Learning from insurance data: Injuries to other road users in motorcyclist at-fault crashes

In multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes, the motorcycle rider is less likely to be at-fault but more commonly severely injured than the other road user. Therefore, not surprisingly, crashes in which motorcycle riders are at-fault and particularly the injuries to the other road users in these crashes have received little research attention. This paper aims to address this gap in the literature by investigating the factors influencing the severity of injury to other road users in motorcyclist-at-fault crashes. Five years of data from Queensland, Australia, were obtained from a database of claims against the compulsory third party (CTP) injury insurance of the at-fault motorcyclists. Analysis of the data using an ordered probit model shows higher injury severity for crashes involving young (under 25) and older (60+) at-fault motorcyclists. Among the not at-fault road users, the young, old, and males were found to be more severely injured than others. Injuries to vehicle occupants were less severe than those to pillions. Crashes that occurred between vehicles traveling in opposite directions resulted in more severe injuries than those involving vehicles traveling in the same direction. While most existing studies have analyzed police reported crash data, this study used CTP insurance data. Comparison of results indicates the potential of using CTP insurance data as an alternative to police reported crash data for gaining a better understanding of risk factors for motorcycle crashes and injury severity.

Incredible but true 1921-2005

The memoir was subtitled "A Collection of recollections", and is a collection of various, all but two previously published, essays and articles which cover different aspects of Mr. Brown's life. They are organized in 4 main chapters, "From cradle to crash" (1921-1938), "Exile and Exhaustion" (1938-47), "Life and Liberty" (1947-87), and "Retired and Retried" (1987-2005). As Mr. Brown states, his stories are "true in essence but not in form".

Aus meinem Leben 1899-1918

The memoir was written between 1899 and 1918. Family history going back to the early 18th century. Recollection of the author's childhood in Hildesheim. Moritz was the youngest child of Joseph and Bena Guedemann. Early death of his father in 1847. Moritz attended the Jewish elementary school prior to the age of five. In 1843 he was enrolled in the episcopal "Josephinum Gymnasium", where he was the only Jewish student in the entire school. He had friendly relationships with students and teachers and was not confronted with antisemitism during his school years. Moritz Guedemann graduated in 1853 and enrolled in the newly established Jewish Theological Seminary in Breslau. Description of teachers and colleagues in the seminary. Doctorate in 1858 and continuation of rabbinic studies. Occasional invitation to preach at the high holidays in Berlin, where Moritz got acquainted with the famous rabbi Dr. Michael Sachs. Position as a rabbi in Magdeburg in 1862. Small publications of studies in Jewish history. Engagement with Fanny Spiegel. In 1863 Moritz and Fanny Guedemann got married. Offer to succeed rabbi Michael Sachs in Berlin. Division and intrigues in the Jewish community and withdrawing from the position. Invitation to give a sermon in Vienna. In 1866 Moritz Guedemann was nominated to succeed rabbi Mannheimer at the Leopoldstadt synagogue in Vienna. Austro-Prussian war and defeat of Austria in Koeniggraetz. Initial difficulties and cultural differences. Criticism toward his orthodox conduct in the Vienna Jewish press ("Neuzeit"). Cultural life in Vienna. Welfare institutions and philanthropists. Difference within the Jewish community. Crash of the stock exchange and rise of antisemitism. Publication of sermons and studies in Jewish history. In 1891 Max Guedemann became chief rabbi of Vienna. Speeches against antisemitism and blood libel trials. He was awarded with the title "Ritter" of the Kaiser Franz Joseph order for these achievements. Death of his wife in

Inventing the Future: Intellectual Property and 3D Printing

A new technology – 3D printing – has the potential to make radical changes to aspects of the way in which we live. Put simply, it allows people to download designs and turn them into physical objects by laying down successive layers of material. Replacements or parts for household objects such as toys, utensils and gadgets could become available at the press of a button. With this innovation, however, comes the need to consider impacts on a wide range of forms of intellectual property, as Dr Matthew Rimmer explains. 3D Printing is the latest in a long line of disruptive technologies – including photocopiers, cassette recorders, MP3 players, personal computers, peer to peer networks, and wikis – which have challenged intellectual property laws, policies, practices, and norms. As The Economist has observed, ‘Tinkerers with machines that turn binary digits into molecules are pioneering a whole new way of making things—one that could well rewrite the rules of manufacturing in much the same way as the PC trashed the traditional world of computing.’

Gap acceptance behavior of mobile phone distracted drivers at roundabouts

While mobile phones have become ubiquitous in modern society, the use of mobile phones while driving is increasing at an alarming rate despite the associated crash risks. A significant safety concern is that driving while distracted by a mobile phone is more prevalent among young drivers, a less experienced driving cohort with elevated crash risk. The objective of this study was to examine the gap acceptance behavior of distracted young drivers at roundabouts. The CARRS-Q Advanced Driving Simulator was used to test participants on a simulated gap acceptance scenario at roundabouts. Conflicting traffic from the right approach of a four-legged roundabout were programmed to have a series of vehicles having the gaps between them proportionately increased from two to six seconds. Thirty-two licensed young drivers drove the simulator under three phone conditions: baseline (no phone conversation), hands-free and handheld phone conversations. Results show that distracted drivers started responding to the gap acceptance scenario at a distance closer to the roundabout and approached the roundabout at slower speeds. They also decelerated at faster rates to reduce their speeds prior to gap acceptance compared to non-distracted drivers. Although accepted gap sizes were not significantly different across phone conditions, differences in the safety margins at various gap sizes—measured by Post Encroachment Time (PET) between the driven vehicle and the conflicting vehicle—were statistically significant across phone conditions. PETs for distracted drivers were smaller across different gap sizes, suggesting a lower safety margin taken by distracted drivers compared to non-distracted drivers. The results aid in understanding how cognitive distraction resulting from mobile phone conversations while driving influences driving behavior during gap acceptance at roundabouts.

An engineering or behavioural approach? A study into employee’s perceptions regarding the effectiveness of occupational road safety initiatives

Background and Aims Considerable variation has been documented with fleet safety interventions’ abilities to create lasting behavioural change, and research has neglected to consider employees’ perceptions regarding the effectiveness of fleet interventions. This is a critical oversight as employees’ beliefs and acceptance levels (as well as the perceived organisational commitment to safety) can ultimately influence levels of effectiveness, and this study aimed to examine such perceptions in Australian fleet settings. Method 679 employees sourced from four Australian organisations completed a safety climate questionnaire as well as provided perspectives about the effectiveness of 35 different safety initiatives. Results Countermeasures that were perceived as most effective were a mix of human and engineering-based approaches: - (a) purchasing safer vehicles; - (b) investigating serious vehicle incidents, and; - (c) practical driver skills training. In contrast, least effective countermeasures were considered to be: - (a) signing a promise card; - (b) advertising a company’s phone number on the back of cars for complaints and compliments, and; - (c) communicating cost benefits of road safety to employees. No significant differences in employee perceptions were identified based on age, gender, employees’ self-reported crash involvement or employees’ self-reported traffic infringement history. Perceptions of safety climate were identified to be “moderate” but were not linked to self-reported crash or traffic infringement history. However, higher levels of safety climate were positively correlated with perceived effectiveness of some interventions. Conclusion Taken together, employees believed occupational road safety risks could best be managed by the employer by implementing a combination of engineering and human resource initiatives to enhance road safety. This paper will further outline the key findings in regards to practice as well as provide direction for future research.

Evaluation of the Queensland Minimum Passing Distance Road Rule

The two-year trial of the Queensland minimum passing distance (MPD) road rule began on 7 April 2014. The rule requires motor vehicles to provide cyclists a minimum lateral passing distance of one metre when overtaking cyclists in a speed zone of 60 km/h or less, and 1.5 metres when the speed limit is greater than 60 km/h. This document summarises the evaluation of the effectiveness of the new rule in terms of its: 1. practical implementation; 2. impact on road users’ attitudes and perceptions; and 3. road safety benefits. The Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety – Queensland (CARRS-Q) developed the evaluation framework (Haworth, Schramm, Kiata-Holland, Vallmuur, Watson & Debnath; 2014) for the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads (TMR) and was later commissioned to undertake the evaluation. The evaluation included the following components: • Review of correspondence received by TMR; • Interviews and focus groups with Queensland Police Service (QPS) officers; • Road user survey; • Observational study; and • Crash, injury and infringement data analysis.

A journey access tool to facilitate mobility-related access for people with disabilities in low and middle income countries

People with disabilities (PWD) experience difficulties in accessing the transport system (including both infrastructure and services) to meet their needs for health care, employment and other activities. Our research shows that lack of access to the journeys needed for these purposes is a more significant barrier in low and middle income countries than in high income countries, and results in inadequate health care, rehabilitation and access to education and employment. At the same time, the existing transport system in low and middle income countries presents much higher road crash risks than in high income countries. By combining the principles and methods of Road Safety Audit and disability access, and adapting these Western approaches to a low/middle income country context, we have worked with Handicap International Cambodia to develop a Journey Access Tool (JAT) for use by disabled peoples’ organisations (DPOs), people with a disability and other key stakeholders. A key element of the approach is that it involves the participation of PWD on the journeys that they need to take, and it identifies infrastructure and service improvements that should be prioritised in order to facilitate access to these journeys. The JAT has been piloted in Cambodia with a range of PWD. This presentation will outline the design of the JAT and the results of the pilot studies. The information gained thus far strongly suggests that the JAT is a valuable and cost-effective approach that can be used by DPOs and professionals to identify barriers to access and prioritise the steps needed to address them.

Psychoacoustic sampling as a reliable, non-invasive method to monitor orthopteran species diversity in tropical forests

We evaluated trained listener-based acoustic sampling as a reliable and non-invasive method for rapid assessment of ensiferan species diversity in tropical evergreen forests. This was done by evaluating the reliability of identification of species and numbers of calling individuals using psychoacoustic experiments in the laboratory and by comparing psychoacoustic sampling in the field with ambient noise recordings made at the same time. The reliability of correct species identification by the trained listener was 100% for 16 out of 20 species tested in the laboratory. The reliability of identifying the numbers of individuals correctly was 100% for 13 out of 20 species. The human listener performed slightly better than the instrument in detecting low frequency and broadband calls in the field, whereas the recorder detected high frequency calls with greater probability. To address the problem of pseudoreplication during spot sampling in the field, we monitored the movement of calling individuals using focal animal sampling. The average distance moved by calling individuals for 17 out of 20 species was less than 1.5 m in half an hour. We suggest that trained listener-based sampling is preferable for crickets and low frequency katydids, whereas broadband recorders are preferable for katydid species with high frequency calls for accurate estimation of ensiferan species richness and relative abundance in an area.

Eye movements and road hazard detection: Effects of blur and distractors

Purpose To examine the effects of optical blur, auditory distractors and age on eye movement patterns while performing a driving hazard perception test (HPT). Methods Twenty young (mean age 27.1 ± 4.6 years) and 20 older (73.3 ± 5.7 years) drivers with normal vision completed a HPT in a repeated-measures counterbalanced design while their eye movements were recorded. Testing was performed under two visual (best-corrected vision and with +2.00DS blur) and two distractor (with and without auditory distraction) conditions. Participants were required to respond to road hazards appearing in the HPT videos of real-world driving scenes and their hazard response times were recorded. Results Blur and distractors each significantly delayed hazard response time, by 0.42 and 0.76s respectively (p<0.05). A significant interaction between age and distractors indicated that older drivers were more affected by distractors than young drivers (response with distractors delayed by 0.96 and 0.60s respectively). There were no other two- or three-way interaction effect on response time. With blur, both groups fixated significantly longer on hazards before responding compared to best-corrected vision. In the presence of distractors, both groups exhibited delayed first fixation on the hazards and spent less time fixating on the hazards. There were also significant differences in eye movement characteristics between groups, where older drivers exhibited smaller saccades, delayed first fixation on hazards, and shorter fixation duration on hazards compared to the young drivers. Conclusions Collectively, the findings of delayed hazard response times and alterations in eye movement patterns with blur and distractors provide further evidence that visual impairment and distractors are independently detrimental to driving safety given that delayed hazard response times are linked to increased crash risk.

Predicting crashes using traffic offences. A meta-analysis that examines potential bias between self-report and archival data

Background Traffic offences have been considered an important predictor of crash involvement, and have often been used as a proxy safety variable for crashes. However the association between crashes and offences has never been meta-analysed and the population effect size never established. Research is yet to determine the extent to which this relationship may be spuriously inflated through systematic measurement error, with obvious implications for researchers endeavouring to accurately identify salient factors predictive of crashes. Methodology and Principal Findings Studies yielding a correlation between crashes and traffic offences were collated and a meta-analysis of 144 effects drawn from 99 road safety studies conducted. Potential impact of factors such as age, time period, crash and offence rates, crash severity and data type, sourced from either self-report surveys or archival records, were considered and discussed. After weighting for sample size, an average correlation of r = .18 was observed over the mean time period of 3.2 years. Evidence emerged suggesting the strength of this correlation is decreasing over time. Stronger correlations between crashes and offences were generally found in studies involving younger drivers. Consistent with common method variance effects, a within country analysis found stronger effect sizes in self-reported data even controlling for crash mean. Significance The effectiveness of traffic offences as a proxy for crashes may be limited. Inclusion of elements such as independently validated crash and offence histories or accurate measures of exposure to the road would facilitate a better understanding of the factors that influence crash involvement.

Modeling and Forecasting Implied Volatility: Implications for Trading, Pricing, and Risk Management

Modeling and forecasting of implied volatility (IV) is important to both practitioners and academics, especially in trading, pricing, hedging, and risk management activities, all of which require an accurate volatility. However, it has become challenging since the 1987 stock market crash, as implied volatilities (IVs) recovered from stock index options present two patterns: volatility smirk(skew) and volatility term-structure, if the two are examined at the same time, presents a rich implied volatility surface (IVS). This implies that the assumptions behind the Black-Scholes (1973) model do not hold empirically, as asset prices are mostly influenced by many underlying risk factors. This thesis, consists of four essays, is modeling and forecasting implied volatility in the presence of options markets’ empirical regularities. The first essay is modeling the dynamics IVS, it extends the Dumas, Fleming and Whaley (DFW) (1998) framework; for instance, using moneyness in the implied forward price and OTM put-call options on the FTSE100 index, a nonlinear optimization is used to estimate different models and thereby produce rich, smooth IVSs. Here, the constant-volatility model fails to explain the variations in the rich IVS. Next, it is found that three factors can explain about 69-88% of the variance in the IVS. Of this, on average, 56% is explained by the level factor, 15% by the term-structure factor, and the additional 7% by the jump-fear factor. The second essay proposes a quantile regression model for modeling contemporaneous asymmetric return-volatility relationship, which is the generalization of Hibbert et al. (2008) model. The results show strong negative asymmetric return-volatility relationship at various quantiles of IV distributions, it is monotonically increasing when moving from the median quantile to the uppermost quantile (i.e., 95%); therefore, OLS underestimates this relationship at upper quantiles. Additionally, the asymmetric relationship is more pronounced with the smirk (skew) adjusted volatility index measure in comparison to the old volatility index measure. Nonetheless, the volatility indices are ranked in terms of asymmetric volatility as follows: VIX, VSTOXX, VDAX, and VXN. The third essay examines the information content of the new-VDAX volatility index to forecast daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates and compares its VaR forecasts with the forecasts of the Filtered Historical Simulation and RiskMetrics. All daily VaR models are then backtested from 1992-2009 using unconditional, independence, conditional coverage, and quadratic-score tests. It is found that the VDAX subsumes almost all information required for the volatility of daily VaR forecasts for a portfolio of the DAX30 index; implied-VaR models outperform all other VaR models. The fourth essay models the risk factors driving the swaption IVs. It is found that three factors can explain 94-97% of the variation in each of the EUR, USD, and GBP swaption IVs. There are significant linkages across factors, and bi-directional causality is at work between the factors implied by EUR and USD swaption IVs. Furthermore, the factors implied by EUR and USD IVs respond to each others’ shocks; however, surprisingly, GBP does not affect them. Second, the string market model calibration results show it can efficiently reproduce (or forecast) the volatility surface for each of the swaptions markets.

Fading Customer Relationships

This dissertation is based on the assumption that fading customer relationships are important phenomena to understand in order for companies to prevent a future relationship termination, manage a desired relationship termination, or manage the situation where the relationship strength temporarily or permanently has weakened but where the customer still stays with the same service provider. It is assumed that fading could take different forms and develop through a range of different processes. The purpose of the thesis is therefore to define and describe fading, reveal different types of fading relationship processes, and discuss the dynamics of these processes. In services literature there is a lack of research focusing on the weakening of customer relationships. Fading therefore represents a new approach to understanding issues related to the ending of customer relationships. A fading relationship process could precede a relationship ending, but could also represent a temporal weakening of the relationship without leading to termination. It thus distinguishes the concept from other concepts within ending research which focus solely on relationships that have been terminated, taking a larger aspect of the relationship into account (as a relationship could build on constant changes). A pilot study created an understanding of difficulties related to understanding and detecting fading customer relationship, which led to a follow-up study incorporating qualitative interviews in relationship dyads characterised as fading with both private banking customers and their respective financial advisor. The focus remained on the understanding of the fading process resulting in a model for analysing different types of fading processes. Four types of fading processes were also revealed; the crash landing process, the altitude drop process, the fizzle out process and the try out process. The dissertation contributes to a broadened understanding of different types of fading processes within the research area of ending relationships emphasising the dynamic aspects of the phenomenon. Managerial implications include the management of different types of fading processes and also the understanding of the financial advisor’s role in influencing the development of these processes. Helena Åkerlund is associated with CERS, the Centre for Relationship Marketing and Service Management at Hanken, Swedish School of Economics and Business Administration, Helsinki

An improved representation of vehicle incompatibility in frontal NCAP tests using a modified rigid barrier

With the objective of better understanding the significance of New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) tests conducted by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), head-on collisions between two identical cars of different sizes and between cars and a pickup truck are studied in the present paper using LS-DYNA models. Available finite element models of a compact car (Dodge Neon), midsize car (Dodge Intrepid), and pickup truck (Chevrolet C1500) are first improved and validated by comparing theanalysis-based vehicle deceleration pulses against corresponding NCAP crash test histories reported by NHTSA. In confirmation of prevalent perception, simulation-bascd results indicate that an NCAP test against a rigid barrier is a good representation of a collision between two similar cars approaching each other at a speed of 56.3 kmph (35 mph) both in terms of peak deceleration and intrusions. However, analyses carried out for collisions between two incompatible vehicles, such as an Intrepid or Neon against a C1500, point to the inability of the NCAP tests in representing the substantially higher intrusions in the front upper regions experienced by the cars, although peak decelerations in cars arc comparable to those observed in NCAP tests. In an attempt to improve the capability of a front NCAP test to better represent real-world crashes between incompatible vehicles, i.e., ones with contrasting ride height and lower body stiffness, two modified rigid barriers are studied. One of these barriers, which is of stepped geometry with a curved front face, leads to significantly improved correlation of intrusions in the upper regions of cars with respect to those yielded in the simulation of collisions between incompatible vehicles, together with the yielding of similar vehicle peak decelerations obtained in NCAP tests.

Nonlinear mixture autoregressive model: economic applications

The aim of this dissertation is to model economic variables by a mixture autoregressive (MAR) model. The MAR model is a generalization of linear autoregressive (AR) model. The MAR -model consists of K linear autoregressive components. At any given point of time one of these autoregressive components is randomly selected to generate a new observation for the time series. The mixture probability can be constant over time or a direct function of a some observable variable. Many economic time series contain properties which cannot be described by linear and stationary time series models. A nonlinear autoregressive model such as MAR model can a plausible alternative in the case of these time series. In this dissertation the MAR model is used to model stock market bubbles and a relationship between inflation and the interest rate. In the case of the inflation rate we arrived at the MAR model where inflation process is less mean reverting in the case of high inflation than in the case of normal inflation. The interest rate move one-for-one with expected inflation. We use the data from the Livingston survey as a proxy for inflation expectations. We have found that survey inflation expectations are not perfectly rational. According to our results information stickiness play an important role in the expectation formation. We also found that survey participants have a tendency to underestimate inflation. A MAR model has also used to model stock market bubbles and crashes. This model has two regimes: the bubble regime and the error correction regime. In the error correction regime price depends on a fundamental factor, the price-dividend ratio, and in the bubble regime, price is independent of fundamentals. In this model a stock market crash is usually caused by a regime switch from a bubble regime to an error-correction regime. According to our empirical results bubbles are related to a low inflation. Our model also imply that bubbles have influences investment return distribution in both short and long run.