Land-use and land-cover change in Atlantic Forest landscapes

The Atlantic Forest is one of the most threatened tropical biomes, with much of the standing forest in small (less than 50 ha), disturbed and isolated patches. The pattern of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) which has resulted in this critical scenario has not yet been fully investigated. Here, we describe the LULCC in three Atlantic Forest fragmented landscapes (Sao Paulo, Brazil) between 1960-1980s and 1980-2000s. The three studied landscapes differ in the current proportion of forest cover, having 10%, 30% and 50% respectively. Between the 1960s and 1980s. forest cover of two landscapes was reduced while the forest cover in the third landscape increased slightly. The opposite trend was observed between the 1980s and 2000s: forest regeneration was greater than deforestation at the landscapes with 10% and 50% of forest cover and, as a consequence, forest cover increased. By contrast, the percentage of forest cover at the landscape with 30% of forest cover was drastically reduced between the 1980s and 2000s. LULCC deviated from a random trajectory, were not constant through time in two study landscapes and were not constant across space in a given time period. This landscape dynamism in single locations over small temporal scales is a key factor to be considered in models of LULCC to accurately simulate future changes for the Atlantic Forest. In general, forest patches became more isolated when deforestation was greater than forest regeneration and became more connected when forest regeneration was greater than deforestation. As a result of the dynamic experienced by the study landscapes, individual forest patches currently consist of a mosaic of different forest age classes which is likely to impact bio-diversity. Furthermore, landscape dynamics suggests the beginning of a forest transition in some Atlantic Forest regions, what could be of great importance for biodiversity conservation due to the potential effects of young secondary forests in reducing forest isolation and maintaining a significant amount of the original biodiversity. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rabies in southeast Brazil: a change in the epidemiological pattern

This epidemiological study was conducted using antigenic and genetic characterisation of rabies virus isolates obtained from different animal species in the southeast of Brazil from 1993 to 2007. An alteration in the epidemiological profile was observed. One hundred two samples were tested using a panel of eight monoclonal antibodies, and 94 were genetically characterised by sequencing the nucleoprotein gene. From 1993 to 1997, antigenic variant 2 (AgV-2), related to a rabies virus maintained in dog populations, was responsible for rabies cases in dogs, cats, cattle and horses. Antigenic variant 3 (AgV-3), associated with Desmodus rotundus, was detected in a few cattle samples from rural areas. From 1998 to 2007, rabies virus was detected in bats and urban pets, and four distinct variants were identified. A nucleotide similarity analysis resulted in two primary groups comprising the dog and bat antigenic variants and showing the distinct endemic cycles maintained in the different animal species in this region.

Rates of Change in the Visual Field and Optic Disc in Patients with Distinct Patterns of Glaucomatous Optic Disc Damage

Purpose: To investigate the rate of visual field and optic disc change in patients with distinct patterns of glaucomatous optic disc damage. Design: Prospective longitudinal study. Participants: A total of 131 patients with open-angle glaucoma with focal (n = 45), diffuse (n = 42), and sclerotic (n = 44) optic disc damage. Methods: Patients were examined every 4 months with standard automated perimetry (SAP, SITA Standard, 24-2 test, Humphrey Field Analyzer, Carl Zeiss Meditec, Dublin, CA) and confocal scanning laser tomography (CSLT, Heidelberg Retina Tomograph, Heidelberg Engineering GmbH, Heidelberg, Germany) for a period of 4 years. During this time, patients were treated according to a predefined protocol to achieve a target intraocular pressure (IOP). Rates of change were estimated by robust linear regression of visual field mean deviation (MD) and global optic disc neuroretinal rim area with follow-up time. Main Outcome Measures: Rates of change in MD and rim area. Results: Rates of visual field change in patients with focal optic disc damage (mean -0.34, standard deviation [SD] 0.69 dB/year) were faster than in patients with sclerotic (mean - 0.14, SD 0.77 dB/year) and diffuse (mean + 0.01, SD 0.37 dB/year) optic disc damage (P = 0.003, Kruskal-Wallis). Rates of optic disc change in patients with focal optic disc damage (mean - 11.70, SD 25.5 x 10(-3) mm(2)/year) were faster than in patients with diffuse (mean -9.16, SD 14.9 x 10(-3) mm(2)/year) and sclerotic (mean -0.45, SD 20.6 x 10(-3) mm(2)/year) optic disc damage, although the differences were not statistically significant (P = 0.11). Absolute IOP reduction from untreated levels was similar among the groups (P = 0.59). Conclusions: Patients with focal optic disc damage had faster rates of visual field change and a tendency toward faster rates of optic disc deterioration when compared with patients with diffuse and sclerotic optic disc damage, despite similar IOP reductions during follow-up. Financial Disclosure(s): Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found after the references. Ophthalmology 2012; 119: 294-303 (C) 2012 by the American Academy of Ophthalmology.

Pollination services at risk: Bee habitats will decrease owing to climate change in Brazil

Native bees are important providers of pollination services, but there are cumulative evidences of their decline. Global changes such as habitat losses, invasions of exotic species and climate change have been suggested as the main causes of the decline of pollinators. In this study, the influence of climate change on the distribution of 10 species of Brazilian bees was estimated with species distribution modelling. We used Maxent algorithm (maximum entropy) and two different scenarios, an optimistic and a pessimistic, to the years 2050 and 2080. We also evaluated the percentage reduction of species habitat based on the future scenarios of climate change through Geographic Information System (GIS). Results showed that the total area of suitable habitats decreased for all species but one under the different future scenarios. The greatest reductions in habitat area were found for Melipona bicolor bicolor and Melipona scutellaris, which occur predominantly in areas related originally to Atlantic Moist Forest. The species analysed have been reported to be pollinators of some regional crops and the consequence of their decrease for these crops needs further clarification. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Change in modal parameters of cracked single-edge notched plain concrete Beams

[EN]The aim of this work is looking into the possibility of capturing the change in the modal properties (natural frequencies, modal shapes and modal damping ratio) of plain concrete elements due to the presence of cracked areas by using a simple continuum damage zone numerical model.

Continuity and Change in New Products

This doctoral dissertation is triggered by an emergent problem: how can firms reinvent themselves? Continuity- and change-oriented decisions fundamentally shape overtime the activities and potential revenues of organizations and other adaptive systems, but both types of actions draw upon limited resources and rely on different organizational routines and capabilities. Most organizations appear to have difficulties in making tradeoffs, so that it is easier to overinvest in one of them than to successfully achieve a mixture of both. Nevertheless, theory and empirical evidence suggest that too little of either may reduce performance, indicating a need to learn more about how organizations reconcile these tensions. In the first paper, I moved from the consideration that rapid changes in competitive environments increasingly require firms to be “ambidextrous” implementing organizational mechanisms and structures that allow continuity- and change-oriented activities to be engaged at the same time. More specifically, I show that continuity- and change-related decisions can’t be confined either inside or outside the firm, but span overtime across distinct decision domains located within and beyond the organizational boundaries. Reconciling static and dynamic perspectives of ambidexterity, I conceptualize a firm’s strategy as a bundle of decisions about product attributes and components of the production team, proposing a multidimensional and dynamic model of structural ambidexterity that explains why and how firms could manage conflicting pressures for continuity and change in the context of new products. In the second study I note how rigorous systematic evidence documenting the success of ambidextrous organizations is lacking, and there has been very little investigation of how firms deal with continuity and change in new products. How to manage the transition form a successful product to another? What to change and what to keep? Incumbents that deal with series of products over time need to update their offerings in order to have the most relevant attributes to prospect clients without disappoint the current customer base. They need to both match and anticipate consumers’ preferences, blending something old with something new to satisfy the current demand and enlarge the herd by appealing to newer audiences. This paper contributes to strategic renewal and ambidexterity-related research with the first empirically assessment of a positive consumer response to ambidexterity in new products. Also, this study provides a practical method to monitor overtime the degree to which a brand or a firm is continuity- or change- oriented and evaluate different strategy profiles across two decision domains that play a pivotal role in new products: product attributes and components of the production team.

Climate change in Libya and desertification of Jifara Plain

The study was arranged to manifest its objectives through preceding it with an intro-duction. Particular attention was paid in the second part to detect the physical settings of the study area, together with an attempt to show the climatic characteristics in Libya. In the third part, observed temporal and spatial climate change in Libya was investigated through the trends of temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and cloud amount over the peri-ods (1946-2000), (1946-1975), and (1976-2000), comparing the results with the global scales. The forth part detected the natural and human causes of climate change concentrat-ing on the greenhouse effect. The potential impacts of climate change on Libya were ex-amined in the fifth chapter. As a case study, desertification of Jifara Plain was studied in the sixth part. In the seventh chapter, projections and mitigations of climate change and desertification were discussed. Ultimately, the main results and recommendations of the study were summarized. In order to carry through the objectives outlined above, the following methods and approaches were used: a simple linear regression analysis was computed to detect the trends of climatic parameters over time; a trend test based on a trend-to-noise-ratio was applied for detecting linear or non-linear trends; the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test for trend was used to reveal the behavior of the trends and their significance; PCA was applied to construct the all-Libya climatic parameters trends; aridity index after Walter-Lieth was shown for computing humid respectively arid months in Libya; correlation coefficient, (after Pearson) for detecting the teleconnection between sun spot numbers, NAOI, SOI, GHGs, and global warming, climate changes in Libya; aridity index, after De Martonne, to elaborate the trends of aridity in Jifara Plain; Geographical Information System and Re-mote Sensing techniques were applied to clarify the illustrations and to monitor desertifi-cation of Jifara Plain using the available satellite images MSS, TM, ETM+ and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). The results are explained by 88 tables, 96 figures and 10 photos. Temporal and spatial temperature changes in Libya indicated remarkably different an-nual and seasonal trends over the long observation period 1946-2000 and the short obser-vation periods 1946-1975 and 1976-2000. Trends of mean annual temperature were posi-tive at all study stations except at one from 1946-2000, negative trends prevailed at most stations from 1946-1975, while strongly positive trends were computed at all study stations from 1976-2000 corresponding with the global warming trend. Positive trends of mean minimum temperatures were observed at all reference stations from 1946-2000 and 1976-2000, while negative trends prevailed at most stations over the period 1946-1975. For mean maximum temperature, positive trends were shown from 1946-2000 and from 1976-2000 at most stations, while most trends were negative from 1946-1975. Minimum tem-peratures increased at nearly more than twice the rate of maximum temperatures at most stations. In respect of seasonal temperature, warming mostly occurred in summer and au-tumn in contrast to the global observations identifying warming mostly in winter and spring in both study periods. Precipitation across Libya is characterized by scanty and sporadically totals, as well as high intensities and very high spatial and temporal variabilities. From 1946-2000, large inter-annual and intra-annual variabilities were observed. Positive trends of annual precipi-tation totals have been observed from 1946-2000, negative trends from 1976-2000 at most stations. Variabilities of seasonal precipitation over Libya are more strikingly experienced from 1976-2000 than from 1951-1975 indicating a growing magnitude of climate change in more recent times. Negative trends of mean annual relative humidity were computed at eight stations, while positive trends prevailed at seven stations from 1946-2000. For the short observation period 1976-2000, positive trends were computed at most stations. Annual cloud amount totals decreased at most study stations in Libya over both long and short periods. Re-markably large spatial variations of climate changes were observed from north to south over Libya. Causes of climate change were discussed showing high correlation between tempera-ture increasing over Libya and CO2 emissions; weakly positive correlation between pre-cipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation index; negative correlation between temperature and sunspot numbers; negative correlation between precipitation over Libya and Southern Oscillation Index. The years 1992 and 1993 were shown as the coldest in the 1990s result-ing from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo, 1991. Libya is affected by climate change in many ways, in particular, crop production and food security, water resources, human health, population settlement and biodiversity. But the effects of climate change depend on its magnitude and the rate with which it occurs. Jifara Plain, located in northwestern Libya, has been seriously exposed to desertifica-tion as a result of climate change, landforms, overgrazing, over-cultivation and population growth. Soils have been degraded, vegetation cover disappeared and the groundwater wells were getting dry in many parts. The effect of desertification on Jifara Plain appears through reducing soil fertility and crop productivity, leading to long-term declines in agri-cultural yields, livestock yields, plant standing biomass, and plant biodiversity. Desertifi-cation has also significant implications on livestock industry and the national economy. Desertification accelerates migration from rural and nomadic areas to urban areas as the land cannot support the original inhabitants. In the absence of major shifts in policy, economic growth, energy prices, and con-sumer trends, climate change in Libya and desertification of Jifara Plain are expected to continue in the future. Libya cooperated with United Nations and other international organizations. It has signed and ratified a number of international and regional agreements which effectively established a policy framework for actions to mitigate climate change and combat deserti-fication. Libya has implemented several laws and legislative acts, with a number of ancil-lary and supplementary rules to regulate. Despite the current efforts and ongoing projects being undertaken in Libya in the field of climate change and desertification, urgent actions and projects are needed to mitigate climate change and combat desertification in the near future.

Non-Gaussianities from a sudden change in the inflaton speed of sound

Il concetto di inflazione e' stato introdotto nei primi anni ’80 per risolvere alcuni problemi del modello cosmologico standard, quali quello dell’orizzonte e quello della piattezza. Le predizioni dei piu' semplici modelli inflazionari sono in buon accordo con le osservazioni cosmologiche piu'recenti, che confermano sezioni spaziali piatte e uno spettro di fluttuazioni primordiali con statistica vicina a quella gaussiana. I piu' recenti dati di Planck, pur in ottimo accordo con una semplice legge di potenza per lo spettro a scale k > 0.08 Mpc−1 , sembrano indicare possibili devi- azioni a scale maggiori, seppur non a un livello statisticamente significativo a causa della varianza cosmica. Queste deviazioni nello spettro possono essere spiegate da modelli inflazionari che includono una violazione della condizione di lento rotolamento (slow-roll ) e che hanno precise predizioni per lo spettro. Per uno dei primi modelli, caratterizzato da una discontinuita' nella derivata prima del potenziale proposto da Starobinsky, lo spettro ed il bispettro delle fluttuazioni primordiali sono noti analiticamente. In questa tesi estenderemo tale modello a termini cinetici non standard, calcolandone analiticamente il bispettro e confrontando i risultati ottenuti con quanto presente in letteratura. In particolare, l’introduzione di un termine cinetico non standard permettera' di ottenere una velocita' del suono per l’inflatone non banale, che consentira' di estendere i risultati noti, riguardanti il bispettro, per questo modello. Innanzitutto studieremo le correzioni al bispettro noto in letteratura dovute al fatto che in questo caso la velocita' del suono e' una funzione dipendente dal tempo; successivamente, cercheremo di calcolare analiticamente un ulteriore contributo al bispettro proporzionale alla derivata prima della velocita' del suono (che per il modello originale e' nullo).