Employment Protection, International Specialization, and Innovation

We develop a model to analyse the implications of firing costs on incentives for R&D and international specialization. The Key idea is paying the firing cost, the country with a rigid labor market will tend to produce relatively secure goods, at a late stage of their product life cycle. Under international trade, an international product cycle emerges where, roughly, new goods are first produced in the low firing cost country will specialize in 'secondary innovations', that is, improvements in existing goods, while the low firing cost country will more specialize in 'primary innovation', that is, invention of new goods.

International business cycles, financial markets and household production

This paper investigates the properties of an international real business cycle model with household production. We show that a model with disturbances to both market and household technologies reproduces the main regularities of the data and improves existing models in matching international consumption, investment and output correlations without irrealistic assumptions on the structure of international financial markets. Sensitivity analysis shows the robustness of the results to alternative specifications of the stochastic processes for the disturbances and to variations of unmeasured parameters within a reasonable range.

Two-sided learning in New Keynesian models: Dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank(two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economyhave asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. Weassume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct fordifferent sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model ofthe economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs througha statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study theshort-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularlywith respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learningcan generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behaviorof the variables in the model in a significant way. Our simulations do not convergeto a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source thatinvalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identifya novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communicationcan be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified.

International commodity prices, growth and the outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa

To learn more about the effect of economic conditions oncivil war, we examine whether Sub-Saharan civil wars aremore likely to start following downturns in the internationalprice of countries main export commodities. The data showa robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreakof civil wars. We also find that Sub-Saharan countries aremore likely to see civil wars following economic downturnsin their main OECD export destinations.

Stock returns, term structure, inflation and real activity: An international perspective

This paper analyses the empirical interdependences among assetreturns, real activity and inflation from a multicountry and internationalpoint of view. We find that nominal stock returns are significantly relatedto inflation only in the US, that the US term structure of interest ratespredicts both domestic and foreign inflation rates while foreign termstructures do not have this predictive power and that innovations in inflationand exchange rates induce insignificant responses of real and financialvariables. An interpretation of the dynamics and some policy implicationsof the results are provided.

Sources and propagation of international cycles: Common shocks or transmission?

This paper studies the generation and transmission of international cycles in a multi-country model with production and consumption interdependencies. Two sources of disturbance are considered and three channels of propagation are compared. In the short run the contemporaneous correlation of disturbances determines the main features of the transmission. In the medium run production interdependencies account for the transmission of technology shocks and consumption interdependencies account for the transmission of government shocks. Technology disturbances, which are mildly correlated across countries, are more successful than government expenditure disturbances in reproducing actual data. The model also accounts for the low cross country consumption correlations observed in the data.

Monetary policy in the Euro area: Lessons from 5 years of ECB and implications for Turkey

We examine monetary policy in the Euro area from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. We discuss what theory tells us the strategy of Central banks should be and contrasts it with the one employed by the ECB. We review accomplishments (and failures) of monetary policy in the Euro area and suggest changes that would increase the correlation between words and actions; streamline the understanding that markets have of the policy process; and anchor expectation formation more strongly. We examine the transmission of monetary policy shocks in the Euro area and in some potential member countries and try to infer the likely effects occurring when Turkey joins the EU first and the Euro area later. Much of the analysis here warns against having too high expectations of the economic gains that membership to the EU and Euro club will produce.

The structural dynamics of output growth and inflation: some international evidence

We examine the dynamics of output growth and inflation in the US, Euro area and UK using a structural time varying coefficient VAR. There are important similarities in structural inflation dynamics across countries; output growth dynamics differ. Swings in the magnitude of inflation and output growth volatilities and persistences are accounted for by a combination of three structural shocks. Changes over time in the structure of the economy are limited and permanent variations largely absent. Changes in the volatilities of structural shocks matter.

International capital flows and credit market imperfections: A tale of two frictions

The financial crisis of 2007-08 has underscored the importance of adverse selection in financialmarkets. This friction has been mostly neglected by macroeconomic models of financialimperfections, however, which have focused almost exclusively on the effects of limited pledgeability.In this paper, we fill this gap by developing a standard growth model with adverseselection. Our main results are that, by fostering unproductive investment, adverse selection:(i) leads to an increase in the economy s equilibrium interest rate, and; (ii) it generates a negativewedge between the marginal return to investment and the equilibrium interest rate. Underfinancial integration, we show how this translates into excessive capital inflows and endogenouscycles. We also extend our model to the more general case in which adverse selection and limitedpledgeability coexist. We conclude that both frictions complement one another and show thatlimited pledgeability exacerbates the effects of adverse selection.

Employment protection, international specialization and innovation

We develop a model to analyse the implications of firing costs on incentivesfor R&D and international specialization. The Key idea is paying the firingcost, the country with a rigid labor market will tend to produce relativelysecure goods, at a late stage of their product life cycle.Under international trade, an international product cycle emerges where,roughly, new goods are first produced in the low firing cost country willspecialize in 'secondary innovations', that is, improvements in existinggoods, while the low firing cost country will more specialize in 'primaryinnovation', that is, invention of new goods.

Exploring the implementation of a medication adherence programme by community pharmacists : a qualitative study

Background Medication adherence has been identified as an important factor for clinical success. Twenty-four Swiss community pharmacists participated in the implementation of an adherence support programme for patients with hypertension, diabetes mellitus and/or dyslipidemia. The programme combined tailored consultations with patients about medication taking (expected at an average of one intervention per month) and the delivery of each drug in an electronic monitoring system (MEMS6?). Objective To explore pharmacists' perceptions and experiences with implementation of the medication adherence programme and to clarify why only seven patients were enrolled in total. Setting Community pharmacies in French-speaking Switzerland. Method Individual in-depth interviews were audio-recorded, with 20 of the pharmacists who participated in the adherence programme. These were transcribed verbatim, coded and thematically analysed. Process quality was ensured by using an audit trail detailing the development of codes and themes; furthermore, each step in the coding and analysis was verified by a second, experienced qualitative researcher. Main outcome measure Community pharmacists' experiences and perceptions of the determining factors influencing the implementation of the adherence programme. Results Four major barriers were identified: (1) poor communication with patients resulting in insufficient promotion of the programme; (2) insufficient collaboration with physicians; (3) difficulty in integrating the programme into pharmacy organisation; and (4) insufficient pharmacist motivation. This was related to the remuneration perceived as insufficient and to the absence of clear strategic thinking about the pharmacist position in the health care system. One major facilitator of the programme's implementation was pre-existing collaboration with physicians. Conclusion A wide range of barriers was identified. The implementation of medication adherence programmes in Swiss community pharmacies would benefit from an extended training aimed at developing communication and change management skills. Individualised onsite support addressing relevant barriers would also be necessary throughout the implementation process.

International Olympic Committee consensus statement on thermoregulatory and altitude challenges for high-level athletes.

Challenging environmental conditions, including heat and humidity, cold, and altitude, pose particular risks to the health of Olympic and other high-level athletes. As a further commitment to athlete safety, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) Medical Commission convened a panel of experts to review the scientific evidence base, reach consensus, and underscore practical safety guidelines and new research priorities regarding the unique environmental challenges Olympic and other international-level athletes face. For non-aquatic events, external thermal load is dependent on ambient temperature, humidity, wind speed and solar radiation, while clothing and protective gear can measurably increase thermal strain and prompt premature fatigue. In swimmers, body heat loss is the direct result of convection at a rate that is proportional to the effective water velocity around the swimmer and the temperature difference between the skin and the water. Other cold exposure and conditions, such as during Alpine skiing, biathlon and other sliding sports, facilitate body heat transfer to the environment, potentially leading to hypothermia and/or frostbite; although metabolic heat production during these activities usually increases well above the rate of body heat loss, and protective clothing and limited exposure time in certain events reduces these clinical risks as well. Most athletic events are held at altitudes that pose little to no health risks; and training exposures are typically brief and well-tolerated. While these and other environment-related threats to performance and safety can be lessened or averted by implementing a variety of individual and event preventative measures, more research and evidence-based guidelines and recommendations are needed. In the mean time, the IOC Medical Commission and International Sport Federations have implemented new guidelines and taken additional steps to mitigate risk even further.

'Toxic' and 'Nontoxic': confirming critical terminology concepts and context for clear communication

If 'the dose makes the poison', and if the context of an exposure to a hazard shapes the risk as much as the innate character of the hazard itself, then what is 'toxic' and what is 'nontoxic'? This article is intended to help readers and communicators: anticipate that concepts such as 'toxic' and 'nontoxic' may have different meanings to different stakeholders in different contexts of general use, commerce, science, and the law; recognize specific situations in which terms and related information could potentially be misperceived or misinterpreted; evaluate the relevance, reliability, and other attributes of information for a given situation; control actions, assumptions, interpretations, conclusions, and decisions to avoid flaws and achieve a desired outcome; and confirm that the desired outcome has been achieved. To meet those objectives, we provide some examples of differing toxicology terminology concepts and contexts; a comprehensive decision-making framework for understanding and managing risk; along with a communication and education message and audience-planning matrix to support the involvement of all relevant stakeholders; a set of CLEAR-communication assessment criteria for use by both readers and communicators; example flaws in decision-making; a suite of three tools to assign relevance vs reliability, align know vs show, and refine perception vs reality aspects of information; and four steps to foster effective community involvement and support. The framework and supporting process are generally applicable to meeting any objective.

Transnational authority in the knowledge-based economy: Who sets the standards of ICT training and certification?

This article examines the extent and limits of nonstate forms of authority in international relations. It analyzes how the information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure for the tradability of services in a global knowledge-based economy relies on informal regulatory practices for the adjustment of ICT-related skills. By focusing on the challenge that highly volatile and short-lived cycles of demands for this type of knowledge pose for ensuring the right qualification of the labor force, the article explores how companies and associations provide training and certification programs as part of a growing market for educational services setting their own standards. The existing literature on non-conventional forms of authority in the global political economy has emphasized that the consent of actors, subject to informal rules and some form of state support, remains crucial for the effectiveness of those new forms of power. However, analyses based on a limited sample of actors tend toward a narrow understanding of the issues concerned and fail to fully explore the differentiated space in which non state authority is emerging. This article develops a three-dimensional analytical framework that brings together the scope of the issues involved, the range of nonstate actors concerned, and the spatial scope of their authority. The empirical findings highlight the limits of these new forms of nonstate authority and shed light on the role of the state and international governmental organizations in this new context.

Communication with terminal cancer patients in palliative care: are there differences between nurses and physicians?

The aim of this study was to find whether there were interprofessional differences in specific elements of communication with terminal cancer patients and decision-making processes that concern such patients. Given that interdisciplinary team work is one of the basic values in palliative care, if there are conflicting views between professions on such important issues it is most important to know about these and to understand them. A questionnaire utilized in an earlier survey of palliative care physicians and addressing their attitudes to and beliefs about specific elements of communication and decision making was sent to a sample of palliative care nurses working in the same regions, i.e. the French-speaking parts of Switzerland, Belgium and France. After a second mailing (reminder), 135 of the 163 questionnaires (83%) were returned. There was general agreement between nurses and physicians on questions dealing with perceptions of patients' knowledge of their diagnosis and stage of disease, patients' need for information, "do not resuscitate" orders and ethical principles in decision-making processes. Statistically significant, but small, differences between professional groups were only observed for a minority of the questions. Interprofessional differences in specific elements of communication with terminal cancer patients and decision-making processes affecting these patients were not so marked that they could be called "conflicting interprofessional views."