943 resultados para Crash Predictions


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Illegal pedestrian behaviour is common and is reported as a factor in many pedestrian crashes. Since walking is being promoted for its health and environmental benefits, minimisation of its associated risks is of interest. The risk associated with illegal road crossing is unclear, and better information would assist in setting a rationale for enforcement and priorities for public education. An observation survey of pedestrian behaviour was conducted at signalised intersections in the Brisbane CBD (Queensland, Australia) on typical workdays, using behavioural categories that were identifiable in police crash reports. The survey confirmed high levels of crossing against the lights, or close enough to the lights that they should legally have been used. Measures of exposure for crossing legally, against the lights, and close to the lights were generated by weighting the observation data. Relative risk ratios were calculated for these categories using crash data from the observation sites and adjacent midblocks. Crossing against the lights and crossing close to the lights both exhibited a crash risk per crossing event approximately eight times that of legal crossing at signalised intersections. The implications of these results for enforcement and education are discussed, along with the limitations of the study.

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Young drivers aged 17-24 are consistently overrepresented in motor vehicle crashes. Research has shown that a young driver’s crash risk increases when carrying similarly aged passengers, with fatal crash risk increasing two to three fold with two or more passengers. Recent growth in access to and use of the internet has led to a corresponding increase in the number of web based behaviour change interventions. An increasing body of literature describes the evaluation of web based programs targeting risk behaviours and health issues. Evaluations have shown promise for such strategies with evidence for positive changes in knowledge, attitudes and behaviour. The growing popularity of web based programs is due in part to their wide accessibility, ability for personalised tailoring of intervention messages, and self-direction and pacing of online content. Young people are also highly receptive to the internet and the interactive elements of online programs are particularly attractive. The current study was designed to assess the feasibility for a web based intervention to increase the use of personal and peer protective strategies among young adult passengers. An extensive review was conducted on the development and evaluation of web based programs. Year 12 students were also surveyed about their use of the internet in general and for health and road safety information. All students reported internet access at home or at school, and 74% had searched for road safety information. Additional findings have shown promise for the development of a web based passenger safety program for young adults. Design and methodological issues will be discussed.

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Street racing and associated (hooning) behaviours have attracted increasing concern in recent years. While New Zealand and all Australian jurisdictions have introduced “antihooning” legislation and allocated significant police resources to managing the problem, there is limited evidence of the road safety implications of hooning. However, international and Australian data suggests that drivers charged with a hooning offence tend to be young males who are accompanied by one or more peers, and hooning-related crashes tend to occur at night. In this regard, there is considerable evidence that drivers under the age of 25 are over-represented in crash statistics, and are particularly vulnerable soon after obtaining a Provisional licence, when driving at night, and when carrying peer-aged passengers. The similarity between the nature of hooning offenders, offences and crashes, and road safety risks for young drivers in general, suggests that hooning is an issue that may be viewed as part of the broader young driver problem. Many jurisdictions have recently implemented a range of evidence-based strategies to address young driver road safety, and this paper will present Queensland crash and offence data to highlight the potential benefit of Graduated Driver Licensing initiatives, such as night driving restrictions and peer-aged passenger restrictions, to related road safety issues, including hooning. An understanding of potential flow-on effects is important for evaluations of anti-hooning legislation and Graduated Driver Licensing programs, and may have implications for future law enforcement resource allocation and policy development.

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Cognitive-energetical theories of information processing were used to generate predictions regarding the relationship between workload and fatigue within and across consecutive days of work. Repeated measures were taken on board a naval vessel during a non-routine and a routine patrol. Data were analyzed using growth curve modeling. Fatigue demonstrated a non-monotonic relationship within days in both patrols – fatigue was high at midnight, started decreasing until noontime and then increased again. Fatigue increased across days towards the end of the non-routine patrol, but remained stable across days in the routine patrol. The relationship between workload and fatigue changed over consecutive days in the non-routine patrol. At the beginning of the patrol, low workload was associated with fatigue. At the end of the patrol, high workload was associated with fatigue. This relationship could not be tested in the routine patrol, however it demonstrated a non-monotonic relationship between workload and fatigue – low and high workloads were associated with the highest fatigue. These results suggest that the optimal level of workload can change over time and thus have implications for the management of fatigue.

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The continued growth in popularity of motorcycling is an area of concern within the road safety domain due to the vulnerability of motorcyclists sustaining injury in the event of a crash. Currently in Australia only motorcycle helmets are mandatory for motorcyclists or pillions to wear and there is no legislative standard for other protective apparel. This paper reports the results obtained from a series of motorcyclists’ apparel observational studies undertaken in the Brisbane and Canberra regions. The sites selected for the research were designed to enable the observation of both recreational and commuter riders. The results highlight both similarities and differences in the type of protective apparel worn by motorcyclists and pillions observed across the two regions. Encouragingly, across all the sites the majority of riders were wearing protective apparel on their upper body. However, a lower proportion of riders were observed wearing protective apparel on their lower body, particularly at the commuter sites in Brisbane. Similarly, the wearing of full face helmets was very high, except at the commuter sites in Brisbane. The generally lower use of protective apparel among commuter riders in Brisbane would appear to reflect both situational factors, such as climate, and the higher proportion of scooters observed at the sites. The implications of these results are discussed and recommendations are made for future research to identify factors that influence the wearing of protective motorcycle apparel.

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Research has highlighted the relationship between vehicle speed and increased crash risk and severity. Evidence suggests that police speed enforcement, in particular speed camera operations, can be an effective tool for reducing traffic crashes. A quantitative survey of Queensland drivers (n = 852) was conducted to investigate the impact of police speed enforcement methods on self-reported speeding behaviour. Results indicate that visible enforcement was associated with significantly greater self-reported compliance than covert operations irrespective of the mobility of the approach, and the effects on behaviour were longer lasting. The mobility of operations appeared to be moderated the visibility of the approach. Specifically, increased mobility was associated with increase reported compliant behaviour, but only for covert operations, and increased longevity of reported compliant behaviour, but only for overt operations. The perceived effectiveness of various speed enforcement approaches are also analysed across a range of driving scenarios. Results are discussed in light of the small effect sizes. Recommendations for policy and future research are presented.

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Summary of findings: QISU estimates that approximately 1,000 skateboard-associated injuries are seen at emergency departments each year in Queensland. 10-14 year old males are the most likely group to present to a QISU ED with a skateboard related injury. The peak time for skateboard injuries to occur is on the weekend and in the late afternoon. Only 19% of skateboard injuries occur at skate park facilities, with the remainder oc-curring in non-skate parks, on roads and footpaths. Risk factors associated with more severe injuries are, age less than 10 years and involvement in a motor vehicle crash The most common types of injuries are fractures and sprains of the upper limbs. Isolated head injuries represent approximately 5% of skateboarding injuries, but 60% of serious injuries requiring resuscitation. These injuries may be minimized or pre-vented with helmet use.

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OBJECTIVES: To quantify the driving difficulties of older adults using a detailed assessment of driving performance and to link this with self-reported retrospective and prospective crashes. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: On-road driving assessment. PARTICIPANTS: Two hundred sixty-seven community-living adults aged 70 to 88 randomly recruited through the electoral roll. MEASUREMENTS: Performance on a standardized measure of driving performance. RESULTS: Lane positioning, approach, and blind spot monitoring were the most common error types, and errors occurred most frequently in situations involving merging and maneuvering. Drivers reporting more retrospective or prospective crashes made significantly more driving errors. Driver instructor interventions during self-navigation (where the instructor had to brake or take control of the steering to avoid an accident) were significantly associated with higher retrospective and prospective crashes; every instructor intervention almost doubled prospective crash risk. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that on-road driving assessment provides useful information on older driver difficulties, with the self-directed component providing the most valuable information.

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Helvetica (connotes Swiss typeface) has been used the most widely from street signs to government campaign posters since 1957. Helvetica represents a great leap forward for modernity: clean, sans-serif, optimistic. However in history, there was a movement against Helvetica among American artists and designers since David Carson and Paula Scher indicted Helvetica as the cause of Vietnam war. Paradoxically, we celebrated its 50th birthday in 2007. Helvetica’s message it this: “you are going to get to your destination on time; your plan will not crash; your money is safe in our vault; we will not break the package; the paperwork has been filled in; everything is going to be OK” (Finlo Rohrer, Helvetica At 50, BBC News Magazine 9 May 2007). The artwork, Hell-vetica describes its characteristic of double agent for modernism and postmodernism in this contemporary era by combination of a stylised graphical form of a heart shape in red and a typographical manipulation - Hell-vetica.

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Older drivers represent the fastest growing segment of the road user population. Cognitive and physiological capabilities diminishes with ages. The design of future in-vehicle interfaces have to take into account older drivers' needs and capabilities. Older drivers have different capabilities which impact on their driving patterns and subsequently on road crash patterns. New in-vehicle technology could improve safety, comfort and maintain elderly people's mobility for longer. Existing research has focused on the ergonomic and Human Machine Interface (HMI) aspects of in-vehicle technology to assist the elderly. However there is a lack of comprehensive research on identifying the most relevant technology and associated functionalities that could improve older drivers' road safety. To identify future research priorities for older drivers, this paper presents: (i) a review of age related functional impairments, (ii) a brief description of some key characteristics of older driver crashes and (iii) a conceptualisation of the most relevant technology interventions based on traffic psychology theory and crash data.

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Until recently, the hot-rolled steel members have been recognized as the most popular and widely used steel group, but in recent times, the use of cold-formed high strength steel members has rapidly increased. However, the structural behavior of light gauge high strength cold-formed steel members characterized by various buckling modes is not yet fully understood. The current cold-formed steel sections such as C- and Z-sections are commonly used because of their simple forming procedures and easy connections, but they suffer from certain buckling modes. It is therefore important that these buckling modes are either delayed or eliminated to increase the ultimate capacity of these members. This research is therefore aimed at developing a new cold-formed steel beam with two torsionally rigid rectangular hollow flanges and a slender web formed using intermittent screw fastening to enhance the flexural capacity while maintaining a minimum fabrication cost. This thesis describes a detailed investigation into the structural behavior of this new Rectangular Hollow Flange Beam (RHFB), subjected to flexural action The first phase of this research included experimental investigations using thirty full scale lateral buckling tests and twenty two section moment capacity tests using specially designed test rigs to simulate the required loading and support conditions. A detailed description of the experimental methods, RHFB failure modes including local, lateral distortional and lateral torsional buckling modes, and moment capacity results is presented. A comparison of experimental results with the predictions from the current design rules and other design methods is also given. The second phase of this research involved a methodical and comprehensive investigation aimed at widening the scope of finite element analysis to investigate the buckling and ultimate failure behaviours of RHFBs subjected to flexural actions. Accurate finite element models simulating the physical conditions of both lateral buckling and section moment capacity tests were developed. Comparison of experimental and finite element analysis results showed that the buckling and ultimate failure behaviour of RHFBs can be simulated well using appropriate finite element models. Finite element models simulating ideal simply supported boundary conditions and a uniform moment loading were also developed in order to use in a detailed parametric study. The parametric study results were used to review the current design rules and to develop new design formulae for RHFBs subjected to local, lateral distortional and lateral torsional buckling effects. Finite element analysis results indicate that the discontinuity due to screw fastening has a noticeable influence only for members in the intermediate slenderness region. Investigations into different combinations of thicknesses in the flange and web indicate that increasing the flange thickness is more effective than web thickness in enhancing the flexural capacity of RHFBs. The current steel design standards, AS 4100 (1998) and AS/NZS 4600 (1996) are found sufficient to predict the section moment capacity of RHFBs. However, the results indicate that the AS/NZS 4600 is more accurate for slender sections whereas AS 4100 is more accurate for compact sections. The finite element analysis results further indicate that the current design rules given in AS/NZS 4600 is adequate in predicting the member moment capacity of RHFBs subject to lateral torsional buckling effects. However, they were inadequate in predicting the capacities of RHFBs subject to lateral distortional buckling effects. This thesis has therefore developed a new design formula to predict the lateral distortional buckling strength of RHFBs. Overall, this thesis has demonstrated that the innovative RHFB sections can perform well as economically and structurally efficient flexural members. Structural engineers and designers should make use of the new design rules and the validated existing design rules to design the most optimum RHFB sections depending on the type of applications. Intermittent screw fastening method has also been shown to be structurally adequate that also minimises the fabrication cost. Product manufacturers and builders should be able to make use of this in their applications.

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1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

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We examined differences in response latencies obtained during a validated video-based hazard perception driving test between three healthy, community-dwelling groups: 22 mid-aged (35-55 years), 34 young-old (65-74 years), and 23 old-old (75-84 years) current drivers, matched for gender, education level, and vocabulary. We found no significant difference in performance between mid-aged and young-old groups, but the old-old group was significantly slower than the other two groups. The differences between the old-old group and the other groups combined were independently mediated by useful field of view (UFOV), contrast sensitivity, and simple reaction time measures. Given that hazard perception latency has been linked with increased crash risk, these results are consistent with the idea that increased crash risk in older adults could be a function of poorer hazard perception, though this decline does not appear to manifest until age 75+ in healthy drivers.

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Traffic safety is a major concern world-wide. It is in both the sociological and economic interests of society that attempts should be made to identify the major and multiple contributory factors to those road crashes. This paper presents a text mining based method to better understand the contextual relationships inherent in road crashes. By examining and analyzing the crash report data in Queensland from year 2004 and year 2005, this paper identifies and reports the major and multiple contributory factors to those crashes. The outcome of this study will support road asset management in reducing road crashes.

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A method is presented for the development of a regional Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) and Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+) spectral greenness index, coherent with a six-dimensional index set, based on a single ETM+ spectral image of a reference landscape. The first three indices of the set are determined by a polar transformation of the first three principal components of the reference image and relate to scene brightness, percent foliage projective cover (FPC) and water related features. The remaining three principal components, of diminishing significance with respect to the reference image, complete the set. The reference landscape, a 2200 km2 area containing a mix of cattle pasture, native woodland and forest, is located near Injune in South East Queensland, Australia. The indices developed from the reference image were tested using TM spectral images from 19 regionally dispersed areas in Queensland, representative of dissimilar landscapes containing woody vegetation ranging from tall closed forest to low open woodland. Examples of image transformations and two-dimensional feature space plots are used to demonstrate image interpretations related to the first three indices. Coherent, sensible, interpretations of landscape features in images composed of the first three indices can be made in terms of brightness (red), foliage cover (green) and water (blue). A limited comparison is made with similar existing indices. The proposed greenness index was found to be very strongly related to FPC and insensitive to smoke. A novel Bayesian, bounded space, modelling method, was used to validate the greenness index as a good predictor of FPC. Airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) estimates of FPC along transects of the 19 sites provided the training and validation data. Other spectral indices from the set were found to be useful as model covariates that could improve FPC predictions. They act to adjust the greenness/FPC relationship to suit different spectral backgrounds. The inclusion of an external meteorological covariate showed that further improvements to regional-scale predictions of FPC could be gained over those based on spectral indices alone.