Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

Matching SOX: partner proteins and co-factors of the SOX family of transcriptional regulators

SOX transcription factors perform a remarkable variety of important roles in vertebrate development, either activating or repressing specific target genes through interaction with different partner proteins. Surprisingly, these interactions are often mediated by the conserved, DNA-binding HMG domain, raising questions as to how each factor's specificity is generated. We propose a model whereby non-HMG domains may influence partner protein selection and/or binding stability.

Evolution of additive and nonadditive genetic variance in development time along a cline in Drosophila serrata

Latitudinal clines provide natural systems that may allow the effect of natural selection on the genetic variance to be determined. Ten clinal populations of Drosophila serrata collected from the eastern coast of Australia were used to examine clinal patterns in the trait mean and genetic variance of the life-history trait egg-to-adult development time. Development time significantly lengthened from tropical areas to temperate areas. The additive genetic variance for development time in each population was not associated with latitude but was associated with the population mean development time. Additive genetic variance tended to be larger in populations with more extreme development times and appeared to be consistent with allele frequency change. In contrast, the nonadditive genetic variance was not associated with the population mean but was associated with latitude. Levels of nonadditive genetic variance were greatest in the region of the cline where the gradient in the change in mean was greatest, consistent with Barton's (1999) conjecture that the generation of linkage disequilibrium may become an important component of the genetic variance in systems with a spatially varying optimum.

Genetic constraints on the evolution of mate recognition under natural selection

Field populations of Drosophila serrata display reproductive character displacement in cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs) when sympatric with Drosophila birchii. We have previously shown that the naturally occurring pattern of reproductive character displacement can be experimentally replicated by exposing field allopatric populations of D. serrata to experimental sympatry with D. birchii. Here, we tested whether the repeated evolution of reproductive character displacement in natural and experimental populations was a consequence of genetic constraints on the evolution of CHCs. The genetic variance-covariance (G) matrices for CHCs were determined for populations of D. serrata that had evolved in either the presence or absence of D. birchii under field and experimental conditions. Natural selection on mate recognition under both field and experimental sympatric conditions increased the genetic variance in CHCs consistent with a response to selection based on rare alleles. A close association between G eigenstructure and the eigenstructure of the phenotypic divergence (D) matrix in natural and experimental populations suggested that G matrix eigenstructure may have determined the direction in which reproductive character displacement evolved during the reinforcement of mate recognition.

Testing the link between the latitudinal gradient in species richness and rates of molecular evolution

Numerous hypotheses have been proposed to explain latitudinal gradients in species richness, but all are subject to ongoing debate. Here we examine Rohde's (1978, 1992) hypothesis, which proposes that climatic conditions at low latitudes lead to elevated rates of speciation. This hypothesis predicts that rates of molecular evolution should increase towards lower latitudes, but this prediction has never been tested. We discuss potential links between rates of molecular evolution and latitudinal diversity gradients, and present the first test of latitudinal variation in rates of molecular evolution. Using 45 phylogenetically independent, latitudinally separated pairs of bird species and higher taxa, we compare rates of evolution of two mitochondrial genes and DNA-DNA hybridization distances. We find no support for an effect of latitude on rate of molecular evolution. This result casts doubt on the generality of a key component of Rohde's hypothesis linking climate and speciation.

Life cycle evolution in the Digenea: a new perspective from phylogeny

We use a new molecular phylogeny, developed from small and large subunit ribosomal RNA genes, to explore evolution of the digenean life cycle. Our approach is to map character states on the phylogeny and then use parsimony to infer how the character evolved. We conclude that, plesiomorphically, digenean miracidia hatched from eggs and penetrated gastropod first intermediate hosts externally. Fork-tailed cercariae were produced in rediae and emerged from the snail to be eaten directly by the teleost definitive host. These plesiomorphic characters are seen in extant Bivesiculidae. We infer that external encystment and the use of second intermediate hosts are derived from this behaviour and that second intermediate hosts have been adopted repeatedly. Tetrapod definitive hosts have also been adopted repeatedly. The new phylogeny proposes a basal dichotomy between 'Diplostomida' (Diplostomoidea, Schistosomatoidea and Brachylaimoidea) and 'Plagiorchiida' (all other digeneans). There is no evidence for coevolution between these clades and groups of gastropods. The most primitive life cycles are seen in basal Plagiorchiida. Basal Diplostomida have three-host life cycles and are associated with tetrapods. The blood flukes (Schistosomatoidea) are inferred to have derived their two-host life cycles by abbreviating three-host cycles. Diplostomida have no adult stages in fishes except by life cycle abbreviation. We present and test a radical hypothesis that the blood-fluke cycle is plesiomorphic within the Diplostomida.

Effect of Co addition on the lattice parameter, electrical conductivity and sintering of gadolinia-doped ceria

Co-sintering aid has been added to Ce1.9Gd0.1O1.95 (CGO) by treating a commercial powder with Co(NO3)(2) (COCGO), X-ray diffraction (XRD) measurements of lattice parameter indicated that the Co was located on the CGO particle surface after calcination at 650 degreesC. After heat treatment at temperatures above 650 degreesC, the room temperature lattice parameter of CGO was found to increase, indicating redistribution of the Gd. Compared to CGO, the lattice parameter of CGO + 2 cation% Co (2CoCGO) was lower for a given temperature (650-1100 degreesC), A.C. impedance revealed that the lattice conductivity of 2CoCGO was enhanced when densified at lower temperatures, Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) showed that, even after sintering for 4 h at 980 degreesC, most of the Co was located at grain boundaries. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Microstructural evolution of the Serido Belt, NE-Brazil: the effect of two tectonic events on development of c-axis preferred orientation in quartz

The polyphase evolution of the Serido Belt (NE-Brazil) includes D, crust formation at 2.3-2.1 Ga, D-2 thrust tectonics at 1.9 Ga and crustal reworking by D-3 strike-slip shear zones at 600 Ma. Microstructural investigations within mylonites associated with D-2 and D-3 events were used to constrain the tectono-thermal evolution of the belt. D-2 shear zones commenced at deeper crustal levels and high amphibolite facies conditions (600-650 degreesC) through grain boundary migration, subgrain rotation and operation of quartz Q-prism slip. Continued shearing and exhumation of the terrain forced the re-equilibration of high-T fabrics and the switching of slip systems from (c)-prism to positive and negative (a)-rhombs. During D-3, enhancement of ductility by dissipation of heat that came from syn-D-3 granites developed wide belts of amphibolite facies mylonites. Continued shearing, uplift and cooling of the region induced D-3 shear zones to act in ductile-brittle regimes, marked by fracturing and development of thinner belts of greenschist facies mylonites. During this event, switching from (a)-prism to a basal slip indicates a thermal path from 600 to 350 degreesC. Therefore, microstructures and quartz c-axis fabrics in polydeformed rocks from the Serido Belt preserve the record of two major events, which includes contrasting deformation mechanisms and thermal paths. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Escalation of Drug Use in Early-Onset Cannabis Users vs Co-twin Controls

Context Previous studies have reported that early initiation of cannabis (marijuana) use is a significant risk factor for other drug use and drug-related problems. Objective To examine whether the association between early cannabis use and subsequent progression to use of other drugs and drug abuse/dependence persists after controlling for genetic and shared environmental influences. Design Cross-sectional survey conducted in 1996-2000 among an Australian national volunteer sample of 311 young adult (median age, 30 years) monozygotic and dizygotic same-sex twin pairs discordant for early cannabis use (before age 17 years). Main Outcome Measures Self-reported subsequent nonmedical use of prescription sedatives, hallucinogens, cocaine/other stimulants, and opioids; abuse or dependence on these drugs (including cannabis abuse/dependence); and alcohol dependence. Results Individuals who used cannabis by age 17 years had odds of other drug use, alcohol dependence, and drug abuse/dependence that were 2.1 to 5.2 times higher than those of their co-twin, who did not use cannabis before age 17 years. Controlling for known risk factors (early-onset alcohol or tobacco use, parental conflict/separation, childhood sexual abuse, conduct disorder, major depression, and social anxiety) had only negligible effects on these results. These associations did not differ significantly between monozygotic and dizygotic twins. Conclusions Associations between early cannabis use and later drug use and abuse/dependence cannot solely be explained by common predisposing genetic or shared environmental factors. The association may arise from the effects of the peer and social context within which cannabis is used and obtained. In particular, early access to and use of cannabis may reduce perceived barriers against the use of other illegal drugs and provide access to these drugs.

Cross-border insolvency: Adoption of CLERP 8 as an evolution of Australian insolvency law

In 1997 the United Nations adopted the UNCITRAL Model Law on Cross-Border Insolvency and recommended that member states adopt it as part of domestic legislation. In 2002 Australia, an active participant in UNCITRAL's Working Group on Insolvency Law, announced that the next phase of the Commonwealth Government's Corporate Law Economic Reform Program would be a review of cross-border insolvency law. CLERP 8 seeks feedback on the proposed enactment of the Model Law by a separate Commonwealth statute. This article places such a development within the context of Australian cross-border insolvency law as it has evolved from early English bankruptcy legislation through case law arising from the banking collapses of the late 19th century to the more recent jurisprudence produced by corporate collapses of the late 1980s to early 1990s and current high-profile insolvencies.

Water sorption into poly[(2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate)-co-(1-vinyl-2-pyrrolidone]at 310 K

Poly(2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate) and copolymers of 2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate (HEMA) and 1-vinyl-2-pyrrolidone (VP) in the form of cylindrical samples (approximate to8mm x 20mm) have been prepared and the sorption of water into these cylinders has been studied by the mass-uptake methods and by magnetic-resonance imaging. The equilibrium water contents for the cylinders were found to vary systematically with the copolymer composition. Diffusion of water into the cylinders was found to follow Fickian behaviour for cylinders with high HEMA contents, with the diffusion coefficients obtained from mass-uptake studies dependent on the copolymer composition, varying from 1.7 x 10(-11) m(2) s(-1) for poly(HEMA) to 2.0 x 10(-11) m(2) s(-1) for poly(HEMA-co-VP) with a composition of 1:1. However, NMR-imaging studies showed that, while the profiles of the water diffusion fronts for cylinders with high HEMA contents were Fickian, that for the 1:1 copolymer was not and indicated that the mechanism was Case III. The polymers which were rich in VP were characterized by a water-sorption process which follows Case-III behaviour. (C) 2003 Society of Chemical Industry.