Risk factor analysis and spatiotemporal CART model of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia

Background: It remains unclear whether it is possible to develop a spatiotemporal epidemic prediction model for cryptosporidiosis disease. This paper examined the impact of social economic and weather factors on cryptosporidiosis and explored the possibility of developing such a model using social economic and weather data in Queensland, Australia. ----- ----- Methods: Data on weather variables, notified cryptosporidiosis cases and social economic factors in Queensland were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Three-stage spatiotemporal classification and regression tree (CART) models were developed to examine the association between social economic and weather factors and monthly incidence of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia. The spatiotemporal CART model was used for predicting the outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia. ----- ----- Results: The results of the classification tree model (with incidence rates defined as binary presence/absence) showed that there was an 87% chance of an occurrence of cryptosporidiosis in a local government area (LGA) if the socio-economic index for the area (SEIFA) exceeded 1021, while the results of regression tree model (based on non-zero incidence rates) show when SEIFA was between 892 and 945, and temperature exceeded 32°C, the relative risk (RR) of cryptosporidiosis was 3.9 (mean morbidity: 390.6/100,000, standard deviation (SD): 310.5), compared to monthly average incidence of cryptosporidiosis. When SEIFA was less than 892 the RR of cryptosporidiosis was 4.3 (mean morbidity: 426.8/100,000, SD: 319.2). A prediction map for the cryptosporidiosis outbreak was made according to the outputs of spatiotemporal CART models. ----- ----- Conclusions: The results of this study suggest that spatiotemporal CART models based on social economic and weather variables can be used for predicting the outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia.

A stochastic model for natural feature representation

This paper presents a robust stochastic model for the incorporation of natural features within data fusion algorithms. The representation combines Isomap, a non-linear manifold learning algorithm, with Expectation Maximization, a statistical learning scheme. The representation is computed offline and results in a non-linear, non-Gaussian likelihood model relating visual observations such as color and texture to the underlying visual states. The likelihood model can be used online to instantiate likelihoods corresponding to observed visual features in real-time. The likelihoods are expressed as a Gaussian Mixture Model so as to permit convenient integration within existing nonlinear filtering algorithms. The resulting compactness of the representation is especially suitable to decentralized sensor networks. Real visual data consisting of natural imagery acquired from an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle is used to demonstrate the versatility of the feature representation.

Empirical Bayes method in the study of traffic safety via heterogeneous negative multinomial model

In the study of traffic safety, expected crash frequencies across sites are generally estimated via the negative binomial model, assuming time invariant safety. Since the time invariant safety assumption may be invalid, Hauer (1997) proposed a modified empirical Bayes (EB) method. Despite the modification, no attempts have been made to examine the generalisable form of the marginal distribution resulting from the modified EB framework. Because the hyper-parameters needed to apply the modified EB method are not readily available, an assessment is lacking on how accurately the modified EB method estimates safety in the presence of the time variant safety and regression-to-the-mean (RTM) effects. This study derives the closed form marginal distribution, and reveals that the marginal distribution in the modified EB method is equivalent to the negative multinomial (NM) distribution, which is essentially the same as the likelihood function used in the random effects Poisson model. As a result, this study shows that the gamma posterior distribution from the multivariate Poisson-gamma mixture can be estimated using the NM model or the random effects Poisson model. This study also shows that the estimation errors from the modified EB method are systematically smaller than those from the comparison group method by simultaneously accounting for the RTM and time variant safety effects. Hence, the modified EB method via the NM model is a generalisable method for estimating safety in the presence of the time variant safety and the RTM effects.

Design of a model-generated repository as a service for USDL

SAP and its research partners have been developing a lan- guage for describing details of Services from various view- points called the Unified Service Description Language (USDL). At the time of writing, version 3.0 describes technical implementation aspects of services, as well as stakeholders, pricing, lifecycle, and availability. Work is also underway to address other business and legal aspects of services. This language is designed to be used in service portfolio management, with a repository of service descriptions being available to various stakeholders in an organisation to allow for service prioritisation, development, deployment and lifecycle management. The structure of the USDL metadata is specified using an object-oriented metamodel that conforms to UML, MOF and EMF Ecore. As such it is amenable to code gener-ation for implementations of repositories that store service description instances. Although Web services toolkits can be used to make these programming language objects available as a set of Web services, the practicalities of writing dis- tributed clients against over one hundred class definitions, containing several hundred attributes, will make for very large WSDL interfaces and highly inefficient “chatty” implementations. This paper gives the high-level design for a completely model-generated repository for any version of USDL (or any other data-only metamodel), which uses the Eclipse Modelling Framework’s Java code generation, along with several open source plugins to create a robust, transactional repository running in a Java application with a relational datastore. However, the repository exposes a generated WSDL interface at a coarse granularity, suitable for distributed client code and user-interface creation. It uses heuristics to drive code generation to bridge between the Web service and EMF granularities.

Model and prototype for querying multiple linked scientific datasets

Scientists need to transfer semantically similar queries across multiple heterogeneous linked datasets. These queries may require data from different locations and the results are not simple to combine due to differences between datasets. A query model was developed to make it simple to distribute queries across different datasets using RDF as the result format. The query model, based on the concept of publicly recognised namespaces for parts of each scientific dataset, was implemented with a configuration that includes a large number of current biological and chemical datasets. The configuration is flexible, providing the ability to transparently use both private and public datasets in any query. A prototype implementation of the model was used to resolve queries for the Bio2RDF website, including both Bio2RDF datasets and other datasets that do not follow the Bio2RDF URI conventions.

Theoretical model of user acceptance : in the view of measuring success in web personalization

This paper attempts to develop a theoretical acceptance model for measuring Web personalization success. Key factors impacting Web personalization acceptance are identified from a detailed literature review. The final model is then cast in a structural equation modeling (SEM) framework comprising nineteen manifest variables, which are grouped into three focal behaviors of Web users. These variables could provide a framework for better understanding of numerous factors that contribute to the success measures of Web personalization technology. Especially, those concerning the quality of personalized features and how personalized information through personalized Website can be delivered to the user. The interrelationship between success constructs is also explained. Empirical validations of this theoretical model are expected on future research.

Sharing with Creative Commons : a business model for content creators

Creative Commons (CC) is often seen as a social movement, dismissed by critics as a tool for hobbyists or academics who do not sell their creations to make a living. However, this paper argues that the licensing of creative copyright works under a CC licence does not preclude commercial gain. If used wisely, CC licences can be a useful tool for creators in their quest for commercial success. In particular, this paper argues that the sharing of creative works online under a CC licence allows creators to circumvent traditional distribution channels dominated by content intermediaries, whilst maintaining a level of control over their copyright works (i.e. explicitly reserving some rights but not all rights). This will be illustrated by case studies on how CC is being used by content creators and intermediaries respectively, and how successful their respective methods are in harnessing this tool.

An application of the CBBE model to assess brand loyalty for a long haul travel destination

In the past two decades there has been increasing interest in branding tourism destinations in an effort to meaningfully differentiate against a myriad of competing places that offer similar attractions and facilities. The academic literature relating to destination branding commenced only as recently as 1998, and there remains a dearth of empirical data that tests the effectiveness of brand campaigns, particularly in terms of enhancing destination loyalty. This paper reports the results of an investigation into destination brand loyalty for Australia as a long haul destination in a South American market. In spite of the high level of academic interest in the measurement of perceptions of destinations since the 1970s, few previous studies have examined perceptions held by South American consumers. Drawing on a model of consumer-based brand equity (CBBE), antecedents of destination brand loyalty was tested with data from a large Chilean sample of travelers, comprising a mix of previous visitors and non-visitors to Australia. Findings suggest that destination brand awareness, brand image, and brand value are positively related to brand loyalty for a long-haul destination. However, destination brand quality was not significantly related. The results also indicate that Australia is a more compelling destination brand for previous visitors compared to non-visitors.

Managing process model complexity via concrete syntax modifications

While Business Process Management (BPM) is an established discipline, the increased adoption of BPM technology in recent years has introduced new challenges. One challenge concerns dealing with the ever-growing complexity of business process models. Mechanisms for dealing with this complexity can be classified into two categories: 1) those that are solely concerned with the visual representation of the model and 2) those that change its inner structure. While significant attention is paid to the latter category in the BPM literature, this paper focuses on the former category. It presents a collection of patterns that generalize and conceptualize various existing mechanisms to change the visual representation of a process model. Next, it provides a detailed analysis of the degree of support for these patterns in a number of state-of-the-art languages and tools. This paper concludes with the results of a usability evaluation of the patterns conducted with BPM practitioners.

Maternal administration of erythromycin fails to eradicate intrauterine ureaplasma infection in an ovine model

Erythromycin is the standard antibiotic used for treatment of Ureaplasma species during 3 pregnancy; however, maternally administered erythromycin may be ineffective at eliminating 4 intra-amniotic ureaplasma infections. We asked if erythromycin would eradicate intra-amniotic 5 ureaplasma infections in pregnant sheep. At 50 days of gestation (d, term=150d) pregnant ewes 6 received intra-amniotic injections of erythromycin-sensitive U. parvum serovar 3 (n=16) or 10B 7 medium (n=16). At 100d, amniocentesis was performed; five fetal losses (ureaplasma group: 8 n=4; 10B group: n=1) had occurred by this time. Remaining ewes were allocated into treatment 9 subgroups: medium only (M, n=7); medium and erythromycin (M/E, n=8); ureaplasma only (Up, 10 n=6) or ureaplasma and erythromycin (Up/E, n=6). Erythromycin was administered intra11 muscularly (500 mg), eight-hourly for four days (100d-104d). Amniotic fluid samples were 12 collected at 105d. At 125d preterm fetuses were surgically delivered and specimens were 13 collected for culture and histology. Erythromycin was quantified in amniotic fluid by liquid 14 chromatography-mass spectrometry. Ureaplasmas were isolated from the amniotic fluid, 15 chorioamnion and fetal lung of animals from the Up and Up/E groups, however, the numbers of 16 U. parvum recovered were not different between these groups. Inflammation in the 17 chorioamnion, cord and fetal lung was increased in ureaplasma-exposed animals compared to 18 controls, but was not different between the Up and Up/E groups. Erythromycin was detected in 19 amniotic fluid samples, although concentrations were low (<10-76 ng/mL). This study 20 demonstrates that maternally administered erythromycin does not eradicate chronic, intra- amniotic ureaplasma infections or improve fetal outcomes in an ovine model, potentially due to 22 the poor placental passage of erythromycin.

The 3D model of l(IT)eracy and the English curriculum

The field of literacy studies has always been challenged by the changing technologies that humans have used to express, represent and communicate their feelings, ideas, understandings and knowledge. However, while the written word has remained central to literacy processes over a long period, it is generally accepted that there have been significant changes to what constitutes ‘literate’ practice. In particular, the status of the printed word has been challenged by the increasing dominance of the image, along with the multimodal meaning-making systems facilitated by digital media. For example, Gunther Kress and other members of the New London Group have argued that the second half of the twentieth century saw a significant cultural shift from the linguistic to the visual as the dominant semiotic mode. This in turn, they suggest, was accompanied by a cultural shift ‘from page to screen’ as a dominant space of representation (e.g. Cope & Kalantzis, 2000; Kress, 2003; New London Group, 1996). In a similar vein, Bill Green has noted that we have witnessed a shift from the regime of the print apparatus to a regime of the digital electronic apparatus (Lankshear, Snyder and Green, 2000). For these reasons, the field of literacy education has been challenged to find new ways to conceptualise what is meant by ‘literacy’ in the twenty first century and to rethink the conditions under which children might best be taught to be fully literate so that they can operate with agency in today’s world.

Socially adaptable housing new housing model for families living with disability

In Australia as far back as 1993, researchers such as Baladin and Chapmen reported that "18% of the total Australian population and 51% of the population over 60 years of age were identified as having a disability" (2001; p38.2). Statistics such as these are not by any means astonishing, even to members of the general public, and it is widely understood that these are only to increase significantly in our near future. What is particularly surprising however is, in the face of such statistics, the lack of new and creative responses to this demographic shift, particularly by the architecture and construction industries. The common response from a range of sectors seems to be the repetition of a series of models which offer limited, and often undesirable, housing options. It is this against this backdrop, characterized by a lack of original options from mainstream practitioners and relevant government bodies, that the need has arisen to develop alternative models at grass-roots level. This paper reports primarily on the work of one group comprising a not-for-profit organization, a pro-bono design practice group and a local university working together to design a more holistic, emotionally sustainable independent living model of housing for families where a member of the family has a disability. This approach recognizes the limitations of universal design in that it often does not " ... meet all the housing needs that arise for people with moderate to severe disabilities" (Scotts, Margie et al, 2007; p.17). It is hoped that by examining the work of such a collective which is not driven by profit or policy, but rather born with the aim to address first and foremost individual and community need, that better insight can be gained into the real requirements of individuals and families as well as open up a view to new ways of fulfilling them.

Development of a software model of a heavy vehicle suspension for research

A Simulink Matlab control system of a heavy vehicle suspension has been developed. The aim of the exercise presented in this paper was to develop a Simulink Matlab control system of a heavy vehicle suspension. The objective facilitated by this outcome was the use of a working model of a heavy vehicle (HV) suspension that could be used for future research. A working computer model is easier and cheaper to re-configure than a HV axle group installed on a truck; it presents less risk should something go wrong and allows more scope for variation and sensitivity analysis before embarking on further "real-world" testing. Empirical data recorded as the input and output signals of a heavy vehicle (HV) suspension were used to develop the parameters for computer simulation of a linear time invariant system described by a second-order differential equation of the form: (i.e. a "2nd-order" system). Using the empirical data as an input to the computer model allowed validation of its output compared with the empirical data. The errors ranged from less than 1% to approximately 3% for any parameter, when comparing like-for-like inputs and outputs. The model is presented along with the results of the validation. This model will be used in future research in the QUT/Main Roads project Heavy vehicle suspensions – testing and analysis, particularly so for a theoretical model of a multi-axle HV suspension with varying values of dynamic load sharing. Allowance will need to be made for the errors noted when using the computer models in this future work.

Mechanical Behavior of Articular Cartilage After Osteochondral Autograft Transfer in an Ovine Model

BACKGROUND: Grafting of autologous hyaline cartilage and bone for articular cartilage repair is a well-accepted technique. Although encouraging midterm clinical results have been reported, no information on the mechanical competence of the transplanted joint surface is available. HYPOTHESIS: The mechanical competence of osteochondral autografts is maintained after transplantation. STUDY DESIGN: Controlled laboratory study. METHODS: Osteochondral defects were filled with autografts (7.45 mm in diameter) in one femoral condyle in 12 mature sheep. The ipsilateral femoral condyle served as the donor site, and the resulting defect (8.3 mm in diameter) was left empty. The repair response was examined after 3 and 6 months with mechanical and histologic assessment and histomorphometric techniques. RESULTS: Good surface congruity and plug placement was achieved. The Young modulus of the grafted cartilage significantly dropped to 57.5% of healthy tissue after 3 months (P < .05) but then recovered to 82.2% after 6 months. The aggregate and dynamic moduli behaved similarly. The graft edges showed fibrillation and, in some cases (4 of 6), hypercellularity and chondrocyte clustering. Subchondral bone sclerosis was observed in 8 of 12 cases, and the amount of mineralized bone in the graft area increased from 40% to 61%. CONCLUSIONS: The mechanical quality of transplanted cartilage varies considerably over a short period of time, potentially reflecting both degenerative and regenerative processes, while histologically signs of both cartilage and bone degeneration occur. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Both the mechanically degenerative and restorative processes illustrate the complex progression of regeneration after osteochondral transplantation. The histologic evidence raises doubts as to the long-term durability of the osteochondral repair.

CYR61 (CCN1) protein expression during fracture healing in an ovine tibial model and its relation to the mechanical fixation stability

The formation of new blood vessels is a prerequisite for bone healing. CYR61 (CCN1), an extracellular matrix-associated signaling protein, is a potent stimulator of angiogenesis and mesenchymal stem cell expansion and differentiation. A recent study showed that CYR61 is expressed during fracture healing and suggested that CYR61 plays a significant role in cartilage and bone formation. The hypothesis of the present study was that decreased fixation stability, which leads to a delay in healing, would lead to reduced CYR61 protein expression in fracture callus. The aim of the study was to quantitatively analyze CYR61 protein expression, vascularization, and tissue differentiation in the osteotomy gap and relate to the mechanical fixation stability during the course of healing. A mid-shaft osteotomy of the tibia was performed in two groups of sheep and stabilized with either a rigid or semirigid external fixator, each allowing different amounts of interfragmentary movement. The sheep were sacrificed at 2, 3, 6, and 9 weeks postoperatively. The tibiae were tested biomechanically and histological sections from the callus were analyzed immunohistochemically with regard to CYR61 protein expression and vascularization. Expression of CYR61 protein was upregulated at the early phase of fracture healing (2 weeks), decreasing over the healing time. Decreased fixation stability was associated with a reduced upregulation of the CYR61 protein expression and a reduced vascularization at 2 weeks leading to a slower healing. The maximum cartilage callus fraction in both groups was reached at 3 weeks. However, the semirigid fixator group showed a significantly lower CYR61 immunoreactivity in cartilage than the rigid fixator group at this time point. The fraction of cartilage in the semirigid fixator group was not replaced by bone as quickly as in the rigid fixator group leading to an inferior histological and mechanical callus quality at 6 weeks and therefore to a slower healing. The results supply further evidence that CYR61 may serve as an important regulator of bone healing.