Using graphical probability analysis (Bayes Nets) to evaluate a conditional DNA inclusion

This paper discusses the analysis of cases in which the inclusion or exclusion of a particular suspect, as a possible contributor to a DNA mixture, depends on the value of a variable (the number of contributors) that cannot be determined with certainty. It offers alternative ways to deal with such cases, including sensitivity analysis and object-oriented Bayesian networks, that separate uncertainty about the inclusion of the suspect from uncertainty about other variables. The paper presents a case study in which the value of DNA evidence varies radically depending on the number of contributors to a DNA mixture: if there are two contributors, the suspect is excluded; if there are three or more, the suspect is included; but the number of contributors cannot be determined with certainty. It shows how an object-oriented Bayesian network can accommodate and integrate varying perspectives on the unknown variable and how it can reduce the potential for bias by directing attention to relevant considerations and distinguishing different sources of uncertainty. It also discusses the challenge of presenting such evidence to lay audiences.

Parole, personnage et sujet dans les récits littéraires de Benjamin Constant

Même si Alison Fairlie, Tzvetan Todorov, Han Verhoeff et Simone Balayé ont reconnu l'importance de la parole dans les récits littéraires de Benjamin Constant (Amélie et Germaine, Cécile, Ma vie et Adolphe), dans leurs commentaires ces critiques ont surtout mis en évidence les échecs et les malentendus inhérents à toute communication verbale. Au-delà de ces constatations, il restait à montrer que les récits constantiens donnent à voir et à comprendre l'intérêt que cet écrivain nourrissait pour la parole, tout particulièrement pour la parole privée -celle qu'il a choisi de mettre en scène dans ces quatre oeuvres, qui acquièrent, grâce à cette spécificité, une manière d'unité. Cette parole intime, aux antipodes de la parole publique, s'offre comme un champ d'investigation illimité tant le locuteur est alors impliqué dans sa pratique verbale. Les introspections des narrateurs-personnages constantiens font naître la peinture d'un sujet moderne, fragilisé dans sa vie personnelle et peu engagé dans la vie sociale, mais elles offrent surtout un vaste panorama des situations d'interlocution et présentent en creux les nombreuses ressources de la parole. Ces récits, qui accordent une attention tout à fait signifiante à l'écriture de la parole, mais échappent parfois à toute classification générique, parviennent à mimer les incertitudes de leur narrateur-personnage tout en révélant que c'est par la parole, originale et singulière, que le sujet s'individualise expérience rendue souvent difficile à cause de la langue conventionnelle dont usent ceux que l'on rencontre dans les lieux de sociabilité, en ce XIXe siècle naissant.

PCAF regulates the stability of the transcriptional regulator and cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor p27Kip1

P27(Kip1) (p27) is a member of the Cip/Kip family of cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitors. Recently, a new function of p27 as transcriptional regulator has been reported. It has been shown that p27 regulates the expression of target genes mostly involved in splicing, cell cycle, respiration and translation. We report here that p27 directly binds to the transcriptional coactivator PCAF by a region including amino acids 91-120. PCAF associates with p27 through its catalytic domain and acetylates p27 at lysine 100. Our data showed that overexpression of PCAF induces the degradation of p27 whereas in contrast, the knockdown of PCAF stabilizes the protein. A p27 mutant in which K100 was substituted by arginine (p27-K100R) cannot be acetylated by PCAF and has a half-life much higher than that of p27WT. Moreover, p27-K100R remains stable along cell-cycle progression. Ubiquitylation assays and the use of proteasome inhibitors indicate that PCAF induces p27 degradation via proteasome. We also observed that knockdown of skp2 did not affect the PCAF induced degradation of p27. In conclusion, our data suggest that the p27 acetylation by PCAF regulates its stability.

Conditional BDNF release under pathological conditions improves Huntington's disease pathology by delaying neuronal dysfunction

Background Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) is the main candidate for neuroprotective therapy for Huntington's disease (HD), but its conditional administration is one of its most challenging problems. Results Here we used transgenic mice that over-express BDNF under the control of the Glial Fibrillary Acidic Protein (GFAP) promoter (pGFAP-BDNF mice) to test whether up-regulation and release of BDNF, dependent on astrogliosis, could be protective in HD. Thus, we cross-mated pGFAP-BDNF mice with R6/2 mice to generate a double-mutant mouse with mutant huntingtin protein and with a conditional over-expression of BDNF, only under pathological conditions. In these R6/2:pGFAP-BDNF animals, the decrease in striatal BDNF levels induced by mutant huntingtin was prevented in comparison to R6/2 animals at 12 weeks of age. The recovery of the neurotrophin levels in R6/2:pGFAP-BDNF mice correlated with an improvement in several motor coordination tasks and with a significant delay in anxiety and clasping alterations. Therefore, we next examined a possible improvement in cortico-striatal connectivity in R62:pGFAP-BDNF mice. Interestingly, we found that the over-expression of BDNF prevented the decrease of cortico-striatal presynaptic (VGLUT1) and postsynaptic (PSD-95) markers in the R6/2:pGFAP-BDNF striatum. Electrophysiological studies also showed that basal synaptic transmission and synaptic fatigue both improved in R6/2:pGAP-BDNF mice. Conclusions These results indicate that the conditional administration of BDNF under the GFAP promoter could become a therapeutic strategy for HD due to its positive effects on synaptic plasticity.

Spatial variability of aggregate stability in latosols under sugarcane

The spatial variability of soils under a same management system is differentiated, as expressed in the properties. The spatial variability of aggregate stability of a eutrophic Red Latosol (ERL) and a dystrophic Red Latosol (DRL) under sugarcane was characterized. Samples were collected in a regular 10 m grid, in the layers 0.0-0.2 and 0.2-0.4 m, with 100 points per area, and the following properties were determined: geometric mean diameter (GMD) of aggregates, mean weight diameter (MWD) of aggregates, percent of aggregates in the > 2.0 mm class and organic matter (OM) content. The eutrophic Red Latosol (ERL) had a higher aggregate stability thn the dystrophic Red Latosol (DRL), which may be attributed to the higher clay and OM content and the gibbsitic mineralogy of this soil class. The differentiated evolution of the studied Oxisols explains the wider range and lower variation coefficient and variability, for all properties studied in the eutrophic Red Latosol.

Aggregate stability as affected by short and long-term tillage systems and nutrient sources of a hapludox in southern Brazil

The ability of a soil to keep its structure under the erosive action of water is usually high in natural conditions and decreases under frequent and intensive cultivation. The effect of five tillage systems (NT = no-till; CP = chisel plowing and one secondary disking; CT = primary and two secondary distings; CTb = CT with crop residue burning; and CTr = CT with removal of crop residues from the field), combined with five nutrient sources (C = control, no nutrient application; MF = mineral fertilizers according to technical recommendations for each crop; PL = 5 Mg ha-1 y-1 fresh matter of poultry litter; CM = 60 m³ ha-1 y-1 slurry cattle manure; and SM = 40 m³ ha-1 y-1 slurry swine manure) on wet-aggregate stability was determined after nine years (four sampled soil layers) and on five sampling dates in the 10th year (two sampled soil layers) of the experiment. The size distribution of the air-dried aggregates was strongly affected by soil bulk density, and greater values of geometric mean diameter (GMD AD) found in some soil tillage or layer may be partly due to the higher compaction degree. After nine years, the GMD AD on the surface was greater in NT and CP compared to conventional tillage systems (CT, CTb and CTr), due to the higher organic matter content, as well as less soil mobilization. Aggregate stability in water, on the other hand, was affected by the low variation in previous gravimetric moisture of aggregates, which contributed to a high coefficient of variation of this attribute. The geometric mean diameter of water-stable aggregates (GMD WS) was highest in the 0.00-0.05 m layer in the NT system, in the layers 0.05-0.10 and 0.12-0.17 m in the CT, and values were intermediate in CP. The stability index (SI) in the surface layers was greater in treatments where crop residues were kept in the field (NT, CP and CT), which is associated with soil organic matter content. No differences were found in the layer 0.27-0.32 m. The effect of nutrient sources on GMD AD and GMD WS was small and did not affect SI.

Time of ruin in a risk model with generalized Erlang (n) interclaim times and a constant dividend barrier

In this paper we analyze the time of ruin in a risk process with the interclaim times being Erlang(n) distributed and a constant dividend barrier. We obtain an integro-differential equation for the Laplace Transform of the time of ruin. Explicit solutions for the moments of the time of ruin are presented when the individual claim amounts have a distribution with rational Laplace transform. Finally, some numerical results and a compare son with the classical risk model, with interclaim times following an exponential distribution, are given.

Non-constant discounting in finite horizon: The free terminal time case

This paper derives the HJB (Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman) equation for sophisticated agents in a finite horizon dynamic optimization problem with non-constant discounting in a continuous setting, by using a dynamic programming approach. A simple example is used in order to illustrate the applicability of this HJB equation, by suggesting a method for constructing the subgame perfect equilibrium solution to the problem.Conditions for the observational equivalence with an associated problem with constantdiscounting are analyzed. Special attention is paid to the case of free terminal time. Strotz¿s model (an eating cake problem of a nonrenewable resource with non-constant discounting) is revisited.

Buy-and-Hold Strategies and Comonotonic Approximations

[cat] En aquest article estudiem estratègies “comprar i mantenir” per a problemes d’optimitzar la riquesa final en un context multi-període. Com que la riquesa final és una suma de variables aleatòries dependents, on cadascuna d’aquestes correspon a una quantitat de capital que s’ha invertit en un actiu particular en una data determinada, en primer lloc considerem aproximacions que redueixen l’aleatorietat multivariant al cas univariant. A continuació, aquestes aproximacions es fan servir per determinar les estratègies “comprar i mantenir” que optimitzen, per a un nivell de probabilitat donat, el VaR i el CLTE de la funció de distribució de la riquesa final. Aquest article complementa el treball de Dhaene et al. (2005), on es van considerar estratègies de reequilibri constant.