tests to the data. Neither approach is suitable for exploratory analysis, because parametric models impose a particular, perhaps unsuitable, form of trend, while testing may confirm that trend is present but does not describe its form. This paper describes semi-parametric approaches to trend analysis using local likelihood fitting of annual maximum and partial duration series and illustrates their application to the exploratory analysis of changes in extremes in sea level and river flow data. Bootstrap methods are used to quantify the variability of estimates.

Salivary antimicrobial peptides (LL-37 and alpha-defensins HNP1-3), antimicrobial and IgA responses to prolonged exercise

There are many factors in mucosal secretions that contribute to innate immunity and the 'first line of defence' at mucosal surfaces. Few studies, however, have investigated the effects of exercise on many of these 'defence' factors. The aim of the present study was to determine the acute effects of prolonged exercise on salivary levels of selected antimicrobial peptides (AMP) that have not yet been studied in response to exercise (HNP1-3 and LL-37) in addition to immunoglobulin A (IgA). A secondary objective was to assess the effects of exercise on saliva antibacterial capacity. Twelve active men exercised on a cycle ergometer for 2.5 h at approximately 60% of maximal oxygen uptake. Unstimulated whole saliva samples were obtained before and after exercise. There was a significant decrease (P < 0.05) in salivary IgA:osmolality ratio, following exercise, but IgA concentration and secretion rate were unaltered. Salivary HNP1-3 and LL-37 concentrations (P < 0.01 and P < 0.05, respectively), concentration:osmolality ratios (P < 0.01) and secretion rates (P < 0.01) all increased following exercise. Salivary antibacterial capacity (against E. coli) did not change. The increased concentration of AMPs in saliva may confer some benefit to the 'first line of defence' and could result from synergistic compensation within the mucosal immune system and/or airway inflammation and epithelial damage. Further study is required to determine the significance of such changes on the overall 'defence' capacity of saliva and how this influences the overall risk for infection.

Observations and analysis of a 63-year-old reinforced concrete promenade railing exposed to the North Sea

Despite being exposed to the harsh sea-spray environment of the North Sea at Arbroath, Scotland, for over 63 years, many of the reinforced concrete precast beam elements of the 1.5 km long promenade railing are still in very good condition and show little evidence of reinforcement corrosion. In contrast, railing replacements constructed in about 1968 and in 1993 are almost all badly cracked as a result of extensive corrosion of the longitudinal reinforcement. This is despite the newer concrete appearing to be of better quality than the 1943 concrete. Statistics for maximum crack width for each of the three populations, based on measurements made in 2004 and in 2006, are presented. In situ and laboratory measurements show that the 1943 concrete appears to have high permeability but it also shows high electrical resistivity. Chloride penetration measurements show the 1943 and 1993 concretes to have similar chloride profiles and similar chloride concentrations at the reinforcement bars. This is inconsistent with the 1943 beams showing much less reinforcement corrosion than their later replacements and casts doubt on the conventional practice for durability design focusing on reducing concrete permeability through denser concretes or greater cover.

Borehole Optimisation System (BOS) - a case study assessing options for abstraction of urban groundwater in Nottingham, UK

The recognition that urban groundwater is a potentially valuable resource for potable and industrial uses due to growing pressures on perceived less polluted rural groundwater has led to a requirement to assess the groundwater contamination risk in urban areas from industrial contaminants such as chlorinated solvents. The development of a probabilistic risk based management tool that predicts groundwater quality at potential new urban boreholes is beneficial in determining the best sites for future resource development. The Borehole Optimisation System (BOS) is a custom Geographic Information System (GIs) application that has been developed with the objective of identifying the optimum locations for new abstraction boreholes. BOS can be applied to any aquifer subject to variable contamination risk. The system is described in more detail by Tait et al. [Tait, N.G., Davison, J.J., Whittaker, J.J., Lehame, S.A. Lerner, D.N., 2004a. Borehole Optimisation System (BOS) - a GIs based risk analysis tool for optimising the use of urban groundwater. Environmental Modelling and Software 19, 1111-1124]. This paper applies the BOS model to an urban Permo-Triassic Sandstone aquifer in the city centre of Nottingham, UK. The risk of pollution in potential new boreholes from the industrial chlorinated solvent tetrachloroethene (PCE) was assessed for this region. The risk model was validated against contaminant concentrations from 6 actual field boreholes within the study area. In these studies the model generally underestimated contaminant concentrations. A sensitivity analysis showed that the most responsive model parameters were recharge, effective porosity and contaminant degradation rate. Multiple simulations were undertaken across the study area in order to create surface maps indicating areas of low PCE concentrations, thus indicating the best locations to place new boreholes. Results indicate that northeastern, eastern and central regions have the lowest potential PCE concentrations in abstraction groundwater and therefore are the best sites for locating new boreholes. These locations coincide with aquifer areas that are confined by low permeability Mercia Mudstone deposits. Conversely southern and northwestern areas are unconfined and have shallower depth to groundwater. These areas have the highest potential PCE concentrations. These studies demonstrate the applicability of BOS as a tool for informing decision makers on the development of urban groundwater resources. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Molecular detection of exercise-induced free radicals following ascorbate prophylaxis in type 1 diabetes mellitus: a randomised controlled trial

Aims/hypothesis: Patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus are more susceptible than healthy individuals to exercise-induced oxidative stress and vascular endothelial dysfunction, which has important implications for the progression of disease. Thus, in the present study, we designed a randomised double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to test the original hypothesis that oral prophylaxis with vitamin C attenuates rest and exercise-induced free radical-mediated lipid peroxidation in type 1 diabetes mellitus. Methods: All data were collected from hospitalised diabetic patients. The electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopic detection of spin-trapped a-phenyl-tert-butylnitrone (PBN) adducts was combined with the use of supporting markers of lipid peroxidation and non-enzymatic antioxidants to assess exercise-induced oxidative stress in male patients with type 1 diabetes (HbA1c 7.9±1%, n=12) and healthy controls (HbA1c 4.6±0.5%, n=14). Following participant randomisation using numbers in a sealed envelope, venous blood samples were obtained at rest, after a maximal exercise challenge and before and 2 h after oral ingestion of 1 g ascorbate or placebo. Participants and lead investigators were blinded to the administration of either placebo or ascorbate treatments. Primary outcome was the difference in changes in free radicals following ascorbate ingestion. Resuts: Six diabetic patients and seven healthy control participants were randomised to each of the placebo and ascorbate groups. Diabetic patients (n=12) exhibited an elevated concentration of PBN adducts (p<0.05 vs healthy, n=14), which were confirmed as secondary, lipid-derived oxygen-centred alkoxyl (RO•) radicals (a nitrogen=1.37 mT and aßhydrogen=0.18 mT). Lipid hydroperoxides were also selectively elevated and associated with a depression of retinol and lycopene (p<0.05 vs healthy). Vitamin C supplementation increased plasma vitamin C concentration to a similar degree in both groups (p<0.05 vs pre-supplementation) and attenuated the exercise-induced oxidative stress response (p<0.05 vs healthy). There were no selective treatment differences between groups in the primary outcome variable. Conclusions/ interpretation: These findings are the first to suggest that oral vitamin C supplementation provides an effective prophylaxis against exercise-induced free radical-mediated lipid peroxidation in human diabetic blood.

Acute exercise and impaired glucose tolerance in obese humans

BACKGROUND: Individuals with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) have a greater risk of developing diabetes and cardiovascular disease compared with those with normal glycemic control. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of acute aerobic exercise on glycemia, regional arterial stiffness, and oxidative stress in obese subjects with IGT.

Regret as autobiographical memory

We apply all autobiographical memory framework to the Study of regret. Focusing oil the distinction between regrets for specific and general events we argue that the temporal profile of regret, usually explained in terms of the action-inaction distinction, is predicted by models of autobiographical memory. In two studies involving Participants in their sixties we demonstrate a reminiscence bump for general, but not for specific regrets. Recent regrets were more likely to be specific than general in nature. Coding regrets as actions/inactions revealed that general regrets were significantly more likely to be due to inaction while specific regrets were as likely to be clue to action as to inaction. In Study 2 we also generalised all of these findings to a group of participants in their 40s. We re-interpret existing accounts of the temporal profile of regret within the autobiographical memory framework, and Outline the practical and theoretical advantages Of Our memory-based distinction over traditional decision-making approaches to the Study of regret. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.