Using Discrete Event Simulation (DES) to manage theatre operations in healthcare: An audit-based case study

This paper discusses the application of Discrete Event Simulation (DES) in modelling the complex relationship between patient types, case-mix and operating theatre allocation in a large National Health Service (NHS) Trust in London. The simulation model that was constructed described the main features of nine theatres, focusing on operational processes and patient throughput times. The model was used to test three scenarios of case-mix and to demonstrate the potential of using simulation modelling as a cost effective method for understanding the issues of healthcare operations management and the role of simulation techniques in problem solving. The results indicated that removing all day cases will reduce patient throughput by 23.3% and the utilization of the orthopaedic theatre in particular by 6.5%. This represents a case example of how DES can be used by healthcare managers to inform decision making. © 2008 IEEE.

Induced breeding of Indian carps using Des Gly^10 [D-Ala^6] LHRH ethylamide

Details are given of a study conducted in order to determine the efficacy of Des Gly^10 [D-Ala^6] LHRH ethylamide in the induction of spawning in Cirrhinus mrigala and Labeo fimbriatus . Findings shows this LHRH analogue to be a promising substitute for the pituitary gland extract which is currently used. Further studies are required to standardize the dose and method of administration in the various cultivable species in India.

Word boundary modelling and full covariance gaussians for Arabic Speech-to-Text systems

This paper describes recent improvements to the Cambridge Arabic Large Vocabulary Continuous Speech Recognition (LVCSR) Speech-to-Text (STT) system. It is shown that wordboundary context markers provide a powerful method to enhance graphemic systems by implicit phonetic information, improving the modelling capability of graphemic systems. In addition, a robust technique for full covariance Gaussian modelling in the Minimum Phone Error (MPE) training framework is introduced. This reduces the full covariance training to a diagonal covariance training problem, thereby solving related robustness problems. The full system results show that the combined use of these and other techniques within a multi-branch combination framework reduces the Word Error Rate (WER) of the complete system by up to 5.9% relative. Copyright © 2011 ISCA.

Mixed nonlinear LES for DES suitable flows

It is shown that a new mixed nonlinear/eddy viscosity LES model reproduces profiles better than a number of competing nonlinear and mixed models for plane channel flow. The objective is an LES method that produces a fully resolved turbulent boundary layer and could be applied to a variety of aerospace problems that are currently studied with RANS, RANS-LES, or DES methods that lack a true turbulent boundary layer. There are two components to the new model. One an eddy viscosity based upon the advected subgrid scale energy and a relatively small coefficient. Second, filtered nonlinear terms based upon the Leray regularization. Coefficients for the eddy viscosity and nonlinear terms come from LES tests in decaying, isotropic turbulence. Using these coefficients, the velocity profile matches measurements data at Reτ ≈ 1000 exactly. Profiles of the components of kinetic energy have the same shape as in the experiment, but the magnitudes differ by about 25%. None of the competing LES gets the shape correct. This method does not require extra operations at the transition between the boundary layer and the interior flow.

High-order DES and zonal LES of a labyrinth seal

Hybrid numerical large eddy simulation (NLES) and detached eddy simulation (DES) methods are assessed on a labyrinth seal geometry. A high sixth order discretization scheme is used and is validated using a test case of a two dimensional vortex. The hybrid approach adopts a new blending function and along with DES is initially validated using a simple cavity flow. The NLES method is also validated outside of RANS zones. It is found that there is very little resolved turbulence in the cavity for the DES simulation. For the labyrinth seal calculations the DES approach is problematic giving virtually no resolved turbulence content. It is seen that over the tooth tips the extent of the LES region is small and is likely to be a strong contributor to excessive flow damping in these regions. On the other hand the zonal Hamilton-Jacobi approach did not suffer from this trait. In both cases the meshes used are considered to be hybrid RANS-LES adequate. Fortunately (or perhaps unfortunately) the DES profiles are in agreement with the time mean experimental measurements. It is concluded that for an inexperienced CFD practitioner this could have wider implications particularly if transient results such as unsteady loading are desired. Copyright © 2012 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc.

Dynamic Covariance Models for Multivariate Financial Time Series

The accurate prediction of time-changing covariances is an important problem in the modeling of multivariate financial data. However, some of the most popular models suffer from a) overfitting problems and multiple local optima, b) failure to capture shifts in market conditions and c) large computational costs. To address these problems we introduce a novel dynamic model for time-changing covariances. Over-fitting and local optima are avoided by following a Bayesian approach instead of computing point estimates. Changes in market conditions are captured by assuming a diffusion process in parameter values, and finally computationally efficient and scalable inference is performed using particle filters. Experiments with financial data show excellent performance of the proposed method with respect to current standard models.

Differential equation based length scales to improve DES and RANS simulations

Surprisingly expensive to compute wall distances are still used in a range of key turbulence and peripheral physics models. Potentially economical, accuracy improving differential equation based distance algorithms are considered. These involve elliptic Poisson and hyperbolic natured Eikonal equation approaches. Numerical issues relating to non-orthogonal curvilinear grid solution of the latter are addressed. Eikonal extension to a Hamilton-Jacobi (HJ) equation is discussed. Use of this extension to improve turbulence model accuracy and, along with the Eikonal, enhance Detached Eddy Simulation (DES) techniques is considered. Application of the distance approaches is studied for various geometries. These include a plane channel flow with a wire at the centre, a wing-flap system, a jet with co-flow and a supersonic double-delta configuration. Although less accurate than the Eikonal, Poisson method based flow solutions are extremely close to those using a search procedure. For a moving grid case the Poisson method is found especially efficient. Results show the Eikonal equation can be solved on highly stretched, non-orthogonal, curvilinear grids. A key accuracy aspect is that metrics must be upwinded in the propagating front direction. The HJ equation is found to have qualitative turbulence model improving properties. © 2003 by P. G. Tucker.