Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science

Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader's own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) : A pedagogical guide for decision makers in the public sector

This guide introduces Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), a performance measurement technique, in such a way as to be appropriate to decision makers with little or no background in economics and operational research. The use of mathematics is kept to a minimum. This guide therefore adopts a strong practical approach in order to allow decision makers to conduct their own efficiency analysis and to easily interpret results. DEA helps decision makers for the following reasons: - By calculating an efficiency score, it indicates if a firm is efficient or has capacity for improvement. - By setting target values for input and output, it calculates how much input must be decreased or output increased in order to become efficient. - By identifying the nature of returns to scale, it indicates if a firm has to decrease or increase its scale (or size) in order to minimize the average cost. - By identifying a set of benchmarks, it specifies which other firms' processes need to be analysed in order to improve its own practices.

Effects of anxiety on visuospatial pattern discrimination and decision-making processes: what can we learn from brain dynamics ?

Detection and discrimination of visuospatial input involve at least extracting, selecting and encoding relevant information and decision-making processes allowing selecting a response. These two operations are altered, respectively, by attentional mechanisms that change discrimination capacities, and by beliefs concerning the likelihood of uncertain events. Information processing is tuned by the attentional level that acts like a filter on perception, while decision-making processes are weighed by subjective probability of risk. In addition, it has been shown that anxiety could affect the detection of unexpected events through the modification of the level of arousal. Consequently, purpose of this study concerns whether and how decision-making and brain dynamics are affected by anxiety. To investigate these questions, the performance of women with either a high (12) or a low (12) STAI-T (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, Spielberger, 1983) was examined in a decision-making visuospatial task where subjects have to recognize a target visual pattern from non-target patterns. The target pattern was a schematic image of furniture arranged in such a way as to give the impression of a living room. Non-target patterns were created by either the compression or the dilatation of the distances between objects. Target and non-target patterns were always presented in the same configuration. Preliminary behavioral results show no group difference in reaction time. In addition, visuo-spatial abilities were analyzed trough the signal detection theory for quantifying perceptual decisions in the presence of uncertainty (Green and Swets, 1966). This theory treats detection of a stimulus as a decision-making process determined by the nature of the stimulus and cognitive factors. Astonishingly, no difference in d' (corresponding to the distance between means of the distributions) and c (corresponds to the likelihood ratio) indexes was observed. Comparison of Event-related potentials (ERP) reveals that brain dynamics differ according to anxiety. It shows differences in component latencies, particularly a delay in anxious subjects over posterior electrode sites. However, these differences are compensated during later components by shorter latencies in anxious subjects compared to non-anxious one. These inverted effects seem indicate that the absence of difference in reaction time rely on a compensation of attentional level that tunes cortical activation in anxious subjects, but they have to hammer away to maintain performance.

Immunoglobulin classes in aquatic mammals. Characterization by serologic cross-reactivity, molecular size and binding of human free secretory component.

On the basis of serologic cross-reactivity, three immunoglobulin classes homologous to human IgG, IgM and IgA were identified in two species of acquatic mammal representing the orders Cetacea (dolphin) and Pinnipedea (sea lion). Molecular size was estimated by sucrose density gradient ultracentrifugation and Sephadex G-200 chromatography, indicating a 7S IgG, 19S IgM and heterogeneous serum IgA. Human secretory component was readily bound to the IgM of both species and to an apparently lesser extent to the larger molecular size populations of IgA. No binding was observed with IgG. Several antisera specific for human γ-chains gave a single precipitin line with the sea lion IgG but when made to react with dolphin serum produced two lines, suggesting the presence of two different subclasses of IgG in this species.

Dose-dependent positive association between cigarette smoking, abdominal obesity and body fat: cross-sectional data from a population-based survey.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Although smokers tend to have a lower body-mass index than non-smokers, smoking may favour abdominal body fat accumulation. To our knowledge, no population-based studies have assessed the relationship between smoking and body fat composition. We assessed the association between cigarette smoking and waist circumference, body fat, and body-mass index. METHODS: Height, weight, and waist circumference were measured among 6,123 Caucasians (ages 35-75) from a cross-sectional population-based study in Switzerland. Abdominal obesity was defined as waist circumference>=102 cm for men and >=88 cm for women. Body fat (percent total body weight) was measured by electrical bioimpedance. Age- and sex-specific body fat cut-offs were used to define excess body fat. Cigarettes smoked per day were assessed by self-administered questionnaire. Age-adjusted means and odds ratios were calculated using linear and logistic regression. RESULTS: Current smokers (29% of men and 24% of women) had lower mean waist circumference, body fat percentage, and body-mass index compared with non-smokers. Age-adjusted mean waist circumference and body fat increased with cigarettes smoked per day among smokers. The association between cigarettes smoked per day and body-mass index was non-significant. Compared with light smokers, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) for abdominal obesity in men was 1.28 (0.78-2.10) for moderate smokers and 1.94 (1.15-3.27) for heavy smokers (P=0.03 for trend), and 1.07 (0.72-1.58) and 2.15 (1.26-3.64) in female moderate and heavy smokers, respectively (P<0.01 for trend). Compared with light smokers, the OR for excess body fat in men was 1.05 (95% CI: 0.58-1.92) for moderate smokers and 1.15 (0.60-2.20) for heavy smokers (P=0.75 for trend) and 1.34 (0.89-2.00) and 2.11 (1.25-3.57), respectively in women (P=0.07 for trend). CONCLUSION: Among smokers, cigarettes smoked per day were positively associated with central fat accumulation, particularly in women.

Decision analysis for the genotype designation in low-template-DNA profiles

What genotype should the scientist specify for conducting a database search to try to find the source of a low-template-DNA (lt-DNA) trace? When the scientist answers this question, he or she makes a decision. Here, we approach this decision problem from a normative point of view by defining a decision-theoretic framework for answering this question for one locus. This framework combines the probability distribution describing the uncertainty over the trace's donor's possible genotypes with a loss function describing the scientist's preferences concerning false exclusions and false inclusions that may result from the database search. According to this approach, the scientist should choose the genotype designation that minimizes the expected loss. To illustrate the results produced by this approach, we apply it to two hypothetical cases: (1) the case of observing one peak for allele xi on a single electropherogram, and (2) the case of observing one peak for allele xi on one replicate, and a pair of peaks for alleles xi and xj, i ≠ j, on a second replicate. Given that the probabilities of allele drop-out are defined as functions of the observed peak heights, the threshold values marking the turning points when the scientist should switch from one designation to another are derived in terms of the observed peak heights. For each case, sensitivity analyses show the impact of the model's parameters on these threshold values. The results support the conclusion that the procedure should not focus on a single threshold value for making this decision for all alleles, all loci and in all laboratories.

Protein-DNA associations in a gender-specific gene of Schistosoma mansoni: characterization by UV cross-linking, DNase I footprinting and band shift assays

Protein extracts obtained from male and female shistosomes were incubated with a gender-specific gene, F-10, transcribed only in adult females and encoding a major egg-shell protein. The protein/DNA interaction was measured using the band shift, DNase-I-footprinting and UV cross-linking techniques. The results showed a clear band shift when a 302 bp restriction fragment containing the 3'end of the gene was incubated with either female or male proteins. This fragment also contained a putative steroid hormone regulatory element (HRE). In contrast, only the male proteins produced a shift with the 495 bp fragment corresponding to the middle region of the gene. DNase I footprinting showed that proteins from males and females interacted with the F-10 gene by binding to multiple adjacent sites along the DNA, thus generatingrelatively long protected fragments of approximately 100 bp. This result suggested that the adjacent binding of several moles of proteins occured at the 5'end of the gene. UV cross-linking between schistosome proteins and a 21 bp synthetic oligonucleotide the F-10 HRE, evidence proteins having MWS of 30,45 and 65 kDNA. These proteins are presumably involved in the regulation of transcription of the F-10 gene.

A drug administration decision support system

Drug delivery is one of the most common clinical routines in hospitals, and is critical to patients' health and recovery. It includes a decision making process in which a medical doctor decides the amount (dose) and frequency (dose interval) on the basis of a set of available patients' feature data and the doctor's clinical experience (a priori adaptation). This process can be computerized in order to make the prescription procedure in a fast, objective, inexpensive, non-invasive and accurate way. This paper proposes a Drug Administration Decision Support System (DADSS) to help clinicians/patients with the initial dose computing. The system is based on a Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm for estimation of the potential drug concentration in the blood of a patient, from which a best combination of dose and dose interval is selected at the level of a DSS. The addition of the RANdom SAmple Consensus (RANSAC) technique enhances the prediction accuracy by selecting inliers for SVM modeling. Experiments are performed for the drug imatinib case study which shows more than 40% improvement in the prediction accuracy compared with previous works. An important extension to the patient features' data is also proposed in this paper.

Cross-sectional and evolutive studies of schistosomiasis mansoni in untreated and mass treated endemic areas in the southeast and northeast of Brazil

Cross-sectional and evolutive studies on schistosomiasis mansoni were carried out before and after mass treatment in the endemic areas of Capitao Andrade and Padre Paraíso, state of Minas Gerais, Riachuelo, state of Sergipe, Alhandra, state of Paraíba, and Aliança, Alegre and Coroatá, lowland of the state of Maranhao, Brazil, in the last eighteen years. The studies included clinical and fecal examination by the Kato-Katz quantitative technique, skin testfor Schistosoma mansoni infection, evaluation of man-water contact and other epidemiological investigations such as infection rate and dynamic of the snail population. Results showed: (1) Higher prevalence of S. mansoni infection, greater egg load elimination and higher and earlier morbidity of the chronic froms of the disease in the southeast areas of Capitao Andrade and Padre Paraíso; (2) The incidence of hepatosplenic form is higher in some family clusters, in whites and mullattos in all the endemic areas but develop earlier in the southeast; (3) The prevalence and morbidity of schistosomiasis are decreasing both in the mass treated northeast and in the untreated southeast areas; (4) The mass treatment reduces rapidily the prevalence of the infection and the morbidity of the disease but can not control it because of the frequent reinfections due to the intensity of man-water contact.

Impact of voting advice applications on voters's decision-making

So-called online Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) have become very popular all over Europe. Millions of voters are using them as an assistance to make up their minds for which party they should vote. Despite this popularity there are only very few studies about the impact of these tools on individual electoral choice. On the basis of the Swiss VAA smartvote we present some first findings about the question whether VAAs do have a direct impact on the actual vote of their users. In deed, we find strong evidence that Swiss voters were affected by smartvote. However, our findings are somewhat contrary to the results of previous studies from other countries. Furthermore, the quality of available data for such studies needs to be improved. Future studies should pay attention to both: the improvement of the available data, as well as the explanation of the large variance of findings between the specific European countries.

A decision-making Fokker-Planck model in computational neuroscience

Minimal models for the explanation of decision-making in computational neuroscience are based on the analysis of the evolution for the average firing rates of two interacting neuron populations. While these models typically lead to multi-stable scenario for the basic derived dynamical systems, noise is an important feature of the model taking into account finite-size effects and robustness of the decisions. These stochastic dynamical systems can be analyzed by studying carefully their associated Fokker-Planck partial differential equation. In particular, we discuss the existence, positivity and uniqueness for the solution of the stationary equation, as well as for the time evolving problem. Moreover, we prove convergence of the solution to the the stationary state representing the probability distribution of finding the neuron families in each of the decision states characterized by their average firing rates. Finally, we propose a numerical scheme allowing for simulations performed on the Fokker-Planck equation which are in agreement with those obtained recently by a moment method applied to the stochastic differential system. Our approach leads to a more detailed analytical and numerical study of this decision-making model in computational neuroscience.

Decision making in a human population living sustainably

The Tiwi people of northern Australia have managed natural resources continuously for 6000-8000 years. Tiwi management objectives and outcomes may reflect how they gather information about the environment. We qualitatively analyzed Tiwi documents and management techniques to examine the relation between the social and physical environment of decision makers and their decision-making strategies. We hypothesized that principles of bounded rationality, namely, the use of efficient rules to navigate complex decision problems, explain how Tiwi managers use simple decision strategies (i.e., heuristics) to make robust decisions. Tiwi natural resource managers reduced complexity in decision making through a process that gathers incomplete and uncertain information to quickly guide decisions toward effective outcomes. They used management feedback to validate decisions through an information loop that resulted in long-term sustainability of environmental use. We examined the Tiwi decision-making processes relative to management of barramundi (Lates calcarifer) fisheries and contrasted their management with the state government's management of barramundi. Decisions that enhanced the status of individual people and their attainment of aspiration levels resulted in reliable resource availability for Tiwi consumers. Different decision processes adopted by the state for management of barramundi may not secure similarly sustainable outcomes.

Cultural competency of health-care providers in a Swiss University Hospital: self-assessed cross-cultural skillfulness in a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: As the diversity of the European population evolves, measuring providers' skillfulness in cross-cultural care and understanding what contextual factors may influence this is increasingly necessary. Given limited information about differences in cultural competency by provider role, we compared cross-cultural skillfulness between physicians and nurses working at a Swiss university hospital. METHODS: A survey on cross-cultural care was mailed in November 2010 to front-line providers in Lausanne, Switzerland. This questionnaire included some questions from the previously validated Cross-Cultural Care Survey. We compared physicians' and nurses' mean composite scores and proportion of "3-good/4-very good" responses, for nine perceived skillfulness items (4-point Likert-scale) using the validated tool. We used linear regression to examine how provider role (physician vs. nurse) was associated with composite skillfulness scores, adjusting for demographics (gender, non-French dominant language), workplace (time at institution, work-unit "sensitized" to cultural-care), reported cultural-competence training, and cross-cultural care problem-awareness. RESULTS: Of 885 questionnaires, 368 (41.2%) returned the survey: 124 (33.6%) physicians and 244 (66.4%) nurses, reflecting institutional distribution of providers. Physicians had better mean composite scores for perceived skillfulness than nurses (2.7 vs. 2.5, p < 0.005), and significantly higher proportion of "good/very good" responses for 4/9 items. After adjusting for explanatory variables, physicians remained more likely to have higher skillfulness (β = 0.13, p = 0.05). Among all, higher skillfulness was associated with perception/awareness of problems in the following areas: inadequate cross-cultural training (β = 0.14, p = 0.01) and lack of practical experience caring for diverse populations (β = 0.11, p = 0.04). In stratified analyses among physicians alone, having French as a dominant language (β = -0.34, p < 0.005) was negatively correlated with skillfulness. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, there is much room for cultural competency improvement among providers. These results support the need for cross-cultural skills training with an inter-professional focus on nurses, education that attunes provider awareness to the local issues in cross-cultural care, and increased diversity efforts in the work force, particularly among physicians.

Public particiation and the legitimacy of intergovernmental decision-making : a focus on the World Trade Organization

The legitimacy of the WTO's decision-making process has always been questioned, and many have advocated public participation mechanisms as a remedy. The present study considers the limits and potential of these mechanisms by advancing a conceptual framework, which distinguishes the four 'implementation parameters' of public participation: the goal, the object, the modalities, and the actors. It addresses the issue of legitimacy by considering to what extent, and by virtue of which legal developments, one can see implementing the democratic principle as a goal for public participation in the context of the WTO. By analyzing the institutional structure of the WTO and its different types of decisions, it then outlines how this goal should influence the object and modalities of public participation, which decision-making procedures should be opened to public participation, and how the mechanisms should be implemented in practice. Finally, it suggests speciflrc amendments to existing WTO affangements on public participation

Juridical double taxation by cross border transactions: the Block Case (C-67/08)

Treaty Establishing the European Community, operative until December 1st 2009, had already established in its article 2 the mission of the up until then European Community and actual European Union is to promote an harmonious, equilibrated and sustainable development of the economic activities of the whole Community. This Mission must be achieved by establishing a Common Market, an Economic and Monetary Union and the realization of Common Policies. One of the instruments to obtain these objectives is the use of free circulation of people, services and capitals inside the Common and Interior Market of the European Union. The European Union is characterized by the confirmation of the total movement of capitals, services and individuals and legal peoples’ freedom; freedom that was already predicated by the Maastricht Treaty, through the suppression of whatever obstacles which are in the way of the objectives before exposed. The old TEC in its Title III, now Title IV of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, covered the free circulation of people, services and capitals. Consequently, the inclusion of this mechanism inside one of the regulating texts of the European Union indicates the importance this freedom supposes for the European Union objectives’ development. Once stood up the relevance of the free movement of people, services and capitals, we must mention that in this paper we are going to centre our study in one of these freedoms of movement: the free movement of capital. In order to analyze in detail the free movement of capital within the European framework, we are going to depart from the analysis of the existent case law of the Court of Justice of the European Union. The use of jurisprudence is basic to know how Community legislation is interpreted. For this reason, we are going to develop this work through judgements dictated by the European Union Court. This way we can observe how Member States’ regulating laws and the European Common Law affect the free movement of capital. The starting point of this paper will be the Judgement C-67/08 European Court of Justice of February 12th 2009, known as Block case. So, following the argumentation the Luxemburg Court did about the mentioned case, we are going to develop how free movement of capital could be affected by the current disparity of Member States’ legislation. This disparity can produce double taxation cases due to the lack of tax harmonized legislation within the interior market and the lack of treaties to avoid double taxation within the European Union. Developing this idea we are going to see how double taxation, at least indirectly, can infringe free movement of capital.