Nature's choice? a study of the displacement of incumbents in elections

Como choques econômicos afetam eleições em democracias? Usando dados eleitorais do Congresso dos Estados Unidos, eu testo se choques adversos podem afetar desigualmente partidos incumbentes e oponentes. Esse efeito é identificado, entre vários procedimentos, por uma regressão em descontinuidade. Eu considero possibilidades teóricas para esse efeito, quando cidadãos não conseguem observar perfeitamente se a falta de bens públicos é devido a um choque adverso, ou a consumo privado do político. Quando o choque é observável, não há efeito; enquanto se não fosse, haveria. As evidências empíricas são consistentes com a teoria.

How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (‘light-touch’) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — i.e., by investors who have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. Thus, ‘fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in (excessively) ‘friendly-regulated’ and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (light-touched) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — investors have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. ‘Fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in unregulated and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

Opening ILT blackbox: Exploring recognition-based leadership perceptions with conjoint analysis

Although research on Implicit Leadership Theories (ILT) has put great effort on determining what attributes define a leader prototype, little attention has been given to understanding the relative importance of each of these attributes in the categorization process by followers. Knowing that recognition-based leadership perceptions are the result of the match between followers’ ILTs and the perceived attributes in their actual leaders, understanding how specific prototypical leader attributes impact this impression formation process is particularly relevant. In this study, we draw upon socio-cognitive theories to explore how followers cognitively process the information about a leader’s attributes. By using Conjoint Analysis (CA), a technique that allows us to measure an individual’s trade-offs when making choices about multi-attributed options, we conducted a series of 4 studies with a total of 879 participants. Our results demonstrate that attributes’ importance for individuals’ leadership perceptions formation is rather heterogeneous, and that some attributes can enhance or spoil the importance of other prototypical attributes. Finally, by manipulating the leadership domain, we show that the weighting pattern of attributes is context dependent, as suggested by the connectionist approach to leadership categorization. Our findings also demonstrate that Conjoint Analysis can be a valuable tool for ILT research.

Influência da área de amostragem na determinação de perdas totais na colheita de soja

A metodologia, atualmente utilizada, para a determinação das perdas na colheita de soja, que consiste na utilização de armações de 2 m², vem fornecendo resultados com alto coeficiente de variação, o que dificulta detectar diferenças significativas entre os tratamentos, mesmo que esta diferença apresente valores numéricos muito altos. em função deste problema, objetivou-se avaliar o efeito das armações sobre a quantificação das perdas totais na colheita da cultura da soja, alterando-se a velocidade de deslocamento da colhedora e a abertura entre o cilindro e o côncavo. O delineamento experimental foi em blocos casualizados, em esquema fatorial 2 x 3 x 2, totalizando 12 tratamentos com quatro repetições. Os resultados evidenciaram que o coeficiente de variação para a armação de 2 m² foi de 88,26%, enquanto que para a armação de 3 m² este valor foi de 32,85%, e que com a armação de 2 m² foram detectadas perdas totais de 45 kg ha-1, enquanto que com a de 3 m² quantificou-se 73 kg ha-1, indicando que a área das armações interfere na quantificação das perdas totais na cultura da soja.

Seed anatomy and germination of Phoenix roebelenii O'Brien (Arecaceae)

O objetivo desse trabalho foi estudar a morfologia, anatomia e o processo germinativo de sementes de Phoenix roebelenii. Para o levantamento dos dados biométricos foram utilizadas 100 sementes de frutos recém-colhidos, deixados secar ao ar por um dia. Para a germinação, quatro repetições de 50 sementes tratadas com Vitavax-Thiran foram semeadas em bandejas de plástico, contendo Sphagnum sp. como substrato e mantidas sob condições ambientais de laboratório. Detalhes da morfologia da semente foram documentados com o uso de microscopia eletrônica de varredura e esquematizados com auxílio de câmara clara, acoplada ao estereomicroscópio. Foram confeccionadas lâminas permanentes com cortes do embrião, para o estudo de sua anatomia. As dimensões médias das sementes foram: 10,32mm comprimento, 5,21mm largura e 3,91mm espessura. O peso de 1000 sementes foi de 151,1g e 1kg continha 6600 unidades. O início da germinação variou entre 27 e 58 dias. As sementes são albuminosas, com endosperma duro e o embrião é pouco diferenciado, lateral e periférico. A germinação inicia-se pela abertura de um opérculo, através do qual é emitido o pecíolo cotiledonar com o eixo embrionário na extremidade. O pecíolo funciona, internamente, como um haustório, digerindo gradativamente o endosperma. Na sua parte posterior, desenvolve-se a plúmula, que emerge através de uma fenda. Nota-se o aparecimento de raízes secundárias na porção anterior da raiz primária.

Desistência ao tratamento de usuários de crack no centro de atenção pssicosocial em Campina Grande/PB

This study aimed to analyze the phenomenon of abdication of monitoring/treatment of crack users in a CAPS AD in Campina Grande-PB. That s an exploratory , description approach ,whose theoretical focus was historical-dialect of public politics on alcohol and drugs. The information collected was realized by using the technique of semi-structured interviews, combined with the crack users registered in CAPS AD in Campina Grande between 2007 and 2011.The material collected was subjected to thematic analysis method, obtaining the extraction of the following categories and subcategories of analysis: CATEGORY 1: Factors of abdication of monitoring/treatment in CAPS AD in Campina Grande PB with subcategory 1.1. Abdication on their own , 1.2. To take work/employment, 1.3 . Search for more intensive treatment , 1.4. Due to relapse; CATEGORY 2 : Treatment/monitoring in CAPS AD to the subcategory, 2.1. The dependence of crack and family support as reasons that led to frequent CAPS AD. CATEGORY 3: Living with crack addiction without treatment/monitoring in CAPS AD with the subcategory, 3.1. Religiosity as a therapeutic tool .The results showed a distance between priority for community treatment and the reality where there is lack of information about this kind of treatment and the admission as a solution. The discourse about the abdication of treatment of crack users make reference to the importance of family support, to the influence for the phenomenon of relapse and the affection to religious conceptions. Although the subjects recognize the qualifications of CAPS AD treatment, they try by themselves or by family influence, another ways of hospitalization. This leads us to conclude that it is necessary reflection and assessment of the work of CAPS AD. Counting on the social changes and the need of answers that the phenomenon requires

Chemical and microbiological changes and aerobic stability of marandu grass silages after silo opening

Esta pesquisa foi realizada com os objetivos de caracterizar a microbiologia e avaliar a estabilidade aeróbia de silagens de capim-marandu contendo polpa cítrica peletizada (PCP). A forragem colhida foi submetida aos seguintes tratamentos: silagem de capim-marandu; silagem de capim-marandu + 5% PCP e silagem do capim-marandu + 10% de PCP com base na matéria natural. As alterações químicas e microbiológicas foram feitas aos 0, 2, 4 e 6 dias após a abertura dos silos (tambores de metal com 80 cm de altura e 50 cm de diâmetro). Na avaliação da estabilidade aeróbia por meio da alteração da temperatura, 3 kg de silagem foram colocados em caixas de isopor, que foram armazenadas em câmara climática. Nos dois ensaios realizados, utilizou-se delineamento inteiramente ao acaso com cinco repetições, em esquema de parcelas subdivididas, de modo que os níveis de PCP na silagem corresponderam às parcelas e o tempo, às subparcelas. As silagens sem polpa apresentaram desenvolvimento de bacilos e enterobactérias e aumento do pH no decorrer do desabastecimento dos silos. A presença de leveduras foi detectada nas silagens contendo o aditivo e aumentou do primeiro ao sexto dia de aeração. A digestibilidade in vitro da matéria seca (DIVMS) reduziu com o aumento dos tempos de aeração. A temperatura nas silagens com 10% de PCP aumentou durante a aerobiose. Com a abertura dos silos, as silagens apresentaram-se instáveis, seja pelo desenvolvimento de bactérias seja pelo desenvolvimento de leveduras, o que reduziu seu valor nutritivo.

Um método para determinação da profundidade combinando visão estéreo e autocalibração para aplicação em robótica móvel

This work proposes a method to determine the depth of objects in a scene using a combination between stereo vision and self-calibration techniques. Determining the rel- ative distance between visualized objects and a robot, with a stereo head, it is possible to navigate in unknown environments. Stereo vision techniques supply a depth measure by the combination of two or more images from the same scene. To achieve a depth estimates of the in scene objects a reconstruction of this scene geometry is necessary. For such reconstruction the relationship between the three-dimensional world coordi- nates and the two-dimensional images coordinates is necessary. Through the achievement of the cameras intrinsic parameters it is possible to make this coordinates systems relationship. These parameters can be gotten through geometric camera calibration, which, generally is made by a correlation between image characteristics of a calibration pattern with know dimensions. The cameras self-calibration allows the achievement of their intrinsic parameters without using a known calibration pattern, being possible their calculation and alteration during the displacement of the robot in an unknown environment. In this work a self-calibration method based in the three-dimensional polar coordinates to represent image features is presented. This representation is determined by the relationship between images features and horizontal and vertical opening cameras angles. Using the polar coordinates it is possible to geometrically reconstruct the scene. Through the proposed techniques combination it is possible to calculate a scene objects depth estimate, allowing the robot navigation in an unknown environment

Deriving the magnitude of niobium off-center displacement in ferroelectric niobates from infrared spectroscopy

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)