Selection on floral traits through male fertility in a natural plant population

Most studies on selection in plants estimate female fitness components and neglect male mating success, although the latter might also be fundamental to understand adaptive evolution. Information from molecular genetic markers can be used to assess determinants of male mating success through parentage analyses. We estimated paternal selection gradients on floral traits in a large natural population of the herb Mimulus guttatus using a paternity probability model and maximum likelihood methods. This analysis revealed more significant selection gradients than a previous analysis based on regression of estimated male fertilities on floral traits. There were differences between results of univariate and multivariate analyses most likely due to the underlying covariance structure of the traits. Multivariate analysis, which corrects for the covariance structure of the traits, indicated that male mating success declined with distance from and depended on the direction to the mother plants. Moreover, there was directional selection for plants with fewer open flowers which have smaller corollas, a smaller anther-stigma separation, more red dots on the corolla and a larger fluctuating asymmetry therein. For most of these traits, however, there was also stabilizing selection indicating that there are intermediate optima for these traits. The large number of significant selection gradients in this study shows that even in relatively large natural populations where not all males can be sampled, it is possible to detect significant paternal selection gradients, and that such studies can give us valuable information required to better understand adaptive plant evolution.

Near-infrared digital photography to estimate snow correlation length for microwave emission modeling

The study is based on experimental work conducted in alpine snow. We made microwave radiometric and near-infrared reflectance measurements of snow slabs under different experimental conditions. We used an empirical relation to link near-infrared reflectance of snow to the specific surface area (SSA), and converted the SSA into the correlation length. From the measurements of snow radiances at 21 and 35 GHz , we derived the microwave scattering coefficient by inverting two coupled radiative transfer models (the sandwich and six-flux model). The correlation lengths found are in the same range as those determined in the literature using cold laboratory work. The technique shows great potential in the determination of the snow correlation length under field conditions.

Toxoplasma gondii Infection in Kyrgyzstan: Seroprevalence, Risk Factor Analysis, and Estimate of Congenital and AIDS-Related Toxoplasmosis

Background HIV-prevalence, as well as incidence of zoonotic parasitic diseases like cystic echinococcosis, has increased in the Kyrgyz Republic due to fundamental socio-economic changes after the breakdown of the Soviet Union. The possible impact on morbidity and mortality caused by Toxoplasma gondii infection in congenital toxoplasmosis or as an opportunistic infection in the emerging AIDS pandemic has not been reported from Kyrgyzstan. Methodology/Principal Findings We screened 1,061 rural and 899 urban people to determine the seroprevalence of T. gondii infection in 2 representative but epidemiologically distinct populations in Kyrgyzstan. The rural population was from a typical agricultural district where sheep husbandry is a major occupation. The urban population was selected in collaboration with several diagnostic laboratories in Bishkek, the largest city in Kyrgyzstan. We designed a questionnaire that was used on all rural subjects so a risk-factor analysis could be undertaken. The samples from the urban population were anonymous and only data with regard to age and gender was available. Estimates of putative cases of congenital and AIDS-related toxoplasmosis in the whole country were made from the results of the serology. Specific antibodies (IgG) against Triton X-100 extracted antigens of T. gondii tachyzoites from in vitro cultures were determined by ELISA. Overall seroprevalence of infection with T. gondii in people living in rural vs. urban areas was 6.2% (95%CI: 4.8–7.8) (adjusted seroprevalence based on census figures 5.1%, 95% CI 3.9–6.5), and 19.0% (95%CI: 16.5–21.7) (adjusted 16.4%, 95% CI 14.1–19.3), respectively, without significant gender-specific differences. The seroprevalence increased with age. Independently low social status increased the risk of Toxoplasma seropositivity while increasing numbers of sheep owned decreased the risk of seropositivity. Water supply, consumption of unpasteurized milk products or undercooked meat, as well as cat ownership, had no significant influence on the risk for seropositivity. Conclusions We present a first seroprevalence analysis for human T. gondii infection in the Kyrgyz Republic. Based on these data we estimate that 173 (95% CI 136–216) Kyrgyz children will be born annually to mothers who seroconverted to toxoplasmosis during pregnancy. In addition, between 350 and 1,000 HIV-infected persons are currently estimated to be seropositive for toxoplasmosis. Taken together, this suggests a substantial impact of congenital and AIDS-related symptomatic toxoplasmosis on morbidity and mortality in Kyrgyzstan.

Relaxed trait covariance in interspecific cichlid hybrids predicts morphological diversity in adaptive radiations

The process of adaptive radiation involves multiple events of speciation in short succession, associated with ecological diversification. Understanding this process requires identifying the origins of heritable phenotypic variation that allows adaptive radiation to progress. Hybridization is one source of genetic and morphological variation that may spur adaptive radiation. We experimentally explored the potential role of hybridization in facilitating the onset of adaptive radiation. We generated first- and second-generation hybrids of four species of African cichlid fish, extant relatives of the putative ancestors of the adaptive radiations of Lakes Victoria and Malawi. We com- pared patterns in hybrid morphological variation with the variation in the lake radiations. We show that significant fractions of the interspecific mor- phological variation and the major trajectories in morphospace that charac- terize whole radiations can be generated in second-generation hybrids. Furthermore, we show that covariation between traits is relaxed in second- generation hybrids, which may facilitate adaptive diversification. These results support the idea that hybridization can provide the heritable pheno- typic diversity necessary to initiate adaptive radiation.

An estimate of heavy quark momentum diffusion coefficient in gluon plasma

We calculate the momentum diffusion coefficient for heavy quarks in SU(3) gluon plasma at temperatures 1-2 times the deconfinement temperature. The momentum diffusion coefficient is extracted from a Monte Carlo calculation of the correlation function of color electric fields, in the leading order of expansion in heavy quark mass. Systematics of the calculation are examined, and compared with perturbtion theory and other estimates.

Evaluating statistical methods used to estimate the number of postsynaptic receptors.

Calcium levels in spines play a significant role in determining the sign and magnitude of synaptic plasticity. The magnitude of calcium influx into spines is highly dependent on influx through N-methyl D-aspartate (NMDA) receptors, and therefore depends on the number of postsynaptic NMDA receptors in each spine. We have calculated previously how the number of postsynaptic NMDA receptors determines the mean and variance of calcium transients in the postsynaptic density, and how this alters the shape of plasticity curves. However, the number of postsynaptic NMDA receptors in the postsynaptic density is not well known. Anatomical methods for estimating the number of NMDA receptors produce estimates that are very different than those produced by physiological techniques. The physiological techniques are based on the statistics of synaptic transmission and it is difficult to experimentally estimate their precision. In this paper we use stochastic simulations in order to test the validity of a physiological estimation technique based on failure analysis. We find that the method is likely to underestimate the number of postsynaptic NMDA receptors, explain the source of the error, and re-derive a more precise estimation technique. We also show that the original failure analysis as well as our improved formulas are not robust to small estimation errors in key parameters.

Models of DNA sequence evolution

Models of DNA sequence evolution and methods for estimating evolutionary distances are needed for studying the rate and pattern of molecular evolution and for inferring the evolutionary relationships of organisms or genes. In this dissertation, several new models and methods are developed.^ The rate variation among nucleotide sites: To obtain unbiased estimates of evolutionary distances, the rate heterogeneity among nucleotide sites of a gene should be considered. Commonly, it is assumed that the substitution rate varies among sites according to a gamma distribution (gamma model) or, more generally, an invariant+gamma model which includes some invariable sites. A maximum likelihood (ML) approach was developed for estimating the shape parameter of the gamma distribution $(\alpha)$ and/or the proportion of invariable sites $(\theta).$ Computer simulation showed that (1) under the gamma model, $\alpha$ can be well estimated from 3 or 4 sequences if the sequence length is long; and (2) the distance estimate is unbiased and robust against violations of the assumptions of the invariant+gamma model.^ However, this ML method requires a huge amount of computational time and is useful only for less than 6 sequences. Therefore, I developed a fast method for estimating $\alpha,$ which is easy to implement and requires no knowledge of tree. A computer program was developed for estimating $\alpha$ and evolutionary distances, which can handle the number of sequences as large as 30.^ Evolutionary distances under the stationary, time-reversible (SR) model: The SR model is a general model of nucleotide substitution, which assumes (i) stationary nucleotide frequencies and (ii) time-reversibility. It can be extended to SRV model which allows rate variation among sites. I developed a method for estimating the distance under the SR or SRV model, as well as the variance-covariance matrix of distances. Computer simulation showed that the SR method is better than a simpler method when the sequence length $L>1,000$ bp and is robust against deviations from time-reversibility. As expected, when the rate varies among sites, the SRV method is much better than the SR method.^ The evolutionary distances under nonstationary nucleotide frequencies: The statistical properties of the paralinear and LogDet distances under nonstationary nucleotide frequencies were studied. First, I developed formulas for correcting the estimation biases of the paralinear and LogDet distances. The performances of these formulas and the formulas for sampling variances were examined by computer simulation. Second, I developed a method for estimating the variance-covariance matrix of the paralinear distance, so that statistical tests of phylogenies can be conducted when the nucleotide frequencies are nonstationary. Third, a new method for testing the molecular clock hypothesis was developed in the nonstationary case. ^

Self-Reported Psychotic-Like Experiences Are a Poor Estimate of Clinician-Rated Attenuated and Frank Delusions and Hallucinations

Background: One reason for the decision to delay the introduction of an Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome in the main text of the fifth edition of the American Psychiatric Association's Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders was the concern that attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS) might in fact be common features in adolescents and young adults from the general population of no psychopathological significance in themselves. This concern was based on reports of high prevalence rates of psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) in the general population and the assumption that PLEs are a good estimate of APS. Although the criterion validity of self-reported PLEs had already been studied with respect to clinician-rated psychotic symptoms and found insufficient, it had been argued that PLEs might in fact be more comparable with mild, subclinical expressions of psychotic symptoms and, therefore, with APS. The present paper is the first to specifically study this assumption. Sampling and Methods: The sample consisted of 123 persons seeking help at a service for the early detection of psychosis, of whom 54 had an at-risk mental state or psychosis, 55 had a nonpsychotic mental disorder and 14 had no full-blown mental disorder. PLEs were assessed with the Peters Delusion Inventory and the revised Launay-Slade Hallucination Scale, and psychotic symptoms and APS were assessed with the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes. Results: At a level of agreement between the presence of any PLE (in 98.4% of patients) and any APS (in 40.7%) just exceeding chance (κ = 0.022), the criterion validity of PLEs for APS was insufficient. Even if additional qualifiers (high agreement or distress, preoccupation and conviction) were considered, PLEs (in 52.8%) still tended to significantly overestimate APS, and agreement was only fair (κ = 0.340). Furthermore, the group effect on PLE prevalence was, at most, moderate (Cramer's V ≤ 0.382). Conclusions: The prevalence of APS cannot be deduced from studies of PLEs. Thus, the high population prevalence rate of PLEs does not allow the conclusion that APS are common features of no pathological significance and would lack clinical validity as an Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 5th edition. Rather, the population prevalence rate of APS has to be assumed to be largely unknown at present but is likely lower than indicated by epidemiological studies of PLEs. Therefore, dedicated studies are warranted, in which APS are assessed in a way that equates to their clinical evaluation.

Multicentre validation of the Geneva Risk Score for hospitalised medical patients at risk of venous thromboembolism. Explicit ASsessment of Thromboembolic RIsk and Prophylaxis for Medical PATients in SwitzErland (ESTIMATE).

There is a need to validate risk assessment tools for hospitalised medical patients at risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). We investigated whether a predefined cut-off of the Geneva Risk Score, as compared to the Padua Prediction Score, accurately distinguishes low-risk from high-risk patients regardless of the use of thromboprophylaxis. In the multicentre, prospective Explicit ASsessment of Thromboembolic RIsk and Prophylaxis for Medical PATients in SwitzErland (ESTIMATE) cohort study, 1,478 hospitalised medical patients were enrolled of whom 637 (43%) did not receive thromboprophylaxis. The primary endpoint was symptomatic VTE or VTE-related death at 90 days. The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01277536. According to the Geneva Risk Score, the cumulative rate of the primary endpoint was 3.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.2-4.6%) in 962 high-risk vs 0.6% (95% CI 0.2-1.9%) in 516 low-risk patients (p=0.002); among patients without prophylaxis, this rate was 3.5% vs 0.8% (p=0.029), respectively. In comparison, the Padua Prediction Score yielded a cumulative rate of the primary endpoint of 3.5% (95% CI 2.3-5.3%) in 714 high-risk vs 1.1% (95% CI 0.6-2.3%) in 764 low-risk patients (p=0.002); among patients without prophylaxis, this rate was 3.2% vs 1.5% (p=0.130), respectively. Negative likelihood ratio was 0.28 (95% CI 0.10-0.83) for the Geneva Risk Score and 0.51 (95% CI 0.28-0.93) for the Padua Prediction Score. In conclusion, among hospitalised medical patients, the Geneva Risk Score predicted VTE and VTE-related mortality and compared favourably with the Padua Prediction Score, particularly for its accuracy to identify low-risk patients who do not require thromboprophylaxis.

The potential of stomata analysis in conifers to estimate presence of conifer trees: examples from the Alps

To estimate whether or not a plant taxon found in the fossil record was locally present may be difficult if only pollen is analyzed. Plant macrofossils, in contrast, provide a clear indication of a taxon's local presence, although in some lake sediments or peats, macrofossils may be rare or degraded. For conifers, the stomata found on pollen slides are derived from needles and thus provide a valuable proxy for local presence and they can be identified to genus level. From previously published studies, a transect across the Alps based on 13 sites is presented. For basal samples in sandy silt above the till with high pollen values of Pinus, for example, we may distinguish pine pollen from distant sources (samples with no stomata), from reworked pollen (samples with stomata present). The first apparent local presence of most conifer genera based on stomata often but not always occurs together with the phase of rapid pollen increase (rational limit). An exception is Larix, with its annual deposition of needles and heavy poorly dispersed pollen, for it often shows the first stomata earlier, at the empirical pollen limit. The decline and potential local extinction of a conifer can sometimes be shown in the stomata record. The decline may have been caused by climatic change, competition, or human impact. In situations where conifers form the timberline, the stomata record may indicate timberline fluctuations. In the discussion of immigration or migration of taxa we advocate the use of the cautious term ``apparent local presence'' to include some uncertainties. Absence of a taxon is impossible to prove.