Assessment of the damage caused by flood rains and landslides in association with hurricane Michelle, october 2001: implications for economic, social and environmental development

Preface This study was prepared for the Government of Jamaica following the significant physical damage and economic losses that the country sustained as a result of flood rains associated with the development of Hurricane Michelle. The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) submitted a request for assistance in undertaking a social, environmental and economic impact assessment to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) on 14 November 2001. ECLAC responded with haste and modified its work plan to accommodate the request. A request for training in the use of the ECLAC Methodology to be delivered to personnel in Jamaica was deferred until the first quarter of 2002, as it was impossible to mount such an initiative at such short notice. This appraisal considers the consequences of the three instances of heavy rainfall that brought on the severe flooding and loss of property and livelihoods. The study was prepared by three members of the ECLAC Natural Disaster Damage Assessment Team over a period of one week in order to comply with the request that it be presented to the Prime Minister on 3 December 2001. The team has endeavoured to complete a workload that would take two weeks with a team of 15 members working assiduously with data already prepared in preliminary form by the national emergency stakeholders. There is need for training in disaster assessment as evidenced by the data collected by the Jamaican officials engaged in the exercise. Their efforts in the future will be more focused and productive after they have received training in the use of the ECLAC Methodology. This study undertakes a sectoral analysis leading to an overall assessment of the damage. It appraises the macroeconomic and social effects and proposes some guidelines for action including mitigating actions subsequent to the devastation caused by the weather system. The team is grateful for the efforts of the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM), the associated government ministries and agencies, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), the Planning Institute of Jamaica and the Inter American Development Bank (IDB) for assistance rendered to the team. Indeed, it is the recommendation of the team that STATIN is poised to play a pivotal role in any disaster damage assessment and should be taken on board in that regard. The direct and indirect damages have been assessed in accordance with the methodology developed by ECLAC (1). The results presented are based on the mission's estimates. The study incorporates the information made available to the team and evidence collected in interviews and visits to affected locations. It is estimated that the magnitude of the losses exceeds the country's capacity to address reparations and mitigation without serious dislocation of its development trajectory. The government may wish to approach the international community for assistance in this regard. This appraisal is therefore designed to provide the government and the international community with guidelines for setting national and regional priorities in rehabilitation and reconstruction or resettlement programmes. A purely economic conception of the problem would be limited. A more integrated approach would have a human face and consider the alleviation of human suffering in the affected areas while attending to the economic and fiscal fallout of the disaster. Questions of improved physical planning, watershed management, early warning, emergency response and structural preparedness for evacuation and sheltering the vulnerable population are seen as important considerations for the post disaster phase. Special attention and priority should be placed on including sustainability and increased governance criteria in making social and productive investments, and on allocating resources to the reinforcing and retrofitting of vulnerable infrastructure, basic lifelines and services as part of the reconstruction and rehabilitation strategy. The Jamaican society and government face the opportunity of undertaking action with the benefit of revised paradigms, embarking on institutional, legal and structural reforms to reduce economic, social and environmental vulnerability. The history of flood devastation in the very areas of Portland and St. Mary shows a recurrence of flooding. Accounts of flooding from the earliest recorded accounts pertaining to 1837 are available. Recurrences in 1937, 1940, 1943 and 2001 indicate an ever-present probability of recurrence of similar events. The Government may wish to consider the probable consequences of a part of its population living in flood plains and address its position vis-à­¶is land use and the probability of yet another recurrence of flood rains. (1) ECLAC/IDNDR, Manual for estimating the Socio-Economic Effects of Natural Disasters, May,1999.

Urban transport planning in a context of demographic, social, economic and technological change

Transport planning necessarily takes into account more than just the immediate time-frame. In the case of urban transport, planning needs to come up with solutions in regard to infrastructure which is expensive and may have a useful life extending over several decades. Therefore, planning must take note of economic, technological, social and demographic changes that influence trips undertaken.The purpose of this article is to explore some of the trends that may well be observed in upcoming decades. The article arrives at the conclusion that, in a period of considerable change and uncertainty, failure to take heed of recent trends may result in the construction of infrastructure that is not always the most appropriate and, what is more, that urban development militates against the efficient operation of public transport and, as a result, is likely to jeopardize the sustainability of cities in the long term.

Transport planning and its impact on city competitiveness

The economic and productive development of a region is closely tied to its transport infrastructure. Adequate transport infrastructure enables companies to increase their production levels as a result of lowered logistical costs, inventory savings and access to larger supply and labour markets. The competitiveness of a city depends on elements of its economy and other aspects such as social disciplines. Despite being a rather broadly defined concept, it is widely used to categorise and compare cities, projecting the image of a prosperous city in the public eye. The aim of this issue of the Bulletin is to identify the role played by investments in transport in the competitiveness of a specific city and to demonstrate the need for adequate transport planning to ensure that economic development does not interfere with the quality of life of city dwellers.

Report of the planning meeting of partners of the Caribbean Information Societies Measurement Initiative

The Planning Meeting of Partners was organized jointly by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean, the Observatory for the Information Society in Latin America and the Caribbean (OSILAC - an ECLAC project supported by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), the University of West Indies (UWI), St. Augustine Campus and the Telecommunications Policy and Management Programme, Mona School of Business at UWI, Jamaica. The Caribbean Information Societies Measurement Initiative (CISMI) is a component of the research proposal entitled “Networks for Development: The Caribbean ICT Research Programme”, recently submitted to IDRC for funding approval. The main objective of this programme is to “promote multi-stakeholder knowledge exchange and dialogue about the potential contribution of Information and Communications Technology for economic development and poverty alleviation in the Caribbean” The proposed budget for the CISMI component within the aforementioned proposal is US$ 150,000. The main objectives of the CISMI component are twofold: (a) to conduct a comprehensive Information and Communications Technology (ICT) survey in the Caribbean subregion to cover baseline information needs for studies and analysis from different partners involved in the construction of the Caribbean Information Societies; and (b) to analyze the household-level data, including the status of broadband and mobile usage in selected Caribbean countries in order to promote evidence-based policy planning and implementation with respect to ICT development and its impact on social and economic development in the subregion. The Planning Meeting of Partners was convened to: (a) discuss the CISMI component partnership arrangements, (b) discuss the design and implementation mechanisms of the survey instrument (questionnaire); (c) inform and engage potential key stakeholders; and (d) obtain information from potential service providers (survey companies). The Planning Meeting of Partners took place on 28 and 29 September 2009 in Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago.

The use of databases of social and gender statistics in the development of policies and programmes

The unavailability of data to inform policy planning and formulation has been repeatedly cited as the main challenge to economic and social progress in the Caribbean. Furthermore, even in instances when data is produced, broader gaps exist between its production and eventual use for evidence-based policy formulation. Owing to those challenges, this report explores the use of databases of social and gender statistics in the development of policies and programmes in the Caribbean subregion. The report offers a general appraisal of databases against two main considerations: (i) maximizing the use of existing databases in relevant policies and programmes; and (ii) bridging the gaps in data availability of relevant statistical databases and their analyses. The assessment entailed an inventory of social and gender databases maintained by data producers in the region and analysis of the extent to which the databases are used for policy formulation. To that end, a literature search as well as consultations with a number of knowledgeable persons active in the field of statistics and data provision was conducted. Based on the review, a set of recommendations were produced to improve current practices within the region with respect evidence based policy formulation.

Network for Cooperation in Integrated Water Resource Management for Sustainable Development in Latin America and the Caribbean No. 2

The second issue of the Circular marks the first milestone in the life of the Network, because it fulfils our intent to publish it on a regular basis at least twice a year. The emphasis in this issue is on planning at the level of the river basin.

The 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals: An opportunity for Latin America and the Caribbean

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, adopted by the 193 Member States of the United Nations at the General Assembly in September 2015, outlines a transformative vision for economic, social and environmental development and will guide the work of the Organization towards this vision for the next 15 years. This new road map presents a historic opportunity for Latin America and the Caribbean, since it addresses some of the region’s most urgent priorities, such as reducing inequality in all its dimensions, promoting inclusive economic growth with decent work for all, creating sustainable cities and addressing climate change. The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) associated with the Agenda help the region’s countries to gauge the starting point from which they set out towards this new, collective vision of sustainable development set forth in the 2030 Agenda and to analyse and craft the means of its implementation. The SDGs also represent a planning tool for the countries at the national and local levels. With their long-term approach, they offer support for each country on its path towards sustained, inclusive and environmentally friendly development, through the formulation of public policies and budget, monitoring and evaluation instruments. The 2030 Agenda is a civilizing agenda that places dignity and equality at the centre. At once far-sighted and ambitious, its implementation will require the engagement of all sectors of society and of the State. Accordingly, the representatives of governments, civil society, academic institutions and the private sector are invited to take ownership of this ambitious agenda, to discuss and embrace it as a tool for the creation of inclusive, fair societies that serve the citizens of today as well as future generations.

Inland waterways classification as a tool for public policy and planning: core concepts and proposals for South America

This FAL Bulletin looks at the classification of navigable inland waterways in South America. It describes an existing classification system (ECMT/UNECE), noting its role in the development of river transport, based on which it discusses lessons learned and presents a preliminary proposal for a classification for South America.

Development and characterization of microsatellite markers for Brazilian four-eyed frogs (genus Pleurodema) endemic to the Caatinga biome

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Longitudinal study of habits leading to malocclusion development in childhood

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Dental development of children and adolescents with cleft lip and palate

Aim: To evaluate the dental development of Brazilian children and adolescents with cleft lip and palate. Methods: The sample consisted of 107 panoramic radiographs of children and adolescents with cleft lip and/or palate (cleft group) and 107 panoramic radiographs of children and adolescents without cleft lip and/or palate (control group), with chronological ages ranging from 6 to 15 years, matched in gender and chronological age within 60 days. Radiographs were digitized and masked and dental age was assessed using the method described by Demirjian et al. (1973). Three trained examiners conducted the assessments. Each examiner evaluated the radiographs three times. Data were statistically analyzed using non-parametric tests and univariate linear regression (p<0.05). Results: The dental age was overestimated in relation to the chronological age in both groups (p<0.0001). Compared to the control group, there was a delay in the dental age in the cleft group of 0.17 years (2.1 months). However, no statistically significant difference in the dental age between the cleft and the control group was found even when considering the different cleft types (p=0.152). Conclusions: There was no statistically significant difference in the dental age between the cleft and the control groups. The evaluation of dental development in individuals with cleft lip and palate should be approached in the same way as in individuals without clefts, with a focus on the individualization of diagnosis and treatment planning.

Student Writing Performance: Identifying the Effects when Combining Planning and Revising Instructional Strategies

The purpose of the current study is to identify the impact of teaching students to revise their stories on writing production (Total Words Written; TWW), writing accuracy (Percent Correct Writing Sequences; %CWS), number of critical story elements included in stories, and quality of writing. Three third-grade and one fourth-grade student who were experiencing difficulties in the area of writing were involved in the study. The students were first taught to plan their stories using the evidence-based program, Self-Regulated Strategy Development (SRSD), which has frequently been implemented to teach students to plan their stories. Students were then taught to revise their stories using SRSD procedures modified for instruction in revision strategies. Student progress was evaluated through a multiple-probe design across tasks and a multiple-probe design across participants, which allowed for experimental control over time and across story probes. In addition to the previously mentioned variables, student’s acceptability of the intervention and their attitudes toward writing were also assessed. Results indicated that instruction in revising increased student writing accuracy beyond the effects of instruction in planning. Additionally, although instruction in planning was shown to increase writing production, number of critical story elements, and quality of writing, instruction in revising produced additional improvement in these variables as well. Finally, results indicated that students liked the intervention and their attitudes toward writing generally increased. Implications for practice and future research directions will be discussed. Advisor: Merilee McCurdy

Guidelines for the Brazilian ceramic sector strategic development, based on a comparison with the Italian market

Based on a structured literature review, the ceramic tiles sector of Italy (benchmark) and Brazil (2nd world producer and consumer) are compared, under four strategic factors: normative, market, technology and strategic management, in order to identify critical risks for a national strategic sector. The document aims to propose guidelines for a strategic re-planning of the Brazilian ceramic tiles sector, making the Brazilian producers aware of the national market fragility (in spite of its recent remarkable evolution) and helping the policy makers to reflect on the need of reviewing the strategic planning methods and practice, of designing new targeted programs (based on coherence between operation and business strategies), of providing improved management to strengthen the sector against unfair competition by low-cost producers, enhancing the necessary infrastructure in technology, work, marketing and quality management. The analysis is limited to the single-firing production technology. The wide-coverage strategic analysis of the Brazilian ceramic tiles sector, very little studied until now in a scientific way, emphasizes the importance of applying research methodology and may be valuable to both scholars and practitioners. Additionally, it highlights the need of investments in innovation (product design and production technology) and the fundamental role of the sector organization, identifying different dimensions. It is possible to conclude that the recent Brazilian production growth is not due to a natural strengthening because of the hit of the sector and of correct enterprises strategy, but it seems the result of a temporary and favorable economic contingency.

Engineering geological data in support of municipal land use planning-a case study in Analandia, southeast Brazil

This paper presents a method for transforming the information of an engineering geological map into useful information for non-specialists involved in land-use planning. The method consists of classifying the engineering geological units in terms of land use capability and identifying the legal and the geologic restrictions that apply in the study area. Both informations are then superimposed over the land use and a conflict areas map is created. The analysis of these data leads to the identification of existing and forthcoming land use conflicts and enables the proposal of planning measures on a regional and local scale. The map for the regional planning was compiled at a 1:50,000 scale and encompasses the whole municipal land area where uses are mainly rural. The map for the local planning was compiled at a 1:10,000 scale and encompasses the urban area. Most of the classification and operations on maps used spatial analyst tools available in the Geographical Information System. The regional studies showed that the greater part of Analandia's territory presents appropriate land uses. The local-scale studies indicate that the majority of the densely occupied urban areas are in suitable land. Although the situation is in general positive, municipal policies should address the identified and expected land use conflicts, so that it can be further improved.